Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to June data,
Flat May to June (up 0.01%).
Down 1.8% YOY.
Down 23.6% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices rose 0.4% from May to June and year-over-year prices were down 16.1%.
Considering that June was the last month of the tax credit, I actually expected to see about a 1% month-to-month bump. I’m rather surprised that Seattle was flat.
Here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. All four cities actually turned down slightly on this chart in June. Year-over-year, Portland came in at +0.2%, Los Angeles at +9.2%, and San Diego at +11.2%. Seattle is still the only West Coast Case-Shiller city still falling year-to-year.
Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including interactive charts of all 20 cities.
Here’s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):
Fifteen of thirty Case-Shiller-tracked cities are now in positive YOY territory: Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Washington DC, Miami, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, Cleveland, Portland, and Dallas. Yes, even Detroit is outperforming Seattle YOY. Ouch.
In June, seventeen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw year-over-year increases) than Seattle (three more than May):
- San Francisco at +14.3%
- San Diego at +11.2%
- Minneapolis at +10.7%
- Los Angeles at +9.2%
- Washington, DC at +7.3%
- Phoenix at +6.0%
- Boston at +3.4%
- Atlanta at +2.0%
- Denver at +1.8%
- Dallas at +1.2%
- Miami at +1.1%
- Cleveland at +0.8%
- Detroit at +0.8%
- New York at +0.2%
- Portland at +0.2%
- Chicago at -0.1%
- Tampa at -1.6%
Falling faster than Seattle as of June: Charlotte, and Las Vegas.
Here’s an interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through June.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the thirty-four months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 23.6%, slightly less than last month.
Here’s a complementary chart to that last one. This one shows the total change in the index since last March for the same twelve markets as the peak decline chart.
Still a bit of a boost, but not nearly the spike I was expecting to see across the board for the last month of the tax credit. Even San Francisco, which has been going gangbusters, tapered off for just a slight bump in June.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 08.31.2010)
We will remain flat with a trendline down for many years. Still way too overpriced here in the PNW.
This statement IS intended to be predictive and VERY obvious.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Again, it’s time to get rid of that silly offset chart and produce that same data without the offset. And that probably shouldn’t be the first chart, but instead the raw C-S data should be first.
As to the rest, I think you’re showing a bit of negative bias in at least a couple places.
From article: “Fifteen of thirty Case-Shiller-tracked cities are now in positive YOY territory: Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Washington DC, Miami, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, Cleveland, Portland, and Dallas. Yes, even Detroit is outperforming Seattle YOY. Ouch.”
Except for four of those (DC, Portland, Atlanta and Dalas), they all had much larger YOY drops as of last year, so a YOY recovery is more expected. I’m not going to check them all off again, but I think Las Vegas is the only one that had a larger fall that isn’t positive (so that’s the city that is ouch!). Of the four that didn’t have larger drops, only DC is doing significantly better than Seattle, which isn’t a surprise given the large federal presence.
The bounce since 3/09 chart is affected by the same bias, but I guess you need to have a follow up to the decline since peak chart, since that shows Seattle having done fairly well overall in comparison to all but 3 or 20 cities. Somehow I don’t see that mentioned either! ;-)
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Kary L. Krismer @ 2:
The very next chart is the same data without the offset. With all 30 cities and the two composite indices.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: The Tim @ 3 – You’re right. That would make it rather easy to get rid of the silly chart.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Kary L. Krismer @ 2:
It sounds like we agree then that the very reason Seattle is performing poorly in the “bounce chart” is because it did so “well” in the decline from peak chart.
In other words, Seattle wasn’t really done correcting before the tax credit kicked in.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: The Tim @ 5 – It’s a fair assumption that the tax credit helped the C-S numbers (whereas it might have actually harmed the median numbers). But trying to guess how Seattle would have done without the tax credit is like trying to determine what unemployment would be like without the stimulus. Very difficult, if not impossible. But I’m not going to say the effect was zero, like some Rs are trying to do with unemployment.
But yes, cities that have done well since the peak will tend to do worse YOY, and cities that have done poorly since the peak will tend to do better YOY (assuming they were still doing worse a year ago).
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Check out the “new” William Buchan development on 212th/Thompson Hill in Sammamish. 4.000 sq. ft. and up, starting in the low $900′s. Let the good times roll!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
“Considering that June was the last month of the tax credit, I actually expected to see about a 1% month-to-month bump. I’m rather surprised that Seattle was flat.”
Me too, I also thought that some price momentum would carry into July before the next phase down would start in earnest with August’s c/s numbers. Now it looks like it could start already in July.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By principals @ 35:
I clicked on a random link. it was personal income and outlays.
here is what you said:
“jobs and income have been negative”
Personal income, current dollars march to july:
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.2
so personal income increased each month so I guess that proves me wrong?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 2 –
Spoken like a true Realtor! Get rid of the negative news!
Just keep repeating: “it’s a great time to buy a house- rates are low, prices are down, sellers are looking to sell before fall.” And don’t despair- its been said there’s a sucker born every minute.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Scotsman @ 9:
if you look at the trend in the chart you can make the case that seattle will go positive YOY very soon. looks like it will be within my sumer of 2010-spring 2011 timeframe.
of course by the time YOY goes positive you’ve already missed the bottom!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Redfin might need to adjust its policy to reflect the new reality in the area. The note: “Redfin does not provide service for properties with list prices less than $175,000.” is popping quite often. There are quite a few units under that price in East/central King and South Snohomish (play with the interactive map). Of course their commission/incentive would also need adjustment.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I think the offset decline from peak graph would be a lot more interesting if it was seasonally adjusted data.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
So where do the citizens that can still qualify for 0-5% down, ponzi loans to support $400 – $800K loans that will be underwater effectively when the ink drys on the signed documents come from to continue YoY positive percentages? The H1Bs to help support Microsoft and our own little silicon alley with a continued reduction in pay to match their IT budgets? Boeing and the blue collars between lynnwood and standwood to continue to support new plane programs that are continually delayed? Gregoire and/or Murray .gov hiring of new desk jockeys?
