Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

56 responses to “Get Connected to Seattle Bubble Extras”

  1. David Losh

    Good Morning!

    Yes, I think you are missing a bet by concentrating on data. That may be your thing to do, but Real Estate, like Case Schiller points out, is psychological.

    Why are people buying residential properties today when, if they just wait for the tax credit hysteria to die down, for those over priced properties to close, and get off the CMAs, the pricing will go down?

    If Real Estate agents are worth less to a Real Estate transaction why is having a redfin going to improve the service provided? If you are shopping for either commercial or residential property why are people hiring agents with no experience, no input, and no value?

    Why, in all the blogs out there, will no one step away from sales data, or historical data, and say what a property value actually is? Why can’t you look outside of the box, and share more about global economic issues?

    You have an opportunity here that you are squandering because you are not a Real Estate person. You, like redfin, have made your bones by vilifying an industry you have worked hard to be outside of.

    Why aren’t you getting interviews with Lennox Scott? Why can’t you contribute to an industry that has been around since before the time of Christ? What’s preventing you from being a positive impact on an industry that generates more true wealth than any thing else in the world?

    Look up, look around, you have a voice, use it. Be positive, and make a positive impact.

    Let me direct you to Thach Nguyen at John L Scott. Talk with him before you talk with Lennox, get involved.

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  2. Hugh Dominic

    Considering all the bragging in the comments, your site should have occasions where individuals are asked to “go on record” with predictions. Your site should publicly expose the accuracy of each user.

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  3. David S

    By David Losh @ 1:

    Good Morning!

    Yes, I think you are missing a bet by concentrating on data. That may be your thing to do, but Real Estate, like Case Schiller points out, is psychological.

    Salesman to the CORE.

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  4. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 1:

    Why, in all the blogs out there, will no one step away from sales data, or historical data, and say what a property value actually is?

    Because a blog requires more than one person to be effective and only you seem to think that an asset has some intrinsic value that never changes and/or that is only adjusted for inflation.

    I don’t see how you can possible think that, while at the same time pointing out that real estate is psychological.

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  5. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4

    I would address that, but seriously if you don’t know that there are economic factors concerning Real Estate, I’m at a loss. In other words if you think sales data determines value you’re in the wrong business.

    Sorry.

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  6. David Losh

    Come to think of it why have you concentrated on Real Estate agents? I’m wondering why Loan Originators, Banks, and lenders have gotten a free ride in this economic melt down.

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  7. David S

    By David Losh @ 6:

    Come to think of it why have you concentrated on Real Estate agents? I’m wondering why Loan Originators, Banks, and lenders have gotten a free ride in this economic melt down.

    I would consider throwing all of them into the same bucket, category.

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  8. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: David Losh @ 6 – By David Losh @ 5:

    I would address that, but seriously if you don’t know that there are economic factors concerning Real Estate, I’m at a loss. In other words if you think sales data determines value you’re in the wrong business.

    As to comment 5, yes there are economic factors that affect real estate values, practically countless factors, and that’s why real estate values are constantly changing. That’s also why I claim that real estate is impossible to predict–there are simply too many of them and many of them are themselves impossible to predict.

    There is not a single intrinsic value like you repeatedly try to claim. The sales data is the result of those changing economic factors. I’m not sure why you would think I think gross sales data determines value. They are clearly results. You can use a few comps to try to estimate value, but that’s entirely different.

    As to comment 6, I have no idea what you’re talking about if that’s a reference to something I said.

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  9. ray pepper

    I want to see contests where I can win A Seattle Bubble Sweatshirt or maybe a Seattle Bubble Meal at a very nice restaurant. The winner will be surrounded by industry experts such as Steve Tytler.

    Come on Tim…Your riding on Red Fin money now. Lets dangle the carrot and bring the Bubbleheads PRIZES…..

    Dangle a bucket of chicken from KFC at this group and watch what happens…………

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  10. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ray pepper @ 9 – Maybe a free Windows 7 phone for every post!

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  11. Ira Sacharoff

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 10:

    RE: ray pepper @ 9 – Maybe a free Windows 7 phone for every post!

