By The Tim on July 15, 2011
Here is your open thread for the weekend beginning Friday July 15th, 2011. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.
Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!
Posted in Open Thread | Tagged open_thread
Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.
Let’s Take a Look at Recent Jobs Losses in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Area Per BLS Data
As you can see from the extracted BLS data, we’ve shed 16,200 from the Civilian Labor Force totals since the beginning of the year. Simultaneously, there’s only a 2400 drop in employment numbers though through May 2011 data too. This clearly means the labor force is shrinking about seven times faster than the number employed [IMO, this means we're job sharing "P/T and Temporary" more for larger/rosy employment numbers, you got a better reason???? Like maybe the BLS terms "labor force" and "number employed" have nothing to do with each other?????]. In addition, unemployment [and these workers drop off the charts with terminated UE benefits] dropped from 9.2 to 8.5%. In the news today, they reported a mere 18,000 jobs added. Looks like our local real estate neighborhoods went the opposite direction the last year, losing 17,000 from the Civilian Labor Force.
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Data Series Back
Data Jan
2011 Feb
2011 Mar
2011 Apr
2011 May
2011 June
2011
Labor Force Data
Civilian Labor Force (1)
1,878.0 1,887.2 1,879.9 1,851.8 (P) 1,861.8
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.wa_seattle_msa.htm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/July-consumer-sentiment-worst-rb-109875525.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: softwarengineer @ 1 –
My Own Blog Above Got Me Re-analyzing the Jan-May 2011 BLS Data
The difference between the labor force and the employment was unemployed. That clearly means currently employed workers can work more than one job, but it gets counted as two or more. I’ve heard this was true before, but the data clarifies/justifies the allegation.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Those figures show the unemployment numbers dropped sharply in just one month from March to April. I can’t believe it was all people dropping off the unemployment roles in just one month. Its not likely they would all drop off the unemployment roles all at once.They are at least suspect figures. I can’t think of anything that would cause that and I don’t see it was a correction adjustment as I see no notation. Maybe they were planning on being raptured in May?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Pegasus @ 3 –
I Agree Pegasus
The BLS data is extremely difficult to comprehend for statistical sense. I would conclude one caveat, downward trends in unemployment insurance [if even real as you alleged] propping up the economy with a shrinking labor force supporting our state’s billions in debt [and growing] is not rosy good news….just the opposite.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Hey gang,
Is it necessary to have a termite inspection in Seattle? It is in Ohio. If we use a very good home inspector would that cover it? The home does not have wood to earth contact and is in very good condition.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By jrc @ 5:
Here in the Seattle area we inspect for slugs. They have been known to slime an entire house in just one evening. Nasty critters! An infestation of mountain beaver can also be pretty bad but normally you can spot the signs without an inspection.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: jrc @ 5 – Any comprehensive home inspection should include insect damage. You don’t need wood-to-earth contact either, the little buggers will build mud tubes on the surface of the stem wall in order to get from the ground up to the yummy-tasting wood.
And carpenter ants can smell wet wood from yards away – if your bathroom wall has water in it from a leaky shower enclosure, they will find it!
Slugs? They will decimate your plants, so keep a salt shaker handy (or put containers of beer out for them).
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: redmondjp @ 7 –
Slugs. My record so far is 260 in one night, about 600 within a 3 day period. Gotta protect them dahlias!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Ah, slug hunting. As a kid, there were times at my grandma’s house when she would turn me and the neighbor kids loose on her property to kill slugs. Salt works, but for 8-year-old boys there’s nothing more entertaining than using hand shovels and buckets, then throwing the slugs in the road and watching cars run over them. I wish I was still so easily entertained.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By redmondjp @ 7:
Not all home inspectors are licensed to inspect for structural pests.
http://agr.wa.gov/pestfert/pesticides/docs/058SpiReqFactSheet.pdf
That said, termites are not a big issue in most areas around here. There are other pests, however, and often the damage is obvious so a regular inspector would likely notice something is wrong.
