Redfin: Home Sales Thaw a Bit, Prices Still Mostly Falling

Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.

Now that it’s almost February, we should probably make some time to check out Redfin’s December market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

With buyers hitting the streets, and inventory scarce it stands to reason that sellers who list their homes for sale now, instead of waiting until spring, have the advantage of less competition. “I have quite a few buyers just waiting for an increase in inventory, which seems stale at the moment,” said Robin McCue, a Seattle Redfin agent, “Sellers should consider listing earlier than later in the season, as there are a lot of buyers just waiting for good homes.”

I guess it depends on what your definition of “a lot of buyers” is. There are definitely buyers waiting for good inventory (which has been quite stale lately), but I don’t know that I’d say there are a lot of buyers just yet.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here. New in this month’s spreadsheet: Pending sales and 13-month trend tables! Check it out, we’re pretty proud of these sweet new features.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in December is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot for single-family homes, condos, or townhouses. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the geographic view to your liking.

Redfin’s data shows a bump in sales month-to-month, but not as big as what the NWMLS claimed. Year-over-year, the biggest winner in King County this month was E. Auburn (98002), which saw sales shoot up 133% from 6 in December 2009 to 14 in December 2010. King County’s biggest decline was in Lake City / Northgate (98125), where sales fell 42% from 26 a year ago to 15 this year. 39 zip codes had decreasing sales volumes YOY, 3 were flat, and 24 saw an increase. Month-to-month, 14 zip codes fell, 2 were flat, and 46 increased.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in December in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

  • King: 98033 — 42 sales.
  • Snohomish: 98012 — 47 sales.
  • Pierce: 98387 — 55 sales.
  • Thurston: 98513 — 38 sales.
  • Kitsap: 98366 — 34 sales.

Inventory declined month-to-month in most neighborhoods. Year-to-year, about a third of neighborhoods gained inventory, while two thirds were down from 2009.

The median price fell from a year ago in 41 King County zip codes, and rose in 25. The median price per square foot was down in 45 zip codes, flat in one, and up in 20.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

13 comments:

  1. 1
    ray pepper says:

    Buyers? Are there really any qualified out there? Personally, I think we can give 100% of our commission back, stand on the street corners naked, and I don’t think we will see an uptick in volume.

    What I do see is EVERYONE wants to buy but they are stuck with their home dangling around their necks. However, due to this recent bull-run in the markets I see more liquidity now at The Trustee Sales and people “attempting” to buy at 60% off of highs. These homes are quickly rehabbed and moved to the MLS ( lower then standing inventory is priced) causing more stress on conventional homeowners trying to unload.

    Good God! We have seen nothing yet!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2

    Ray said ” Buyers? Are there really any qualified out there? Personally, I think we can give 100% of our commission back, stand on the street corners naked, and I don’t think we will see an uptick in volume.”

    Standing on the street corner naked is only going to result in people running away from you and a call to the police :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3

    Seattle Home Sales Should Sky-rocket Now

    Wash St Boeing workers all got $5000 bonuses.

    http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/morning_call/2011/01/boeing-passing-out-5000-bonuses-to.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 2

    Don’t Worry

    No one will see you naked, they’re all in line filing for first time unemployment benefits:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/initial-jobless-claims-in-u-s-rose-51-000-last-week-to-454-000.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5
    BubbleBuyer says:

    Is it just me or are the Zip codes not appearing in the popup bubbles?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    The Tim says:

    RE: BubbleBuyer @ 5 – It’s not just you. There’s a bug in Tableau. I’m trying to get some help to see if it’s possible to work around it.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 2

    “Standing on the street corner naked is only going to result in people running away from you and a call to the police :)”

    I won’t ask how you know this- I’ll just encourage you to be more thoughtful in the future. Perhaps a different location?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8
    Hugh Dominic says:

    I am a buyer waiting for decent inventory. So, there’s at least one.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9
    Zipzippgc says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 8 – I have a brother who is in fifties and about to pull trigger in Skagit county, with 50% down. There is two. We are miserable in cheap condo and ready with 25% down, except we are stuck on the logistics of likely having to rent it, as there is no ‘tiny box’ demand………Three buyers. There are a bunch of savers on the sidelines; many are secretly saving at fairly aggressive percentages of gross income, 20%, 40%, it eventually has to be traded into something real, like real estate.

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  10. 10
    The Tim says:

    By BubbleBuyer @ 5:

    Is it just me or are the Zip codes not appearing in the popup bubbles?

    I believe I have found a workaround for the Tableau bug. Zip codes should now appear in the pop-up.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    sallybuttons says:

    RE: Zipzippgc @ 9 – Skagit is bananas.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    chico says:

    RE: sallybuttons @ 11

    I got your bannana right here!

    HeHeHe!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. 13
    Al says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 2 – Good way to depress local property values.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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