June market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a link to the NWMLS press release (not yet live as of this posting).
Here’s a look at pending and closed sales over the last year and a half:
You’ll notice that there’s about a two month delay between when pending sales make a big move and we see the corresponding move in closed sales. In other words, look for closed sales to fall through the floor in July.
Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):
| June 2010 | Number | MOM | YOY | Buyers | Sellers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 9,873 | +4.0% | +2.3% |  |
 |
| Closed Sales | 1,879 | +6.4% | +13.5% | |
|
| SAAS (?) | 1.67 | +16.9% | -19.0% | |
|
| Pending Sales | 1,804 | +0.8% | -26.3% | |
|
| Months of Supply | 5.47 | +3.1% | +38.7% | |
|
| Median Price* | $383,000 | +1.1% | -3.0% | |
|
Just as we’ve been predicting for the last few months, June saw the total number of listings inch above the highest level set in 2009 (9,857 in July). So at least there’s a lot to choose from for whatever few buyers there still are out there post tax credit.
Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet, and here’s a copy in Excel 2003 format.
Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:
Just as we suggested last month, there was a slight increase from May to June, keeping us in YOY positive territory for one more month before we drop down to about 1,300 in July.
Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.
And just like that, inventory is YOY positive.
Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the “demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.
After crossing in early 2009, it looks like the sales and inventory YOY lines might be set to cross again as soon as this month.
Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:
Interestingly, despite the rush to buy-a-home-any-home to claim the $8,000 cash prize, median prices did not rise as much as they did last year between May and June, thus pushing the YOY chart back down into negative territory.
And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.
Nothing like a good vintage 2005.
I’ll post the news blurbs from the Times and P-I whenever they get around to writing their reports.
[Update: Here they are.]
Seattle Times: King County pending home sales slide from year-ago level
Seattle P-I: The housing market also was cold in June
Check back Wednesday for the full reporting roundup.
I’ve got a bad feeling about the economy. Housing could get really ugly this fall.
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Funny quote in the Puget Sound Business Journal’s blurb:
Personally, I think it’s the sellers that are stuck.
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By joe dirt @ 1:
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I’m surprised we’re actually above 2005 prices. But I guess that’s countywide, including the Upper Queen Annes, etc, that haven’t budged all that much, so when you look at South King County it looks a lot more devastating. I’d say that some of MLS area 360 is more like in 2003-2004 territory.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 4 – Indeed. South King is not doing so hot. Probably thanks at least partly to the soaring distressed inventory, as described in the previous post.
Skyway’s (area 360) June 2010 median of $241,000 is 10% below June 2005, coming in somewhere between the medians of 2003 and 2004.
Federal Way (area 110) is 7.5% below 2005 prices, just barely over June 2004′s median.
Kent (area 330) at a median of $258,438 is also 10% below June 2005.
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In-city inventory is generally flat to down, I think this is a demonstration of the pond shrinking from the edges. You can look at the YOY trend in redfin.
Queen Anne: -30%
Madison Park: -12%
Capitol Hill: -20%
Magnolia: +2%
Green Lake: -46%
Ballard: -5%
Laurelhurst/Sandpoint: -28%
Wallingford: -6%
Not trying to cherry pick. Those are the only places I cared about/checked and most showed as down (at least as reported by redfin)
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By deejayoh @ 6:
Yup. I’m sticking with my analysis from back in February:
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RE: deejayoh @ 6 –
It’s been my impression that other metro areas have followed a similar trend of the outlying suburbs taking the brunt of the price cuts.
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Actually, checking a bit further – it looks like most cities are down – issaquah, kirkland, bellevue, federal way, kent all showed declining inventory YoY. I know it’s only redfin – but to honest, I have a little more faith in them to give apples:apples YOY comparisons vs. the NWMLS. Maybe something still to do with the change in active listing definition?
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RE: deejayoh @ 9 – Which number are you looking at on their stats pages? The table below the interactive chart is still showing May numbers, and the interactive chart is a 90-day rolling average. So we can’t really do a direct comparison between NWMLS and Redfin June data just yet as far as I can tell.
