By The Tim on July 30, 2010
Here is your open thread for the weekend beginning Friday July 30th, 2010. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.
Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!
Posted in Open Thread | Tagged open_thread
Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.
Another piece on tiny houses. Nice video.
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/culture/living-large-a-look-inside-the-tiny-house-movement/2522/
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The most recent Damon Vickers podcast from 7/17 is worth a listen. He has a nice little rant about how we need housing prices to come down to a level where people will buy them.
“We need real estate to go down in price to meet the real. . . where rubber meets the road. . . where the real market is. Because the market’s not here. If the market was here then things would be selling.”
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RE: Cheap South @ 1 – That’s too great, nice piece! Tiny is the new Mobile!
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Demographics = Destiny?
I just missed the baby boom, so all the schools I went through were going through a contraction. The housing market must be entering into a similar sort of trend. I think we’re currently in the wave 2 of 4 waves of housing market oversupply:
1) People who got loans they couldn’t afford walking away (petering out)
2) People who lost their jobs and can no longer afford their homes (current)
3) Baby Boomers trying to retire with shrunken savings, selling their homes at whatever they can get to raise money (soon to get a lot of press)
4) Heirs of Baby Boomers inheriting paid-off houses and selling them for less than they would like to
Some analysis/predictions based on demographics would be nice…
I just don’t think the housing market will be coming back before the US can restructure itself into a value creation, goods & services exporting, country again.
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RE: B&W Nikes @ 3 –
You can’t imagine how many people I am meeting that tell me that if they would be alone, this would be the route they would take. Maybe not to this extreme; but more and more people are losing against the Joneses, disenchanted with the lack of job security even with a degree, and are willing to get the small plot with a small house with no debt. Quite a few are replacing the Wall Street Journal subscription with Mother Earth News (this month; how to convert a grain metal silo into a home; very cool).
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I’m glad to see it. Another lifetime ago, living in Manhattan completely and permanently changed my sense of how many square feet I thought I needed to occupy. The Tiny Houses require discretion and some open space to work well though. Close your eyes and visualize 1000s of them together… I hope they don’t get too popular!
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The Tim,
I wasn’t sure if you knew, but reading UrbnLivn has alerted me to a survey going on at Zillow for best Seattle Real Estate blog. http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Seattle-WA/#poll
Some Cooper Jacobs guy is winning. Must not be many votes yet. I’m also lollin at the PI RE blog being on there. Many good times were had with those peeps.
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RE: B&W Nikes @ 6 –
That coat closet did not even have a shower! I wonder how you get your mail?
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Tim…better close your poll on how many more banks will fail this year. Cowlitz just was put out its misery and has stopped flopping around…..
“State regulators closed Cowlitz Bank late Friday afternoon, making the Longview-based institution the eighth Washington bank to fail this year
Heritage Bank of Olympia will take over all of Cowlitz Bank’s $513.9 million in deposits.
Under the Bay Bank name, Cowlitz had branches in Seattle, Bellevue and Vancouver, as well as two more in Oregon.
It also operated four Cowlitz Bank branches in Cowlitz County. All are to reopen Saturday as Heritage Bank branches.
Cowlitz Bank was the 107th bank to be shuttered by regulators this year, as the industry continues to struggle with mounting loan defaults and a sluggish economy.”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2012494983_bank31.html
Rumor has it that it will only stick the bankrupt FDIC with $68.9 million. Of course no one will attempt to recoup the stolen loot from the goons that ran it into the ground. We can’t have anyone get in the way of the American kleptocracy.
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RE: Willy Nilly @ 8 – Her mail probably comes to the main house (where she showers). But she probably gets little mail (car registration and that’s it; cell phone can be ebill); her monthly “utilities” are $8; and that’s probably the $20 propane tank that lasts her 2.5 months. The only running water she uses is for the kitchen sink and comes from the main house (free since she helps the elder lady that lives in the main house).
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RE: Cheap South @ 10 – Great stuff.
I have a 12×16 cabin that I use as a vacation retreat. Sits on six pier blocks, and the county in which it is located does not require any permitting for it, since it falls under their ‘play house’ clause. I doubt King County is so lax, but there are still some counties that don’t try to run your lives for you. No plumbing, composting toilet in an outhouse.
