Your Regularly Scheduled Redfin/Tableau Mashup

Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.

As promised on Monday, I’d like to post the usual Tableau map of Redfin’s monthly Seattle-area market stats.

Don’t forget that you can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here. Going forward I’ll probably just include both of these maps in the same post.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in May is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

This month’s biggest sales winner in King County was way out in Snoqualmie (98065) (last month’s biggest loser), where sales bumped up from 7 in May to 18 in June. King County’s biggest decline was in NW Seattle / W Shoreline (98177), where sales fell 42% from 24 in May to 14 in June.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in May in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

  • King: 98115 — 55 sales.
  • Snohomish: 98208 — 64 sales.
  • Pierce: 98391 — 77 sales.
  • Thurston: 98501 — 51 sales.
  • Kitsap: 98367 — 34 sales.

Inventory almost turned positive in June, declining month-to-month in 35 King County neighborhoods, flat in 4, and rising in 34. Year-to-year continues to come in worse: Just 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 3 were flat, and the remaining 58 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 59 King County zip codes, and rose in just 12. The median price per square foot was down in 54 zip codes, flat in 1, and up in 17.

Anything stand out to you about the detailed stats this month?

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

21 comments:

  1. 1
    ray pepper says:

    “Anything stand out to you ”

    Absolutely! After careful analyzing (and sticking with Rorschach)my answer is………………..

    Pancreas…….It looks like a Pancreas…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    Scotsman says:

    RE: ray pepper @ 1

    Let’s see- switch to median price, year to year, all the counties around Seattle. Whoa- that’s a lot of blue.

    Looks like acid reflux to me. Gonna need a prescription for “Happy-
    Daze,” taken with alchohol.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    ray pepper says:

    Scotsman there are so many great deals out there its simply amazing!

    http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20110729/ARTICLE/110729503/2055/NEWS?p=1&tc=pg

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  4. 4
    help my buddy says:

    Slightly off topic, but here goes.

    Friend living in Newcastle bought a 2br condo in July of 2008 with a 5/1 ARM on a unit . In his condo neighborhood, there aren’t ANY sales over the last 3 years. Not a single point of data for him to use to understand the market “value” of his unit.

    Yesterday at dinner, he boasted that his unit was recently appraised for $6K UNDER what he owes the bank, which sounds completely insane to me since he put hardly any money down. He boasted about how he put 10K down and floated the rest.

    Given that the area has taken a huge bath (especially condos), I would think his losses would be at least 20-30%, which would mean he is underwater to the tune of 50-75K. Don’t know how that adds up to only being 6K under what he owes with the market in the crapper.

    Without comps on anything to make him understand that he bought at the very top, overpaid substantially, and is now severely underwater, how do I help him understand what he should do? From what he has said, I feel the real estate agents and people he has been working with are disingenuous and parasitic in that they warned him about doing anything but paying. I think they would rather him SELL so they can make commission.

    I told him he should put his place on the market and see if he gets any offers. He refuses, saying he’d rather wait a bit.

    I have told him time and time again (even in 2010) that his best option would be strategic default, but he has some kind of pride about his credit score and has told me he would never default. I don’t think he wants to acknowledge he made a terrible mistake and has been pissing $~2800 a month in mortgage/PMI into a unit that is worth far less.

    He is acting like an ostrich with his head in the sand and thinks “everything will bounce back” in the next year before his ARM resets to the higher rate.

    I know he is f*&ked, but he pretends he isn’t…He drives a ridiculously expensive car (lease) that he’d never be able to pay for in cash for show and status so you can see where his priorities are…

    What should I do? Let him die a slow miserable financial death, or try a different approach / strategy that will open his eyes?

    Pointed him here to this blog, but he doesn’t want to face the music.

    Sincerely,
    A concerned friend

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  5. 5
    Scotsman says:

    RE: help my buddy @ 4

    $2800 a month for a condo in Newcastle?

    You can’t fix stupid. Don’t lend him any money when he asks for it.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    ray pepper says:

    RE: help my buddy @ 4

    You can’t help people who have blinders on and have no interest in helping themselves…but…..

    Play this old video for your friend and ask him which person is the idiot? Which person can’t spit out the truth? Which person is the liar? Which person tells the truth?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZOg1YPZSjk&feature=related

    Good Luck!

    BTW when your friend begins to see the light give him this vid:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJiR0lu99_I&playnext=1&list=PL3E8A26D73F8ADC6A

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  7. 7

    A gentleman and a scholar! As ever, thanks for sharing all your data Tim!
    Conor

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  8. 8
    Drone says:

    RE: help my buddy @ 4 – A wise man learns from his mistakes. A wiser man learns from others’ mistakes. A fool never learns.

    Your friend has already shown he’s not going to learn from your words. The only remaining question is whether he’ll learn from experience. Your job now is to be his friend, listen sympathetically when his life crumbles, and be there to offer good advice when he’s ready to hear it and rebuild. Prepare your relationship so that he’ll listen to you on that day.