    Were that to happen, you could open up a Windows 7 phone store, Kary.
    About real estate being impossible to predict:
    Maybe impossible to predict accurately, but I’ve never shied away from looking stupid.
    …And it wouldn’t be just real estate. Things happen in life, and that affects things.
    In the last Presidential election, Obama could have lost his cool and been filmed screaming at an audience. Had that happened, we’d be complaining about President McCain right now.
    It was unlikely that would have happened, and it didn’t. In real estate, it’s unlikely that in the very near future sales and prices are going to skyrocket, and it’s also unlikely that prices will drop 20% in the next year. Yes, both are possible, but some things are more likely than others.

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  12. kurt

    RSS is a really useful feature and keeps you from having to visit a site multiple times to see if there have been any new postings.

    You can also subscribe (with RSS) to Twitter feeds. You don’t get to post any tweets but you can see when someone posts and you don’t have to get a Twitter account of your own.

    Seattle Bubble Twitter:
    feed://twitter.com/statuses/user_timeline/67778050.rss

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  13. softwarengineer

    Although Most Websites are Assessible From Public/Private Servers

    Facebook, Twitter,YouTube, ext, etc., are many that are banned, due to security and video sites tie up and slow down servers.

    A good reason not to use them.

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  14. Kary L. Krismer

    Seattle Bubble’s FB page is rather sparse. Here’s an example of a better one for one of my favorite electronic products:

    http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/HDHomeRun-Network-Digital-Tuners/352857971521?v=wall

    Line split issue, just search for hdhomerun in FB.

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  15. ARDELL

    RE: David Losh @ 1

    Why has your opinion of SB and The Tim changed so much simply because he took a job at Redfin? You seem to have done a complete about face over that one tiny factor.

    You used to have nothing but great things to say about Seattle Bubble and The Tim. Do you really think it’s fair to completely change your historic opinion just because he took a job at Redfin?

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  16. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ARDELL @ 15 – I wouldn’t really call it a “tiny factor,” although I wouldn’t go to the extremes of David either. Clearly what you might be willing to say can be affected by who your employer is! ;-)

    http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/07/21/race-and-resignation-24-hours-of-shirley-sherrod/

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  17. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8

    #6 has nothing to do with you. It was a thought that I came back to because of a discussion on the Rain City Guide.

    Sales data, as an example, was used to say that in 2007 a house that is now selling for $300K was worth $450K. Sales data is meaningless.

    The difference is that for over twenty years I have worked with people who bring in their own system for the valuation of Real Estate. Even in 2007 most people I talked with knew that there was a pricing decline on the horizon.

    What took me by surprise is that we didn’t have inflation the way we normally would. Like I have said repeatedly, when the price of oil hit $140 a barrel, I thought for sure we were off an running. I was wrong, inflation turned to recession, and economic melt down.

    Things have changed dramatically. The fact people are purchasing residential Real Estate today, for the over inflated prices we have today, proves that most people have not come to grips with the change.

    We should be looking at other economic data to determine value. Sales are not an indication of a market place. I can sell anything. I could be out lying to people today, but it would be wrong for me to do that.

    The price of residential Real estate is declining and will continue to decline either all at once, very soon, or over the next couple of years.

    What I know for a fact is that a buyer can make a better deal by waiting until November than buying today. It’s a no brainer.

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  18. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16

    I would think given David has always been such a huge fan of SB and Tim that he would give him the benefit of the doubt for at least 6 months before turn-coating.

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  19. David Losh

    RE: ARDELL @ 15

    This post seems to be about how to broaden the appeal of the SeattleBubble.

    I’m interested in the brand of SeattleBubble.com. It’s a good brand, good concept, and very now, relevant, true.

    Tim, from what I can gather has been trying to monetize his site, the way we all do. A while back he was talking about changing the name. I got the impression that he had feed back that the name SeattleBubble was possibly too negative to monetize.

    Advertisers like up beat, happening kind of stuff. Tim has a reputation in the Real Estate community as a Real Estate basher. I have a similar reputation. I’ve been warned repeatedly that I should support the real Estate community that has been very good to me. Maybe I should be more grateful.

    My concern with an affiliation with redfin is that it will dilute the brand of SeattleBubble. There is no larger corporate presence in Real Estate today than redfin. It is a deep pocket, venture capital, large corporate interest company.

    While writing it occurred to me that Rain City Guide is kind of the same thing. You associated yourself with the Guide, and Dustin decides to go in another direction. It reflects on you. You are separate, but a part of, affiliated with Rain City Guide.

    I think the SeattleBubble through, as Ray said, T-Shirts, Bobble Head, Bubble Heads, broader news articles concerning the economy, and recommended properties to buy, can monetize easily.

