Housing Market Heated Up in Q2, Affordability Fell

The latest issue of Sound Housing Quarterly has been published (Q2 2010). Sound Housing Quarterly is a subscription-based sister project to Seattle Bubble that I created to provide a single consolidated and consistent source of high-level local housing market stats and analysis.

Here are a couple of highlights from the second quarter issue.

The Real Estate Heat Index (a proprietary index I created that uses supply, demand, and home prices to calculate the general “heat” of the housing market) bumped up in Q2 in all eight of the Puget Sound Counties I track. Here’s a look at King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap:

Real Estate Heat Index: King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap

Meanwhile, affordability reversed course, falling in all eight counties, thanks to slight increases in median home prices.

Affordability Index: King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap

The full version of Sound Housing Quarterly includes detailed data and analysis for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Head over to HousingQuarterly.com to subscribe to Sound Housing Quarterly. You can also download a free single-page summary of this quarter’s report, or drop by the free archive to check out the 2008 Q3 through 2009 Q2 reports in full at no charge.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

14 comments:

  1. 1
    David S says:

    Is this a dead cat bounce?

    Or is this the road to recovery?

    This is what I want to know.

  2. 2
    ray pepper says:

    let the anarchy begin!!!…They are ALL coming back……..Not a matter of IF ……..just when………

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1554697357&play=1

  3. 3
    AndySeattle says:

    RE: David S @ 1 – I’m thinking dead cat bounce. Demand jumped due to the govt’ handout and now that it’s gone, ARM’s still resetting, foreclosures still high the supply side will outweigh the previously inflated demand and we will get back into our reset path.

  4. 4
    Dirty_Renter says:

    Conventional wisdom is that real estate is local, not national, but it just might have taken another step forward the last year and is now house to house, not local.

  5. 5
    CCG says:

    By David S @ 1:

    Is this a dead cat bounce?

    Or is this the road to recovery?

    This is what I want to know.

    America: Death Before Price Discovery ™

  6. 6
    Scotsman says:

    Dead Cat Bounce. If I had a band, I’d name it. . .

    Things that signal a true bottom:

    Consistently falling unemployment, or even better a rising percentage of the population employed

    Rising personal incomes

    Easing financing qualifications

    Growing inflation expectations.

    None of the above are even on the horizon at this time.

  7. 7
    softwarengineer says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 6

    Actually, Greenspan, Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner Amazed Me the Last 11 years

    When I bought the least amount of real esate I could in 1999 I projected current population density impacts and slam dunk wage mitigation continuing, thus I predicted a price bubble in about 2004, on my educated guess. Well, Greenspan and his gang kept the toxic asst circus going an extra 3 years….kudos for them….LOL

    Almost everyone thought I was crazy back them for projecting a price bubble, and the 1999 realtor even told me I could easily afford and qualify for twice the house I bought [even paying sizable alimony at that time]…LOL

    After the 2007 bubble pop, they now call me Mr. Softwarengineer….LOL

    There’s a few other higher incomes like me that thought the same thing in my neighborhood and we all smile at each other when we get our mail from the lock boxes. Our real estate losses were moot.

    I heard the President of PEMCO sold his house in 2007 and is renting now….a very shrewd investor :-)

  8. 8

    Geithner is the one that is amazing me. Every time I see him I think he looks very uncomfortable stating the administration’s position as being his opinion.

  9. 9
    pfft says:

    By Scotsman @ 6:

    Dead Cat Bounce. If I had a band, I’d name it. . .

    Things that signal a true bottom:

    Consistently falling unemployment, or even better a rising percentage of the population employed

    Rising personal incomes

    Easing financing qualifications

    Growing inflation expectations.

    None of the above are even on the horizon at this time.

    wrong. I’ll give you some time to fact check!

  10. 10
    DrShort says:

    By softwarengineer @ 7:

    I heard the President of PEMCO sold his house in 2007 and is renting now….a very shrewd investor :-)

    PEMCO lost a ton on Freddie/Fannie preferred stock…

  11. 11
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8

    Lying is hard.

  12. 12

    By Scotsman @ 11:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8

    Lying is hard.

    Not if you’re a real estate agent, or Treasury Secretary.
    The only thing I’ve really paid attention to about Geithner is that he was unable to sell his house in Connecticut, and had to rent it out instead.

  13. 13

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 12 – He should have proposed a tax credit for buyers of homes of Obama appointees.

  14. 14
    B&W Nikes says:

    Reading this posts headline really made me wonder if we aren’t looking at a single fly on the side of an elephant.

    Even though we demand market players and elected officials maintain this illusion, systemically, it doesn’t seem we can expect to have things both ways – perpetually affordable while perpetually increasing in value. One or the other has to give.

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