Cost me $3K. I have just as much fun as the people down the road who maintain $500K vacation homes.
These things are dead-simple to build, and plans are all over the place.
For example:
http://www.jamaicacottageshop.com/
Glad to see this catching on.
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RE: wreckingbull @ 11 –
Or you can see this: http://seattletwist.com/
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Here is the link to Montesilo.
http://www.motherearthnews.com/do-it-yourself/grain-bins-z10m0gri.aspx
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I like the idea, but would probably step up to 1,000 square feet or so. Does that defeat the purpose?
http://www.rosschapin.com/Plans/Cottage/1plansCottagespage.html
This is a favorite- a real home for a couple:
http://www.rosschapin.com/Plans/Cottage/Saratoga/Saratoga.html
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RE: Scotsman @ 14 – Sure, you have to permit those as ‘real’ dwellings, but the spirit of the home remains the same – that you can be just as happy, if not happier in something that traditionally would be viewed as way too small. Those are some nice plans – very well done.
One of those, along with an inexpensive pole barn, and you are living large.
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RE: wreckingbull @ 15 –
I like his work. Given how much of our current home we really use I don’t think the transition would be that bad, especially given the trade offs- no debt, more income for travel, etc. The smaller house/more land combo works well for me. And you’re right- adding a pole barn would make a nice package!
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Update on the “Big Mac” index- who’s currency is cheap, who’s is expensive:
http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/images-magazine/2010/30/fn/201030fnc885.gif
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This is apparently what an abandoned house looks like in my neighborhood (grass not cut):
http://www.fairwoodcommunitynews.com/2010/7.10July/smallerhouse2.jpg
http://www.fairwoodcommunitynews.com/2010/7.10July/7.25.10AbandonedHomes.html
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Speaking of my neighborhood, I’ve mentioned the Fairfood shopping center before, as having allegedly forced out QFC and Big Lots. QFC has now been gone over year. The same web site indicates another smaller business is leaving after 15 years and having tried to negotiate a new lease.
http://www.fairwoodcommunitynews.com/2010/5.10May/5.28.10MartialArtstoMove.html
They also lost Hollywood Video, although that was almost certainly Hollywood Video’s doing, and the local Shell station, which might be on the same property also just shut down (although they moved their service operations into another part of what is probably the same complex).
Anyway, it’s really not clear whether this landlord has a plan or not.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 19 –
And not too far away, the Cascade Shopping Center in Renton is almost a ghost town. They used to have a QFC, a huge Bally’s Fitness, a bunch of restaurants, etc. Now the “anchor” is a combination bowling alley and Hooters, the only combination in the country, and a complex that’s probably 2/3 empty.
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Question for the economics experts here. I periodically hear good arguments for both deflation and hyper inflation, but have a hard time personally deciding which direction we are going. It seems to me that short term (maybe a year or 2) we are going to hit deflation, but then other factors come into play that take us hyper inflationary after that. I’m probably wrong as this seems to be too contradictory to occur. What are the main arguments for each case that lead one to believe one effect over the other? My assets are currently about 1/2 in silver and 1/2 in cash. Seems to be a hedge against either, but playing both sides of the spectrum don’t seem incredibly wise to me.
Oh and I have zero faith in government, so am not comfortable with bonds or stocks. They are too volatile and seem to favor banks and finance institutions. Seems that the average joe is just a sucker at the poker table bringing the free money.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 20 – That’s not nearly as good of a location, though. And I’ve not read anything about them forcing out major tenants.
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That tiny home link is very interesting. Thanks for posting it. It definitely has me thinking. I’ve entertained the dream of living in a cabin, but had concerns about creature comforts like showers. Some of these tiny houses seem to have modern amenities, but are just small. There’s something definitely appealing about that, not the least of which is that, without a heavy mortgage, retirement can happen much sooner than expected. And if the house is done right, you can just pick it up and move it to a new place when you want to relocate. I wouldn’t want one that required me to mooch of someone else, though.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 20:
Seriously? That seems like a natural fit to me.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 19 –
I know the Fairwood center but I don’t have any inside info on what’s going on there. I still eat at the Apogee in that center and in the early 1990′s my brother ran the pharmacy in the Albertsons.