    What I said is that Tim brings ten times more to redfin than redfin will ever do for Tim. I understand that it’s hard to take the leap, it’s safer to take the pay check, but Glenn owes Tim a lot. Glenn has come here and lifted the brand of the Seattle Bubble to use on his own site. It’s kind of unfair, but it was there for the taking.

    It’s just another thing that rubs me the wrong way about redfin, but has nothing to do with my think Tim should stand up, and claim his branding.

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  20. ARDELL

    “What I know for a fact is that a buyer can make a better deal by waiting until November than buying today. It’s a no brainer.”

    That’s true most any year…this year moreso.

    I have had an inordinate # of calls recently from people who want to build a house vs buy one. Easier said than done in lower price ranges.

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  21. deejayoh

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 14:

    Seattle Bubble’s FB page is rather sparse. Here’s an example of a better one for one of my favorite electronic products:

    http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/HDHomeRun-Network-Digital-Tuners/352857971521?v=wall

    Line split issue, just search for hdhomerun in FB.

    Kary – who knew you were a geek at heart! Waiting anxiously for the “prime” like I am?

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  22. David Losh

    Now to continue the thought, I have several Seattle domain names. That’s how I found the Seattle Bubble in the first place.

    http://www.BuyingSeattle.com is the umbrella, but I also found that by having http://www.SeattleHouseCleaning.com I’m on the first page of the Google search for house cleaners in Seattle. I have SeattleHousePainting, SeattleRockery, SeattleFixerFixer, SeattleLLC, SeattleHomesLLC, AAASeattle, AASeattle, and about another thirty to forty Seattle something or others.

    My sites monetize by providing labor services through a site like http://www.SeattleLabor.com

    I come here, and Rain City Guide, and 360 Digest, which by the way has the highest return for Google searches, to see how these site will get money. I track BloodHoundRealEstate for it’s broader appeal which takes us to Calculated Risk.

    I love the links Scotsman posts because those are some highly monetized sites.

    Anyway that’s why I come here. I like this site the best, and think it has the most potential.

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  23. David Losh

    RE: ARDELL @ 20

    OK, interesting point is that last year I decided, against everybody’s advice, to concentrate on home improvement, and construction. In January I put up my http://www.FixerFixer.com site and was also surprised by the number of people interested in building. I have some post in there about tear downs that had people e-mailing me.

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  24. ARDELL

    RE: David Losh @ 19

    Back when Dustin was hired by Realtor.com (Move) as a result of Rain City Guide, it did not influence the writers there at all. I don’t think Seattle Bubble will change either.

    My concern for Tim was when he did the post on mls photos the other day, as Redfin was fined big time for Sweet Digs. I think anyone being paid by a brokerage cannot post other agent’s listings in that manner. Not sure there’s a big enough Chinese Wall between Tim and Redfin for Tim to post homes that way. He should double check on that before Redfin gets hit with a fine. At $5,000 per house featured there, the fine could be $35,000 or so…not a small matter.

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  25. Scotsman

    RE: ray pepper @ 9

    “maybe a Seattle Bubble Meal at a very nice restaurant. The winner will be surrounded by industry experts such as Steve Tytler.”

    You want to get in a knock-down fight at Claim Jumper?

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  26. ray pepper

    Remember nobody will watch out for Tim and his family more then Tim. He got a great job and I personally could care less where it is or who it is for. Seattle Bubble does NOT generate enough income or stability for him to live so congrats…..

    Its tough out there and I doubt this site will diminish in quality because of Red Fin. He will be working more and obviously have less time but the same old gang will stick with this site simply because….” WHERE THE HELL ELSE YA GONNA GO?”……….Its fun here.. We get to BASH and be bashed………..

    I visit the Red Fin forums but it does nothing for me. I retired from The News Tribune blog because they went the way of the dinosaur. I’d rather sit through Inception again then go back to Rain City Guide..(Sorry Ardell, Rhonda, and Jillayne)..and last time I visited The Seattle PI some Agent Named Max called me and said…….”I know you Ray….Don’t mess with me….You hear me? Don’t mess with me!!….” So that place is to frightening.

    I simply found no better place to hide out………………………….Go Tim!! Go Red Fin Go !!

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  27. David Losh

    RE: The Tim @ 26

    Actually, one of the things you said at the second meet up made sense to me, that you didn’t have a Real Estate license because you would be subject to NWMLS rules.

