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Glenn should get on his knees and kiss the ground you walk on. He owes you, a lot, for giving his site credibility. Without your support he would still be kicking the shins of Real Estate agents.

You’ve been a cheer leader, who brought the whole statistical reasoning of buying now, to the table.

The story of Sara is a case on point. Sara paid I forget but I think $100K for a property in Tacoma. It had sold before for I forget, $210K. Without batting an eye that looks like a $110K savings. Wow, what a great deal that was!!!!

The truth is you brought the stats, charts, graphs, and Case Schiller to the table for Glenn. That was a year or even two ago. These charts, graphs, and statistics, based on sales data, are making a feel good presentation of the market place we have today.

You were saying a year ago you expected residential Real Estate prices to drop by about 10% which is in line with Real Estate Industry hype.

No, you now work, or have been working, for the Real Estate Industry.

What I’m saying is that you may have over looked your Seattle Bubble brand. You bring much more to Glenn than Glenn provides to any body. He owes you at least the $250K as a signing bonus. Without you Glenn is just another ankle biter, seal clubber.

My fear is, that in this process you may lose your brand.

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RE: The Tim @ 46 –

” the characterization of me as an â��old ankle biting, seal clubbing, ambulance chasing, real estate bandit,â��

Hmmmm. Agreed. Sounds more like Ray or. . .Ira! ;-)

Hey now! I don’t club seals.

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Well, if that isn’t the pot calling the kettle black! Aren’t you the pro at “lobbing cheap drive by ad hominem arguments”?

Ad hominem:

An ad hominem, also known as argumentum ad hominem (Latin: “to the man”), is an attempt to link the validity of a premise to a characteristic or belief of the person advocating the premise. The ad hominem is a classic logical fallacy.

Oh yeah I do that all the time. That’s what charts, graphs, and data are all about, isn’t it?

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All the best,
Elizabeth

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I don’t know. Numbers are numbers. There are enough competent folks here to adequately peer review any wild new assertions The Tim may make regarding big market moves. And if he ever utters “buy now, or be priced out forever” (without full statistical substantiation) this site will empty out like Safeco Field after the 5th inning of a Mariners’ home game.

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” the characterization of me as an “old ankle biting, seal clubbing, ambulance chasing, real estate bandit,”

Hmmmm. Agreed. Sounds more like Ray or. . .Ira! ;-)

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When I asked you how this posting “proves” anything, your response is that now I work for Redfin.

Logic fail.

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Especially when compared to this post I wrote when they released these numbers last month, before I had even laid eyes on the job posting?

Local internet real estate technology powerhouse and discount brokerage Redfin has taken a page from the NWMLS playbook, torn it out, shredded it, burned it, flushed it down the toilet, and written a whole new book from scratch on the subject of monthly data releases.

Not that I agree with the characterization of me as an “old ankle biting, seal clubbing, ambulance chasing, real estate bandit,” but I don’t see where you’re coming from with your claim that this post somehow “proves” what you think it proves.

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Well, let’s be clear about the business model of Real Estate. There are four different areas of Real Estate; Commercial, residential, Property Management, and Business Opportunity.

You would be right, Windermere proved that the cost of moving into an area for residential sales is a dismal failure. Windermere, Coldwell Banker, Prudential, RE Max, survive by diversity.

redfin, and Zillow, are set up to sell residential mortgages. Think about the stats, charts, and data. The zestimate could be used, and I have to be careful how I phrase this because it gets these techy, selly, companies in a twitter, pun intended, to sell mortgages.

You are here on the internet hoping to get some insight into a complex industry. Without the input of the four components, Commercial, residential, Property Management, and Business Opportunity, you have nothing but a sales job.

When I started in the 1970s residential Real Estate sales was an after thought to Commercial Brokerage. People moved, in the new mobile society, to be close to jobs. Better jobs meant better schools.

Anyway, I could go on for a long time about Real Estate, the industry, and the people who make things happen, but Glenn is an outsider. Once the company is sold he will move on to the next thing. Right now some one would have to be brain dead to pay for the web site.

BTW selling a quarter to half million dollar debt instrument should take a little more thought than buying books, or groceries, on line.

