Redfin: Summer Not so Hot for Local Real Estate

Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.

Last Friday Redfin released their July market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I did not write this month):

Redfin Capitol Hill Team Lead agent Allie Howard says: “I give the summer of 2011 an “F” for frustration! Sellers are frustrated as prices of comparable homes remain low and many cannot afford to sell at current price levels. Those sellers who must move on are opting to rent their homes until the market recovers. Buyers are frustrated as well due to the lack of available inventory. When something desirable appears on market, they find themselves competing against other buyers for the better homes. It may still be a ‘buyer’s market,’ but you have to be fast to reel in the winners.”

Here’s this month’s sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed July numbers for that region.

Heat Map Color Legend

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code.

In order to roll sales, inventory, and prices all into a single “heat” number, I created a new “heat index” for Redfin, where a market with 6.0 months of supply (end of month inventory / one-month closed sales) and +5.0% year-over-year appreciation in the median price per square foot translates to an index value of 75. For the full details, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

Also included in the Redfin post is the “top 5 hottest neighborhoods.” The list will probably look familiar: Magnolia, Ballard, Northwest Seattle, Queen Anne, and Northeast Seattle.

Again, I’ll probably postthe usual Tableau map later this week. For now though, enjoy the Google map.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

24 comments:

  1. 1
    Dirty_Renter says:

    I see Bainbridge Island is blue, no pun intended. Is it a nice place to live? What do you Puget Sound lifers have to say about that joint? My lease ends this spring…….

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  2. 2
    3rd Generation says:

    Keyboard Commando 101 LOL:

    “In order to roll sales, inventory, and prices all into a single “heat” number, I created a new “heat index” for Redfin, where a market with 6.0 months of supply (end of month inventory / one-month closed sales) and +5.0% year-over-year appreciation in the median price per square foot translates to an index value of 75. For the full details, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.”

    Bwa ha ha The Henny Youngmen school at work… Cymbal shot . . .

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  3. 3

    By Dirty_Renter @ 1:

    I see Bainbridge Island is blue, no pun intended. Is it a nice place to live? What do you Puget Sound lifers have to say about that joint? My lease ends this spring…….

    If you work in downtown Seattle, there would be no better place to live than Bainbridge Island (unless there’s a ferry strike).

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: Dirty_Renter @ 1

    NEVER make yourself a SLAVE to the Ferry System. Have you seen their rates lately? Good God!

    If you cannot live in the 98332 or the 98335 and have to work in Seattle then there is no better bang for your buck (and location) then the 98062.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 4 – You would want to be a walk on. That’s why I mentioned working in downtown Seattle–so you could walk off the Seattle side to work.

    I’m not sure what the walk on rate is these days, but I suspect it’s equal to about 1/2 hour of parking downtown.

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  6. 6
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5

    Even walk-on forget it. Smells like crap on those ferrys and I refuse to even get outta my car.

    On the subject of crap….Kary, completely off the subject but just tell me true or false.. Is it true you have not taken a good dump in 10 years?

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  7. 7

    Bainbridge is a very nice place, but it’s become a little too fancy schmancy over the last ten years or so. Like the old Yogi Berra line ” Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too popular”
    There’s a restaurant there called ” The Four Swallows”. I think it refers to their portion sizes.
    But yeah, if one could find a reasonably priced place to live either within walking distance of the ferry dock or a quick bus ride away, why not?
    All in all though, I prefer Poulsbo. has a little more character.

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  8. 8
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 7:

    I prefer Poulsbo. has a little more character.

    And an RV dealership.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9
    MichaelB says:

    By Ray Pepper @ 6:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5

    On the subject of crap….Kary, completely off the subject but just tell me true or false.. Is it true you have not taken a good dump in 10 years?

    Ray, that’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard!
    Can’t you tell by the picture that he’s taking one right now.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10

    RE: MichaelB @ 9 – At least Kevin Troll has the courtesy of categorizing himself in his name. Maybe you could become Michael Troll?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    Haybaler says:

    Is it just me on my computer?

    Except for the Yellow, Gold and the White. It appears that the colors used in the Legend are not the same as the colors on the Heat Map.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    One Eyed Man says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 7

    Coffee and a pastry dripping with caramel from Sluys’ Bakery as the sun comes up, and breakfast or lunch at Sheila’s overlooking the marina. What’s not to like? I put on 10 lbs and blew out my blood sugars just thinking about it.