    You have mentioned urbnlivg.com before, and it is a totally different site than yours, it’s a booster site, yours is numbers, and reality. See, tying a wagon to something like urbnlvng.com could be problematic.

    We are still very much in a Bubble.

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  28. David Losh

    RE: The Tim @ 26

    Actually I just check urbnlivng.com by your link: Escala 38 Closed Sales!!! Wow, way to go Escala! No better way to spend your money than investing in the future of Downtown Seattle, at this time.

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  29. mikey

    re: David Losh

    I am not in the real estate business now and have never owned a home in Seattle. I have however worked on real estate software and I have studied real estate finance from the derivatives side. I can tell you that as a member of the general public my experience with Realtors has been horrible. When I was looking for a home the people I ended up talking to were extremely ethically challenged and seemed to lie without the slightest hesitation. I’ve met some great, honest, and likable Real Estate agents but the number of get rich quick scumbags in the industry really hurts the overall reputation.

    Any model is only as good as the variables that go into it. I would like to add a few to the real estate equation.

    1. Mark-to-market accounting: The banks are all holding CDOs at 1% to 19% of actual value. They have been fighting to keep these off the balance sheets. If they are forced to write down the actual losses on real estate investments I have to think that the market is going to get pushed down even further. Tthe way these losses is being reported is one of the major reasons that we have any real estate market. What happens if the government simply allows everyone to cheat on their financial reporting? I really don’t know?

    2. CDS market- One of the most underreported stories is in the CDS market. Real estate related CDSs have managed to chain banks together in a way that no one expected. The problem is that the counter party in a CDS can change if the CDS is traded. If I enter a CDS contract with Goldman and they trade the CDS to AIG then AIG should pay in case of default. But if AIG goes bankrupt Goldman would become the counter party. That means that each former owner of the CDS needs to have the assets to cover the entire loss of the CDS.

    3. Bond rating agencies: The bond rating agencies are still exempt from any legal ramifications for pumping their ratings. Bond ratings are actually covered as freedom of speech. It seems that this is a recipe for disaster. If banks can still create artificially high valuations for real estate related synthetic securities then it seems like the market will continue to be overpriced.

    Our real estate bubble formed because of horrific credit practices. We can not get rid of these bad policies because the loss would be so horrible that we might not have an economy if we do. It is very, very ugly and it seems that we are trapped.

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  30. Kary L. Krismer

    By deejayoh @ 21:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 14:
    Seattle Bubble’s FB page is rather sparse. Here’s an example of a better one for one of my favorite electronic products:

    http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/HDHomeRun-Network-Digital-Tuners/352857971521?v=wall

    Line split issue, just search for hdhomerun in FB.

    Kary – who knew you were a geek at heart! Waiting anxiously for the “prime” like I am?

    Exactly! I’m on my third HTPC, and the HDHR has been the best equipment I’ve come across. I can’t wait for the next generation.

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  31. Ira Sacharoff

    By Scotsman @ 25:

    RE: ray pepper @ 9

    “maybe a Seattle Bubble Meal at a very nice restaurant. The winner will be surrounded by industry experts such as Steve Tytler.”

    You want to get in a knock-down fight at Claim Jumper?

    Just in case the food doesn’t kill you?

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  32. ARDELL

    RE: The Tim @ 26

    The sweet digs girls were not in any way in the real estate business either. In fact the head was a Microsoft employee and none were full time employees of Redfin. Just a bunch of women who loved looking at and talking about houses.

    Since that was a rare type of post for you it surprised me, and worried me for your sake and Redfin’s. Matt usually sticks to big complexes vs individual resale listings. Though I agree that your scenario is more like Matt’s than Sweet Digs, you may want to double check on that.

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  33. karl

    Great post Mikey, but you are just touching on the tip of the iceberg. The fed still hasn’t told the banks what level of tier one capital they need to maintain so they are stashing all they can. They are still batting around mark-to-market vs mark-to-model so there is no clear picture of what the banks are sitting on. The derivitives are really spooky since they were sold with no assets to back them what so ever(and are still out there festering). IMO they need to put “prop” trading on the shelf for 12 months until they can sort out who is eligible to play. Not a place for pension funds ,municipalities, or government insured banks.
    economically we still have some choppy water ahead

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  34. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: The Tim @ 35 – I would tend to agree with Tim and think Ardell must think that Seattle Bubble is to Redfin as RCG is to M Realty. M Realty would have some concerns on this particular issue, but I don’t see that Redfin would.

