About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

39 comments:

  1. 1

    Much of the Gold Hoarding is Done With Collateral Loans Against Equity, Like Their Businesses

    Then, when the lease/mortgage payments come due with far less sales’ profits, the sell off of their gold is mandatory to keep their business afloat.

    It reminds me of margin buying before the Great Depression stock market crash.

    Real estate is more stable today than gold, when the investor is under-water, they can’t just sell the gold….hades, they can’t sell a thing without paying down their own real estate loss with CASH or sign a short sale contract with the devil.

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  2. 2
    Feedback says:

    Housing creates jobs. (For every two homes sold, one job is created.) Gold does not. Therefore, housing is a better investment for American society than is gold. Housing represents an optimistic investment in the power of community. Gold represents a pessimistic investment in the collapse of the American monetary system, which between you and me, won’t be allowed to happen.

    Paranoid conspiracy theorists sure are an easy group to monetise though, eh Tim?

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  3. 3
    Reality always hurts says:

    2. Feedback
    August 28, 2011 at 10:28 am So many unwashed and ill-informed, so little time.

    “Housing creates jobs. (For every two homes sold, one job is created.) Gold does not. Therefore, housing is a better investment for American society than is gold.”

    Thank you David Lereah with (dis) Honorable mention to Funny Yunny, propogandists of the NAR. WE know how your predictions have worked out in the past. . .

    “Gold represents a pessimistic investment in the collapse of the American monetary system, which between you and me, won’t be allowed to happen.”

    True statement about Gold.

    As to the fractional Federal Reserve private cartel monetary system, just between you, me and the entire world, the collapse is/has already happened and continues to gring on. Bought groceries or fuel lately? How’s your retirement fund doing? How is your utility bill coming along? Had any long vacatoins abroad? How’s that exchange rate strike you? Do you smile when you pay your property taxes (assuming you own any real estate)? Paid a vehicle license fee lately?

    Please, No Sermons. Go sell your bullsh * t to someone stupid and gullible enough to believe that nonsense., like 90+% of the ‘American’ sheeple, many of them 1 paycheck away from destitution ans solidly formerly middle class, now sleeping under a bridge near you while watching a sports show.

    The only thing missing is unrest, which sadly will come in time as well.

    Maybe you can talk that hungry looter holding a knife to you kids throat into buying a house?

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  4. 4
    David Losh says:

    If you buy well, the rental income can be out strip your return on gold.

    You are buying today when property is depressed, and gold is prized.

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  5. 5
    David Losh says:

    RE: Reality always hurts @ 3

    In 1974 a guy gave me the gift of a shovel. It cost about $5 at the time and would return it’s investment in an hour of use.

    The reality is that there is plenty to do, and plenty of money.

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  6. 6
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Feedback @ 2

    ” the collapse of the American monetary system, which between you and me, won’t be allowed to happen.”

    Sorry, it’s already been going on for years. It’s not a collapse, per se, but a slow weakening of the currency, a reduction of our manufacturing potential, an increasing dependency on other countries for energy and high tech components, an expansion of the nonproductive elements in society, etc.

    While housing has been a big part of the economy in the past, roughly 6% of GDP (about the same as the military) it isn’t enough by itself to make or break us. And while gold purchases/speculation don’t add any real value to the economy they at least give some people a way to hold onto what wealth they may still have, if only until it too collapses. After all, what is the real utility value of gold, aside from it’s role as the new fiat currency of choice?

    You want to be depressed? Read up on what percentage of the cutting edge technology we actually manufacture (not design) here in the U.S. We couldn’t mass produce cutting edge tech if our lives depended on it. We can’t make the screens, the connectors, many of the chips, etc. Let’s focus on those, not housing. After all, we already have tens of millions of excess housing units, sitting vacant. We don’t need more- it’s malinvstment at this time.

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  7. 7
    fubarrio says:

    totally dependent on your time frame…so, ‘everyone’ is right.

    also, in most cases, gold should classically be defined as a ‘speculation’ — you’re buying at a given price hoping to sell it to someone else for a higher price sometime in the future.

    real estate has the potential to create income (and expenses!), and if you’re operating as a landlord could more accurately be defined as an investment.

    coincidentally, a lot of people during the bubble were ‘speculating’ in real estate and calling it ‘investment’ — we see how that worked out.

    although gold has moved to the forefront of our consciousness (a bad thing for specs entering new positions), for the next 12-36 months, i’d be more willing to ‘speculate’ in gold than real estate because the holding/carrying/transaction costs are much lower and there is a liquid/immediate and published market for it (including the bids). a given piece of real estate for sale only publishes the offers….pretty hard for me to determine the real demand.

