Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

429 responses to “Global Economic June Thread”

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  1. David Losh

    RE: Scotsman @ 396

    You are ignoring the fact that American business only needs to fund emerging market activity to make profits. They don’t have to have United States consumers to have profits. Profits drive Wall Street. Production is just something corporations do to funnel the money. It’s just like, or exactly like, money laundering.

    Financing is the end result. A little debt here, some interest income over there, multiple that by a few billion, and you have a securities market that can be bought sold, or traded for additional profits.

    The government needs to step in and spend our tax dollars on providing for the public welfare. We need protection from our own businesses. We need protection from the insurance, and banking sectors who are completely out of control.

    Who do we give more money to anyway? The government, the insurance companies or banking finance? I get confused, but know for a fact that my government needs to provide for th public welfare. I don’t see that in my credit card applications.

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  2. pfft
  3. pfft

    I haven’t been around for a week. Is everyone enjoying our heatwave courtesy of climate change?

    no amount of evidence unfortunately will convince the anti-science crowd.

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  4. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 68:

    “There has not been one quarter in which actual economic expansion occurred, on net, funded by improvements in actual economic output since 1980 during the so-called “great economy” we have enjoyed over the last 30 years. Not one time, even with the introduction of the personal computer, the introduction of the Internet, and with the so-called “great productivity” improvements that we have been sold as “facts” by the so-called mainstream media. . . We have literally put the nation’s forward “progress” on the credit card in each and every three month period since 1980!”

    And now that the bill’s come due we don’t have anything real to pay it with. We are so screwed. . .

    http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=190174

    people really think we haven’t grown since 1980? hilarious.

    the idiocracy has arrived.

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  5. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 75:

    Dang those unintended consequences:

    “A new report out yesterday from The Heritage Foundation shows private sector job creation dropped dramatically almost immediately after President Barack Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare) into law.
    From the recessionâ��s low point in January 2009 until April 2010, when Obamacare went into effect, the private sector created about 67,600 jobs a month. After the president signed PPACA into law, that number slowed to a meager 6,400 jobs a month â�� a more than 90 percent decrease or less than one-tenth the previous rate.”

    I guess the good news is you don’t need a job if you can get your health care for free. This also brings to mind the old addage that socialiusm is great . . . until you run out of other people’s money.

    http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/07/Economic-Recovery-Stalled-After-Obamacare-Passed

    it’s heritage so you can bet they are wrong. HCR doesn’t kick in significantly for awhile…

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  6. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 81:

    RE: Blurtman @ 380

    Is living in the past really all that productive? Please explain how tearing down now largely irrelevant past conservatives is anything but a poor substitute for meaningful discussion of current topics.

    The majority already knows that everything from early diaper rash infections to the current economic malaise is Booosh’s fault. Next, please. By the way, we’re half way through 2011- a full generation (or two) past where many liberal minds are stuck.

    I’m really not that harsh a person, but come on. . . .

    polls show bush is still largely blamed for our economic mess.

    Public rejects GOP on debt, blames economy on Bush
    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_07/public_rejects_gop_on_debt_bla030865.php

    next!

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  7. pfft

    “From the recessionâ��s low point in January 2009 until April 2010, when Obamacare went into effect, the private sector created about 67,600 jobs a month.”

    what? there were only two months of jobs growth that entire time. why do you post such obvious nonsense from such an obviously biased source?

    this chart clearly shows that there were only 2 months of job growth during the time they talk about. they say private jobs but even dealing with government layoffs wouldn’t make the numbers work.

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/privatejobs_mar11.jpg

    basically Hertiage sucks but we already knew that.

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  8. Blurtman

    Flogging the dead horse yet again, here is the soverign debt analyst at S&P stating that if the USG paid bondholders, but not others, there would be no default.

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000035313

    Once again, Tim Geithner has been shown to be a terribble liar. As his claims to the contrary were obviously false, what is one to believe about Geithner?

    1.) believes that his words can sway anyone in spite of reality
    2.) really has no clue what he is doing
    3.) is lazy and just doesn’t care.
    4.) just wants to get on to the big office at Goldman Sachs
    5.) all of the above

    Can’t he do better than that? Jeepers, he is the head of the US Treasury!

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  9. David Losh

    Just to finish with that oil conversation, the oil supply “jumped” today because release of those emergency oil reserves last month by the United States, and Europe. It was another $1 decrease in the oil future delivery price.

    $1?

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  10. pfft

    By Blurtman @ 408:

    Flogging the dead horse yet again, here is the soverign debt analyst at S&P stating that if the USG paid bondholders, but not others, there would be no default.

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000035313

    Once again, Tim Geithner has been shown to be a terribble liar. As his claims to the contrary were obviously false, what is one to believe about Geithner?

    1.) believes that his words can sway anyone in spite of reality
    2.) really has no clue what he is doing
    3.) is lazy and just doesn’t care.
    4.) just wants to get on to the big office at Goldman Sachs
    5.) all of the above

    Can’t he do better than that? Jeepers, he is the head of the US Treasury!

    so now you’re touting the ratings agencies?

    you’re favoring the rich over SS and medicare recipients? over paying our soldiers? your little plan only works in a fantasy world. Stiffing medicare and SS recipients is WORSE than a default.

    you’re in fantasy land.