Bernanke and Geithners bazooka threats are done with, and Banks will not be able to continue the deleveraging through the freddie and fannie ponzi only to accumulate and sell off more ponzi.
Ray and Softie I believe are still right, where pfft and Kary are totally off base trying to support their own nut with trying to have .gov to continue to support the ponzi they can make money off of.
It’s not the population of people that make between $120 – $500K a year that is the issue, it has always been the population of people (single and dual incomes) that make between $60 – $90K / yr that SHOULDNT be buying and living in anything above $315K homes with 20% down payments. That’s the majority of people here in PNW between Everett and Seattle, and their take home pay continues to go down, not up! They should not be leveraged at 45-60% total DTI for Homes, CC’s and Autos. They are realizing that to sustain a good PNW life, they need to be at 38-42% total DTI for Homes, CC’s and Autos, and even the lowest of all interest rates in generations still isn’t getting them to those numbers with prices where they still are!
We are in the bottom of the 5th inning folks with this supposed recovery but in reality a depression.
As others have eloquently stated here, show people like myself the math of where true recovery is coming from, and jobs and incomes are increasing, all without the need to support ponzi loans, then we will believe you. Until then – math doesnt lie!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By principals @ 13:
we know we are in recovery. the data says nothing but. the recession ended last summer. manufacturing and non-manufacturing is not contracting but expanding. unemployment peaked awhile ago.
I think you are confusing recovery the process with recovery the destination. the fire has been put out, the rubble has been shipped away and the framing is being set up. that doesn’t mean the house is rebuilt.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Regarding “trying to have .gov to continue to support the ponzi” it seems more than the SB crowd is starting to see the waste. Better late than never.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/31/real_estate/federal_housing_programs.fortune/index.htm
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By pfft @ 14
Nope, wrong again. With government and big business (Wall St.) ponzi since ’08, there has been no recovery. GDP has been negative, jobs and income have been negative, and .gov has replaced the private economy with their schemes to the tune of about 12% GDP. That’s where the problem lies, and the pain will now be greater going forward to truly “recover” than taking the medicine upfront like we should have in ’07, ’02 and ’94. But math, she is a b!tch, and she will always bring us back to reality. In case of home prices / values, yes, we, the PNW, will continue to trend lower for the foreseeable future until the ponzi is dealt with properly. Good luck out there!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By principals @ 16:
in god we trust all others bring data. you need data.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Cheap South @ 11 –
I think what they’re saying is, “It’s not worth it for us to bother with <$200k properties". Considering their services, I don't know why they'd want to bother with them.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
This whole situation is very frustrating to those of us on the sidelines that want to buy but know our limits. According to Ray the prices could take years to go down to a sustainable level. I love Seattle but we are debating on how long we are willing to wait for greedy sellers to stop setting bubble prices. The number of people I talk to that think the bubble years were normal, is crazy. Everybody I talk to are banking on houses being the cash cow.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: pfft @ 17 –
“all others bring data.”
Why, it won’t sway you from your #1 pumper perspective. When the blinders are on you can’t see the data anyway. And if you did then there’s the whole comprehension issue. Nope, I’d say you’re in the Krugman camp until he’s finally run out of town. It won’t be long now.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Kary L. Krismer @ 4:
Agree.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
The price of homes is tied to supply, demand and ability to pay.
IMHO, the ability to pay is not going up as income levels of people entering the workforce is going down or unemployed because the increase in new jobs is not keeping up with people entering the workforce. How many people do you know that are making money hand over fists, getting great promotions and salary increases? For me I just know people that just make it by hand to mouth and they are making $100K a year. Or, unemployed, shacking up with someone employed and getting a unemployment check.
It seems to me that taxes are going to be increasing at the local, state and federal levels. State of Washington proxies are going to do everything possible to drive through an income tax this fall. Just waiting for the TV commercials to start about how the income tax is needed for “the children” and to help the fight against Al-Qaeda (i.e. using fear as a political tactic to get it passed).
So, long story short people have less income.
Next factor could be IMHO a significant percentage of homes in Seattle are owned “Baby Boomers” that are going to be selling (die, retiring, downsizing, moving). Ultimately homes have to turn over and be provided to people entering the housing market. Are these home going to be affordable to new home buyers? No, there’s no affordable entry level homes in Seattle to people just making normal entry level wages.
Long story short, more supply.
How do people feel about their future? Are they optimistic or pessimistic? Should you wait to see if the federal tax credit will be reinstated, is WA getting an income tax in November, is home prices going to continue to down. My opinion leans toward pessimism and uncertainty that is freezing out buyers making a decision.
In short, people are pessimestic about their future.
“Don’t Worry, Be Happy”. I read on SeattleBubble.com that the C-S index went up for two months straight. My realtor says, “Buy now before the prices go back up or you’ll miss your chance. You can always get a roommate. Or, shack up and use that 2nd income to pay the mortgage. Don’t worry about that relationship breaking up in 2-3 years. We’ll get a 5 year ARM, pay zero principal and flip that house in 5 years and make loads of money”.