    …oh yeah, and if you’re initially ‘wrong’ on the direction it’s a lot easier to flip and go short :-)

    fubarrio

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  8. 8

    RE: Feedback @ 2
    Housing produces jobs, and gold does not, but when one talks about investment, i think the generally accepted definition is which brings financial appreciation. If you want to invest in society, build schools and factories, build parks, build libraries. None of those will produce profit, but if you’ve got billions sitting around, it would do some good.
    I bought a gold stock a few years ago ( all they do is buy and sell gold, not mine it, ticker GLD) and it’s done much better than I expected. But it’s hard to time stuff like that. I was lucky, not smart. It seems that gold is pretty expensive right now, but it also seems to do well in times of turmoil., so who knows?
    Housing produces jobs, but there needs to be a demand for those houses to keep those jobs sustainable. There are still housing developments within 20 miles or so of Bellevue or Seattle built within the last 3 or 4 years where most of the homes still sit empty. There just isn’t enough income or jobs around to fill the 500,000+ dollar homes in these developments, and by the time the economy turns around, the granite and stainless and engineered wood are going to be so yesterday.
    But some of the low end stuff is now so cheap that if you rented it out,the rents will more than cover the mortgage, taxes, insurance, etc. And there are tax rewards for being a landlord, but it’s not an easy road to hoe, and not without risk.
    Gold might be a good investment in the very near term, real estate might be a good investment in the very long term, but neither strikes me as a good investment choice overall.

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  9. 9
    Pete says:

    If you can buy a rental and get greater than 20% ROI then you should invest there (I’m looking). Gold and silver have had average annual returns of over 20% for years. There is nothing to indicate the trend has changed. As for the social implications of an investment; whatever investment makes me and my family more financially secure in the long run is the best social investment I can make.

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  10. 10
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Pete @ 9

    Re “social implications”, there is from time to time a lot of pressure on even the largest fund investors to be aware of social implication. The most notable one I remember was many years ago with regard to South Africa.

    It is fairly recent in the “me” society that investment has become only about the return one will get from the investment. Historically what one was investing IN has been just as important as what one will get in return.

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  11. 11
    Dan says:

    People need houses. People don’t need gold.

    Sure, gold has gone up in value. At one time, tulip prices were pretty high in Holland.

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  12. 12

    By Dan @ 11:

    Sure, gold has gone up in value. At one time, tulip prices were pretty high in Holland.

    There’s a bit of a difference there, although I would agree that a bit of buyer mania is involved with both. The supply of tulips is not nearly as limited as that of gold.

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  13. 13
    Real World Express says:

    I was reading that in Venezuela they have a mine, which is currently closed, where people have found nuggets on the ground as large as 2 pounds…at any time the gold hoarding countries such as China could unleash a treasure to try and pay their debts.

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  14. 14
    Pete says:

    RE: Dan @ 11

    People don’t need gold? That’s a good one, that’s the same as saying people don’t need money, because gold is money. It’s just a different denomination.

    The number speak much more than the oft quoted cliches quoted by those who continue to miss the boat.

    Even after falling %20+ from $50 silver is still up %100 in the last 12 months.
    Dollars? stocks? not so much.

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  15. 15
    Pete says:

    RE: ARDELL @ 10

    To clarify, my social implications comment was limited to the context of the arguments, such as investing in a home, factory, or gold and silver. I would not consider investing in something that does not promote the general welfare of society. I do have children that I want to grow up here.

    In 2003 I bought silver for $5/oz. and sold some recently and used it for the down payment on a house. If I had put it in the bank or invested it in stocks, as is the general consensus, I would not have been in the position to purchase the house.

    There seems to be an assumption that gold is unneeded, barbaric, or an anomaly. Those assumptions are no more valid than the idea that real estate always goes up.

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  16. 16
    hoary says:

    I said better as there was no stipulations on time horizon.