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  11. Blurtman

    RE: pfft @ 410 – No. Just that I have posted from several sources that illustrate that Geithner is a terrible liar. He and Larry Summers are a poor reflection on an inexperienced and eager to please Obama.

    I have berated Obama for threatening SS.payments, but not payments to treasuries bondholders.

    Geithner is the Christopher Cox of the Treasury Department. A W Bush like choice..

    Personally, I need to be convinced that Obama is anything more than a well spoken, well dressed man whose backup career choice was in corporate law.

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  12. Spherical

    RE: Blurtman @ 408 – Regarding the non-necessity of default: Based on current government receipts, the government would have four choices if the debt ceiling doesn’t rise:

    1) Pay bondholders, but pay for NO discretionary spending (bye-bye FDA, NASA, FBI, etc.), and still not have enough to pay non-discretionary (i.e. SS, medicare, medicaid get shorted).
    2) Pay all of non-discretionary with drastic cuts to discretionary. Bondholders get nothing.
    3) Pay all of discretionary with cuts to non-discretionary. Bondholders get nothing.
    4) Short everyone.

    So yes, we could avoid a technical default to bondholders. No, we can’t avoid it without creating a political, economic, and moral disaster. Whether option one would still result in a credit rating downgrade I think is an open question– a country that can’t pay its bills without burning down the house to do it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

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  13. Blurtman

    US Government Says Geithner is Full of chocolate:

    U.S. Contingency Plan Gives Bondholders Priority

    The U.S. Treasury will give priority to making interest payments to holders of government bonds when due if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, according to an administration official.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Contingency-Plan-Gives-bloomberg-2604131065.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

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  14. Blurtman

    RE: Spherical @ 12 – Moody’s and S&P says the USG would not be in default if it prioritized paying bonsholders. In fact, Moody’s and S&P expect that to happen. That doesn’t mean the USG is off the hook for being in default, BTW, just that this would not be the cause.

    “(Moody’s and S&P)…already implicitly assumed that the Treasury would prioritize debt payments to preserve the U.S.’s rating.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/U-S-Default-Is-Possible-atlantic-4262849159.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

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  15. Spherical

    RE: Blurtman @ 414 – Errr.. did you read the article you posted? It’s titled “U.S. Default Is Possible: Treasury May Not Prioritize Debt Payments.”

    Here’s the quote you posted and what comes after it: …”already implicitly assumed that the Treasury would prioritize debt payments to preserve the U.S.’s rating.

    And yet, the report above suggests that the agencies’ assumption is incorrect. If the debt ceiling is not raised and the Treasury uses its consequently insufficient funds to pay bills as they come due in August, then before long an interest payment will be missed.”

    Regardless, I was assuming in my earlier post that the Treasury would have the flexibility to prioritize payments. My point wasn’t that default has to happen, it’s that the President/Treasury would be left with a Sophie’s Choice if the debt ceiling isn’t raised.

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  16. Blurtman

    RE: Spherical @ 415 – It would be an odd choice to place more credence in an author too lazy to have researched past crises and the USG’s capability to prioritize, than in Moody’s and S&P.

    Yes, obviously, if there is not enough to go around, proritizing might have to occur. As your assumption contradicts what has been stated by Tim Geithner, perhaps you may also share the belief that he is a terrible liar and full of chocolate.

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  17. Spherical

    RE: Blurtman @ 416 – We’re talking about the same Moody’s and S&P that gave AAA ratings to junk CODs for years, right?

    As far the chocolate quotient of various politicians and appointees… for the most part, if it works in DC and wears a suit, it’s probably lying. I believe the PC term is PR. That’s not to say they don’t have good reasons for that, it’s just that they’re mostly political reasons. At the moment, what is happening is exactly what the politics demand. The publicly stated position of the administration is that Aug 2 is a hard line because that helps reinforce the urgency of making a deal, and it helps keep public pressure on the GOP (who polls show are taking a bigger beating in this than Obama). At the same time, they’ve got a lot of anxious millionaire and billionaire Wall Street donors who need reassuring that Obama isn’t as nuts as the Tea Party, and will take the necessary steps to prevent default, so there’s a lot of stage whispering (“leaks”) about how the bond holders will be taken care of.

    I’m entirely confident that everyone in DC understands that it’s just one big political theater… well, everyone but the Tea Party in the House, who honestly seem to think this is for real, and who are the only people that everyone should be well and truly afraid of.

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  18. Blurtman

    RE: Spherical @ 417 – Yes, Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch are not to be believed, but then again, they are.

    Perhaps team Obama shoud pay more to these corrupt firms than the CDS holders.

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  19. Scotsman

    RE: pfft @ 403

    While you were gone another giat hole was blown in AGW theory. Looks like the data doesn’t support the theory:

    “NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

    And another- don’t have the link handy, but the guy who did the polar bear stories was found a fraud and fired or something. Time to find a new religion.

