Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

422 responses to “Health Care Open Thread II”

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  1. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 400:

    RE: pfft @ 399 – The economy is reducing health care spending. Obamacare does nothing to reduce spending–it only reduces government spending on health care.

    link please. Obamacare has just about every cost reducing measure that is out there included in it.

    “Obamacare does nothing to reduce spending–it only reduces government spending on health care.”

    shocking ignorance. the government is a huge player in the healthcare market. if it pushes down costs that reverberates in a good way throughout the economy.

    it’s odd you would say that since your position has always been that government spending in the form of obamacare is going to wreck the healthcare system through higher costs…

    perhaps you really don’t know what you believe or you will just say anything if it makes Obamacare look bad?

    Also:

    GOPers Oughta Love Obamacare: It Likely Encourages Entrepreneurship
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/obamacare-entrepreneurship

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  2. pfft

    Crist: Rick Scott To Blame For Deaths Through Refusal To Expand Medicaid
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/charlie-crist-rick-scott-expand-medicaid-deaths-florida

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  3. pfft

    I’ll spoil the article for you. routine.

    Delaying Parts of Obamacare: ‘Blatantly Illegal’ or Routine Adjustment?
    http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/07/delaying-parts-of-obamacare-blatantly-illegal-or-routine-adjustment/277873/

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  4. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: pfft @ 403 -President Obama has trampled on the Constitution and Bill of Rights so much that this doesn’t really matter much in comparison. It’s like worrying about a wart on a corpse. The Constitution is being murdered, and no one cares.

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  5. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 404:

    RE: pfft @ 403 -President Obama has trampled on the Constitution and Bill of Rights so much that this doesn’t really matter much in comparison. It’s like worrying about a wart on a corpse. The Constitution is being murdered, and no one cares.

    totally false.

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  6. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: pfft @ 405 – We live in a country where over half the population doesn’t care about widespread illegal surveillance because it helps fight terrorism and Congress is overseeing it. The Fifth Amendment is dead.

    We live in a country where more people care about whether a NJ governor affected traffic than about the President of the United States having ordered the killing of an American citizen and is planning a repeat, because they are accused of being a terrorist. The right to a trial by jury and Due Process are dead.

    We live in a country where the population accepts without issue legislation enacted by politicians that makes it more likely incumbents stay in power, but get upset when the Supreme Court overrules their actions as a clear violation of the First Amendment. The First Amendment is dead.

    So yes, the Consitution is dead and the fact that Obama isn’t following the niceties of having laws enacted by Congress before changing Obamacare really isn’t that big of a deal. It is, however, further evidence that the Constitution is dead. The political ruling class has won, and the people don’t care.

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  7. pfft

    oh noz!

    Obamacare Enrollments Continue Piling Up In January, Now 3.3 Million
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/obamacare-enrollment-january

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  8. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: pfft @ 407 – Gullible much? Ignoring the fact that the number is only about 1% of the population (insignificant), the number means nothing because many of those people may have come from existing plans when they were FORCED to switch coverage. The numbers we need to find out are the total insured. Washington state just recently released that number for 2012, so we may be waiting a while.

    BTW, post 406 is the answer to the question you just asked in the weekly open thread–cases that prove the Constitution is dead.

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  9. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: pfft @ 407 – You really should try to find some better news sources.

    Many questions, however, remain unanswered. Officials still can’t say how many of those who signed up have actually paid their premiums, or how many of those who enrolled were previously covered by insurance and how many were uninsured.

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/02/12/276000210/after-january-surge-more-than-3-million-have-enrolled-in-obamacare?live=1&utm_content=socialflow&utm_campaign=nprfacebook&utm_source=npr&utm_medium=facebook

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  10. pfft

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 409according to the NYT the number is 20% who haven’t paid their premium. that’s progress though because so many have signed up that isn’t even an issue anymore. the conversation has moved on to more esoteric things. that shows progress. also that the opponents keep moving the goalposts when wrong.

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  11. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 8:

    RE: pfft @ 407 – Gullible much? Ignoring the fact that the number is only about 1% of the population (insignificant), the number means nothing because many of those people may have come from existing plans when they were FORCED to switch coverage. The numbers we need to find out are the total insured. Washington state just recently released that number for 2012, so we may be waiting a while.