    Both are commodities thusly subject to supply and demand. In my view, we have an oversupply of housing and a lack of demand with no fundamentals indicating a return to previous levels anytime soon. Gold is in demand because it is a store of value in a fearful world of negative real interest rates and runaway currency depreciation.

    Gold is also more liquid than real estate (assuming a SF home), I could easily find a buyer for the gold in the PM markets but it would not be so easy with a home.

    Tim, are you becoming a gold bug?

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  17. 17
    doug says:

    RE: Pete @ 14

    Past results not an indicator of future performance, etc.

    I’m a gold sceptic. I personally wouldn’t buy an ounce of gold for $1800. It’s a shiny, scarce metal. People like it, and it has a few industrial applications. All things scarce are shooting through the roof. Art sales are really taking off. All these things will crash if the economy gets better… not just the U.S. economy, but the world economy.

    There’s probably some good money to be made in gold still. But the only way to believe that it keeps its current value is if you think the world economy is really, truly and irrevocably broken. I don’t buy that.

    That said, I wouldn’t buy a house as an investment either unless one has the time and patience to be a landlord. If so, it’s quite a good investment, IMO. I bought a house to live in, and am thoroughly happy with my purchase, though the price could drop if interest rates go up.

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  18. 18

    By Dan @ 11:

    People need houses. People don’t need gold.

    Sure, gold has gone up in value. At one time, tulip prices were pretty high in Holland.

    People need to live somewhere, people need houses, but they don’t need to OWN houses.

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  19. 19
    Pete says:

    RE: doug @ 17

    I don’t invest in PMs because I think the world has to end or the economy has to colapse to make them go up. I do invest in PM because they have a proven track record of beating the inflation rate for the last 10 years. It has a so far unbrokent bull market trend which has had some momentary spikes but overall is in a moderate upward trend. Every bull market is the same, you buy on the dips, not on the highs.

    I believe there is plenty more inflation coming because of the excessive debts and obligations governments and banks have made. It is politically easier for then to inflate them away than to admit that they overpromised and default on them.

    I dont’ think the average person realizes the extent of the government obligations we are talking about. Net present value is near $200Trillion dollars just for the US governement. They have openly expressed their willingness to print more money and inflate it away. How else can you hedge against that? A good solid business is one, PMs are another, housing(?), maybe.

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  20. 20
    doug says:

    RE: Pete @ 19

    I don’t disagree with anything you said except this: “overall is in a moderate upward trend.”

    A static asset sextupling in value in 10 years is not a moderate upward trend. It is an unsustainable bubble. There is an upper limit of what most people will pay for gold, whether it’s scarce or not.

    We don’t have anywhere close to the inflation required to make sextupling in value in 10 years make sense. It’s a speculative craze, and it will crash. Maybe in a year. Maybe more.

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  21. 21
    microsofties says:

    I’m really surprised at the lack of economic savvy present in the “arguments” against gold. Durrr, bubble. Durrr, tulips. Durrr, housing creates jobs. Durrr, there will come an upper limit for what people will pay.

    Does anyone remember how STUPID people were during the housing run up, including some of you on this very thread that bought close to the peak? A house is a much larger commitment and tens of millions of people dropped every dime they owned into that market for fear of being “priced out forever”.

    We are nowhere near that stage of the cycle. All things considered, the upside appreciation potential of gold far outweighs the downside, especially when you compare it to something like a house.

    Nobody is telling you to convert 100% of your cash and savings into gold, but you’d be a fool not to own at least a little bit with the way things are going in Washington and around the globe.

    I’m a buyer of gold until unemployment gets down to 5%.

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  22. 22
    Macro Investor says:

    By microsofties @ 21:

    We are nowhere near that stage of the cycle. All things considered, the upside appreciation potential of gold far outweighs the downside, especially when you compare it to something like a house.

    Awfully arrogant comment with not one fact backing it up. I suppose you wake up every morning and ask your magic 8 ball.

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  23. 23
    doug says:

    RE: microsofties @ 21
    This post is hilarious. You chide people for their groupthink and arrogance. Then make an argument that is nothing but unsubstantiated groupthink and arrogance.

    “Durrr, bubble. Durrr, there will come an upper limit for what people will pay.”
    So, your argument (after a post that recalls how stupid people were for buying expensive houses) is that bubbles don’t exist? And that people will pay an infinite amount for gold? Great arguments, guy.

