Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

41 responses to “New Exchange Turns Market Foresight Into Pure Profit”

  1. Pegasus

    Only a weak-minded entity could build something like the Seattle Bubble Real Estate Speculation Exchange and believe it will work.

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  2. One Eyed Man

    Suzanne researched this house for me and said I could do it. I just saw the virtual tour and I think its got a pant load of feng shui. I’d like to open an account and place a short on this listing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jThcc5lbfOs&feature=related

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  3. Feedback

    Congratulations, Tim! I was worried that you had run out of ideas for this blog since the last 10 articles (excluding those compendia of Excel charts) basically boil down to a victory lap for you. I’m very proud of you for having developed an actual product from which men may benefit.

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  4. Pegasus

    By One Eyed Man @ 2:

    Suzanne researched this house for me and said I could do it. I just saw the virtual tour and I think its got a pant load of feng shui. I’d like to open an account and place a short on this listing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jThcc5lbfOs&feature=related

    I would like to go long the real estate agent in the video. She appears to be able to consistently tell the truth and is not hard on the eyes.

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    Why try to predict the future, when you don’t have to? Genius!

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  6. rent for now

    Genius!! I can’t wait to make some of that pure profit! I love this country!

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  7. Ira Sacharoff

    Step right up folks, everyone’s a winner! It’ll cost you nothing but money, and everyone knows that real estate always goes up, or down, or stays the same.

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  8. softwarengineer

    Investments in What?

    I confused, is this an investment in a house(s) for sale with a title or is it just a sideline game like an office football lottery. Single Resource Center singles dances sells lottery tickets on a 50/50 split, gives the club member that won the lottery 50% and the club keeps the rest of the cash…something like that?

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  9. Kary L. Krismer

    The impact of this is huge. For example, renting is now clearly better than owning because you can take your 3.5% down and invest in REviolent love instead. Within a couple of years you’ll be able to buy your dream McMansion for cash.

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  10. TheHulk

    I loved the snapshot of the REviolent love floor in action. Could we have additional indices in REviolent love? I can think of a few that would be useful to people on this board:
    The RaySexIndex – allows people to speculate on Claim Jumper related “meltdowns” and allowed Claim Jumper exposures for Ray in a year?
    The SWEIndex – goes up everytime SWE mentions overpopulation. You can bet your last dollar this one will never go down :)
    And oh yes, clearly none of this has anything to do with the day after yesterday and the day before tomorrow.

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  11. whatsmyname

    Tim,

    Congratulations on your new enterprise. This will dovetail neatly with our new HDRA (Housing derivatives rating agency). You can never be too sure about your counterparty’s strength. Our analysts are always willing to “work with” the entity to be rated. Plus, our prices are the lowest. Is anyone doing pre-work on the bailout?

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  12. Jonness

    By softwarengineer @ 8:

    Investments in What?I confused, is this an investment in a house(s) for sale with a title or is it just a sideline game like an office football lottery. Single Resource Center singles dances sells lottery tickets on a 50/50 split, gives the club member that won the lottery 50% and the club keeps the rest of the cash…something like that?

    It’s a lottery, and the most you can win is a $25 dinner certificate per unit. TheTim keeps the rest so he can afford to keep up with ever increasing server traffic.

    If only Tim had rolled this out back in 2007, I could have eaten free for life. Then again, if the dinner certificates were to Claim Jumper, Ray might have cornered the market. :)

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  13. Drone

    This is so exciting! Since real estate always goes down now, I can use RESx to bet against it… finally I can invest in a sure thing, with no chance of loss! I’m thinking of cashing out my 401k and putting it all into Tim’s exchange. The penalties might be bad, but I think I’d make it back in about 2 months. Now I’ll finally be able to afford my dream house, and maybe even retire in the next 3 years. Thanks Tim!

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  14. Kevin Lisota

    Pricing on my neighbor’s townhome seems particularly volatile at the moment. Will REviolent love allow me to place a straddle on the home to take advantage of the volatility?

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  15. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Kevin Lisota @ 14 – Do you even need to ask? Of course it does!

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  16. 2ktngo

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

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  17. HappyRenter

    I was wondering why DJIA and S&P 500 were up today!

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  18. Pegasus

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    Sure…just ruin the dream…

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  19. whatsmyname

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    What? It’s not real? Does this mean I have to lay off everyone at HDRA? Cruel, cruel joke.
    By inference, at least now we can pet the burning dog.

