Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

13 responses to “Nov. Reporting Roundup: Pretend Pending Party Part 2”

  1. softwarengineer

    To Quote the Tacoma News Tribune Article Above

    “Everyone is wondering how long interest rates are going to remain low…”

    Not for long, at the current rates outlook. Looks like current [today's] federal treasuries are needing higher interest rates to dump. Article in part:

    “…After the auction, the broader bond market extended its losses, pushing yields in the opposite direction. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y (UST10Y 3.13, +0.20, +6.76%) rose 19 basis points to 3.12%, the highest since at least July.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ussells-3-year-notes-bond-market-extends-losses-2010-12-07?siteid=bnbh

    The stock market nose-dived today after the horrifying 10 yr bond news pushing interest rates higher. The good news, Obama proposes shaving 2% off our Social Security deduction for 2011 [that's a net pay increase, like a 2.6% gross pay increase, before bracket creep]….the news didn’t say if this also means a reduction in SS benefits though.

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  2. wreckingbull

    Unbelievable. Lenny is still beating his one-trick pony of buying power and interest rates. Does he really think that reduced purchasing power has no effect on home prices, or does he just conveniently ignore this in his quest to sell more homes?

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  3. Scotsman

    I get the sense that, more and more, they all come to Seattle Bubble for the real analysis.

    In the Seattle Times piece Peter Hickey is quoted at the end as saying sales have picked up because “people are tired of being scared.” So now they’re going to try being stupid instead? I grew up with Peter and remember when he bought his first very used Lexus and went into the business. He is a realtor’s realtor, the penultimate champion of “now is a great time to buy. . houses always go up!”

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  4. mukoh

    By softwarengineer @ 1:

    To Quote the Tacoma News Tribune Article Above

    “Everyone is wondering how long interest rates are going to remain low…”

    Not for long, at the current rates outlook. Looks like current [today’s] federal treasuries are needing higher interest rates to dump. Article in part:

    “…After the auction, the broader bond market extended its losses, pushing yields in the opposite direction. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y (UST10Y 3.13, +0.20, +6.76%) rose 19 basis points to 3.12%, the highest since at least July.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ussells-3-year-notes-bond-market-extends-losses-2010-12-07?siteid=bnbh

    The stock market nose-dived today after the horrifying 10 yr bond news pushing interest rates higher. The good news, Obama proposes shaving 2% off our Social Security deduction for 2011 [that’s a net pay increase, like a 2.6% gross pay increase, before bracket creep]….the news didn’t say if this also means a reduction in SS benefits though.

    SWE -3.03 a whole 0.03% decline is a nose dive? Is the glass half emty or half full?

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  5. brainiac

    RE: Scotsman @ 3

    Not trying to be a word Nazi here, but actually penultimate means “next to last”. I only know this from a story from my former CFO about how he used it to describe his bosses performance (which was how he came to know the definition).

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  6. Ahau

    Tim–sorry for the OT comment here, but do you know what the deal is with the difference between the NWMLS’ numbers for November and Redfin’s?

    Redfin released their numbers for November this morning (or some time yesterday), and they’re showing a median SFR price in King County of $374K ($15K above NWMLS report), and they’re showing a MOM increase in both median price (+1.9%) and $/sqft (+5%).

    Any insight for us?

    Thanks!

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  7. LA Relo

    Until the gov’t stops meddling every now and then as prices continue to plummet, even YOY data becomes unreliable.

    The media must love it because they have even more discretion with which to mislead lead people.

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  8. Ahau

    RE: The Tim @ 7 – Actually, I *think* this might be some mix-shifting. Here’s my case: NWMLS reports sales in two categories: SFR and condo. Redfin reports in three: SFR, Townhome, and Condo (though townhomes don’t show on their charts). In NWMLS reports, I think some townhomes are getting lumped in with SFR, and others are lumped with condos.

    In October, SFR’s made up 82.4% of the MLS total reported sales. In November, they made up 82.04%.

    However, in October Redfin’s SFR category made up 76.3% of the total, and in November, they made up only 73.6%. Redfin shows a mix shift towards condos/townhomes, but MLS does not; I think perhaps more townhomes were reported as SFR in November (by the MLS) than in October. This shift would lower the median sale price.

    FWIW, I also think this townhome issue is playing a part in the overall disparity between the SFR sales reported by NWMLS and those reported by Redfin. Over the last seven months aggregated, NWMLS has reported more SFR sales than Redfin (about 65 more), but Redfin’s total number of sales (SFR+Townhome+condo) eclipses NWMLS by more than 800. Redfin continues to update it’s information, and will increase it’s reporting for any given month, the month after it initially publishes it’s numbers (for example, in early October they reported 1109 SFR sales for September, but in November they revised it up to 1249, whereas NWMLS reported 1158 in early October and published no revisions that I’ve seen).

    I…hope I’m still making sense. I’ve been staring at spreadsheets for too long.

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  9. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Ahau @ 9RE: The Tim @ 7 – I think The Tim is correct. It’s the late reported sales dragging things down. I didn’t manage to find settings that duplicated the NWMLS volume, but a quick search indicated a drop in median of roughly 10k due to late reported.

    Estimate from NWMLS sources but not compiled or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

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  10. Macro Investor

    The altos median price chart on Tim’s home page is all anybody needs to know. It’s fallen off a cliff the last 5 months. Just in the last 3 days I noticed the median fell another $10,000. And that is for Seattle, the strongest sub market we have.

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  11. Scotsman

    RE: brainiac @ 5

    Thank you. It won’t happen again! ;-)

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  12. Ahau

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10 – Thanks, Kary and Tim. I graphed Redfin’s median with NWMLS’ median, and I see that Redfin dropped a lot more in October than NWMLS, and then ticked up in November while NWMLS tanked, so low-priced late reports from October would explain this.

    I still see issues with the mix shifting, but since I don’t have access to the MLS, nor an excess of spare time, I’m not going to dig deeper into the data to see where it’s coming from and what it’s affect is.

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