Okay, joking aside.
All I can say is for me; I’ve given up on buying a home in Seattle. They are overpriced and the construction quality is shoddy. Now, I put the maximum into 401K and Roth each year instead of on a home payment; minimize spending for luxury items and putting cash away so in 10 years. I’m moving to Costa Rica and living on the beach, collecting 20% (as Hans Gruber would have said).
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: principals @ 16 – Some kind of recovery. I know, lagging indicators.
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/08/wrong-direction.html
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Considering that Case Shiller is a three month average with a 2-month lag, I’m also surprised that Seattle didn’t receive at least a 1% bump. The months of April, May, June should have been decent considering people were still in the market to close with the tax credit. Next months data, and particularly October’s data, will most likely show some pretty steep declines. November’s data (Sept, Aug, July) might be the worst CS data we’ve seen in a while considering sales have fallen dramatically in recent months.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Scotsman @ 20:
what data am I misinterpreting?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Scotsman @ 9:
Spin is not news. Be it positive or negative.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: pfft @ 17 – I don’t think his data is any better than his sentence structure.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Jerdobi @ 22:
I’m not so sure that’s a bad thing. Maybe it would get more first time buyers back into traditional first time homes.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Matthew @ 24 – On the expected 1% bump, I want to know what you and Tim are smoking! Except for the mean having jumped up in June, what data has there been that would cause anyone to expect a 1% jump? The only thing I can think of is volume, but volume wasn’t that high and there wasn’t really a shortage of listings.
There was perhaps a shortage of listings in good condition, but C-S can’t tell that in their sales figures. They don’t know in their numbers that someone is buying a fixer, planning on using their $8k to fix it up.
Stated differently, and to be clear, the sale of fixers to people getting an 8k credit could have drug C-S down. Again, C-S does not know the condition of the property sold.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By ray pepper @ 1:
They’re all coming back. People will only remain stupid for so long ;)
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Urban Artist @ 19:
I’m with you 100% on that.
By Urban Artist @ 19:
Many times I’ve heard people talk about the market “getting back to normal” in the future. They’ll sell their house for big money when things get “back to normal.” Or they’ll be back above water when things get “back to normal.” By normal they must mean 10% appreciation per year and homeless people getting mortgages.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: BillE @ 31 – 10% is an exaggeration, but realize that locally we went for something like 20 years without a YOY end of year decrease. So to a lot of people that is “normal.”
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: BillE @ 30 –
Hey!!!
Thats my favorite line!!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Urban Artist @ 19 –
Urban remember you only need to buy 1…There will be 1000′s of Gems that will appear over this next 10 years. Continue to be patient and always look. Timing and having the cash ready will be essential.
Homes will continue to decline for many years and make your offers based on this.
All the underwater ones are ALL coming back………….Bank on it! 10% to sell in this State combined with negativity= short sales and foreclosures for a decade!
Keep looking!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By pfft @ 17
My favorite chart:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallery=13
Data that tears down the ponzi and lies and supports the chart linked above as well as the fact there was no recovery but the pffts and pumpers and ponzi supporters of the world love to ignore:
Fed data:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20100810.htm
http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/g19/Current/
BEA data:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
DOL data:
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20101073.htm
Census data:
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
BLS data:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Third party analysis:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bernankes-blind-spot-pd20100830-8T8HE?OpenDocument&src=sph
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/ct-oped-0810-byrne-20100810,0,4297678.column
How to read my favorite chart:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165033
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By pfft @ 17
plagiarism
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I agree with Kary that the offset chart needs to be retired. But I appreciate the raw HPI chart, which I find the most informative especially when you start the chart in 1987.
Re data, GDP figures
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2010/pdf/gdp2q10_2nd.pdf
show that the period of GDP decline was 3rd quarter 08 through 2nd quarter 09. Since then output has been rising, which is what “recovery” means. Pfft is right on the data and principals is wrong. Principals seems to think “recovery” means all is suddenly right with the world, so it’s disproven if there are still large problems. Nope. We’ve just been through the worst downturn since the Depression, and any conceivable path out of that will be hard and long.
But pfft may be too optimistic about the future. The 2010 2nd-quarter rise of 1.6% is anemic, and we will likely bump along around 10% unemployment for a while, which is bad enough in the short run and has terrible long-term consequences. And as any reader of this blog knows there’s still a lot of bad debt out there. A double dip is certainly possible, as is a Japan-1980s scenario of years of liquidity-trap low growth, high unemployment, and deflation.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: pfft @ 15 – The rubble has been shipped away? Classic. If you mean the toxic waste has been buried under three feet of topsoil on which we are building the new ‘house’, then you are spot on.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
The Fed’s next move- buying houses and stocks to support prices as they have done with bonds and mbs, etc? That would be fun. Remember as you read this that the Fed is indeed a private bank, owned by it’s member banks, not the U.S. government:
” Bernanke will soon make stock purchases an outright policy of the Federal Reserve as its last ditch attempt to engender inflation before the hundreds of billions of Commercial Real Estate and other bank debt start maturing in 2011/2012. Bernanke is running out of time and he knows it. And once the Fed becomes the bidder of last resort in stocks, all bets are off, as the Central Bank will become the defacto only market in virtually every risky category. ”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/michael-pento-says-fed-will-buy-stocks-and-real-estate-its-next-attempt-create-inflation
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Just wondering. What would happen if congress extended the tax credit for, let’s say, another 12 months? Would prices be flat, increase or decrease? And then, what if they decided to extend it for another 12 months, and then another 12 months for the next 5 years? This, in the hope that the US would somehow eventually get out of the recession, be able to pay off its debt and have again a strong economy.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By ray pepper @ 1:
As bad as it is out there Ray, I hope you and your agents are selling a slug of houses. Your 75% cash back deal is almost too good to be true. Nearest I can tell, your agents are better than most; yet, your clients get a massive pile of cash back after they purchase. Note to self: leave a big tip for Ray’s agent after I buy.