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  20. redmondjp

    Based upon the picture, we’ve got the red team, the yellow team, and some Master’s Champions in the mix, and who let some of those guys in there w/o a jacket???

    Which Realty company back in the 1980s made their agents wear those yellow jackets, I know one of them did?

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  21. WestSideBilly

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    Don’t pet a burning dog, eh?

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  22. Blake

    :-)
    Gotta good laugh from that.
    thx Tim

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  23. Kary L. Krismer

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    Somehow I’m hearing John Cleese say: “Well that sort of bloody ruins it, doesn’t it!”

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  24. Julie Lyda

    Almost like Robert Shiller’s real estate investment index. Too bad it went bust. I mean really, create a housing investment product based on your market parameters that the whole nation bases the housing market trend on? How could you lose?

    The TE Bubble Index! The bottom is here, no where to go but up!

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  25. Scotsman

    “You—the astute, sharp-witted, and attractive readers of Seattle Bubble. . .”

    Oh gawd- another post about Ira. Ira, Ira, Ira. I understand One Eye’s fascination, but you, too, Tim? That’s it- I’m gonna grow a beard and change my avatar.

    P.S.- my check is in the mail to set up an account. Have you given any thought to setting up specific pools- say Kent, Bellevue, Greenlake, etc? Might be some interesting spread options.

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  26. Peter Witting

    RE: 2ktngo @ 16 – Dork.

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  27. Pegasus

    By Peter Witting @ 26:

    RE: 2ktngo @ 16 – Dork.

    Don’t be so critical of 2ktngo. I think it was just his exuberance of suddenly discovering the truth after staring at the post for three hours. I think it was just one of those “Golly Gee Wilikers” moments for the somewhat slower than normal 2ktngo.

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  28. David Losh

    RE: Julie Lyda @ 24

    That was my first thought about the Case Schiller “Index.” On the way up it was something to talk about. Today they should let it die natural death.

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  29. B.

    Is that Art Garfunkel on the trading floor?

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  30. Dirty Renter

    Turn those machines back on!

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  31. tomtom

    “The smart money is back in real estate,” said Betty Graham, president of Coldwell Banker Previews International

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2014653428_mansion01.html

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  32. Mel Torme

    RE: 2ktngo @ 16 – They all know that buddy, so, jokey on you!

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  33. karl

    wow, I suppose you could use zillow as a rating agency (maybe a zowwie AAA or zapper BBB)if you want to bundle some stuff into securities. I am sure you could sell them in europe…. those guys will buy anything

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  34. Shoe Guy

    Could somebody please score me a high paying redundant government job so that I can afford to start investing in this thing?

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  35. Pegasus

    By Shoe Guy @ 34:

    Could somebody please score me a high paying redundant government job so that I can afford to start investing in this thing?

    How successful are you at picking NCAA March Madness brackets?

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  36. Sanguis

    Wow, REviolent love went up 50% today. Buy some shares ASAP or be priced out forever!

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  37. Macro Investor

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    You sound like an angry, confused renter… possibly even a terrorist. Go buy a house already, and never doubt the Tim again.

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  38. Hugh Dominic

    Whoa. Surreal. I had been thinking about trying this, only, FOR REAL. I had been looking for a way to increase my exposure to Seattle RE as a percentage of my portfolio gradually, before buying a house. Meanwhile, my retiring neighbor would like to do the opposite.

    And I thought, hey, there should be a market for that!

    Reviolent love!

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  39. Scotsman

    REviolent love? More like reviolent love- making Seattle real estate sexy once again. Researching Suzanne- checking her prices. . .

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  40. bitpusher

    Will you be offering second derivatives? I want to buy puts on some calls.

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  41. Real World Express

    Avoided commenting yesterday since this is in jest…BUT, I have proposed similar ideas in all seriousness.

    What amazes me is that all the Super Brains and “Masters of the Universe” who created the financial instruments of disaster during the boom, have suddenly disappeared into the woodwork.

    Given that someone wants to own a home, but doesn’t want to take the hit on depreciation, shouldn’t there be a kind of “derivative” or “insurance” to either mitigate or eliminate that risk? Isn’t shifting risk to make an investment acceptable what the Goldman Sachs guys were doing?

    So….where are they now?

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