By The Tim on December 24, 2010
Here is your open thread for the weekend beginning Friday December 24th, 2010. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.
Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!
Posted in Open Thread | Tagged open_thread
Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.
Merry Christmas to all!
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http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2007-Hanford-Lane_North-Port_FL_34288_M67947-24097
Found that on another site. Is that a deal or what? Too bad it is not going to happen here in Seattle.
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RE: John @ 2 –
There are many reasons why it won’t happen in Seattle, and it does and will continue to happen in FL. Main two: quality of life and job market. And believe me, as bad as you may think the job market is in the Puget Sound region, it does not even come close to FL.
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Is it possible to see the terms of someone’s mortgage, i.e. how much cash they put down? I am wondering because I recently put in an full-price offer on a REO property but the bank decided to proceed with a different buyer. Assuming the other buyer closes, I know I can look at the county records to see how much the house sold for. I’m wondering if I could also see how much cash the buyer put down or if they paid 100% cash for the house?
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RE: Cheap South @ 3 –
I wish I wanted to live in FL. That’s as cheap as living in Mexico. Not knowing the area, but it must be a desolate mess with a huge over supply of houses.
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By Confused Renter @ 4:
I don’t think all counties are the same, but try a document search on the county auditor’s website. The county assessor’s site will tell you what they paid, but the auditor’s site may show you what loans were taken out. I know in Snohomish County you can use the auditor’s site to view mortgage documents and more.
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RE: BillE @ 6 – Exactly. I think every county lets you see the sales price. Most counties with Internet sites for the recorder also let you see the deeds of trust that are recorded. King County is the exception–they hide deeds of trust because for a time many had the SSN of the borrower on them. Just another example of banks being incredibly stupid.
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Hey Tim,
Any chance you could start a topic that can educate buyers on how to go about purchasing a distressed property? It goes very well as a follow up to the thread on below market deals. What I am interested in is how should one approach auctions, trustee sales, short sales and REOs. Also what is the difference in all these terms?
Thanks!
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RE: Andtech @ 8 – You might want to look at this first! ;-)
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2013761790_foreclosure25.html
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The Tim is quoted extensively in today’s Seattle Times: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2013742893_realestate26.html
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By Macro Investor @ 5:
Yes to your first sentence. Not quite, to your second. And as the recent census shows, absolutely wrong on your last one. There is little doubt FL will surpass NY as the state with the third largest population in the country in the next 36 months (first wave of baby boomers are 64 now; leaving NY for FL). But when you only have the Everglades, and Lake Okeechobee to stop sprawl, there is absolutely no limit to the overbuilding. And they keep on building as I type this, and half of the state is foreclosed. Polk County (located in central FL between Tampa and Orlando), is rural. My neighbor works for a builder in the area, and is very busy. She told me last week, one can get one heck of a house and a nice size lot for about $140K with a USDA approved loan (agricultural base loan with restrictions) for under 2%. Granted, part of the restrictions is that you probably need to keep cattle on the property, etc.
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I admit defeat. It’s the end of 2010 and we are not at “20 cents on the dollar.”
I hang my head in shame.
http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/2010/12/eating-fair-traded-shade-grown-free.html
Bring the rotton tomatoes, eggs, and pink pony detritus and fling away.
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RE: Eleua @ 12 – Quitter! You still have five days left. ;-)
Seriously, I have a bit of a problem with your explanation. That the Fed would act should have been expected. That it would work (so far), that was the question. Your 20% could have worked out if the Fed hadn’t succeeded (so far).
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KLK,
The FED’s actions have been criminal in nature (meaning acting outside the scope of the FEDERAL RESERVE ACT). The banks are presently insolvent, but due to outright fraud, they are allowed to keep their assets on their books at whatever value they deem prudent, rather than what the market bears, or what industry insiders price each others’ debt.
When the FED was loaning directly to the member banks under the various alphabet soup programs of 2007-9, the FED was taking collateral from the banks, particularly BOA, on average of 20c on the dollar, while at the same time, the banks were carrying those same assets at full face value.
What is a shareholder to think? I’ll tell you what they should think. They should be thinking the same thing WAMU shareholders SHOULD HAVE BEEN THINKING when Killinger was telling them that capitalized interest was money good for WAMU in Jan 07 and subsequent. WaMu was saying they had money they knew they didn’t, just as the banks today are doing.
The fact that nobody has gone to the clink over this is truly maddening. Killinger should be sued into the Dark Ages, along with Mozillo, and then sent to the lockup for the financial damage they have caused us. They can be the first two in the conga line into Federal court and ultimately Federal-pound-me-in-the-a**-prison.
So, yes. I didn’t take into account wholesale countenance of fraud and criminality, which will ultimately lead to an even more spectacular crash than if we had just cowboyed up in the first place. We should have realized that treating owner-occ homes as viable investment vehicles is unfathomably stupid on the face of it.
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