That being said, government gimmicks do not work over the long term. This is not news to you or I, but surprisingly, it’s news to many.
There is no better time to save money for a house than right now. The down payment will go up, and the house price will go down. It’s a genius move, has been for years, and will continue to be so for some time to come. I know I keep repeating this like a broken record, but I can’t emphasize enough how rapidly this strategy has improved my financial situation these last years. I started out looking for a shack I could afford and ended up looking at Puget Sound waterfront by the time I saved a little money and prices plunged. And it didn’t actually require any intelligence or effort on my part. All it took was fear of losing my down payment and winding up underwater.
Everyone keeps talking about how great things are, so you better jump in before you miss the bottom. And here’s the crazy part, everyone who has jumped in so far has missed it and wound up underwater. Buying right now should not be thought of as the way to hit the bottom, it should be thought of as a sure fire way to miss it. The bottom is 8 miles wide. It will be impossible to miss when it arrives.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Kary L. Krismer @ 6:
Actually, it’s extremely easy. Compare June home sales to July. :)
Rate this comment:
0 
0
“Everyone who has jumped in so far is underwater. ”
Everyone??? Really?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Urban Artist @ 20:
And all it takes for them to realize their dreams of buying cheap with zero down and a lousy credit score and ending up rich, is for you to part with your hard earned real money during the period the government is artificially propping up prices.
The absolute best strategy is to keep saving your down payment until these bubble buying fools lose their rear ends. 20% of them are already underwater, and we’re just getting started. The government can slow the price decline, but it can’t stop prices from falling to what the majority of buyers can ultimately afford to pay. It’s a simple function with inputs and outputs that are easily understood.
If you must buy now, low ball the sellers until their eyes bleed. Make no mistake, it’s a buyer’s market, and you deserve a premium for taking the massive risk associated with buying just prior to the second leg down.
Don’t bid on anything but exact fit cherries. Each seller has a different level of needing to sell. Keep lowballing until you find one that absolutely needs to sell. If your lowball offer doesn’t make you feel just a little bit guilty, it’s not low enough.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Racket @ 44:
Does a bear sh!t in the woods?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By wreckingbull @ 39:
we had our recession. one of the longest in history. total carnage. now we are repairing.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ray pepper @ 35 – Could you elucidate the 10% to sell statement?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Jonness @ 42 –
Jonness our Agents get payed quite well. 4000.00 average per transaction is more then enough..
We never sell a “slug” of homes because we are VERY picky with the clients we choose to take on. We send alot away to Red Fin, Findwell, and Zip when they do NOT fit our parameters.
But, remember we have no debt and hardly any overhead so we have the luxury to be picky. This is why I believe there will be 1000′s of rebating brokerages in the years to come.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Bought a house last year. Very happy.
$30K down??? Whatever!
Life is going on. We really enjoy it, kids like it.
Yes, you can wait for 10 years and buy it on the very bottom, but… are you really ready to wait? :)
A few days ago I searched for a houses similar to ours on Zillow, RedFin, Windermere sites and THERE ARE VERY FEW HOUSES FOR SALE!!! Something like 10 houses in our zip code. Last summer we had a very good selection but now there are very few similar houses for sale and half of them SHORT SALES.
Don’t trust Zillow and RedFin prices, they are BS.
You’ll see what I’m talking about if you are buying now.
It’s hard to find a good built house and they are still expensive. I’m not talking about all these crappy houses built in 2009-2010.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: zipzippygc @ 48 –
assuming you do NOT use 500 Realty or MLS 4 owners to sell your costs to sell in this state:
3% listing office
3% selling office
about 2% in excise tax
about 2% in:
title
escrow
other fees
Theres your 10%. Combine that with home owners who are upside down 15-30% you now have your recipe for short sale or foreclosure. 1000′s coming over many years because…….dare I say it?………………”people will only remain stupid for so long”
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ray pepper @ 50 –
Just to be clear, there are a number of options to pay less than a 3% listing fee other than MLS4Owners or 500 Realty, and there are a number of brokers who will refund some of the selling office commission to buyers. Besides MLS4Owners and 500 Realty, Redfin is less than 3%. Sutton charges 1% to list. My Secret Agent charges 95 dollars. A number of ” traditional” agents like myself typically list for less than 3% and rebate money to buyers. MLS4Owners and 500 Realty may be wonderful options to save money on commissions. They’re just not the only options.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 51 –
Agreed but look at this: http://www.mysecretagent.com/
What a rip…95.00 for a 3 month listing? Can anyone sell in 3 months? NO!
1 photo? You and I both know it takes less then 2 minutes to upload 15 photos
60.00 to rent their key box with a 100 deposit?
God almighty look at this: http://www.mysecretagent.com/listingtools.html
We charge 100.00 for everything ALL INCLUSIVE…Personally I have never seen My Secret Agent signs so I had to look them up.
RedFin charges way to much to list @ 1.5% and Sutton at 1% is also way too much but hey….thats just my opinion.