    BTW, post 406 is the answer to the question you just asked in the weekly open thread–cases that prove the Constitution is dead.

    according to gallup the number of uninsured has plunged.

    ” Gullible much? Ignoring the fact that the number is only about 1% of the population (insignificant)”

    10 million people is not insignificant. keep trying!

    “the number means nothing because many of those people may have come from existing plans when they were FORCED to switch coverage.”

    before Obamacare people were dropped all the time. so much so that people embraced a new system.

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  12. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 410:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 409according to the NYT the number is 20% who haven’t paid their premium. that’s progress though because so many have signed up that isn’t even an issue anymore. the conversation has moved on to more esoteric things. that shows progress. also that the opponents keep moving the goalposts when wrong.

    Ignoring the fact that the percent that haven’t paid is only one fact we need to know, I’m glad the NYT can give us information that isn’t available. As I asked before, gullible much?

    As to moving the goal posts, the sign ups are clearly below the government’s goals. If anyone is going to move the goal posts it’s not going to be the critics of Obamacare.

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  13. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 11:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 8:
    RE: pfft @ 407 – Gullible much? Ignoring the fact that the number is only about 1% of the population (insignificant), the number means nothing because many of those people may have come from existing plans when they were FORCED to switch coverage. The numbers we need to find out are the total insured. Washington state just recently released that number for 2012, so we may be waiting a while.

    BTW, post 406 is the answer to the question you just asked in the weekly open thread–cases that prove the Constitution is dead.

    according to gallup the number of uninsured has plunged.

    ” Gullible much? Ignoring the fact that the number is only about 1% of the population (insignificant)”

    10 million people is not insignificant. keep trying!

    “the number means nothing because many of those people may have come from existing plans when they were FORCED to switch coverage.”

    before Obamacare people were dropped all the time. so much so that people embraced a new system.

    First, the Gallup information is not a valid source. It’s based on polling, and likely changes from month to month more than the “real” numbers. And in any case, that number was not “plunging.” The themselves describe the change as “modest,” and even using their numbers we are at about the same level as a year ago.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/166982/uninsured-rate-shows-initial-decline-2014.aspx

    Second, 1% is 1%. 1% is insignificant even if it is 10 million (which it isn’t–your math skills suck).

    Third, no one has embraced Obamacare. Go back to Gallup and see how popular it is.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/4708/healthcare-system.aspx

    But in any case, in addition to quitting making up facts you should quit trying to deflect from the fact that the number of people buying on the exchange doesn’t indicate an increase in sales. That would be like trying to point to the sales of a single auto manufacturer and claiming that their increase in sales is an increase in total sales. Don’t you understand anything? That’s a pretty simple point.

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  14. pfft

    12-16 million people are now covered under the ACA.

    http://acasignups.net/

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  15. Blake

    http://healthpolicyandmarket.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-one-thing-that-could-save.html
    -snip-
    Simply, health insurance plans that cost middle-class individuals and families 10% of their after-tax income and have average Silver Plan deductibles of more than $2,500 a month are not attractive and people won’t buy them any more enthusiastically next fall than they already have. See: Obamacare: The Uninsured Are Not Signing Up Because the Dogs Don’t Like It

    Doubling the fines for not buying in 2015 will only give the Democrats more political problems––and it doesn’t look to me like they are going to enforce the fines anyway.

    Health insurance plan executives are now faced with a daunting decision. How do they price the 2015 Obamacare exchange plans?

    Even if the administration announces they have signed-up about 6 million people by March 31, the number of people enrolling would be well below expectations––only about 25% of those subsidy eligible will have signed up by the deadline. An enrollment that small guarantees the risk pool is sicker and more expensive than it needs to be in order to be sustainable.

    But dramatically increasing the rates will only assure even fewer healthy people will sign up for 2015 and some of those who signed up for 2014 will back out over the higher rates. This is what a “death spiral” looks like.

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  16. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: pfft @ 414 – How many of that number were uninsured previously? How many that were insured previously are not now insured? How many people were insured outside the exchanges?

    Stated differently: Why do you post useless stats? We’ve gone over this before. Don’t you remember?

    RE: Blake @ 415 – It’s hard to imagine that the rates could increase more than they already have. But I read another article this morning indicating that they are expecting exactly that. If that happens, even more people will drop out.