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RE: The Tim @ 10 – Market trends page – looks like it is real time?
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RE: deejayoh @ 11 – As in this page for Queen Anne?
The chart on there uses 90-day rolling averages. Methodology.
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Seattle metro must adjust downward much more it’s become very over priced due to not adjusting as other metro areas have. Moved to Phoenix metro area 10 moths ago due to wife’s employer and travel back to Seattle twice a month for my business and I am amazed at the across the board high prices. Traveling extensively in the U.S. over the last several years and I just do not seeing the benefit to the premium…. Major cities in Texas are just a huge bargain in comparison… Big trouble ahead for Puget Sound…
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By The Tim @ 12:
It looks to me like the calculated figures use a 90-day rolling (e.g. $/sqft), but not inventory.
# For Sale: the number of homes that were for sale in the week ending on the date shown on the graph.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 4:
One thing–south King County has a lot more inventory now than back in 2005, and by inventory I mean total houses, not just those on the market. Because of that you would expect it to fall more than areas that were already built out in 2005.
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It’s pretty hard to attribute all of this to the tax credit, when the mean at $485,597 was the highest it’s been since December 2008. First time buyers don’t tend to drive the mean up.
Also, the total dollar volume of SFR in King County is the highest it’s been since October, 2007. So the excise tax collections have been good (not to mention agent paychecks).
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13. maya » Jul 6, 2010 at 2:30 pm
Maybe your next comparison stops should be outer downtown Detroit and lovely Nation Unemployment leading and near Champion underwater mortgageholder Las Vegas (current temp 104). Lotsa Great Amazing Bargains in comparison there too…. Just bring your own weapons, plenty of Ammo and your health insurance papers.
Jeezus, also comparing Texas and Arizona to PS?
Last time I checked, Puget Sound wasn’t near the Mexican Border..
Never Mind, I give up. You’re Right.
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RE: 3rd Generation @ 17 – Also, I think Texas has rather high real estate taxes, which has the effect of keeping prices down. And any city in the state is in the same state as El Paso, which has to depress prices greatly! ;-)
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 18:
Hard to dump on a state that has El Paso when you’re in the same state as Yakima. :)
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RE: BillE @ 19 – LOL, but El Paso is the worst place I’ve ever been to, and I’ve been to a lot of places.
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There’s a place worse than Yakima?
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RE: BillE @ 21 – yeah,see Avatar!
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Yakima isn’t really that bad.
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Detroit?
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As someone who has been to nearly every major US city, many are comparable to Seattle in terms of quality of life at a fraction of the cost. I agree El Paso would not be a desirable place to live, but its quite misleading to use that as an example of living in Texas. Austin, Keller, Fort Worth to name a few, are great places to live at half the median house price of Seattle. Why someone would pay twice as much for a house in Seattle vs Austin is beyond me, unless you have extended family living in Seattle that you can’t be away from.
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According to this MSNBC article, if you want to go cheap, live in Pakistan. If you want to go cheap but stay in the US, go to NC.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38048141/ns/business-bloomberg_businessweek/
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Inventory in Real Estate is just a game. You are talking about millions of people with individual houses at a variety of equity levels.
Every property on earth is for sale.
Then you count in the “agents” who represent those properties, and there are thousands.
How is there a buyers, or sellers, market when there are always X number of ready, willing, and able buyers?
What makes more sense is for buyers to register with an agent to find them the house they are willing to buy then getting a seller to agree to a price.
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By David Losh @ 27:
Right. Maybe we should include in the count the Zillow “Make Me Move” units. ;-)
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We absolutely do count those.
You’re now into why Zillow has a market share. It based it’s profitability on selling mortgages for say refinance, but it’s data is much more realistic than a redfin.
My house is for sale for $700K, OK you drive a hard bargain $625K.
Every property on earth is for sale.
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As to #17 – really that’s the comparison you come up with, get out more…
Now #25 has got it… Austin and San Antonio were two of the cities were the light bulb went on in my head… Very pleasant places and at a huge discount to the PS area…
I was a 25 year resident of one of Seattle’s best in city neighborhood and loved the place for years until my business sent me out into america’s lesser places… Something happen sometime because golly those place are nice and way less expensive to live in…
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I don’t use the term “golly” and I’m not sure why the editor added this to my comment… Do most comments get edited?