I have always been a fan of MLS 4 Owners and always say for god sake if you do NOT list with 500 Realty then I urge you to look at MLS 4 Owners. Some of these Brokerages that have a shopping cart of fees make me sick.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ray pepper @ 52 –
OK Ray, I think 3% is cheap to list a property, but I have done 1% listings for people who have bought through me. It takes a lot to get a property sold for top dollar. My company A Spring Cleaning has prepared thousands of properties for sale, and we know that the photo on line doesn’t get a property sold for top dollar.
Top Dollar is the catch phrase here my friend. You can always be a rube, but you have to pay to play.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Jonness @ 43:
$383,000 to $399,950? I actually predicted something like that! ;-)
Assuming you’re talking volume and not prices (which I was), I almost responded to a post a few above yours, that hypothesized repeated 12 month extensions of the credit, I almost responded that you can expect volume to drop right after a credit expiring. It definitely does borrow from the future, or whatever the term is Tim likes to use. The question is, how far in the future?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 55 –
“$383,000 to $399,950? I actually predicted something like that! ;-)”
Kary made a prediction? What’s this world coming to?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By ray pepper @ 49:
For that to be paid well, you would need to be selling a slug of homes (e.g. $4,000 twice a year doesn’t go too far.)
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Ira Sacharoff @ 56:
Well, not the number, but I did agree with someone here that the likely effect of the tax credit ending was a rise in the median, because you were cutting out a number of lower end sales. So that’s sort of a prediction, although really it’s just an explanation of how the median works.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: pfft @ 47 – Haha…remember how you pumped GM just a few weeks ago….recovery? Really?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-01/gm-s-total-u-s-vehicle-sales-fell-24-9-last-month-more-than-estimated.html
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Pegasus @ 59 – I always hate articles like that which only give one other month for comparison, or worse, state that it’s an X% change without stating whether it’s from the prior month or the prior year. That’s one nice thing about what Tim does here. You get the data, if not in the text of what he writes, in the graphs.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: David Losh @ 54 –
“and we know that the photo on line doesn’t get a property sold for top dollar.”
and neither does the Agent. I assure you this David.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Pegasus @ 59:
one month of data means nothing. YOY car sales have done well for months.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By David Losh @ 54:
I’ve checked out every RE company in Puget Sound, and IMO Ray offers the best bang for the buck. As a prospective buyer, I want to get the house for bottom dollar. That’s where Ray’s group really shines. Since they are professional investors, they really understand the true worth of the homes and how to drive a hard bargain in your behalf.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By pfft @ 62:
Unfortunately, increased GM sales don’t say a lot about the U.S. economy. GM sells more cars in China these days than it does in the U.S. And as I understand it, that’s where all the jobs are. No wonder they can afford to buy more of our cars than we can.
Speaking of jobs, preliminary reports are that the U.S. lost another 10,000 private sector jobs in August and the official unemployment rate will notch upward come Friday. Having unemployment still heading up three years after the crash is not what I call a bullish signal.
In short, we are experiencing the aftermath of a debt-fueled financial crisis, and these types of downturns take forever and a day to crawl out of. Deleveraging debt and rebuilding capital is a slow and painful process.
House prices typically bottom after unemployment begins robust growth. Until we see robust job growth, it is way too early to call a bottom in the housing market. I think you are fooling yourself with your current bottom call, and the future will bear this out.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Jonness @ 63 – RE: ray pepper @ 61 –
Absolutely not true. It’s not what you know, it’s who you know.
I have thousands of examples of agents who have performed so well that properties sold for tens, and hundreds of thousands of dollars more than if the owner had used an MLS for Owners.
Ray, come on, let’s get real. 6% is nothing in the scheme of things. If some rube wants to pay less, gawd bless them, but in a world of a quarter, to half a, million dollars you should get professional advice. Professional means some one who gets paid for the service.
When you see a MLS by Owner sign you know you would be dealing with a moron, so who has that kind of time? There again if you have a buyer, and ask around, maybe you can find a deal. That’s the business.
If you get an offer from some one who is from the low end of the spectrum, you know you can jack them around. Who cares about them. They’ll be out of business in a couple of years, so who cares. Get as much out of them as you possibly can.
Real Estate, the Real Estate business, is a long term investment.
Nobody cares about your crumby little stinky deal. If you are just a cheap crumby little money grubbing one time, “I’m the Buyer, or I’m the seller” low life, why would any one do business with you? Because your so swell? because your house is so swell? or you got a loan, so look at you?
It’s a little bitty 6% commission. You either pay to play, or take it down the road with your “I got a rebate.”
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: David Losh @ 65 –
David, is that you in there?:
“If some rube wants to pay less”
“you would be dealing with a moron”
“some one who is from the low end of the spectrum”
“you can jack them around”
“cheap crumby little money grubbing”
Is this what you think of your buyers and sellers? If it was me verses Pfft, sure, but I’d have a bit more respect for the guy who brings either the product or the money to the table. ;-)
“your crumby little stinky deal”
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: David Losh @ 65 –
So much to say I just can’t….So I won’t……….. but let me just emphasize this…..Agents do not sell homes….They never have and never will. They are simply facilitators to assist a Buyer and Seller. The sooner they get this in their heads the sooner we can move on with this sham of a model of real estate we perform.
The MLS will crumble and so will the way we perform real estate. Its just a matter of time and I give it less then 8 more years…BTW every year we are getting closer..Many REO’s only pay 4.5% now to be split between agents. The banks already know the truth and soon it will all come out.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Jonness @ 63 –
Yes, Joness we price shop everyone and thats why we state “You will not find a better deal anywhere”….Everytime I think I find a better deal to list or buy there is always some catch….If you find one let me know.
