Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.
Last Thursday Redfin released their February market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):
Welcome to Real Estate Bizarro World, where falling supply means falling prices and scarce demand still leads to multiple offer situations. 2011 continues to shape up as an unusual year for the Seattle-area real estate market, with the number of homes for sale in February falling when it should be rising, the number of buyers still near all-time lows, and prices showing persistent signs of weakness.
…
With prices still dropping, buyers are exercising their muscle. “Buyers have a price in their head of what they’re willing to pay for a house, and they’re not willing to budge,” said Michelle. “They want to battle. They go into it looking for a deal and ready to beat people up.”“Buyers are not acquiescing to sellers,” agreed Kevin. “It may be a seller’s market by the numbers, but you need to be careful because buyers are very cautious and risk-averse.”
You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.
In the map below each zip code with enough sales in February is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.
Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was Mercer Island (98040), where sales shot up from just 8 in January to 22 in February. King County’s biggest decline was in Delridge (98126), where sales fell 36% from 11 in January to just 7 in February.
Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:
- King: 98052 — 27 sales.
- Snohomish: 98012 — 39 sales.
- Pierce: 98387 — 32 sales.
- Thurston: 98513 — 29 sales.
- Kitsap: 98312 — 22 sales.
Continuing the odd trend we’ve seen so far in 2011, inventory declined month-to-month in 52 King County neighborhoods, was flat in 3, and rose in 13. Year-to-year, the story was similar: 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 3 were flat, and the remaining 53 are all lower than a year ago.
The median price fell from a year ago in 42 King County zip codes, and rose in 15. The median price per square foot was down in 50 zip codes and up in just 8.
Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?
00
The Cream Rises to the Top
You can’t fool today’s RE buyers like you could fool the bubble buyers in 2006-2007. If they held off buying, they’ve seen their current rewards and if they’re even remotely interested in buying, they have the last 4-5 years of savvy to lean upon. They don’t trust MSM anymore [it's not just RE, it's a plethora of issues too] and they think for themselves.
It’s like the strong Americans from the 60s were.
If I were MSM, I’d stop the wild Pink Pony allegations, you’re just making the few qualified Seattle buyers even more suspicious….LOL
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A lot of blue when you go to price per square foot.
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Yup, buyers verses sellers- it’s a stand-off, shoot-out, at the pink pony corral. Somehow the ponies got caught in the cross-fire though, and they’re all dead. Where’s pfft- he can play the local veterinarian and claim they’re all going to pull through, while Ray pulls up with his truck from the rendering business. . .
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By Scotsman @ 3:
” These dead ponies are gems, I tell you. How often are you going to be able to buy a dead pink pony at today’s prices?”
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I have been house hunting in the Kirkland area for over a year now and in addition to the ongoing problem of deferred maintenance in a lot of listings, many of the current inventory of houses are considerably overpriced. It seems that owners will list a home at a much higher price than it could possibly sell for, and would rather just let it sit on the MLS for 300+ days than significantly bring down the price. For example, this bank-owned home was listed just a few days ago, but given recent comps and that the remodel is only 80% complete, I can’t imagine that $311/square foot is a realistic price point.
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/321-15th-Ave-980​33/home/461151
I agree with @softwarengineer that today’s buyers are a lot more savvy than the bubble buyers of 5 years ago, but are the sellers any more savvy? It seems like so many sellers still thinking that the market will “recover”.
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RE: softwarengineer @ 1 – Totally agree. Falling supply only leads to a price increase when the current price is reasonable. Why, it’s almost like prices have been horribly out of whack, as if we were in some sort of bubble!
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What’s going on with 98122 and 98106 in the map?
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RE: B&W Nikes @ 7 – I don’t understand the question. They look fine to me…
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RE: The Tim @ 8 – They just look like they might be skewed a little low or something, I don’t see much in listings that runs along side those low medians…. that or I don’t understand what I’m looking at (which is pretty likely)
98122 Median Price: $285,000 Med. $/SqFt: $191
98106 Median Price: $150,000 Med. $/SqFt: $149
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RE: B&W Nikes @ 9 –
For 98122, it looks like there were 2 sales that hadn’t been reported to the MLS when the report ran, but even when you include those the SFH median only goes up to $330k (this home).
For 98106 I just discovered a property matching error that resulted in the most expensive sale being counted twice. When you take that out the median actually goes down to $138,500. Here are the 8 sales. Half are indeed under that price, half are over.
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RE: The Tim @ 10 – Ok thanks, wondered if I was just being stupider than my usual monday. Curious, at the bottom of the page here 98122 Redfin says
Price $436,000 Beds 3.3 Baths 2.0 SQFT 2,189 $/SQFT $232
At the bottom of the page 98106 Redfin says
Price $230,000 Beds 3.3 Baths 1.9 SQFT 1,666 $/SQFT $149
…is it displays expressing differences in average vs median from the map above?
It looks like 98106 got totally hammered with foreclosures and distress sales… thanks for those details, I’ll be buying some deep beer pitchers for friends next time I’m over that way.
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RE: B&W Nikes @ 11 – No it’s displaying median on the map, but those searches are for the last 3 months, so halfway through December through now. The stats in the report and what I quoted above is from just February.
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RE: The Tim @ 12 – Aha. Monday it is! Thanks again.
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By B&W Nikes @ 13:
98122, besides the Central District, includes Madrona and Leschi, Lake Washington waterfront, and some ritzy ‘hoods. Kurt Cobain lived and died in the 98122. Howard Schultz lived in the 98122, pissing off neighbors because he put his fence up on the city park side of the property, the same park that bordered Cobain’s place.