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  35. David Losh

    RE: The Tim @ 35

    Seriously look at the Matt blog. It is chock full of over priced housing units.

    You’re now affiliated.

    You are now a part of the Real Estate Industry. Welcome, my friend to the show that never ends.

    Yes, everybody is thrilled you came over. You have a powerful tool here.

    Here the facts though, we are four months away from the end of tax credit sales data. What do you think it will show? As the stimulus fades where will the price of Real Estate go?

    This is your show. You are in charge, here. You took a stand. Were you right, wrong, or indifferent?

    Should people be buying debt instruments today? Should people become indebted to a property today? or should they wait?

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  36. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 37:

    RE: The Tim @ 35Here the facts though, we are four months away from the end of tax credit sales data. What do you think it will show? As the stimulus fades where will the price of Real Estate go?

    We’re effectively already there and will have the first post-tax credit data within about 2 weeks. The few short sale transactions hanging out there won’t have much of an impact on the statistics, although it will be interesting whether it causes more short sale buyers to hang onto transactions that they would otherwise just walk from.

    Here’s a question though. If you had a short sale contract that gave the bank 60 days to decide, and then you extend that time period after April 30, is it still a contract entered into before April 30? I would say probably, but I doubt you could get any certainty there.

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  37. David Losh

    The tax credit has boosted the sales price data. Once the data goes from the tax credit high of the Real Estate selling season to when people are making, possibly, more rational purchases the pricing data will decline.

    More importantly is the financial markets reaction to the mortgage backed securities that are being churned out today. What we have today is a circle of friends with each helping the other with one hand extended to the right. It’s all a self fulfilling recovery.

    We are having Real Estate sales, sales, sales right now!!! People are buying, buying, buying into this bottom of the market!!! It’s looking great, people are refinancing, and getting $200 a month more to spend!!!! That sales data looks great, just look at those graphs on the urbnlivgn.com web site. The market is hot!!! Downtown condos are selling at unbelievably low prices!!!

    Actually, just because a bag of potato chips sold for $10 three years ago doesn’t make them a bargain at $5 today.

    In a couple of weeks we’ll see what is happening in the global financial markets. Today we’ll see what happens with Korea. It makes no difference really about the price of condos in Seattle, the financial markets are global. How stable do you think they are?

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  38. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 39:

    The tax credit has boosted the sales price data.

    The tax credit has clearly increased the sales volume data. That it has increased the sales price data isn’t as clear (especially if you don’t say what data you’re talking about). As discussed elsewhere, arguably the tax credit reduced the King County mean and median data.

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  39. ray pepper

    I find myself hypnotized by David Losh’s posts…I feel I must ALWAYS read them…Why does this happen to me??

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  40. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ray pepper @ 41 – It’s because occasionally there’s a flash of genius in them. I first realized that when Ardell commented on one of his posts here (perhaps in a RCG piece all it’s own about one of his comments), and she totally missed the point of what he was saying, and it was hardly favorable to RCG.

    I found it!

    http://raincityguide.com/2009/01/27/ruin-sity-gaide/

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  41. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 40

    You can see the bounce in the charts of the time. Yes, as the volume increased it became more obvious that prices were declining. In my opinion it will be the same now. As sales close it will show a continued trend of pricing declines.

    Let me give you an example I came across this week that shows the reason sales data will be meaningless.

    A house we worked on this week is in disrepair. The seller listed the property. It is owned free and clear with a spectacular view. It is listed at $850K with a CMA. The seller wants a $150K loan to improve the property. The bank is dragging it’s feet. The seller can’t understand why, but I said, without thinking, that the bank is concerned about the secondary market. Who will they be able to sell the loan to?

    The seller is talking like of course the house will sell, but the reality is that anything can happen today, in the world, to completely collapse the economy, the global economy.

    All investments are risk, and Real Estate used to be safe, but not today, and not at these prices.

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  42. Ira Sacharoff

    By ray pepper @ 41:

    I find myself hypnotized by David Losh’s posts…I feel I must ALWAYS read them…Why does this happen to me??

    It’s the power of Losh Fu. None of us can escape his power.

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  43. ray pepper

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 42

    Great find Kary!

    I just read through that RCG blog entry from David. Appears I completely missed it. He even gave me a plug at the end!!!

    I stopped using the reference (when I disagree with David) “it appears you missed a dose” and instead just read and anticipate the unexpected.