My guess is that the QFC and the Ace Hardware weren’t doing that much business and the landlord wasn’t making much off those leases. I know you’ve said before that you thought the store closings were largely the landlord’s doing but I think that’s probably in part because the stores in that end of the center didn’t do a high volume of business either. With the competition from both Safeway and Albertsons, I wouldn’t be surprised if that QFC wasn’t making much profit and Kroger was low balling the landlord in the negotiations. I also think Kroger’s is slowly closing out at least some QFC’s and moving more toward the discount model with additional Fred Meyer stores. QFC also closed the Covington store recently.
I don’t know if they have enough room on that site for a Lowes or a Home Depot, but I think something like that would be a better addition for the Landlord to diversify and attract more business to the center rather than another competing grocery store. Given that Costco just went in in Covington last year, I doubt that would be likely even if they have enough space.
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RE: One Eyed Man @ 25 – It was Big Lots, not Ace that left. Ace is still there, and Big Lots is probably the one where there’s the best hearsay evidence they were forced out.
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By Lake Hills Renter @ 24:
Renton is ahead of the curve!
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RE: Richard Harrington @ 4 –
Ahhhhh….Richard, You are a Bright Honest Man
Can I write you in for a US Senate position? LOL
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26 – The Ace Hardware end of the center has seemed like kind of a loser since Pay ‘n Save and Eanst went under in the early 1990′s. If I recall correctly, Pay ‘n Save was in the Big Lot space and Ernst in the Ace Hardware space. I know the Ace Hardware is still there, but it doesn’t really have much draw other than pure convenience for the locals. A Lowes or a Home Depot would probably draw additional business that now goes to Covington or into the valley. If I were the landlord, I think I would have wanted the Big Lots out too. To me it kind of said “low end strip mall” and probably hurt the long term value of the center.
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RE: Cheap South @ 5 –
My Neighbors Down the Street Just Handed their House Keys to the Bank
I may have had something to do with it too. I enlightened them that their house loan from 2000 may be upside down today [10 years later]…..I imagined the lower income family having to pay higher risk interest rates, ARMs and such too….especially, since getting a tax assessed $120K structure [elimnate the land purchase part] to sell for like $100K would take $50-100K remodeling [like the house next door]….LOL
They’re moving to Auburn to rent in the cheap rent flood zone. The family has been a friend of my family’s for 10 years….the parents are undocumented immigrants with 5 kids.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 18 – Looks like a new shake roof….prolly the straw that broke the owners back. The article wants the neighbors to maintain it. How about suing the bank that now owns it to maintain the property? Many areas now have laws requiring such.
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RE: Pegasus @ 31 – In our neighborhood a stupid bank was actually trying to sell a house without fixing a shake roof that was leaking. I can’t tell from the minutes whether it was the HOA that got them to fix the roof, or just the bank realized that limiting itself to cash buyers only wasn’t a good strategy.
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RE: Ricoshea @ 21 –
The argument for deflation is the credit bubble. Banks, lenders, and investors bought, sold, and traded stocks, and securities based on a false equity. I have my own opinions about how, and why, but the fact is that assets are over priced.
People today are talking about low interest rates to finance purchases. Those low rates make goods, and services feel more affordable than the price you would normally pay. Auto dealers play this game all the time, by asking what you can afford to spend each month. Cars should cost about $10K, but you pay $20K because the payments are so low.
Over the past twenty years what some people claim, and I believe, is that we have had a false inflation of prices. Credit, the credit bubble, made things seem more valuable than they really are.
Bank of America is busy making huge financial commitments to businesses, today. Those loans mean very little to the bank because they borrow, buy, money at a very low rate, then lend it at a very high rate. The security is the land, equipment, and profits. Like the mergers, and acquisitions of the 1980s, when the business goes broke, the bank ends up with the assets.
The reason you don’t see it is because banks trade the paper. Banks sell Notes, then service them. Banks make money by putting money in play. Banks collect interest, servicing fees, and manage the assets. Financial programs are set up to show huge profit with little, or no risk. The same bank can buy, sell, and trade in insurance that will protect against losses. A company can get a loan, go broke, and the bank will collect all the way around.