    Here are my own:

    From 2001 to 2007, median housing prices went up about 50%, an unsustainable bubble, as wages were not rising.

    From 2001 to present, gold has gone up about 640%. This is completely logical, and due to economic fundamentals, I’m sure!

    The last time gold spiked like this was during the hyperinflation of the late 70’s, – early 80’s which was MUCH worse than it is today. What happened after inflation subsided? (subsided to levels much lower than today, I might add) Gold freaking CRASHED.

    China and our banks and Goldline are having a fine old time, and when they finally decide to start selling their gold, a lot of investors who were motivated by fear and were SURE $2000/oz was a good price for gold will bemoan that NO ONE told them gold could or would go down. Gold goes down all the time. But keep on riding that bubble!

    As a final note, websites that cater to goldbugs are one of the most perfect and wonderful examples of begging the question (the real, Aristotelian, meaning of begging the question) that I have ever seen. They begin their argument by assuming that gold has a fixed value; that it is not subject to the vagaries of supply and demand; that GOLD is not varying wildly in value, everything ELSE is varying in value AROUND gold! It would be gorgeous satire if it weren’t bilking people out of their savings.

    And for the record, I bought my house quite cheaply, at a price that was easily affordable to me, about 5 months ago. And I bought a tungsten wedding ring because I refuse to pay inflated prices for gold, even when it is utile to me.

    So there’s your economic savvy for the day.

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  24. 24
    hoary says:

    By doug @ 23:

    So there’s your economic savvy for the day.

    Gold is a hedge against the self-enriching monetary policies of the US banking cabal. If you put confidence in the strength of US dollar, then God help you.

    10 year dollar chart:
    http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2011/DXY03-11.gif

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  25. 25
    doug says:

    RE: hoary @ 24

    Do you think, after reading my post, that I don’t know what gold’s traditional role has been? Is that your whole argument, that gold has funcitoned as a hedge? Gold also functions as what it is, a commodity, which is subject to supply and demand. Right now there’s a ton of demand based on economic uncertainty, so it’s way overpriced.

    How much do you expect the value of the dollar to drop by? Are you contending a dollar is worth half as much as it was two years ago? A quarter of what it was 6 years ago?

    It seems to me that a buyer’s frenzy for gold is a much more plausible explanation for this.

    Buy low. Sell high.

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  26. 26
    B&W Nikes says:

    It really depends on what you are looking at. Gold’s meteoric rise is less shocking compared to some other goods and services people value. I think it reflects ETF mania and a time of class conscious conspicuous consumption equal to any international banking phenomenon.The current gold price seems really irrational to me, but so does sticker price on a Maserati.

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  27. 27
    hoary says:

    By doug @ 25:

    Do you think, after reading my post, that I don’t know what gold’s traditional role has been?

    Yes. After reading your post I don’t think you much of anything. You compare the US housing bubble to the global demand for gold. (???)

    Is that your whole argument, that gold has funcitoned as a hedge?

    No, it is not my whole argument. I try to make one or two concise points on blogs like these because spewing uninformed blather no one reads isn’t a productive use of time.

    Those of us who have been accumulating for the last decade do not care what the price is in dollars, francs, yen or euros. We won’t be exchanging our metal for paper when its trend is toward oblivion with little potential upside.

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  28. 28
    doug says:

    RE: hoary @ 27

    This is an argument based on emotion. I’m spewing uninformed blather? Which points do you disagree with? Why do you disagree with them?

    You argue gold is a hedge. I agree! It’s also increasing in value FAR FAR faster than the U.S. dollar is being devalued. Since when does a hedge do that? When fear outstrips reality, and a speculative bubble emerges as a result. I’ve given my numbers and reasons.

    Basing your belief on blind faith, calling others who disagree ignorant. Stating opinions as facts without quantification or backup… This is a bubble mentality.

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  29. 29
    microsofties says:

    By doug @ 23:

    RE: microsofties @ 21
    This post is hilarious. You chide people for their groupthink and arrogance. Then make an argument that is nothing but unsubstantiated groupthink and arrogance. .

    I do chide people for their groupthink and arrogance WRT real estate. There is no arrogance in buying and holding gold. I’ve encountered FAR less people who are willing to brag about their treasure chest full of precious metals than the number of idiots who want to brag about their house.

