New Exchange Turns Market Foresight Into Pure Profit

Five and a half years ago, I launched Seattle Bubble with a simple goal in mind: Analyze the Seattle-area residential real estate market and provide a forum for people to discuss ideas and share insights.

While the housing market has had it’s ups and downs (and way downs) over the years, growth at Seattle Bubble has been nothing but up, up, up. Today, thousands of people visit every day to learn about the latest market happenings and participate in the lively discussions. Earlier this week we even passed the hundred-thousand comment mark.

You—the astute, sharp-witted, and attractive readers of Seattle Bubble—saw the bursting housing bubble a mile away. You wisely avoided the hype. You told Suzanne to stuff it, and did your own damn research.

In the end though, all you got out of all that hard work was the satisfaction of saving hundreds of thousands of dollars on your next home and the right to brag about your foresight online and at parties with underwater homedebtors.

Where the market is headed tomorrow, next month, and next year is anybody’s guess. Of course, you don’t have to guess. You can research the fundamentals and figure it out for yourself… but why bother, when the rewards are so slim?

That’s why today I’m proud to announce the a way to turn your wisdom about the future into cold, hard cash. Introducing the Seattle Bubble Real Estate Speculation Exchange, or RESEx, for short.

The Market Economy by Flickr user MojoBaer
The RESEx Trading Floor

I know what you’re thinking: “How can that be possible? How does RESEx work?” Great question. I’m glad you asked.

With RESEx you can invest your long-saved dollars in indices based on individual homes. Is your best friend’s Crown Hill craftsman crashing? Cash in by shorting his home’s stock, or loading up on put options.

You can also use RESEx to make a call on an entire neighborhood. Is Ballard about to boom? Load up on some shares, quick! The financial opportunities made possible by RESEx are endless.

RESEx launches today (April 1st) in Seattle, with expansion to an additional 25 major U.S. cities planned by the end of 2011.

Finally the time has come to cash in on all of that hard-earned housing market insight. Join RESEx, and start building your future today.

*RESEx investing is for seasoned investors / housing analysts only. Before investing, consider all objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Seattle Bubble for a prospectus. Read it carefully. Do not apply directly to the retina. Past performance does not guarantee future intelligence. Never pet a burning dog.
  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

41 comments:

  1. 1
    Pegasus says:

    Only a weak-minded entity could build something like the Seattle Bubble Real Estate Speculation Exchange and believe it will work.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    One Eyed Man says:

    Suzanne researched this house for me and said I could do it. I just saw the virtual tour and I think its got a pant load of feng shui. I’d like to open an account and place a short on this listing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jThcc5lbfOs&feature=related

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  3. 3
    Feedback says:

    Congratulations, Tim! I was worried that you had run out of ideas for this blog since the last 10 articles (excluding those compendia of Excel charts) basically boil down to a victory lap for you. I’m very proud of you for having developed an actual product from which men may benefit.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    Pegasus says:

    By One Eyed Man @ 2:

    Suzanne researched this house for me and said I could do it. I just saw the virtual tour and I think its got a pant load of feng shui. I’d like to open an account and place a short on this listing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jThcc5lbfOs&feature=related

    I would like to go long the real estate agent in the video. She appears to be able to consistently tell the truth and is not hard on the eyes.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    Why try to predict the future, when you don’t have to? Genius!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    rent for now says:

    Genius!! I can’t wait to make some of that pure profit! I love this country!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7

    Step right up folks, everyone’s a winner! It’ll cost you nothing but money, and everyone knows that real estate always goes up, or down, or stays the same.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8

    Investments in What?

    I confused, is this an investment in a house(s) for sale with a title or is it just a sideline game like an office football lottery. Single Resource Center singles dances sells lottery tickets on a 50/50 split, gives the club member that won the lottery 50% and the club keeps the rest of the cash…something like that?

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  9. 9
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    The impact of this is huge. For example, renting is now clearly better than owning because you can take your 3.5% down and invest in REviolent love instead. Within a couple of years you’ll be able to buy your dream McMansion for cash.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10
    TheHulk says:

    I loved the snapshot of the REviolent love floor in action. Could we have additional indices in REviolent love? I can think of a few that would be useful to people on this board:
    The RaySexIndex – allows people to speculate on Claim Jumper related “meltdowns” and allowed Claim Jumper exposures for Ray in a year?
    The SWEIndex – goes up everytime SWE mentions overpopulation. You can bet your last dollar this one will never go down :)
    And oh yes, clearly none of this has anything to do with the day after yesterday and the day before tomorrow.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    whatsmyname says:

    Tim,

    Congratulations on your new enterprise. This will dovetail neatly with our new HDRA (Housing derivatives rating agency). You can never be too sure about your counterparty’s strength. Our analysts are always willing to “work with” the entity to be rated. Plus, our prices are the lowest. Is anyone doing pre-work on the bailout?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    Jonness says:

    By softwarengineer @ 8:

    Investments in What?I confused, is this an investment in a house(s) for sale with a title or is it just a sideline game like an office football lottery. Single Resource Center singles dances sells lottery tickets on a 50/50 split, gives the club member that won the lottery 50% and the club keeps the rest of the cash…something like that?

    It’s a lottery, and the most you can win is a $25 dinner certificate per unit. TheTim keeps the rest so he can afford to keep up with ever increasing server traffic.