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  20. David Losh

    RE: Scotsman @ 419

    Less emissions mean the threat of global warming is diminishing. The bigger issue, and problem, is that people ignore the root cause of dumping pollution into the air. Open buring of fossil fuels like in the V8 engine with no filters dumps particles into the air. Smoke stacks without filters dumps dust particles into the air. If you live near the freeway you can expect black dust. Your children breath that. The smog is so bad some days there are alerts for people to stay inside.

    It makes no difference what the sceintists say. It’s not even a debate. It’s just common sense.

    For some reason I have yet to understand why people defend oil companies. People defend coal burning. Then we had the nuclear energy craze that has proved to be a disaster, literally.

    Now when it comes to putting solar panels up, or wind mills, you’re just a stupid hippie. What I would like to see is the cost benefits of sixty years of government expense for nuclear energy, compared to what we would have gotten if that money was spent on solar panel research, and storage battery technology.

    No matter what, we will have to have alternative energy resources.

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  21. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 419:

    RE: pfft @ 403

    While you were gone another giat hole was blown in AGW theory. Looks like the data doesn’t support the theory:

    “NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

    And another- don’t have the link handy, but the guy who did the polar bear stories was found a fraud and fired or something. Time to find a new religion.

    it’s not religion it’s science.

    “While you were gone another giat hole was blown in AGW theory.”

    oh really? just like when the hacked emails proved climate change was a hoax? how did that work out? you never posted. why is that? they were all cleared!

    Probe clears scientists in ‘Climategate’
    http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2010-07-07-climategate-investigation_N.htm

    yeah I guess climate change has been disproven.

    NOAA: 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record
    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110112_globalstats.html

    As for you article “debunking” climate change…it’s about the well-known climate denier roy spencer. Your article is written by the Heartland Institute, well-known right-wing denier organziation. it’s already been debunked.

    Climate Change Debunked? Not So Fast
    http://www.livescience.com/15293-climate-change-cloud-cover.htm

    next!

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  22. pfft

    another link if someone wants it.

    Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedback
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/07/misdiagnosis-of-surface-temperature-feedback/

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  23. Spherical

    RE: Scotsman @ 419 – Just a little perspective on the credibility of the authors of the “study”:

    “Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.”

    That’s good ‘ol Roy Spencer, creationist and fellow at the ExxonMobil funded Heartland Institute, a libertarian think tank and propaganda machine whose past endeavors include working with Philip Morris to question the science linking second hand smoke and cancer. This guy is the official climatologist of the Rush Limbaugh Show, so that should give you an idea of what kind of objectivity he brings to the table.

    Everything this guy writes on global warming, just like everything the Heartland Institute puts out, follows the same trajectory.

    First, it gets published in a marginal journal with low standards so they can say it’s “peer reviewed.”

    Second, it hits the right wing blogs, where conservatives accept it uncritically and rejoice because it tells them what they want to hear.

    Third, actual scientists read it and shred the faulty logic, poor assumptions, and abysmal methodology.

    Fourth, it hits the the left wing blogs, who take the opportunity to gloat a little and trash the study’s authors and all the uncritical right wing blogs.

    Fifth, the right wing websites, who would never be caught dead reading a hostile left wing website and who would never read anything written by actual scientists (who they consider to either be part of the “liberal elite” or part of an ill-defined conspiracy), never hear about what poor “science” the study they’re celebrating actually is, and go right on believing that their anti-global warming position is so obviously correct that everyone else must either be fools or conspirators.

    I believe the link pfft posted is step three. I saw a bit of step four out there yesterday. Step five is clearly already under way.

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  24. pfft

    well done spherical.

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  25. David Losh

    RE: Spherical @ 423

    Let me clarify one thing about conservatives. Rush Limbaugh is a communist. Shaun Hannity is a lobbyist, and Glenn Beck is a snake oil sales man.

    No right thinking conservative gives any of those hucksters a second tought.

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  26. pfft

    looks like austerity is coming to america.

    how is that working for Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Britain?

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  27. Blurtman

    RE: pfft @ 426 – You’re going to have to define “austerity.”

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  28. David Losh

    RE: pfft @ 426

    You don’t understand the austerity. Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Britain all gave up currency for the Euro. To start, the Euro was eighty cents to the dollar, now it’s $1.43.

    I tried to put the link, but it’s hinky. The volatility of the currency allowed Europeans, you know, the ones with the good jobs, to come in a buy up, or “invest” in those countries.

    The central Euro country of Germany has pulled in the financing that gave the illusion of prosperity so the countries you mentioned now have to find real currency to pay bills.

    For the United States it’s no big deal. The Republican whiners are about to lose the funding they rely on to keep lobbyists happy. We just need to cut military spending, health care insurance give aways, and stop propping up oil company profits. We are awash in cash money, dollars, that can be traded globally.

    So austerity won’t work for Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Britain. They need to cut ties with Germany, default, and go back to the currencies they abandoned.

    Yeah, I know England still has the Pound, but it was seriously diluted with the Euro nonsense.

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  29. whatsmyname

    As President Chamberlain returns from the Reichspieker’s office having achieved change in our time, Ritholtz reminds that we still have bigger systemic problems that still somehow get no attention (in Congress, at least).

    http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/X38iROK6ldY/

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