Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

16 responses to “Sound Housing Quarterly: Exclusive, Unique Insights”

  1. Scotsman

    Hmm- the “heat index” is looking a little chilly these days. Given the strength of the recovery, the fact that many feel housing has bottomed (several times for some), the power of Seattle’s economic diversity, record low interest rates and. . the fact that they’re not making any more land- I can only come to one conclusion: The Tim’s methodology is bogus. ;-)

    Fact check: Not even Kary has posted today, certainly because he’s too busy writing up deals.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Scotsman @ 1 – You need to check your facts again. On the one hand I’ve probably posted 10 things today. On the other I have spent part of the day drafting a document pertaining to a “deal.”

    http://feeds.feedburner.com/SeattleBubbleComments

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. Scotsman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 2

    “I have spent part of the day drafting a document pertaining to a “deal.”

    Oooh- Earnest money refund? You sound tense- maybe go for a hike? ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Scotsman @ 3 – LOL. There are actually some situations where I’d like to see that result! And no, it’s not because I’ve ever had a client lose an earnest money. Knock wood.

    You’re right though on the tense part. I think it’s from my walk yesterday. I’ve been stretching today.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. Scotsman

    Here’s something to chew on- according to the latest numbers almost 11% of homes in the U.S. are empty. Rent or buy, that’s a lot of inventory hanging out there. Tell me about the recovery and rebounding home prices again. . .

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/41355854

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. Real World Express

    Choo…choo….Real World Express comin’ through!

    Jan 04, 2007 Sold (Public Records) $316,250 10.8%/yr Public Records
    Jan 21, 2011 Price Changed $134,900 – NWMLS #133511

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5412-31st-Ave-SW-98126/home/159178

    Smell the Clover(tm) brewed coffee, house-heads?

    Seattle is a dank, moldy, cloudy, lifeless town with prices the size of the most beautiful cities in the country such as San Diego and LA, that have golden sunshine all year long.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. Jonness

    By Scotsman @ 5:

    Tell me about the recovery and rebounding home prices again. . .

    Gladly. According to Zillow, Seattle prices will stabilize well after the rest of the country, largely due to being late to the party coupled with increasing foreclosures.

    http://www.nwcn.com/news/business/ZIllowcom-predicts-another-tough-year-in-Puget-Sound-housing-market-114946969.html

    FIFO

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFO

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. redmondjp

    RE: Scotsman @ 5 – Not only that, Scotsman, but think of how many less houses we would actually need if we didn’t have such an epidemic of divorce in this country. As economic times become tougher, maybe we’ll see the divorce rate go down, who knows?

    Regarding empty houses, about ten years ago I used to go out to the ritzy neighborhoods in the foothills east of Redmond and just looky-loo (in some places, it seems that it was a requirement to have a grand piano visible through the front window). It always amazed me how many completely dark and lifeless houses that I saw on a typical evening, making me wonder if I was seeing a second house, the owner was away on business travel, or was still at work so they could afford said house.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. ChrisM

    The Tim, Can you discuss the methodology behind the affodability index? Is this the data you’re using (FY 2010 Median Family Income Documentation System)
    http://www.huduser.org/portal/datasets/il/il2010/2010MedCalc.odn

    It has median family income by county thusly:

    King & Snohomish $64,353
    Pierce $52,098
    Kitsap $53,877

    Clark & Skamania $55,598
    Cowlitz $46,529

    Thanks!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: redmondjp @ 8 – If you look at a building of one bedroom condos, you’ll often see most of them dark, even though the building is fully occupied. People go out. That’s why there are always cars on the freeway.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. Kary L. Krismer

    By Real World Express @ 6:

    Choo…choo….Real World Express comin’ through!

    Jan 04, 2007 Sold (Public Records) $316,250 10.8%/yr Public Records
    Jan 21, 2011 Price Changed $134,900 – NWMLS #133511

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5412-31st-Ave-SW-98126/home/159178

    The board across the front window and the term “fixer” didn’t lead you to conclude that their might be a slight difference in condition between then and now?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. Real World Express

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11

    Sure, I’m willing to believe that in 4 years, the condition of the house deteriorated so much that the price had to drop by 2/3rds….because, as you agents say, “location, location, location”….

    Hey…wait a minute!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. Matt the Engineer

    I’d also like to hear about methodology for “affordability”. Does that take into account the cost of a commute? That flips most “affordability” indexes on their head. Over a 30 year mortgage a commute from the exurbs can cost over $500k. Working locally can save some money, but most people in the suburbs/exurbs can’t work locally, plus wages are often much lower.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. Kary L. Krismer

    By Real World Express @ 12:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11

    Sure, I’m willing to believe that in 4 years, the condition of the house deteriorated so much that the price had to drop by 2/3rds….because, as you agents say, “location, location, location”….

    Hey…wait a minute!

    Actually it very well could, even without the decline in the market that has occurred.

    Why do you want to pop in here and deceive people with meaningless examples?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. Scotsman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 14

    “Why do you want to pop in here and deceive people with meaningless examples?”

    Oh come on, Kary, look at it. That was never much of a house to begin with, but it is a perfect example of what the bubble mania did to prices. Have you ever heard the term “$500k Ballard chocolate box?” I though so. Once in a while you should pull off your realtor hat and put on your thinking cap so you can get real at least for a moment or two. No one is fooled an longer.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Scotsman @ 15 – I would agree there are other factors that affect pricing other than condition. But when you want to give an example of a decline in the market, you shouldn’t give an example that has an obvious difference of condition.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

Leave a Reply

Do you want a nifty avatar picture next to your name, instead of a photograph of Tim's dog? Just sign up with Gravatar, and make sure to use the same email address in the form below. It's that easy!

Please read the rules before posting a comment.

You have 5 comments remaining on this post.

Archives

Find us on Google+