October Stats Preview: Early Winter Edition

Welcome to November! New month, new stats preview. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

First up, total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

The big “surge” we’ve been seeing compared to last year’s numbers is wearing off, with October coming in just 16% above 2010 (vs. 22% in September and 32% in August).

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

The data for Snohomish actually showed a slight increase in the YoY number from last month, but since this includes a lot more than just regular sales, we can’t draw too many conclusions from that.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Still dropping like a rock, faster than can be believed to be any sort of natural healing of the market, in my opinion.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Lowest point on this chart since May 2010.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

Both King and Snohomish are at the lowest point they’ve been in over two years.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

32 comments:

  1. 1
    Marc says:

    This one of my favorite posts each month. It’s awfully tempting to want to call a bottom when looking at these charts. But it’s anybody’s guess as to how much impact the new foreclosure mediation changes are having. My hunch is not much but that’s based on absolutely nothing measurable.

    I suppose we won’t really know much until mid-Q2 2012 when the local trends will be more clear and more of the outcome of the burning global and national macro-economic issues will have been revealed.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    Scotsman says:

    Sales are up, inventory is falling, foreclosures are dropping off- if this isn’t the bottom I don’t know what is. It looks like .gov efforts are finally paying off. With these record low rates it’s a great time to buy! /sarc

    Wait- what’s this? Who put the turd in my punch bowl?

    “DPI (disposable personal income) adjusted to remove price changes — decreased 0.1 percent in September, compared with a decrease of 0.4 percent in August”

    Real disposable personal income decreased 1.7 percent (3rd quarter), in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent (2nd quarter)

    The personal saving rate — saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 4.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.1 percent in the second.

    http://www.bea.gov/index.htm

    Dang! Sounds like Mr. and Mrs. Homebuyer are continuing to tap savings and earning less as time goes on. Then there’s that Greece thing and the fact that almost 10% of our GDP is based on borrowed government spending.

    .

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3

    Apparently, Don’t Blame Those Balloon Loans for Recent 2011 Seattle Foreclosures Anymore

    Blame a jobless [un]recovery and ghost unemployed working for Radio Shack sales wages, instead of like engineering offices, with homeowner pay.

    Article last Summer:

    “…While it didn’t come close to the top of the list, Seattle saw a 10 percent increase in foreclosure activity during the first six months of the year, the biggest jump of the twenty biggest metro areas. Houston and Minneapolis also saw their foreclosure activity surge.

    Housing economists agree that today’s foreclosures are, for the most part, the result of the stagnant economy and stalled job creation. The sub-prime and exotic mortgage issues have been, for the most part, flushed from the system. These foreclosures are the result of homeowners losing their jobs, or finding replacement jobs that bring in less income.

    And without income, it’s hard to make your mortgage payment….”

    http://www.thinkglink.com/2011/07/29/c972/

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    Scotsman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 3

    Naw, it’s racism, pure and simple. It’s all whitey’s fault, right David? Minorities and children hardest hit:

    “Hollister – Despite making only $14,000 a year, strawberry picker Alberto Ramirez managed to buy his own slice of the American Dream. But his Hollister home came with a hefty price tag – $720,000.

    A year and a half later, Ramirez has defaulted on his loan, and he’s hoping to sell the house before it’s repossessed. And according to many housing advocates and civil rights groups, Ramirez is not alone. As mortgage foreclosures rise, many minorities are suffering.”

    http://hollisterfreelance.com/news/contentview.asp?c=213141

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5

    RE: Scotsman @ 2

    Credit Cards Being Replaced With Debit Cards in Oct 2011

    This will really slow consumer spending [the backbone of Seattle’s weak economy] down, ya can’t buy it, if ya haven’t saved for it….especially this Christmas….