    If only Tim had rolled this out back in 2007, I could have eaten free for life. Then again, if the dinner certificates were to Claim Jumper, Ray might have cornered the market. :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. 13
    Drone says:

    This is so exciting! Since real estate always goes down now, I can use RESx to bet against it… finally I can invest in a sure thing, with no chance of loss! I’m thinking of cashing out my 401k and putting it all into Tim’s exchange. The penalties might be bad, but I think I’d make it back in about 2 months. Now I’ll finally be able to afford my dream house, and maybe even retire in the next 3 years. Thanks Tim!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    Kevin Lisota says:

    Pricing on my neighbor’s townhome seems particularly volatile at the moment. Will REviolent love allow me to place a straddle on the home to take advantage of the volatility?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. 15
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Kevin Lisota @ 14 – Do you even need to ask? Of course it does!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. 16
    2ktngo says:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17
    HappyRenter says:

    I was wondering why DJIA and S&P 500 were up today!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. 18
    Pegasus says:

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    Sure…just ruin the dream…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. 19
    whatsmyname says:

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    What? It’s not real? Does this mean I have to lay off everyone at HDRA? Cruel, cruel joke.
    By inference, at least now we can pet the burning dog.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. 20
    redmondjp says:

    Based upon the picture, we’ve got the red team, the yellow team, and some Master’s Champions in the mix, and who let some of those guys in there w/o a jacket???

    Which Realty company back in the 1980s made their agents wear those yellow jackets, I know one of them did?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. 21
    WestSideBilly says:

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    Don’t pet a burning dog, eh?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. 22
    Blake says:

    :-)
    Gotta good laugh from that.
    thx Tim

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. 23
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    Somehow I’m hearing John Cleese say: “Well that sort of bloody ruins it, doesn’t it!”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. 24
    Julie Lyda says:

    Almost like Robert Shiller’s real estate investment index. Too bad it went bust. I mean really, create a housing investment product based on your market parameters that the whole nation bases the housing market trend on? How could you lose?

    The TE Bubble Index! The bottom is here, no where to go but up!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  25. 25
    Scotsman says:

    “You—the astute, sharp-witted, and attractive readers of Seattle Bubble. . .”

    Oh gawd- another post about Ira. Ira, Ira, Ira. I understand One Eye’s fascination, but you, too, Tim? That’s it- I’m gonna grow a beard and change my avatar.

    P.S.- my check is in the mail to set up an account. Have you given any thought to setting up specific pools- say Kent, Bellevue, Greenlake, etc? Might be some interesting spread options.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. 26
    Peter Witting says:

    RE: 2ktngo @ 16 – Dork.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  27. 27
    Pegasus says:

    By Peter Witting @ 26:

    RE: 2ktngo @ 16 – Dork.

    Don’t be so critical of 2ktngo. I think it was just his exuberance of suddenly discovering the truth after staring at the post for three hours. I think it was just one of those “Golly Gee Wilikers” moments for the somewhat slower than normal 2ktngo.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  28. 28
    David Losh says:

    RE: Julie Lyda @ 24

    That was my first thought about the Case Schiller “Index.” On the way up it was something to talk about. Today they should let it die natural death.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  29. 29
    B. says:

    Is that Art Garfunkel on the trading floor?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  30. 30
    Dirty Renter says:

    Turn those machines back on!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  31. 31
    tomtom says:

    “The smart money is back in real estate,” said Betty Graham, president of Coldwell Banker Previews International

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2014653428_mansion01.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  32. 32
    Mel Torme says:

    RE: 2ktngo @ 16 – They all know that buddy, so, jokey on you!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  33. 33
    karl says:

    wow, I suppose you could use zillow as a rating agency (maybe a zowwie AAA or zapper BBB)if you want to bundle some stuff into securities. I am sure you could sell them in europe…. those guys will buy anything

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  34. 34
    Shoe Guy says:

    Could somebody please score me a high paying redundant government job so that I can afford to start investing in this thing?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  35. 35
    Pegasus says:

    By Shoe Guy @ 34:

    Could somebody please score me a high paying redundant government job so that I can afford to start investing in this thing?

    How successful are you at picking NCAA March Madness brackets?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  36. 36
    Sanguis says:

    Wow, REviolent love went up 50% today. Buy some shares ASAP or be priced out forever!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  37. 37
    Macro Investor says:

    By 2ktngo @ 16:

    It’s April Fool’s joke, you maroon-painted Seattle Bubble thinkers.

    You sound like an angry, confused renter… possibly even a terrorist. Go buy a house already, and never doubt the Tim again.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  38. 38
    Hugh Dominic says:

    Whoa. Surreal. I had been thinking about trying this, only, FOR REAL. I had been looking for a way to increase my exposure to Seattle RE as a percentage of my portfolio gradually, before buying a house. Meanwhile, my retiring neighbor would like to do the opposite.

    And I thought, hey, there should be a market for that!

    Reviolent love!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  39. 39
    Scotsman says:

    REviolent love? More like reviolent love- making Seattle real estate sexy once again. Researching Suzanne- checking her prices. . .

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  40. 40
    bitpusher says:

    Will you be offering second derivatives? I want to buy puts on some calls.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  41. 41
    Real World Express says:

    Avoided commenting yesterday since this is in jest…BUT, I have proposed similar ideas in all seriousness.

    What amazes me is that all the Super Brains and “Masters of the Universe” who created the financial instruments of disaster during the boom, have suddenly disappeared into the woodwork.

    Given that someone wants to own a home, but doesn’t want to take the hit on depreciation, shouldn’t there be a kind of “derivative” or “insurance” to either mitigate or eliminate that risk? Isn’t shifting risk to make an investment acceptable what the Goldman Sachs guys were doing?

    So….where are they now?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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