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RE: Pegasus @ 36 – Here’s a story on some of Paul Allen’s successes and failures.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-10167010-75.html

they don’t call him the “accidental billionaire” for nothing…

As for Redfin, Kelman was interviewed a couple months ago and said they have doubled their run rate and are still profitable.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/04/25/redfin-hits-30-million-in-revenue-in-quest-to-rip-apart-real-estate-industry/

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And the H1B visa has been criticized by some as a scheme to import cheaper foreign labor and lower the wages of US citizens.

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“they tend to have a lot larger savings than the typical american.”

Interesting point- I may look into that.

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Example I was at 24 Hour Fitness- I swear 1/2 the People on a Friday night was Middle Eastern, India, Russian.. was at trader joes and noticed that so many of the people Had foreign accents- I currently live in Renton and used to live in Bellevue, after visiting Friday and working out shopping it dawned on me that Bellevue Redmond sure has a Large Foreign Population.

Microsoft largely is the Employer that brings the foreigners into the United States. Microsoft it seems to me doesn’t do a very good job of employing the people that are not foreigners.

Culturally foreigners are probably just not as in tune with whats happened the Last several years? I’ve noticed or it also appears there largely the buyers on the eastside the last couple of years- they tend to have a lot larger savings than the typical american.

Just my 2 Cents..

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source:http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly10/supply-demand-ideas07-10.html

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http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-10167010-75.html

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Let me guess, you were on the “Amazon is doomed” wagon too, in 2000, when they got into a debt pinch? I worked for a dot-bomb who really did only survive form venture funding. No revenue stream or even plausible business model whatsoever. I sure see a difference here. Apparently others do too, given the 2009 round of funding you conveniently pointed out.

Do I need to find stories about WAMU getting new capital? ;-)

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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26 – Surviving only on venture capital? Did you really mean to say that? I don’t think you get to count “venture capital” on your P&L statement..

I don’t think Redfin has ever released financials. I do recall that about a year ago they said they turned a profit.

But in any case, they raised $8M in 2006.

http://www.redfin.com/about/press/releases/pr-funding

And then $12M ($20M?) right at the peak in 2007. Probably good timing on their part (sort of like Ford).

http://www.seattlepi.com/venture/funding.asp?company=Redfin

Oh, but wait, in 2009 they raised $10M more.

http://www.redfin.com/about/press/releases/redfin-raises-10-million-venture-round-led-by-greylock

So perhaps you’re right. They aren’t surviving “only” on venture capital, because they do have some other revenues, and allegedly have turned a profit at least once. I’m sorry for exaggerating. ;-)

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What does it cost a traditional brokerage, like Windermere, to move to a new city? My guess? A lot more than it costs Redfin, especially as Redfin’s startup costs get amortized. I don’t really care much about Redfin the company, but I am quite interested in Redfin the business model. I hope we have 5 Redfins in 10 years.

Like I said, this should be a good thing for decent real estate agents. As the used-car-style agents throw in the towel, more full-service customers for the remaining ones. Even so, everyone will fighting for a smaller pool of commission dollars.

My own agent has already adapted in his own way. He refunds 100% of the seller’s commission, assuming you buy your new home through him with a traditional fee structure. He is 100% full service, and arguable the best agent I have ever worked with. Not quite as cheap as Redfin, but I get full service. He was forced to do this as discount brokerages started popping up, and has found a great niche.

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Red Fin will survive if they can capture a significant portion of their income from Lead Generation. Sales Volume will NOT keep Red Fin afloat. You will see a merger of Red Fin at some point in the coming years……

Watch and Learn!

The big G is lurking and is always LOOKING!

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I really like this kind of presentation. Glad to see what’s happening in my neck of the woods. However, I would love to see a heatmap if you can geolocate the sales data by neighborhood. It would be a cool redfin feature as well.

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I really appreciate the 98110 data.

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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21 – Better cost structure..

Now that’s funny! Surviving only on venture capital is evidence of a better cost structure?

I don’t know why you think I’m getting testy. I’d say you’re getting defensive or desperate to make a point when you point to Redfin having a better cost structure. But just out of curiosity, to get to one of Ray’s main complaints about Redfin, why do you think they raised their rates if their cost structure is so fantastic?

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I don’t know why you guys are getting so testy. You always tell me there will always be a place for a full service six-percenter. If anything, that should be a positive thing for you since most of the slick willies will get flushed.

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You are correct by comparing redfin to Real Estate sales people because that is exactly who they are. These are sales people, long, short, and all together..