    Article:

    “…Debit card issuance is booming in the United States, based on both Visa and Mastercard. Visa reported a 16.5% rise in debit card issuance this past year; Mastercard says debit card issuance rose 10.5% in the same period. Unsurprisingly, both charge card associations also reported a considerable dip in credit card transactions as well as an rise in debit card transactions….”

    http://www.knoxgreenwayscoalition.org/credit-card-use-down-debit-card-issuance-up-how-does-this-affect-your-retail-business/

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6

    RE: Scotsman @ 4

    America, Land of the Brave and Free

    Or……er, uh…….land of the unqualified home owners, bravely battling for the bailouts they expect from those of us that consider fiscal responsibility a financial plan.

    Thank God we all weren’t all like Ramirez, Freddie and Fannie need all the bailout loot the automatic budget cuts are mitigating and thrust on our tax payer shoulders, anyway[?]…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    Scotsman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5

    Yup, belt tightening and the elimination of temptation. If you don’t carry the credit card you can’t use it- but we need a visa/mc substitute to ease daily transactions. The debit card is the answer. It was pretty much all I used until the wife pushed to get airline points on a credit card. I still like the idea of debit and no bills at the end of the month, “just because.”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8

    It’s not too difficult to connect the dots. Some banks have been turning the foreclosed properties around pretty quickly, as have some of the better flippers. Fewer trustee deeds means fewer bank owned properties listed at 20% or more off, which means fewer sales (and also lower inventory). Then there’s also the seasonal effect.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9
    David Losh says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 4

    And they call me a racist.

    Yes, I could have made a career out of Hispanic loans. Even my Immigration Attorney was swindled with a bogus loan, that I tried to talk him out of.

    You don’t get it, don’t want to get, and continue to live in a dream.

    The Ramirez’s are old news. Why you bring up now shows how out of touch you are. Most of those predatory loans were the first to be cleared.

    My best Hispanic loan swindle story was from a couple whose wife ended up being the only person on the loan, on the Deed of Trust. She had no job, no income, no bank account, but great credit from some rent to own thing, or something. Her husband had applied for the loan, but had a dinge on his credit from Sears, where America shops. He bought a tool set there, they didn’t work, and he returned them. His charge account was never credited, and he refused to pay for tools he had returned. he had the reciept, but his account took three months to sort out, because he didn’t speaka da english to good, or so they say.

    This couple contacted me after an attorney told them there was nothing he could do. We short sold the house and closed within 90 days. The bank just couldn’t explain how, or why this woman ended up on the Note. All the paper work they had was for him.

    At one point I was looking at a half dozen of these bogus deals before I decided to do something else.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10
    David Losh says:

    RE: Marc @ 1

    What? What are you talking about? What bottom?

    Come to think of it, what do foreclosures have to do with anything. Tim said:

    “Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:Still dropping like a rock, faster than can be believed to be any sort of natural healing of the market, in my opinion.”

    How are foreclosures a natural healing process.

    It just goes to show what amateur Real Estate opinionators can do on a daily basis.

    What “heals” the market place is to pay off debt. Scotsman has that part right. The longer any one fools around the longer it will take for a correction.

    Buyers need to buy what they intend to pay off, quickly. Building equity to trade up will be the only thing to “fix” the market place. Buyers need to buy properties with value also. Start making some smarter decisions rather than considering what you gift a Brokerage.

    If you have debt, consider bankruptcy. The longer you extend, and pretend with debt the longer it will take for us all to recover.

    Getting rid of debt doesn’t mean that dumping assets is the way to go. Every one needs to start considering the amortization of the loans rather than dumping them just to start the process over again.

    Get the frigging banks out of your lives. Amortize what you can, bankrupt what ever is excessive.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    whatsmyname says:

    Well this is weird. Your NWMLS bar chart shows 3451 active listings for Snohomish County, but your Estately (updated hourly) shows 4600. You’ve probably answered this before, but what’s up with that?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    The Tim says:

    By David Losh @ 10:

    How are foreclosures a natural healing process.

    What I mean is that falling foreclosures is what we would expect to see as the market heals, but I’m saying that this decline is way too fast to be natural. It has to be legislation-related, legal hangups, or some sort of process issue at the banks.