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  17. Blake

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 416
    Kary… you know the insurance corps will increase the rates every penny they can get away with… that is their nature. Unfortunately, with the government now more involved providing subsidies, this means that they can probably get away with even more! It could get very very ugly…

    And remember: The cost of U$ health care is a huge tax on everything we produce – – especially for export. A car produced in Canada costs thousands less than one produced in the US just because of healthcare costs for the workers.

    Obama seemed to set his goal towards covering the uninsured and not reducing health care costs (doing such would have upset so many of the Democrats’ big funders). And it looks like he’ll reduce the uninsured from 45 million to 30 million… wow. (not to mention that their insurance is marginal at best and expensive…) What a boondoggle… cui bono??

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  18. Blake

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-studies-raise-red-flags-093000430.html
    -snip-
    While the White House can claim credit for a net increase of 9.3 million insured and a lowered uninsured rate from 20.5 percent to 15.8 percent, the data provides a significantly different picture than that painted by President Obama and the ACA’s advocates.

    First, a significant amount of this increase comes from Medicaid enrollments, not private insurance. Almost six million people enrolled in Medicaid, and earlier studies showed that a relatively small number of those came from the expansion built into the ACA; most of these would have been Medicaid-eligible prior to the reform.

    Another 8.2 million more people enrolled in employer-provided health care, as 7.1 million left the “other” category and another 1.6 million left the individual insurance markets. Only 3.9 million actually enrolled in insurance plans through state or federal exchanges – not 7.1 million as claimed by Obama. That number falls far short of even the lowered expectations issued by HHS and the White House earlier this year.

    Moreover, those who did enroll through the state exchanges didn’t provide the demographic lift and risk-pool support needed to prevent massive increases in either premiums or deductibles, or both, in the near future. Pharmacy benefit manager Express Scripts, which collected more data from insurers than HHS managed through its own exchanges, determined that the incoming enrollees require more medical attention than the previous risk pools, not less – which means that insurers will need to raise premiums even more than first thought.

    As Express Scripts, which studied changes in pharmacy benefits concludes that the ACA has succeeded in getting coverage to consumers who need it. However, that comes at a high cost for those who had their existing coverage canceled and saw their premiums and deductibles skyrocket as a result of Obamacare. Furthermore, the number of those who gained coverage may be even smaller than the RAND study concluded.

    Of those who enrolled in an exchange plan, Express Scripts finds, 43 percent already had Express Scripts coverage in 2013 – and at least some of the other 57 percent may have had coverage under another prescription-medication management service. If the total number of actual exchange enrollees is 3.9 million, the final number of previously uninsured exchange consumers may be only as high as 2.23 million.

    The debate on the law is far from over. When the next round of premium increases hits over the summer, and the market for employer-provided health insurance undergoes the same kind of massive disruption as the individual market did over the last six months, the debate over the honesty and integrity of the Obama administration may hit new levels of intensity.

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  19. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blake @ 418RE: Blake @ 417 – The Insurance commissioner still has to approve the rates, so presumably the companies were able to show something that would indicate they’d be paying out a lot more under these policies.

    It’s hard to imagine the premiums going even higher, but I wouldn’t rule that out. I’ve said in the past that part of Obamacare was the government shifting the cost from themselves to the people who pay for premiums.

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  20. pfft

    Obamacare has won. Move along now.

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  21. Blake

    Nice job Barack… Turns out he is a socialist… a corporate socialist! Finding more ways for the public sector to subsidize the corporate sector and increase private profits!
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-kills-employer-sponsored-healthcare-125900397.html
    A new report by S&P Capital IQ shows exactly why companies can’t resist shifting the burden of providing health care to the feds. The report says:
    •By shifting insurance to the employee, the Affordable Care Act presents an opportunity for U.S. companies to radically redefine the role they play in the health care system.
    •The ACA could save S & P 500 companies nearly $700 billion through 2025, about 4 percent of those companies’ current market capitalization.
    •If all U.S. companies with 50 or more employees made the switch, the total savings to businesses could be as high as $3.25 trillion through 2025.
    •The shift benefits employers the most as the government and consumers take on a larger funding role.

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  22. Kary L. Krismer

    I sure am glad that Obamacare has so many provisions to help control costs. That’s probably explains why the generic prescription I bought last year for $33.81 cost $66.67 this year. Same drug store and same brand of generic.

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