The 98106 doesn’t have any elegant or especially desirable parts. it’s always been the place to look for a cheap house. Neighborhoods like Delridge and Highland Park, in the 98106, saw huge increases in home prices during the bubble, higher than the rest of the area. Now, like other less sought after, cheaper ‘hoods ,98106 is seeing bigger declines than the rest of the area. The 98178 is another zip code that has seen some huge declines since ’07.
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We’ve had this discussion every year for the past three years, in my opinion.
There are people who buy so they can be close to the school they want for the kids. Now especially, the school district is more strict about you actually having an address in the proper shool area.
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RE: KirklandBuyer @ 5 –
Half finished projects like that are tough sells. Most people don’t want to be bothered with having to finish it to live in it, and there could be some problems getting financing for it. How much do you think it would cost to finish it out?
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I think we will see the further dip in sales in March/April due to very unfortunate crisis in Japan. We almost bought house but pulled out due to this uncertainty and there are probably other people that think the same. If radiation leaks out of those reactors and gets carried towards California and Washington I suspect further real estate price decline.
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RE: AlanFord @ 17 – That seems a bit extreme given that Chernobyl didn’t have any lasting effects here, but being paranoid, I guess I understand.
What amazes me about this Japan thing is that while they did build the plants to withstand an earthquake, they apparently didn’t build them to withstand a tsunami in the country that gave us the word for tsunami.
I also haven’t understood this whole idea of backup power from diesel generators. Why do you need diesel generators when you have a huge power supply right there? I read in the Times today that they have recently installed steam generators as backup at Hanford that run off the reactor. Having everything self-contained in one complex would seem to be much more reliable.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 18 –
Speaking from a Nuclear Engineer Background
Yes, the risks of radiation from Japan to Washington St are moot.
The risks of radiation to Japan and even Tokyo are a TOTALLY different issue, our naval boats pulled away from the Japanese coast [how far away were they, 80 miles?] when the radiation was measurable. I was watching MSNBC, the liberal news channel, and they seemed to be FAR more pragmatic on the radiation dangers than FOX [BTW, FOX is owned by Japan].
How bad is it and is it going to be another meltdown disaster(s) like Chernobyl [or I'd add, FAR worse]…the Caesium isotope has a half life of 30 years, meaning if this has been sprayed on the countryside, its hanging around for decades, unless buldozed away.
Don’t trust the news coming from Japan, there’s been a history of coverups over there on reactor safety that MSNBC documented from a variety of MSM news sources too….safety recalls on autos are another Japanese Achilles Heel.
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RE: softwarengineer @ 19 -Impact of Japan Crisis On Local RE Prices
I see a few months of transition, then there’s going to be massive rebuilding in Japan and an overpopulated country with none of it’s own resources will be relying on a global materials and energy diet. Especially oil. The only thing that will slow the Japanese appetite for MASSIVE oil consumption for rebuilding would be a collapse of their economy and currency [stagflation]. That may be good for us, but bad for them.
I’ve already heard that LCD and some microcircuits will be in short supply; meaning electronic prices will go up and there will be scarcities worldwide. Will this affect our own automobile parts and Boeing’s commercial/defense parts too? Yes.
To what degree? No one is saying, but the new Apple Iphones sold out as fast as they hit the shelves. Stocks are currently plummetting, so investors must know something too.
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By softwarengineer @ 20:
I’m not sure I would connect the two (the DOW peaked about a month ago and this crisis is newer), but to the extent investors are worried I wonder if their worried about radiation or the impact on the Japanese economy of the total damage? Possible financial collapse in Japan?
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Japan is Washington state’s 3rd largest trading partner, it will have an effect on the economy here.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 4:
“and they’re all coming back…every effing dead pink pony.”
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RE: Dirty Renter @ 23 –
Have you seen the insicors on those pink ponies! I’m pretty sure they turn completely red after they feed.
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RE: GregD @ 22 –
Now if we only knew whether the effect would be up or down.;-)
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RE: One Eyed Man @ 25 – It clearly won’t be all negative, because they will need building supplies. But it could have negative effects, like delaying the 787 even further.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26 -Automobiles In Japan Will Go Up in Price
Making the Detroit units shine better. That is good economic news for America….albeit, I know the electric power steering unit that had the safety recall on Chevy Cobalt [not Corolla, same part too...LOL] is Japanese….there’s other parts too on both domestic and foreign brands, I’m sure, that we buy from them and they buy from us….Article in part:
“…The home of Sony, Toshiba and Hitachi, Japan produces some of the world’s best consumer gadgets and the components that power them. Prices of memory chips and liquid crystal displays have surged since the quake, The WSJ reports, amid fears of shortages and supply disruption.There have been no reports of shortages yet, but Sony alone has halted production at six factories in northern Japan. And I don’t want to incite concern among Apple’s rabid supporters, but it’s worth noting that Toshiba supplies NAND flash memory for use in Apple’s hugely popular iPhones and iPads….”
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/from-gas-to-gadgets-japan%27s-disaster-means-higher-prices-536027.html
Also, I predict this disaster causes Toyota, Nissan, etc sales to slump MASSIVELY due to unit shortages and replacement parts [assembled in USA doesn't mean the parts weren't made in Japan and some vice versa too]. From what I can see though, the Japanese [S. Korean and European too] units assembled in America with a good share of American parts are mostly the big trucks and SUVs. The hybrids, luxury cars [Lexus, etc] and small misers [like Aveos] are 100% Japanese or other foreign. If you own Japanese made spare parts units, be prepared to dig deep into your pocket book to get it fixed, if it can be fixed at all, without exclusive use of used parts, or worse yet, HORRIFYINGLY marked up scarce new part inventory still available.
If Japanese cars sales go down the toilet, look for Japan to close all the American plants and just produce 100% assembled in Japan ASAP, to protect their interests over ours….we’d do it too.
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