Redfin: Winter Already Here in Seattle Real Estate

Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.

A couple days ago Redfin released their November market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

While median prices might be holding steady the time it takes to close has been lengthening. “About half of the buyers I’ve been working with have had their loans extended, and this is pushing out the buyers’ closing date,” said Coventry Merwin, a Redfin coordinator. “There doesn’t seem to be a pattern with respect to what type of bank it is, whether it’s a local or out of state lender, or the type of buyer. It seems to be a result of the lending climate in general. In November three of the six deals I worked on closed later than their contractual closing date. For December two out of the four of the deals will be closing late through no fault of the buyer. We find ourselves coaching buyers, these days, to expect the unexpected once the file goes to underwriting.”

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in November is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot for single-family homes, condos, or townhouses. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the geographic view to your liking.

Same story we’ve seen since the tax credit expired. Sales down year-over-year almost everywhere, with a handful of exceptions scattered here and there. The biggest winner in King County this month was Shoreline (98177), which saw sales shoot up 70% from 10 in November 2009 to 17 in November 2010. King County’s biggest decline was in (98055), where sales fell 50% from 14 in September to just 7 in October. Once again, very few neighborhoods saw year-over-year sales gains.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

  • King: 98115 — 40 sales.
  • Snohomish: 98012 — 57 sales.
  • Pierce: 98387 — 66 sales.
  • Thurston: 98501 — 38 sales.
  • Kitsap: 98367 — 23 sales.

As is common for this time of year, inventory declined month-to-month in almost every neighborhood. Year-to-year was a little more mixed, with many neighborhoods showing gains, but many others actually down from 2009.

The median price was down in most neighborhoods from a year ago, while the median price per square foot fell in even more neighborhoods.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

5 comments:

  1. 1
    hrpuffnstuff says:

    First one to comment! November data looks ho hum. What’s interesting to me now is what will the suring interest rates do to demand?

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  2. 2
    uwp says:

    Echoing what puffnstuff said.
    While I had no delusions that RE was going to screech off to V shaped recovery next spring, the action in the 10yr the last 2 months has been frightening for anyone thinking about interest rates.

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  3. 3
    JW says:

    that’s the million dollar question…how much impact will rising interest rates have, how high will they rise and how fast.

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  4. 4
    query_squidier says:

    When the 30 yr fixed mortgage rate starts to rise will be the time I sincerely start looking to buy my first house. I’ve watied this long and have a sizable down payment now (which, luckily, continues to grow) but I’m not going to go “all in” until it makes sense.

    For the interest rate trends, a simple Google yielded:
    http://mortgage-x.com/trends.htm

    I really hope that house we all wagered on closes on the Ides of March like I predicted, lol.

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  5. 5
    BillE says:

    By query_squidier @ 4:

    When the 30 yr fixed mortgage rate starts to rise will be the time I sincerely start looking to buy my first house. I’ve watied this long and have a sizable down payment now (which, luckily, continues to grow) but I’m not going to go “all in” until it makes sense.

    Yes. Imagine the confusion when I told an agent I wouldn’t mind rates going higher. With prices already sliding downward, higher rates could help make my down payment closer to a full payment.

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