    RE: whatsmyname @ 11 – Not exactly sure why, but Estately seems to consistently over-report Snohomish County SFH listings. I correct for that in the charts on the monthly preview post.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. 13
    Scotsman says:

    Updated info- while foreclosures are dropping the number of delinquent loans is up. The pipeline continues to fill while banks slow processing.

    “New problem loan rates increased sharply over the last two months, with 1.6 percent of loans that were current six months ago now 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure”

    Nice charts, rteleased today.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/lps-mortgage-monitor-over-4-million.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    David Losh says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 13RE: The Tim @ 12

    Like with the example of Ramirez; how much of the money Mr. Ramirez, gifted to the lender will be returned to Mr. Ramirez?

    If the bank made a loan that they even suspected couldn’t be repaid, weren’t they taking money under false pretenses? Or if the bank lent on a property they knew was over priced, were they defrauding investors, and stock holders?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. 15
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: David Losh @ 9 – Yes, I call you a racist, because of this post:

    By David Losh @ 48:

    White people move into neighborhoods and ruin it for every body. The white male, in particular, has no enterprise, and only a sense of entitlement.

    On Queen Anne you can segregate these people out of the main stream. They can live there with the grocerias and day care without bothering any body.

    In West Seattle white people are in every bodies business about every little thing. That’s what makes the neighborhood disjointed. If we could only contain these people to one little area then you might have something. The way it is now they are just a blight that keeps spreading.

    You did not apologize for it, in fact you reaffirmed it the next day.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. 16
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 15

    racism is ugly…………no room for it here on the Bubble: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNE2Qm0AqJw&feature=related

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 16

    The “R” Card is Frequently Used When the Debate Opponent Has No Common Sense Rebuttle to Science and Logic

    Overpopulation and demography science is a GREAT example.

    I blame our public [private too?] schools for taking “overpopulation” out of our world history books…..about the same time, they took bachelors of science degreed teachers out of math and science too….but by God, we’ve got money for English as a second language from our dwindling property tax revenues.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. 18
    David Losh says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 15

    And I’m completely unapologetic for pointing out that West Seattle has got to be one of the most socially engineered communities in the city.

    It always fascinates me that only white people claim racism doesn’t exist, except when it’s directed at them.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. 19
    Bman says:

    I think you should do more predictive analysis… that is, create an algorithm to predict what is going to happen at specific moments in time in the future. Use historic data to create the algorithm. Use Monte Carlo analysis to create a worthwhile algorithm.

    Then test it. Looking at past data is only interesting if you build a predictive algorithm from it, and then test it to make it better by tweaking it and testing it again, and again, and again.

    In addition, I would compare multiple years across the data show above — and not just 2010/2011. What are the trends in this year/year delta when a market is declining, bottoming, and rising again? Are these trends being repeated now? Factor in seasonality.

    Just some ideas to help you take this to the next level.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. 20
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: David Losh @ 18

    last Xmas Dave I was in the mall and I sensed people were looking at me….it angered me…almost as much as the racist horse: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVDBIM5Q1WM

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. 21

    RE: David Losh @ 18 – I think you might be better off focusing on culture rather than race.

    Just as an example, to the extent Asian students might do better in school or certain subjects, it’s not because of their race. It’s because their culture is such that parents typically take a much greater interest in their schooling.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. 22
    deejayoh says:

    By Scotsman @ 13:

    Updated info- while foreclosures are dropping the number of delinquent loans is up. The pipeline continues to fill while banks slow processing.

    “New problem loan rates increased sharply over the last two months, with 1.6 percent of loans that were current six months ago now 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure”

    Nice charts, rteleased today.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/lps-mortgage-monitor-over-4-million.html

    Nice charts, but they don’t support your assertion. Those charts show delinquent loans falling… 30, 60, and 90 days delinquent – all down.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nmF0fxMM3ww/TrCSmwsGeDI/AAAAAAAAM5s/gmGsq9qzbJU/s1600/LPS%2B2011-11%2BA.png

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. 23
    Scotsman says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 22

    Here we go again. . . ;-) I’ll admit I haven’t- and won’t- take the time to work through all the numbers. I will say there are two issues here- the rate of new foreclosures and the total number of foreclosures either in process or likely to be in process. Looking at this chart one gets the impression the backlog is up slightly and there are a growing number of loans where not much is happening and hasn’t for some time:

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rhcKDIQv4m8/TrCVFYiVZtI/AAAAAAAAM6E/DmIKZkwRf64/s1600/LPS%2B2011-11%2BC.png

    Clearly some people are years into the process without resolution, and that number is growing. Is there an overlap in the data? Maybe. Is the data for the total backlog complete in the sense that we can work out a number for

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. 24
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Scotsman @

    Stupid edit function!