    Do you understand any of the fundamentals present in the gold market? Let me take you to school with some simple math that even you might be able to comprehend…Search “officially reported gold holdings” by country and you get roughly ~1.4Boz of gold distributed in “vaults”. Governments hold more gold than anyone, so let’s multiple that by 300% to arrive at all the ozs of gold in the world in the hands of investors and governments. Multiply that number by $1800 an oz and you get a paltry $7.4T as the value of ALL the gold in the world EVER mined/processed/available to consume by any buyer.

    Now watch while I blow your feeble brain away…In 2006, Case-Schiller indices estimate value of all US based residential real estate around $22.4T. Latest estimates show we are around ~32% off peak across the entire US, which is equivalent to a loss of nearly $7.1T.

    During the dotcom bubble, the the market cap of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Index at the end of Q1 in 2000 was around $16T or so. From Q1 in 2000 Q1 to Q1 2003 the index lost roughly 43% of its valuation to bottom out around $9.2T, so the loss was slightly above $7.0T before getting back up to 16T in 2008.

    Remember, those two $7.0 odd trillion in fake wealth created during the housing idiocy and dot com only represented the USA portion of the bubble. Oh wait!! M2 Money Stock as reported by the St. Louis Fed was roughly 50% of current 2011 levels back in 2000 and 75% of current levels in 2008. Do you understand that this means gold is far more valuable tomorrow than it is today?

    The brilliant part about all of this simple math is that both internet stock shares and housing exist in massive quantities, so pumping up these bubbles were easy and they popped very quickly. People had access to both stocks and houses and very little could keep them out of those markets when buying fury began with the “be priced out forever” mantra. Try buying a ton of gold and see who can help you do that. Gold is so decentralized that less than 100 entitities in the world could make a transaction of that size and would be willing to do so.

    You’d need the price of gold to double to reach the same levels of $’s to reach a suitable “bubble” level before the “pop”, however the entities inflating the bubble are the key. China will never sell their gold because it is a hedge against the US dollar, which they would love to see fail as the reserve currency of the world. Gold is a direct bet against the US by every other country in the world. Don’t you understand that?

    The government did not inflate the dotcom bubble, and they did not inflate the residential housing bubble…Individuals did. If you believe that individual demand is causing gold to inflate as it did with “past” bubble, you are truly clueless. It’s central banks and governments racing to accumulate as much as possible. Only when individual demand outpaces central bank and government demand will we be on the verge of a bubble. Not even close yet.

    “Can you name 10 people in your entire network of family and friends who hold any outside of some odd pieces of jewelery? I’d be shocked if you can, and I’m almost certain I have “hoarded” more than all of them combined 10x over.

    Congrats on buying a house 5 months ago…I added another 100oz of gold to my safe about 6 months ago instead of plunking money down for a down payment on a house. Care to congratulate me as well?

    The beautiful part about this is that I guarantee you will be vindicated some day and gold will “plummet” as you blindly predict using history as the your permanent thesis…The only question is whether or it will be from $1,800 to $1,000 or $10,000 to $6,000.

    Good luck.

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  30. 30
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: microsofties @ 29

    “The brilliant part about all of this simple math is that both internet stock shares and housing exist in massive quantities, so pumping up these bubbles were easy and they popped very quickly… Try buying a ton of gold and see who can help you do that. Gold is so decentralized that less than 100 entitities in the world could make a transaction of that size and would be willing to do so.”

    Watch me blow your feeble brain away. Things that are in “massive” quantities are harder to pump up than things that are scarce. That’s econ 101 and common sense.

    BTW, anybody with the money can easily by a ton of gold in 1 second. It’s called the futures market, Einstein. The fact that you don’t know that means you are just parroting what someone else told you — probably some gold bug sales pitch.

    Good luck with your 100’s of ounces, lol… bragging being the last refuge one who knows he’s lost the argument.

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  31. 31
    microsofties says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 30

    That you believe a cash market is the same as a paper market is laughable. Even a genius like you has to understand that open interest in futures contracts and ETF options exceeds the amount of physical gold in all the warehouses around the world, so “your gold” actually belongs to someone else when you hold a paper contract.

    It’s very clear to me that you’ve never tried to take delivery of any commodity through a single futures contract on any exchange.