False inflation, once taken out of the equation of asset appreciation, still needs to be paid off, or defaulted, or sent back to the bank who can only sell it for a discount.
True inflation, or causing true inflation, is another problem any government in the world would have right now. Driving up the cost of commodities would have a negative impact on the global economy. There needs to be some equilibrium in the market place or we collapse another segment of the economy. If oil goes up too much in price transportation of goods becomes to expensive. Corn goes up, farmers grow more, and the price goes down, putting some subsistence farmers out of business.
So, right now we are in a holding pattern to see who will do the right thing. The financial markets are in a shambles. No government intervention will fix the credit mess we have, it’s to extensive, in every corner of the world.
My solution is to make more money, pay debt, and help others. There is a lot of opportunity in the world. Many people, individuals, need your help. Avoid banks, or credit unions, and invest your money in a tangible plan for increasing your wealth. Micro lending on a very limited scale, in things you have control over, in your community, seems the best.
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RE: Ricoshea @ 21 –
Deflation. We’ve already had the inflation as shown in current asset prices. Credit and cash are both “money” and given we have the highest levels of debt (credit) ever by a wide margin we have already inflated as much as we probably can. The amount of currency in circulation is very, very small compared to the credit/debt, so printing more money (cash) will do very little to expand the money supply and drive addition inflation beyond what we already have.
Hyper inflation is out since the U.S. doesn’t currently have a legal way to make it happen. If that changed, it still probably won’t happen as it would drive the U.S. toward third world status through currency devaluations. Although you will hear a bunch of talk about printing our way out to reduce the impact of current debt there are a host of significant reasons why that will not happen. Defaulting on select foreign held debts is a more likely option and even that has little probability. IF inflation is ever seriously in the cards you will hear about it long before it starts.
Most likely scenario in my opinion? Several years of deflation and continued asset destruction then several years of flat before returning to traditional levels of inflation. Not very exciting, but politically doable. Outside of that, the options are all pretty severe and probably involve political disruptions on a major scale- revolution of some sort and a major restructuring of markets and political entities. In that case you want tools, equipment, and skills, not cash or silver. For now? I’m all cash, and working to get more, preparing to purchase assets at the bottom which is obviously still to come.
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Thanks David, that still brings me a lot to think about…seems like an argument for both deflation and inflation still. Doesn’t the credit bubble create a dichotomy where things like houses, securities and stocks deflate, but the costs of real world needs like food, energy and water hyper inflate because of more government printing to counteract the deflation? I guess I’m still fuzzy.
Found a set of video articles that is pretty helpful in particular I think Pfft should check out the Chapter 16 video. He usually brings up GDP vs debt. This piece dispels much of this myth, showing how every president back into the 60′s regardless of political party has changed the definition, in particular against inflation and how it is measured to show rising GDP, when in fact there has been a lot more of a recession than is reported in that stat. It also talks about the CPI and how they massage that number in one direction using hedonics, yet using hedonics in the exact opposite way for GDP in order to boost the numbers.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-16-fuzzy-numbers
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RE: Scotsman @ 14 – Not at all. As I mentioned, I think the 400sq.ft. units are a bit extreme for a couple (gotta love being able to tow it to some other lot though). Let’s face it; it’s an RV with better insulation and looks. I think anything around 1000sq.ft. for 2 people is perfect. Wood for heating; propane for cooking; LED lighting with a small solar system; and a shower. No mortgage, very few monthly expenses. I wonder how many boomers will have no other choices.
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I’ve been wondering if 400-500ft would do it for me. The place I’m renting is ~800sf and I use about half of it. It’s the creature comforts that would be tough — I’m not planning on going hippie. I can live without a dishwasher, but not sure about not having a washer/dryer. Maybe I could squeeze a stackable in there. And what about things like water heaters? Do they use the new tankless ones? I figure I can get TV through satellite if cable’s not available, although TV has degraded so much in the last few years I rarely watch it. Xbox and DVD player should cover entertainment. Laptop instead of a full computer, internet through wherever cable comes in.