As to your point that their agents are not all that different, it would be interesting to know what performance Redfin requires of its sales people. I’m fairly certain that they have some standard, and that the standard puts pressure on the agents to perform.

BTW, thanks for clearing up the Sears/1980s comment. When you made the comment yesterday I had no idea what you were talking about.

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Exactly, as Ardell called the “bottom” of the market. Are we at the “bottom?”

Because according to most of the people here it’s looking like prices may stabalize. Maybe down another 10%, Sara saved $105K, and don’t forget those low mortgage interest rates.

The fact of life is home ownership is hardwork, and the term sweat equity is real sweat. Even if you are a player you take risks with real dollars.

People are making huge profits today on all of the information people think they are getting from the internet. Home sales are brisk when there are very few deals to make. Why is that?

How can Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, or CNBC keep hyping the Real Estate market? We know prices are declining, we know the tax credit pushed up pricing, it’s all over the news, and statistics, but redfin is pumping out sales volume.

How can all of these internet educated people be making huge mistakes today? I mean today before the market has corrected from the tax credit. How did so many internet educated people buy into the tax credit? Why did refin stop taking offers less than 15% of list price?

It’s a game. redfin is hoping to be a player in the game. It’s not Real Estate, it’s just the sales. It’s all about volume because it has to be.

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That was the gimmick in Arizona, in the 1980s, that gave rebate brokerage a bad name.

It’s always been around, but was protected against by Congress, that’s how Glenn, and many others, ended up pleading their case to Congress.

The larger fear is if redfin rebated escrow, mortgages, and title with a home purchase. How about a new Discover Card with a limit of $1200 like Sears wanted to offer, again in the 1980s. Sears owned Coldwell Banker, and again could, or wanted to rebate you with home furnishings.

My biggest objection is comparing a home purchase to E*Trade or Expedia. Millions of people have lost billions of dollars in equity, maybe trillions globally. You are correct by comparing redfin to Real Estate sales people because that is exactly who they are. These are sales people, long, short, and all together.

The Real Estate business is a pretty closed shop that many people want a piece of. It is a billion dollar industry. The fact is that very few people ever, I mean ever, get good at the system.

But I digress, the real reason for a redfin or Zillow is to tap the online mortgage market. That is what Congress is working on today. The Wall Street Reform includes a Loan Originators compensation provision. It will make large corporate lenders the only ones who can do mortgages. By limiting compensation there will need to be volume. The internet will help with that.

In my opinion these are corporate thugs looking for a buyer. redfin, if smart, will sell quickly. This next round of disappointed home owners may turn on the industry as a whole, and refin is a part, a small part, of the Real Estate Industrial Complex.

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RE: One Eyed Man @ 19 -Redfin’s business model does not require the pathetic pumping and FUD we get from the ilk of the NAR. Time will tell.

I don’t know why you think that. Redfin needs volume more than the traditional brokerage needs volume. Salaries vs. commission.

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While I agree with both of you, in fairness to the Losh and others who share his view, Redfin’s profits are dependent upon their transaction volume and there is the potential that at some future time Redfin may look to spin the statistics to help generate additional demand for their services just as the investment brokerage houses had their analysts spin their stock ratings to help win investment banking business. The point is that there is a risk that Redfin will at some point pollute the purity of The Tim’s statistical information for the purpose of improving their transaction volume and bottom line. We’ve all seen NAR cherry pick the most positive stats and leave out the ugly truth.

Hopefully Redfin will always recognize the value of unbias statistics to its business. I think a very significant part of Redfin’s value as a brand is its association with unbias statistical information and I hope that they don’t compromise that brand. But it is a risk none the less.

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Dude. You are pretty out of touch with things. I support Tim, before and after his job-change, just as much as I always have supported Redfin, for eliminating the need for those useless, seedy, glorified car salesmen that suck waaaaay more than they’re worth from you.

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PS Sorry to see you are getting unwarranted flack on the Redfin job. Suggest you ignore it and carry on.

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Have you considered your brand? You are now a part of the Wal Mart family of Real Estate with redfin.

I did read Glenn’s words of wisdom about coming back to the redfin site often to be educated by statistics, because really, that’s all you need to know about building a Real Estate.

No, my friend, your position on the internet has changed dramatically. Where before you were a lone voice of reason; you are now speaking for corporate brokerages everywhere.

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You can zoom in, and pan as well. Go to the arrowhead icon at the bottom of the map.
I was disappointed as well until I found it.

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