    What is even more exciting is he got Glenn Kelman (Tim’s new boss) to respond in that thread…

    Apparently we are all hypnotized by his posts…Hmmm Kinda wondering if Glenn will hire David now?—-public relations???

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  44. Dawn Glover

    I’m a regular reader of this site and hope that The Tim does not sell out to the man…but the reality is that being outspoken doesn’t always put food on the table. David Losh just says it as it is. My feelings about the Industry are quite strong compared to most. I believe right now most people don’t realize how much equity they have lost in their homes and retirement funds. When it becomes painfully obvious and can’t be swept under the rug, views such as David’s will seem soft. People will remember the sales pitches from their Real Estate Professionals and Financial Planners and they will be angry. Sites like SB just state the truth about real estate so that people can make financially sound decisions for themselves. The truth is that real estate is not a good investment for most people. And anyone who bought in the past five years was lied to. This view goes directly against the Industry that makes their living from Real Estate. It’s a strange situation and I’m very curious how it will play out. One thing I’m pretty sure about is just like the Bankers are being hated…Real Estate agents won’t be very popular either….just sayin

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  45. Scotsman

    RE: mikey @ 30

    You need to update your take on the rating agencies- they are now liable, and in some cases refusing to allow their ratings to be used in public presentations. More obfuscation and free-form accounting.

    Your take on the CDS situation is right on, however- a time bomb that no one wants to acknowledge, waiting to go off. As are pensions. How anyone can think we are headed for recovery in real estate of the economy in general totally escapes me. But my views are well known, and few want to hear.

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  46. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ray pepper @ 45 – Maybe Tim could figure out when I started posting here relative to that thread. Perhaps Losh is to blame for me being here! ;-)

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  47. zipzippygc

    To me, it comes down to decisions like buying a small lake view for 450K (100K + above the low zestimate) on a newly placed property on the market:
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Shoreline/19271-Stone-Ave-N-98133/home/79464

    vs. renting a Puget Sound view for 2K month:
    http://apartments.nwsource.com/properties/search/detail.php?qBackToSearch=qTerms%3Drent%26qSearchTab%3Drent%26qAction%3Dsearch%26qMinPrice%3D0%26view%3Ddetailed%26qtotal%3D224%26qSortBy%3DPrice%26qSortDirection%3DDESC%26pagesize%3D50&qAdid=4c27c78e4f2&propertyNumber=21

    ….and the answer is not obvious.

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  48. David Losh

    RE: zipzippygc @ 49

    $2K a month for Three Tree Point? 1900 sq ft? Come on.

    The house on the lake is South West exposure, 3000 sq ft, and on the Interburban Trail. The best part is that it used to back up to a trailer park area, and is now looking at a complex of low income, Shag, type housing with a YMCA.

    Just an interesting side note is to look at the sales between the 1980 sale and the 1990 sale to see what appreciation of Real Property looks like.

    The price at $450K is high, but worth paying off.

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  49. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 48

    Kary, it was the Hot Tub story that got me interested, and yes there was a time when I recommended this site over others concerning Real Estate. Now this is the only site left standing.

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  50. ARDELL

    RE: zipzippygc @ 49

    A significant consideration is the cost of going in and out. Assume 3% of the purchase price going in and 9% to get out. so 12% of the sale price to get in and out of it. That cost alone is about 27 months worth of rent, not counting the carrying costs.

    Often people look only at the difference in month vs the total cost, including buying and later selling.

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  51. Cheap South

    RE: zipzippygc @ 49

    The bottom line is that at $160/sq.ft., that big house is not unreasonably priced for the region. I could not afford it; but still, I don’t think you’ll find too many places in that shape for that price (and the lake).

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  52. David Losh

    RE: Cheap South @ 53RE: zipzippygc @ 49

    I went to look at the house yesterday and it is big, nice, great location.

    Of course you would want to buy it for $350K to make in reasonable, $250K would be better.

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  53. David Losh

    Having a forum about good properties, open discussion, is something I would like to do with http://www.buyingseattle.com

    You can do that here and this house is a great example.

    There are a lot of discussions you can have here that other forums can’t touch.

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  54. zipzippygc

    RE: David Losh @ 50
    It was a quick debate, the house was under contract within a couple days of hitting the market. This bodes ill for the wait-and-see paradigm. Desirables are moving fairly fast. And it was arguably priced too high for today’s market realities. Not good news for someone like me who scans for hidden gems.

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