Still thinking it through, but it sounds… possible. Of course, the cost is in the land. Where do you put it?
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RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 37 – A tankless water heater (which by the way, are not new and the norm in most other countries) would be perfect for a single bathroom application (their only limiting factor is volume). If you want a clothes dryer, you’ll need to bring 240V to the home.
You can get TV over the air (flat 20″-26″ LED) I am fine with networks and PBS; cell company provided internet at laptop.
And yes, the big show stopper is the land. But as soon as my kids get out of the house, this will definitely be in the cards.
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RE: Cheap South @ 38 –
I’m looking pretty seriously at this option too. Another positive is the ability to afford a couple of different locations where you own the land and still spend much less than the cheapest house in Seattle.
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RE: Scotsman @ 39 – RE: Cheap South @ 38 – RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 37 – I am amazed…I had dreams of going native when I was young and stupid…now I am older and not much brighter but really guys..are you intending to completely drop out? Got kids, grandkids, friends? I guess they won’t be spending time with you in the future at your place. Why not completely get into it and live in an efficient teepee? Burn wood for heat and cooking. Who needs toilets when you have the great outdoors? Why not just live out of the back of your vehicles? Plenty of room in the trunk for any relatives that drop by.
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RE: Scotsman @ 39 –
Ah, the mobile home park. A land full of gypsies may indeed be interesting provided you can predict (and accept) the behavior patterns of large herds of mobile people. This pattern may work with the Bedouin, but as soon as you get a large pool of people doing this I think you will get folks ganging and stacking these units together, then you have Tijuana, Mumbai, or if you stack them high enough you might get a condo tower. This may only work for those without kids who aren’t seeking a good school district or someone trying to build community or maintain a career. Cracker boxes may make for great fun in high winds, and if you coat the bottom well enough it just may float.
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RE: Scotsman @ 34 –
“We’ve already had the inflation as shown in current asset prices. Credit and cash are both “money†and given we have the highest levels of debt (credit) ever by a wide margin we have already inflated as much as we probably can.”
Credit is future dollars, inflation is lagging, but in time it was supposed to catch up, and credit would be paid in real dollars.
The problem probably started with the 30 year mortgage, and revolving credit. The interest payments account for the future dollars. In the 1980s however, with inflation, it was possible to pay down the debt faster. At the same time high interest rates, to counter act inflation, drove down asset prices, due to the higher payments. The game was in reverse.
I suspect that the 1980s were still very much in the minds of financial engineers who hyper inflated pricing with low payments. Credit is a false inflation. Even though prices went up, the actual value stayed low.
The only way out is for every one to pay down debt. Private consumers, and government alike, have to be on the same page, and reduce debt until actual values can be restored.
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Pegasus @ 40:
Hyperbole much? I said nothing about dropping out. If I could have the same lifestyle I have now, but in half the house and much less cost, then that’s to be seriously considered. It means I could retire much earlier and spend more of my life doing the things I want to do, instead of slaving my life away for a paycheck. There’s no point in a single guy, who plans to stay that way, buying a large house.
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Epic Fail from the Federal Government. New Chevy volt: $40,000. Fed tax subsidy: $7,500. Is this right up there with the home buyer credit? Why should we pay?
“Where does the federal government get off spending the average person’s tax dollars to help better-off-than-average Americans buy expensive new cars?”
“How rarefied is the electric-car demographic? When Deloitte Consulting interviewed industry experts and 2,000 potential buyers, it found that from now until 2020, only “young, very high income individuals”—those from households making more than $200,000 a year—would even be interested in plug-in hybrids or all-electric cars. This “small number” of people will provide “nowhere near the volume needed for mass adoption.” They will be concentrated in Southern California, where weather, state regulations, and infrastructure are all favorable to electric vehicles”
http://www.slate.com/id/2262229/pagenum/all/
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RE: Pegasus @ 40 – RE: Willy Nilly @ 41 –
Check out the link in my post #14. these are real houses, detailed and nicely built, but not 3,000 square feet. I could see building a few of them in a small village type setting on a lake in eastern Washington so there would be room for all your friends and family- with privacy.