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RE: maya @ 31 – It’s automatic with some words, even though this is basically an adult forum.
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I don’t want to live in Texas.
1) The trees are ugly. They’re more like large bushes.
2) Even though Austin has a cool mojo, it’s an oasis in a desert. Austin may have a high “Creativity Index  but Texas is low. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_class
There’s a reason that Thelma wanted to drive around Texas…
kelly
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All that stuff about the Texas Board of Education makes me very hesitant to live in Texas. I don’t want my kids having some home-schooled bible thumper idiot’s version of an education.
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RE: maya @ 31 – Notice the link in all caps just below the box you type your comment in and above the button you hit to submit your comment. The one that asks you to READ THE RULES.
Here is a brief excerpt from said rules:
I am unable to police every single comment, so sometimes comments which violate one of the rules may stand without being deleted. However, Kary is correct, I have an automated filter in place that replaces certain words that I’d prefer not to be littered about my site.
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RE: maya @ 13 –
“Major cities in Texas are just a huge bargain in comparison… Big trouble ahead for Puget Sound…”
Folks, there is nothing wrong with the Dallas area. It is not dry and dusty. There are plenty of trees. The average annual rainfall isn’t that different from Seattle.
I have a friend who lives in one of the nicer, but not ritzy, suburbs. Just look around at what you can get for under $200k. Big house, big yard, built in pool, built fairly recently. Compare that to the tiny 1940′s crap boxes, on postage-stamp yards in Seattle.
Some of the people here need to get a life outside of television. Or at least you need to get open minds. Comparison to Detroit? Be serious.
Personally I wish I wanted to live in one of the less pricey areas. Nothing wrong with many, many of them.
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RE: Tim @ 35
Ah… Tim there was not a word replaced by “golly” as I recall it… It was added… Now if there was a word there it certainly wasn’t inappropriate… And thanks you very much for the pointer but yes I did read the rules prior to commenting… I think you editorialized my post due to it’s content!!
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By maya @ 37:
I told you, it’s an automated plugin. It replaces “d@#n” with “golly,” on everyone’s posts, no matter their content, and without any individual intervention from me.
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re: Tim at 38
Da*n was not in the original comment… I do want to believe…
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RE: maya @ 39 – It was. I’ve got the automated email from WordPress that shows it. It’s not an argument, it’s just the facts.
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re: Tim @40
My bad then I sure didn’t recall using it…
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good god almighty!! I coach a variety of different sports. I never EVER talk about real estate around the parents. At our awards party two parents appaently stopped paying on their Mtg 8 months ago. The sad part was how gleeful they were telling me about it.
This comes as no shock to me but the “disease” of commonsense is spreading like this horror show I saw a few years back. I forgot the name….. I remember the pig ( or some animal) bit someone….then it was off to the races! The infected people would salivate and run around like nutts.
They are ALL coming back!…..
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I’m hearing more and more personal stories of people who have stopped paying. Friends of friends, neighbors of friends, neighbors of relatives. The house across from my sister finally went back to the bank and is on the market. The previous “owners” stayed until the very last second. The people across from a friend are doing it now too. They left but their kids are staying and making it a party house for the summer or until they’re kicked out.
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RE: BillE @ 43 – RE: ray pepper @ 42 – The real question though is whether these people have a choice. We have over 9% unemployment, and even when unemployment was around 5% and real estate prices were rising there were still people who couldn’t make their payments and went into foreclosure.
But now people who can’t afford their payments can be like the little kid I saw on the 4th of July who took a spill and then got up and said: “I meant to do that!”
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RE: kelly @ 33 – Amen. I used to live in San Antonio. It could just as likely be renamed the transfer station.
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[...] Cheapest Homes: July Edition NWMLS: Inventory Exceeds 2009 High as Buyers Disappear »Recent CommentsCara to June Reporting Roundup: Cliff Edge Edition: RE: One Eyed Man @ 13 [...]
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