I had not heard of that Secret Agent Brokerage until Ira mentioned it but that one seems to be far too expensive with their shopping list. Iggy’s House was a great deal for awhile ( and they beat us in pricing for sellers** FREE**) but they went down the crapper.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By ray pepper @ 67:
Most still pay 3% SOC, and from what I can see, the banks that only pay 1.5% to the listing office are getting what they pay for.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Scotsman @ 66 –
It’s a crumby little stinky deal, and I want to know why a person shopping commission deserves any respect.
On one hand people say they are shopping for the family home, and on the other hand are looking for the cheapest commission.
For most people the family home is the biggest financial investment they will make. In getting the best “deal” they want to save on the commission.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ray pepper @ 67 –
Yes, Ray it is the agent.
When you look at a findwell, redfin, MLS for Owners, it’s a small portion of buyers, and sellers. Most people want professional representation, but they can’t find it.
More people should be shopping for an agent that knows what they are doing than shopping for a home.
People don’t look for an agent, they don’t interview, they don’t look at the agent as some one who has learned a skill. They just look at the paper work.
Being a Real Estate agent is hard work. It takes years to learn the craft. You have to know your product, locations, the job centers, economic viability, and future value. That’s how you build a clientele.
It’s like a gardener, house painter, cleaner, mechanic, or nurse. Do you really need the list Ray?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Scotsman @ 66 –
I think the proper term for some one shopping the commish is a cheese ball. When some one is shopping the commission how seriously would any one take them?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I can see why someone would expect a lower commission where they have already found the property. We’ve discussed that before, and again I’ll bring up the very low fee=practice of law issue and suggest an agent/attorney like Craig Blackmon (Wa Law) would be the solution.
I think David does bring up one good point. When you’re dealing with a seller who lists through a limited service broker that doesn’t deal with the negotiations, you create a lot of uncertainty for buyers and buyers agents. It’s going to be somewhat likely that the seller doesn’t have a clue what they are doing and just getting to mutual acceptance might be tough for technical reasons (and yes that can happen too with really bad agents). And problems can arise after mutual acceptance.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 73 –
Kary why would you not suggest Red Fin, 500 Realty, or Findwell for someone who has found their home? Do you really think he can service his clients with his partner better then a real estate brokerage? Craig Blackmon has up front fees and upon last check has no Agents to service the customer.
Their laundry list of fees is simply ridiculous. http://blackmonholmes.com/fees/
I think when he gets his model straightened out, and hires more staff, he maybe a viable option. But his model does not allow for showings of multiple homes. Sometimes the one you engage in does NOT end up being the one you buy. Then look what happens to you under his model.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ray pepper @ 74 – Because none of the other ones you mention deal with the practice of law issue. IMHO, if you are just dealing with one property and asking the agent to write up an offer for a low price, that’s the practice of law. I think you were part of that discussion on Trulia where someone wanted an agent to make on offer on a Magnolia property for $5,000. That’s the type of thing I’m discussing.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
One question I’m very curious about is how have home values held up close in vs further out? I would speculate a Snoqualmie Ridge or Covington house has faired much worse than a Wallingford house. But of course I don’t have any data to support that
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 75 –
My contention to his model is what happens if it results in a sale fail. You and I both know sometimes inspections go bad, financing, cold feet, who knows… Look at the fees and charges you must pay UP FRONT. He can no doubt write up a deal and service his client on that specific deal but look at what happens if it becomes a SALE FAIL.
Not me …No money up front…Never!
I mean come on now…
This fee includes our legal fees of $1495 flat fee plus $2500 payable to our affiliated real estate brokerage, WaLaw Realty. ***$500 is due up front, **** and the balance is due at closing or six months later (whichever occurs first). By using WaLaw Realty as your real estate agent, you are able to get the services of a real estate agent, such as house tours. In addition, through WaLaw we refund the buyer’s agent’s commission back to you at closing (typically 3% of the purchase price). See WaLawRealty.com for more information.
BUYERS making an offer on new construction additional ****$250****
New construction includes additional documentation (such as a Builder’s Addendum) that requires additional attorney time. Moreover, these contracts are typically slanted heavily in favor of the seller. Accordingly, we usually invest additional time in negotiating the final contract so that it is fair to the buyer. This additional charge is incurred for each offer (including all related counteroffers) on new construction.
BUYERS of property valued at or above $1 million add’l $2000 per million
These transactions represent a significant increase in our own potential professional liability.
BUYERS purchasing a SHORT SALE or REO additional $250
Increasingly popular these days are “short sales” and “REO” properties. For buyers, these types of homes present great opportunities to get a bargain. For sellers, short sales may be the only way to get out from underneath an upside down mortgage. These transactions require considerably more work so we charge an additional fee to clients making an offer on a short sale or REO property.
NOPE……Not me!!!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Colin @ 38 – I like the offset data — at least until we see what happens in Seattle post tax credit when things might go down.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: David Losh @ 70 – Did you ever consider that saving $20,000 on commission means $20,000 available for the “rube” to buy a new roof for his home? Maybe consider that he earned that $20,000 the old fashioned way? You really are not doing you or your profession any favors by making statements like this. Maybe you don’t care. I’m just amazed that you talk like this in a public forum, even if you indeed hold this sort of disdain for your potential clients.
And you wonder why the comparison to used car salesemen comes up so often….
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: David Losh @ 71 –
I’ve met some superstar real estate agents. Especially when it comes to being the listing agent. They have a network of people, they know the best stagers, the best photographers, they know how to market ,and how to obtain the highest possible price for a property. I’ve also met some barely literate, total moron real estate agents who charge the same commission as the superstars. So merely paying the 3% is no assurance that you’ll get good service or competence.