There’s also a link within that link that says what a regular home inspector can do.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: WillyNilly @ 8 –
Get chickens!! it’s like caviar for them.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Cheap South @ 11:
Maybe we could start a new food craze for people which would then drive up PNW incomes and property values! :-D
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Cheap South @ 11 –
I hear once you get chickens then the rats and mice come. Then i guess I will have to get a
cat, but then the racoons and bobcats will get the cat, so then I will have to get more guns. PNW living sure is fun!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
My slugs aren’t hurting anyone, just trying to eek out a living like everything else. No need to kill them. Certainly no need for chickens. They’d be far worse than slugs. Carpenter ants are what I watch out for.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Warren on Thursday:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/15/elizabeth-warren-foreclosure-investigation_n_899659.html
A top Obama administration official on Thursday questioned the scope of the state and federal investigations into alleged mortgage abuses and “illegal” foreclosures perpetrated by the nation’s largest mortgage companies, marking the first time a senior White House official publicly broke ranks with the administration over the issue and raising fresh questions about the wisdom of the government’s rush to settle with the firms.
Warren on Friday:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/07/elizabeth-warren-out-as-possible-head-of-consumer-financial-protection-bureau.html
President Barack Obama has chosen a candidate other than Elizabeth Warren as director of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, according to a person briefed on the matter.
More decisive action by the Obama administration.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 14 – That comment was perfect with your avatar. :-)
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ChrisM @ 15 – The banksters have been fighting tooth and nail to keep her from becoming the head of the new Consumer Protection Agency. She has been very outspoken about the fraudsters and was believed to be someone to make the financial industry to abide by at least a few laws. Obama once again sells out to the banking cartel to continue to allow no bad deed to go punished.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Pegasus @ 17:
I don’t think I remember a President where the rhetoric was so mis-matched with the actions. About the only place it is even close to matching is Afghanistan policy, but that’s rather similar to Bush’s Iraq policy which he strongly opposed.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: jrc @ 5 –
Here in the State of Washington all you need to be a home inspector is a course in pest infestation. So the home inspectors do know what to look for in terms of termites, but powder post beetles are a bigger problem here in Seattle.
Most of our pest damage is from moisture ants. That is due to water intrusion, and rot, more than anything else.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By David Losh @ 19:
Not sure if you missed my link above, but home inspectors and structural pest inspectors are separate licenses. And I really doubt you can become a home inspector by taking a course to be a pest inspector. ;-) :-D
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Former Ohio Attorney General Picked to Lead Consumer Agency
WASHINGTON — President Obama said Sunday that he would nominate Richard Cordray, the former attorney general of Ohio, to lead the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, passing over Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard Law professor who was the driving force behind the bureau’s creation.
Mr. Cordray came to national attention for his aggressive investigations of mortgage foreclosure practices during his one term as attorney general. He had already joined the watchdog agency, which starts formal operations on July 21, as the head of its enforcement division…..
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/business/former-ohio-attorney-general-picked-to-lead-consumer-agency.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 20 –
look it up.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 20 –
Link to pest inspection licensure:
http://agr.wa.gov/pestfert/pesticides/docs/058SpiReqFactSheet.pdf
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 18 –
Well put. Chicago politics has always been that way, and he is a Chicago politician.
Rick
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Blurtman @ 21 –
I’m going to thank you again for bring up all of this crap about the financial markets, because that is what we are talking about.
My wife is in Peru right now and business there, as an emerging market, is booming. Every body has a credit card. Condos are going up, banks are making loans, the stores are bustling, and the dentist that we use there is increasing prices.
We saw the same thing in Spain over the past decade when reports from Peru were that people were working for a dollar a day.
The crash of the emerging markets, that I think JP Morgan reported last week were the new profit centers for their portfolios, will be, in my opinion, more devastating than what we are seeing today.
This link, this nomination, is just another example of how nothing will be done to protect the American people, and investors. Big Banks will once again be allowed to charge whatever they want, and swindle who ever they want for the sake of profits that boost the Dow.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: ricklind @ 23 –
he already put that up.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
The American People Will Be Protected
From choosing Dem/Rep candidate choices that aren’t hand picked with their campaign contributions to do nothing for the voters.
Rate this comment:
0 
0