    Anyway, I’m not sure we can really come up with a number for the current total backlog of properties that will eventually be processed as foreclosures and put on the market.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  25. 25
    David Losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21

    I do make the cultural arguments later on, but the white is right crowd can never make the distiction, so why bother.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. 26
    David Losh says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 22

    A nice chart that shows the rate of foreclosure is a constant, if I’m reading it correctly. There’s only so much that can be done until the process hires more people.

    It’s also a Catch 22 because foreclosures are the market place. More foreclosures continue to erode the equity of properties in general.

    My point is that banks should negotiate with the people who hold a title interest. There should be second position forgiveness, renegotiation of terms, and waiving fees. There would be more money in the economy, and in terms of building personal wealth, than continuing down this spiral.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  27. 27

    I just bought a “jobs” bracelet at Starbucks. This will be a turning point for the U.S. economy….because we are “indivisible.”

    Delinquencies and trustee deed numbers are sure to fall further next month.

    /sarcasm

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  28. 28
    deejayoh says:

    By Scotsman @ 23:

    RE: deejayoh @ 22

    Here we go again. . . ;-) I’ll admit I haven’t- and won’t- take the time to work through all the numbers. I will say there are two issues here- the rate of new foreclosures and the total number of foreclosures either in process or likely to be in process. Looking at this chart one gets the impression the backlog is up slightly and there are a growing number of loans where not much is happening and hasn’t for some time:

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rhcKDIQv4m8/TrCVFYiVZtI/AAAAAAAAM6E/DmIKZkwRf64/s1600/LPS%2B2011-11%2BC.png

    Clearly some people are years into the process without resolution, and that number is growing. Is there an overlap in the data? Maybe. Is the data for the total backlog complete in the sense that we can work out a number for

    The second link you posted is for the actual foreclosures. So what it shows is that the number of foreclosures is increasing, but it is due to clearing more of the really old (e.g. 24+ month late) mortgages.

    Again, this chart completely contradicts your post – because it shows
    a) it shows banks appear to be moving more aggressively on really overdue loans (aka “clearing the backlog”)
    b) it only shows the number of loans coming out of the pipe – not coming in

    So if this chart shows that more loans are being cleared as foreclosures, and the other chart shows that fewer loans are delinquent – pretty safe to say that this is exactly the opposite of your assertion that “Updated info- while foreclosures are dropping the number of delinquent loans is up. The pipeline continues to fill while banks slow processing.”

    Delinquent loans are down
    Banks are processing foreclosures faster

    For certain you haven’t taken the time to work through the numbers

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  29. 29
    Scotsman says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 28

    Fair enough. But it still seems there’s a bubble in there- the processing rate is fairly consistent and too low to seemingly absorb the 01-2010 peak in lates. Just looking at area under the curves, (second chart) and comparing with the totals in the first chart doesn’t seem to match up. I still think there’s a data overlap or hole. Does it matter in the big picture? Probably not. But I will admit that my original statement was too strong.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/lps-mortgage-monitor-over-4-million.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  30. 30

    […] the statistics on Trustee and other deeds showing that foreclosures are slowing down in WA State due to the new law…but will likely […]

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  31. 31

    […] time once again to expand on our preview of foreclosure activity with a more detailed look at September’s stats in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First […]

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  32. 32

    […] Here’s the statistics on Trustee and other deeds showing that foreclosures are slowing down in WA State due to the new law…but will likely ramp up again next year. […]

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.