    If you are going to talk about the game, at least have some fundamental knowledge of how a futures exchange operates in the real world. I’ve taken delivery of both silver and gold through the COMEX and can tell you it was one of the most painful and costly experiences I’ve went through as a PM buyer. The system is designed to make it near impossible for any individual to take delivery of any substantial amount because it’s all based on paper…

    As for Econ 101, I loved that class. That’s the very one that taught me gold demand is inelastic. Scarcity is one small factor in the entire concept of price discovery in any market…I think I also learned that in Econ 101.

    You now have a couple posts on this thread that offer no original thoughts or commentary of any kind.

    Care to enlighten us with some “macro” thinking that will turn our collective heads or refute my original contention that gold is not in a bubble and therefore a far better investment than housing?

    You’ve got my attention…Don’t disappoint me with some half-witted post like the last one.

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  32. 32
    david losh says:

    RE: microsofties @ 31

    I’ve owned gold, and it is a fun hobby. You are correct the price of gold will continue to climb, so will art, so will classic cars, so will any collectible.

    Governments don’t have to hold gold any longer, it’s a mystery why they do it. Government can unload gold at any time and secure currencies in any number of ways, such as land that they own. It makes no difference.

    What you are missing is the cash on cash return of stocks, and Real Estate. Businesses are in business to make money. There is a return on that investment. Most Real Estate portfolios, including the family home, are designed to get a return. The fact most people don’t consider the family home as an investment is another problem for another day.

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  33. 33
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: microsofties @ 31RE: microsofties @ 31

    You made the idiot statement that things that are in “massive” quantities are harder to pump up than things that are scarce. You said it was impossible to buy a ton of gold, then contradicted yourself by saying you’ve taken delivery of futures and you’re an expert on the subject. It’s all there for the record.

    Please, just go away and stop annoying people. It’s obvious to everyone here you are a troll with nothing to contribute expect to embarrass yourself.

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  34. 34
    microsofties says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 33

    “What you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”

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  35. 35
    Pegasus says:

    RE: microsofties @ 34 – Micro..I disagree with your simpleton approach that gold is the answer. However I appreciate one’s right to decimate themselves no matter what the reason. Therefore I suggest that you continue to buy at the all-time highs and hopefully you use maximum leverage such as futures with your entire net worth since you know you are absolutely right and can’t be wrong. We will check back in a few years to see how it all worked out and to see if you stuck to your reasoning. Who knows….maybe you can take Buffett’s place in the world or just maybe Warren will let you shine his shoes.

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  36. 36
    2kt says:

    RE: david losh @ 32

    US Government owns a fair amount of gold bullion, about 8.1 tonnes. One tonne of gold has value of approximately $60 million at current market prices, so US gold reserves are approximately $450 billion. Our government does own gold, Dave.

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  37. 37
    Pegasus says:

    By 2kt @ 36:

    RE: david losh @ 32

    US Government owns a fair amount of gold bullion, about 8.1 tonnes. One tonne of gold has value of approximately $60 million at current market prices, so US gold reserves are approximately $450 billion. Our government does own gold, Dave.

    When was the last time anyone publicly audited those holdings?

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  38. 38
    microsofties says:

    RE: Pegasus @ 35

    The entire thread was about housing vs. gold. I never said gold can’t/won’t go down or that it is the only investment class worth buying these days…I just said the upside appreciation potential is far greater than that of the gains to be made in housing.

    I’ll let you know when I sell my physical…I can tell you that it won’t be before Nov 2012, however. Plenty of time for things to change out there, but the jobs report last Friday is the only report you need to worry about as it will impact policy as Obama and his troops scramble to create jobs.

    One last item…The “all time highs” of the last 12 months are actually far below the inflation adjusted peak of gold of ~$2251 back in 1980.

    We’re a long way off of that number but it should be breached before March or so. I’ll check back in on this thread at 1/1/2012 and 3/1/2012 with an update.

    My guess is the Case-Schiller index will be down a few % and that gold will be up substantially from today on both of those dates.

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  39. 39

    By microsofties @ 38:

    RE: Pegasus @ 35

    The entire thread was about housing vs. gold. I never said gold can’t/won’t go down or that it is the only investment class worth buying these days…I just said the upside appreciation potential is far greater than that of the gains to be made in housing..

    Gold is more volatile, so both the upside and downside potential would be greater.

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