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  13. 13
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: MichaelB @ 9

    The reason I asked was over at RCG many reasons were given as to why Kary may not like Ardell. The only one I remembered was the 10 year dump thing and it had me laughing.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    Dirty_Renter says:

    Thanks, Kary, Ray & Ira. It sounds like there’s not too much bad press about Bainbridge. I like Fox Island/Gig Harbor too, but that’s a harder sell to ‘she who must be obeyed’.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. 15
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 8 – By Ira Sacharoff @ 7:

    I prefer Poulsbo. has a little more character.
    And an RV dealership.

    Um, you mean Poulsbo RV? The dealership that closed a few years back?

    And just announced yesterday is that the Hern family is closing Courtesy Ford which is just down the street from the empty RV sales lot. That is the last remaining auto dealer on that strip of Viking Avenue, since Courtesy Chevrolet closed a few years back as well. The city coffers are the worse off, with hundreds of thousands of dollars per year of (permanently?) lost tax revenues from just this one “ugly” strip of road.

    And (snork), the mayor wants to convert that strip to mixed-use retail with condos on top! You missed the bus on that one by a few years, Ms. Mayor! It’s so sad that one can only laugh . . .

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  16. 16

    By redmondjp @ 15:

    Courtesy Ford which is just down the street from the empty RV sales lot. That is the last remaining auto dealer on that strip of Viking Avenue, since Courtesy Chevrolet closed a few years back as well..

    When I was getting the loan to buy my 89 Ranger, the loan officer laughed at the name “Prestige Ford.”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17
    ARDELL says:

    How can 98103 with only 1.8 months of supply and 38 sales be “cool” and 98199 with 4.4 months of supply and 17 sales be “warm”?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. 18
    MichaelB says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    Kary – you’re the king of the trolls. You owe Ardell an apology. Very unprofessional.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. 19
    Cheap South says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 15

    What? No more Poulsbo RV???!!!! I like Poulsbo too. I took the ferry this summer from Seattle to Bainbridge Island. I paid $34 with my wife and two minors in the back seat. Driver only, it would have been $14, and if I recall correctly, walk on was $7.

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  20. 20
    redmondjp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 16:

    By redmondjp @ 15:
    Courtesy Ford which is just down the street from the empty RV sales lot. That is the last remaining auto dealer on that strip of Viking Avenue, since Courtesy Chevrolet closed a few years back as well..

    When I was getting the loan to buy my 89 Ranger, the loan officer laughed at the name “Prestige Ford.”

    Well, judging from some of the comments posted at the Kitsap Sun website, a similar situation may have existed there as well . . . (warning: you have to wade through all of the Bush vs. Obama dreck to find the tasty nuggets in the comments)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. 21
    ivan says:

    RE: Dirty_Renter @ 1

    The real estate market there has tanked. There was a lot of new construction, retirees, and speculative real estate types who lived off the self reinforcing feedback loop. I have wondered what the exact effect of losing all those Wamu jobs was on the market out there. I’m guessing that the real bargains are still several years away. There are a lot of decent looking rentals on Craigslist.

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  22. 22

    By MichaelB @ 18:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    Kary – you’re the king of the trolls. You owe Ardell an apology. Very unprofessional.

    I only treated Ardell the same way she treated me. If you weren’t biased, or if you followed it, you’d realize that. No way would I ever apologize to Ardell for being the recipient of her uncalled for insults. She should just be thankful I held back.

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  23. 23
    ricklind says:

    By Ray Pepper @ 4:

    RE: Dirty_Renter @ 1

    NEVER make yourself a SLAVE to the Ferry System. Have you seen their rates lately? Good God!

    If you cannot live in the 98332 or the 98335 and have to work in Seattle then there is no better bang for your buck (and location) then the 98062.

    Checkin’ in from the chillin’ 98101.

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  24. 24

    […] Raha was right, then, to worry about nothing going wrong. He was also correct about Boeing ramping up production, banks remaining under stress to recapitalize under more stringent FDIC regulation, and real estate not bouncing back until at least mid-2011. The gold bubble has yet to pop, interest rates have yet to rise (though any deflationary spiral has been mild), and delayed foreclosures are still depressing market values. […]

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