As for the tiny houses in the original link, at some point it’s both easier and cheaper to just buy a used motor home or trailer. But the idea remains- if we spend less on housing, what else are we freed up to do?
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RE: Scotsman @ 45 – Your dream is already being done in Eastern Washington although not around waterfront. Mostly you find these settlements surrounding the fruit orchards. Its called migrant worker housing. Enjoy!
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An interview with Alan Greenspan this morning:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-01/greenspan-says-decline-in-u-s-home-prices-might-bring-back-the-recession.html
We are at a tipping point (as we all know). So Tim are you going to start a pool on when the next bailout announced?
It is very difficult these days to make any sort of informed predictions on where or economy is headed when our executive branch keeps throwing down trump cards.
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A distilled living situation is certainly of merit. In a fringe situation this approach could be very satisfying as well as functional. Like some other ideas such as bartering or biodiesel, they can work on a smaller scale, but once you start increasing complexity in society these type of things become very limiting. Many recipes do not double well.
I think when large groups of people do it that is where you begin to have problems. Sanitation is a large problem to solve, public safety, rule of law, insurance, national security, etc. I am all for living a more natural, primitive lifestyle but the dilemma becomes human nature. Many people need possessions to get validation and establish their perceived position in society. The whole undeveloped world wants creature comforts and big houses – the lifestyle we have in the US. I think you have to have the huge house to see the pitfalls, and those who live in tight quarters are never going to believe someone telling them that smaller and more simple is a better way to go.
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RE: Willy Nilly @ 48 – So let me get this straight from you guys. Living in a smaller home, let’s say 400-1000 square feet means:
1. Sanitation problems
2. Living in a migrant worker shantytown.
3. A national security threat.
4. Self-imposed exile, as you can’t invite anyone over.
5. Lack of self esteem, due to the inability to self-validate with a large home and a trove of possessions.
What did I miss? There must be more.
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RE: Willy Nilly @ 48 –
Status- buying things you can’t afford with money you don’t really have, to impress people who really don’t care, who really don’t like you, and who you wouldn’t like if you really got to know them. Remind me why I need it?
I’ve lived in a $million+ waterfront home, much nicer than where we live now, and worked seven days a week to support it, as did my wife. I wasn’t any happier. Really. The idea of living well below my means has an appeal that hard to convey. I’m tired of thinking about money all the time. Surplus and control is going to be the new happy.
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RE: Scotsman @ 50 – RE: wreckingbull @ 49 – Hehe I am not saying you have to have a big trophy house and big toys to validate your life. I just think you guys are being a bit too frugal without considering the consequences of your intended homes. There is a place that already exists within an hour of Seattle that you should find perfect for your living standards. It is up over Snoqualmie Pass close to Easton that I stumbled into about 15 years ago. The place is almost unaccessible and appears to be an old logging or mining town that had been taken over. I don’t know whether the inhabitants are leasing the old homes or have bought the area but it truly is a step back in time. The houses were all small and old. They even had a small church in their community. As I drove around their small community I was followed with suspicious looks. The children were called into their respect homes by women dressed as one would in the 1800′s. The area appeared neat and one could see nice homemade curtains in each window. I don’t recall that they had electricity.
Several years passed and I was traveling in the area again with the same friend. We decided to check into Shangri La again. This time the road in was plastered with hand painted signs saying “Dead End”, No Turn Around”, “Keep Out”. I knew the signs did not apply to me as I was armed. The place looked much the same as were the greetings of cold, hostile stares mostly from peering eyes in the windows. The church had a sign on it that said “Preacher Wanted”. I oft wonder whether they filled the position. Perhaps it is still open awaiting one of you dreamers of your own bit of self imposed austerity…..
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RE: wreckingbull @ 49 –
I think you are thinking along the lines of a smaller house with the same reality. The idea of a mobile, super cheap, no obligation (utilities, taxes, etc) place is what is being toyed with here. I was driving through Tacoma yesterday and saw plenty of houses smaller than 1000sf. Plenty of tight living spaces in Europe, and then there is Tokyo. People do it all the time elsewhere. Our society will need to either be reprogrammed to accept/desire a new reality, or adopt it by not other choice.
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