Weekly Twitter Digest (Link Roundup) for 2010-08-28

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

8 comments:

  1. 1
    HappyRenter says:

    Concerning the article “Seattle: Still super special!!!”: The title looks promising “Double-dip recession or not, Seattle region still better off than most areas”, but the picture painted for Seattle in the article itself is very dreary.

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  2. 2
    Scotsman says:

    I like this observation in the “I Want A Pony” piece:

    “Somewhere in the 2000s, much of America became like Phoenix, where real estate was the economy, rather than the consequence of a real, productive economy.”

    So true- once the rise in real estate started the money snowballed in, a self-sustaining and reinforcing marvel of group-think and bubble mania. All the while others were talking about the FIRE economy (finance, insurance, and real estate) and whether it could be sustained without a manufacturing base in the face of a now truly globalized economy. While real estate prices were headed up!, up!, up! average wages in our now largely service focused economy were stagnant or headed down. Yet only a few saw the growing gap in true affordability once the financing trick of the day passed. Who really thought negative am loans were going to work out?

    Something I always try to remember is the saying “cash flow wins in the end.” There are lots of accounting tricks and gimmicks, but still no way to truly alter or rearrange reality, making honest debts disappear or new cash suddenly appear. The cash flow has to balance out. Prices have to match income, both in the present, and as a trend.

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  3. 3
    karl says:

    I am with Happyrenter on that one.

    Wow, sounds pretty dire… and we are in better shape then most?

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  4. 4
    HappyRenter says:

    By karl @ 3:

    I am with Happyrenter on that one.

    I guess the explanation is in the first sentence: “If low expectations are the key to happiness, why do we feel so bad? ” Maybe Seattleites are happy with whatever they have. Forget about the economy and the fact that you might lose (or might have lost) your job and instead keep hiking, enjoying your latte, etc. Simply lower your expectations until they are met. I guess, this was the message of the article.

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  5. 5
    atcguru says:

    In the Kiro news article I noticed this quote:

    “I think we probably still have another year before we really get down to the housing equilibrium around here,” said Ellis.

    Tim, IYHO (and, trust me, I’m not holding you to this), when do you feel the optimal time for buyers might be now? I remember reading about a year ago that you felt – correct me if I misstate this – that the end of 2010 might be the bottom. You thinking now maybe winter 2011-2012? That’s kinda what I’m thinking, but this winter may be just as good for buyers. I’m interested ’cause I want to buy a condo in Seattle.

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  6. 6
    HappyRenter says:

    By atcguru @ 5:

    In the Kiro news article I noticed this quote:

    “I think we probably still have another year before we really get down to the housing equilibrium around here,” said Ellis.

    Tim, IYHO (and, trust me, I’m not holding you to this), when do you feel the optimal time for buyers might be now? I remember reading about a year ago that you felt – correct me if I misstate this – that the end of 2010 might be the bottom. You thinking now maybe winter 2011-2012? That’s kinda what I’m thinking, but this winter may be just as good for buyers. I’m interested ’cause I want to buy a condo in Seattle.

    I think the right time to buy is when Tim’s post will read “I bought a house yesterday!” Then it’s time to get out and buy! ;)

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  7. 7
    HappyRenter says:

    RE: HappyRenter @ 6
    Sorry, just kidding.

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  8. 8

    RE: atcguru @ 5 – The condo market is different from SFR, and some condos will be much different than other condos.

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