I’ve also met some hard working discount real estate brokers, so you can’t really assume that by going discount you are going to screw yourself.
But I do have to say that self interest pays a huge part in this argument.
Ray is a discount real estate broker and can’t understand why anybody would pay 3%.
David is a former Windermere agent and can’t understand why anybody would use a discount broker.
Kary is a former attorney and recommends the idea of using an attorney for real estate transactions.
The fact of the matter is that there are some full service three percenters who are a huge ripoff, who can barely spell their own names.
There are also some sellers who are better off having real representation and not doing the work themselves.
At the same time, there are a lot of bright folks out there who can sell a house on their own as well as anybody, and have the savvy and skills to pull it off successfully. These people would be better off selling the house via a MLS4owners than using one of the representatives of Retardo Realty.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: wreckingbull @ 78 – I don’t believe Losh is currently an agent.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Ira Sacharoff @ 79:
Just to correct a few things, I am an attorney, but I no longer practice. And I’m recommending an attorney just for that one particular situation (although I wouldn’t recommend against an attorney, or an inspector, etc., ever). Finally, that one particular situation is not the type of situation I would be willing to deal in. I think you need a practicing real estate attorney for that type of situation (e.g making an offer on a $2M house that you’ve already selected).
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: wreckingbull @ 79 –
Because focusing on that little bitty piece of chump change means nothing in the game of Real Estate.
I’ve had brain ferts before, looked at a property wide eyed with wonder, until somebody talks me back to the ground. Maybe good, maybe not, but getting advice is what I do. I’ve only been involved in a few hundred Real Estate transactions personally so I am pretty green.
I look for the advice of people I trust. There are only about a dozen or so Real Estate agents I consult with, that’s how many that I can think of who know the craft. So how does some idiot, moron, off the street, with a few hundred hours of internet surfing make a rational decision about a quarter to half million dollar investment?
Tell me about how you are just looking for the family home. Tell me how you are throwing the biggest, and best, chance you have, of adding to your families wealth to some frigging pictures on the internet. Lecture me again about Case Schiller.
I’m sorry, but I want advice, and yes I sent my license back to Olympia. I’ll re-up the license in a few weeks when the Real Estate market gets more volatile, but please, spare me your used car sales BS. This is Real Estate. It’s tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of dollars you can either win or lose. Your choice.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
This is Real Estate. It’s tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of dollars you can either win or lose. Your choice.
Very true.. and you can also LOSE BIG when consulting “YOUR dozen or so Real Estate agents you consult with.”
The fact is this. The Agent SOLD nothing and in the end its the Buyers due diligence to make the right decision. Technology continues to bring so much more power & knowledge to the consumer while eliminating ALOT of work for the Agent. The more assistance a Buyer or Seller gives their agent the more they should be compensated and the less the Agent should receive. Its just that simple.
Paying an Agent to FIND you a Home is absurd and paying someone 3% to sell it is equally if not more idiotic with the technolgy that exists today. But, don’t take my word for it. Just look at the last 5 years. Change is coming far quicker then even I had planned.
“People only remain stupid for so long”
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By David Losh @ 65:
The beauty of the bursting of this housing bubble is all the pompous, nose in the air, 6% snobs are going to come crashing down to earth with the rest of us mere mortals who actually have to work for a living.
It’s $30,000.00 for about a week of your time. You might not think that’s a big deal, but I’m the guy paying for it.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ray pepper @ 84 –
That’s right people only remain stupid for so long. look at the past five years and how much equity, and wealth has been lost by bad decisions.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Jonness @ 85 –
I work for a living. I’m the guy you call, or your agent has you call, when your piece of poop isn’t worth any more than the dirt it sits on. $60K is nothing in the world of Real Estate. Once you own the home you own the problems as well as the virtues.
$60K? How about that sewer line, bad design, broken foundation, settling foundation, faulty wiring, pier and post, location in proximity to a crack house, a former crack house, leaky roof, under priced, over priced, bad flashing, Geldwyn (sp?) windows, pre 1987 Milgaurds, uneven doors, bad kitchen, good bathroom with insufficient ventilation, or unsealed grout. I’ve got a list.
Now I’ve only been involved in a few thousand Real Estate transactions where we, my crews, and I, have worked on the properties, but I’ve only done that for forty years, so I’m kind of new at that, and yes, I hire Real Estate agents for the purchase, and sale of properties.
People will only be stupid for so long, before they get the help they need.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ray pepper @ 84 –
Which reminds me Ray, you said I can’t buy a house in Las Vegas for $97K, with a pool. I said, OK, $125K, 3 beds, 2bths, and a pool. You said no way, but that doesn’t make sense. I’ve always been able to that house at that price, so what changed in the past 7 years? They just built a bunch more houses.
You bought in Carson City for $60K so Las Vegas would be twice the price.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: David Losh @ 88 –
Not me Dave. I don’t remember ever saying that. I have no doubt you can buy a home in Vegas (with a pool) for 60k. Probably even 40k if you to attend some auctions.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By ray pepper @ 84:
I’m not sure which agent (listing or selling) you’re talking about, but I would agree the selling agent shouldn’t sell anything.
I think you’re very naive if you think a typical buyer is qualified to do due diligence. You really think the typical buyer is going to reinvent the wheel on each transaction and do a good job of that?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
In an exchange with Craig at WaLaw he quoted some NWMLS language that uses the term sales person.