    But as Scotsman said, NEVER loan him money. Life is a harsh teacher; don’t get in the way of the lesson.

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  9. 9
    help my buddy says:

    Thanks for the words everyone. I did some analysis of the other Newcastle condos on the market to arrive at a $ per sq ft that I then matched to an equivalent unit to show how much of a bath he is going to take.

    This is my last attempt at helping him…If he does not want the analysis or tells me one more time that “my sister’s best friend is a realtor, she knows all about the market” then I’m going to let the downward spiral continue.

    I have never loaned him money and I never will. One thing my parents taught me was that life is tough and sacrifices must be made…Friends that loan other friends money end up regretting it 100% of the time.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10
    Blurtman says:

    Yet another corporate deadbeat strategically defaults:

    Foreclosed 23-Story, 475,789 Sq. Ft. KeyBank Center Auctioned Off for $7.15M; Handing Over the Keys, Cleveland Style

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/07/foreclosed-475789-sq-ft-keybank-center.html

    Behringer-Harvard does not exhibit the “can do” attitude. I think Harvard should sue them for trademark infringement.

    http://www.behringerharvard.com/about-us/management-team.aspx

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  11. 11

    By Scotsman @ 5:

    RE: help my buddy @ 4

    $2800 a month for a condo in Newcastle?

    You can’t fix stupid. Don’t lend him any money when he asks for it.

    I would agree with the second point in almost any circumstances, but as to the first point keep in mind he’s on a 5/1 Arm from 2008. Hard to tell from that how much he would actually owe, because his interest rate could be almost anything!
    (Well, anything 12% or less.)

    BTW, I just did a search for condos in Newcastle, and most of the sales in that city are under $205k, but one unit recently sold for $385k in Primrose.

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  12. 12
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11

    Kary- focus! It doesn’t matter how he got there. Would you pay $2800 a month to live in a 2 bedroom in Newcastle?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. 13

    By Scotsman @ 12:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11

    Kary- focus! It doesn’t matter how he got there. Would you pay $2800 a month to live in a 2 bedroom in Newcastle?

    I would never get an ARM, because I was an adult during the late 70s, early 80s and remember what can happen to interest rates.

    But to answer your question, it would have to be a golly nice condo! ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    Jonness says:

    By help my buddy @ 4:

    What should I do? Let him die a slow miserable financial death, or try a different approach / strategy that will open his eyes?

    Your friend, along with millions of other fools, has leveraged into a rapidly depreciating asset class. He needs to suffer till he hits bottom. The faster it occurs, the better off he’ll be, so don’t try to prop him up. The best thing you can do for him is set a good example. Eventually, he will learn from your example, file bankruptcy, and turn his life around for the long term. In short, he’ll have to learn the consequences of making bad decisions before he finds the level of motivation required to make good ones.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. 15
    Jonness says:

    By Scotsman @ 5:

    RE: help my buddy @ 4

    $2800 a month for a condo in Newcastle?

    “The economy expanded by a wan 1.3% in the quarter, following a revised 0.4% in the first quarter, and another downward revision in last year’s final quarter to 2.3%. This means that for nine months the economy has averaged growth of less than 1.5%, which is barely treading water. At this growth rate a single major shock—such as a European meltdown, or a Chinese slowdown—could tip the U.S. back into recession.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904888304576476174101683168.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    This is bad. Anybody who buys a house in this environment either has very big basketballs at home in their garage, or they are oblivious to what’s occurring.

    You can’t warn anybody because people think nothing bad can ever happen to them because they are them. It’s an egocentric philosophy that leads people into bankruptcy.

    I feel so fortunate for having had the privilege of experiencing this economic downturn. It’s been such a wonderful teacher to me and represents one of the true highlights of my existence.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. 16
    2kt says:

    RE: Jonness @ 14

    Nelly, your posts are always such a blessing.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17
    2kt says:

    RE: Jonness @ 15

    What a perl. If this is “highlights of your existence”, you must have a truly charming life.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. 18
    whatsmyname says:

    withdrawn by the poster

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. 19
    Jonness says:

    By 2kt @ 17:

    RE: Jonness @ 15

    What a perl. If this is “highlights of your existence”, you must have a truly charming life.

    “Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocrities. The latter cannot understand it when a man does not thoughtlessly submit to hereditary prejudices but honestly and courageously uses his intelligence.” Albert Einstein

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  20. 20
    2kt says:

    RE: Jonness @ 19

    Another doze of narcissism in bold letters.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. 21
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Jonness @ 19
    Thank you for your honest and courageous posts. I hope you never again experience the violence of post 17.

    One thing has got my curiosity, though. For a truly great spirit, which is the better existential highlight – Is it the actual suffering of the mediocrities, or is it the privilege of knowing that in this one tiny way you are above them? Or is it the case where they don’t matter at all, so long as you can pick up some good financial tips?

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