I’ve said it a million times that Real Estate is not a commission sales position. Real Estate is a business, and if your business model is based on Real Estate sales, you’re out of business. The Real Estate business is residential, commercial, property management, business opportunity, sales, leasing, and repair.
In times like now, property management can float the boat of a Real Estate company. If some one were smart they would get involved with long term leasing of commercial property for cash flow. You could even buy store fronts if you had a business plan for diversifying the spaces.
Real Estate is a business, complete with a business plan, and that’s the only way to view the purchase of Real Estate. Check the touchy feely at the door.
BTW, are your feelings hurt because the bad old man thinks you’re a moron?
When you go in with a plan, when you present a cohesive plan, then you should seek advice. Filling out the boiler plate forms used in the State of Washington doesn’t require any advice.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ray pepper @ 89 –
You must mean Henderson, but I’m glad you are coming around.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By David Losh @ 91:
That’s from prior Washington license law, where we had brokers and salespersons. In fact, the title of RCW 18.86. is still “Real Estate Brokers and Salespersons.” They didn’t amend that when they made everyone brokers.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: David Losh @ 87 – A thorough home inspection cost about $400 complete with FLIR meter to check for hidden moisture in the ceilings, walls and floors.
BTW, the last two homes I sold were via 6% agents. Neither agent was worth the clothes they were wearing.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Jonness @ 94 –
I agree, but respectfully disagree about the inspection. In the 1970s I had Aardvark Home Inspections, revived in the 1980s, and almost took over Archer Inspections in the 1990s. An inspection tells you nothing you can’t already see.
The inspection means nothing. The value of the property is all that matters, and that takes experience.
I also use 6% agents to sell my properties, because I want the best price. You think you can do better, or a few pictures on the internet ought to do it, but it takes a player to get paid.
I think the commissions will be going up, very soon, as prices decline, and the need, the true need, for professional advice will be more apparent.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 93 –
You’re right, I forgot, it says sales people.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By David Losh @ 86:
And how many of those bad decisions were encouraged by agents? There are good agents, but too many of them will endorse any deal that puts a dollar in their pocket.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By David Losh @ 95:
I don’t believe that’s true. In the past, agents got 6% because they had a monopoly on the MLS and door locks. That model is outdated. Agents don’t provide inspections, they don’t provide guaranteed honest advice, they don’t provide warranties, etc. Why on earth should I pay an agent $40,000.00 to sell my home? You claim that’s not very much money; yet, it represents a year of net salary for the average WA family.
Like it or not, markets are moved by price. If it weren’t the case, Home Depot and Walmart would not be with us today. Based on that alone, even if it were true that you need a 6% seller, less and less people would choose them.
IMO, you personally use 6% agents because you’ve found a few people you’ve done business with over the last 30 years you’ve learned to trust, respect, and rely on, and you’ve developed a business model that allows for this. A “pathetic one-time worthless cheapskate home consumer” like me is not in a position of having 30-years of experience and knowing who to pick. However, during my limited amount of experience, I’ve developed a different perspective of 6% agents than you have.
I have many notables but will provide just one. I went to several open houses. At each one, I signed a guest book. After that, massive spam started hitting my mailbox. Now I have to provide a fake name, address, and phone number at every open house I attend. The last one, the agent offered no commission refund if I used her to purchase the home (they never do unless hard-balled). I didn’t like the floor plan and didn’t buy the home, but if I had, why on earth would I not have called 500 Realty and gotten a $15,000.00 refund? Can you legitimately tell me what guarantees or extra services I would have gotten, above what 500 Realty offers, had I used this open house agent to purchase the house?
75% of the need for an agent to charge 3% buyer’s commission is due to having to drum up interested buyers. To do this, most agents have to show countless homes to uninterested buyers. 500 Realty will not show a home unless the buyer is recently pre-approved. Buyers will not get pre-approved unless they are truly interested in buying a home. It’s no guarantee the buyer will buy, but it sure beats spending 1000′s of hours at open houses fishing through “hey honey, let’s look at this house we can’t really afford to buy and waste the agent’s time.”
In short, after filtering through all the 6% overpriced junk, I finally found a really good agent, and I will use him exclusively in the future. The 75% refunded commission is icing on the cake. YMMV.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Jonness @ 98 -
You made a point that I never considered, because Real Estate is a very small community. I can talk with who ever I want, ask questions, and get some level of respect for who I am, and my place, no matter how small, in the Real Estate community.
The comparison I like is between Home Depot, and Dunn Lumber. When I was a kid I hated going to Dunn Lumber because they always talked to me like I was the idiot. They would ask me technical questions about something or other with that superiority. At Home Depot any one can walk in, and get answers, because it’s just assumed you are an idiot.
There again, in terms of getting a house sold, there are tricks to the trade. I have, right now, a perfect example of two agents, same company, partners in business, and one got a place sold for more than I ever would have thought within a week of going on the market. The other had us also do work to the property, a really hot deal, IMHO, and the property just sat there without an offer for a month. Collaborating agents, same work force, different results.
The difference to me was the way the work was done, and the collaboration each had with me. The one that sold quickly did the things that made sense, got them done quickly, and cleaned the place up to look cohesive. The other was just a hot mess of stainless steel, and granite over bad cabinets, some hidden defects, and a long drawn out process of trying to screw my workers.
The first guy is a consummate professional who knows his product and craft, the second is a nickle, and dime hustler. How would you know the difference? They both work for the same company, they look similar, but one brings value, and the other is a liability.
It’s true that some of the most most prolific Real Estate agents are skeezers, with no moral compass. It is really hard to tell.
Rate this comment:
0 
0