Guess the Price Round 3 Update: 13 Open Houses Later…

It’s been over two months since we kicked off Round 3 of our Guess the Price contest, so let’s have a little checkup.

In the chart below I have plotted each of the thirty-two guesses by readers in this contest as a blue circle. The orange squares show where the home’s asking price has been so far, and the green diamond shows the current asking price as of this post.

Price Guesses: 7310 19th Ave NW

Only one of the guesses in this contest was higher than the current asking price. Of course, since the home has been sitting for seventy-one days since the last price drop, I’m starting to get the feeling that there isn’t going to be a buyer at this price.

Also of note: I’ve been getting email alerts every time the listing agent schedules an open house. So far I have counted thirteen open houses in the twelve weeks since this listing came on the market. Nearly every single weekend they’re welcoming in the public, sometimes on both Saturday and Sunday. There was even an open house on New Year’s Day (but not Christmas weekend).

Is the seller hoping that the “spring buying season” will whisk in a buyer who somehow hasn’t seen the home yet? Whatever the case, this time around the home is having quite a different experience than it did last time on the market, when it went pending three days after being listed and sold for $42,250 over the asking price.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

24 comments:

  1. 1
    Mel Torme says:

    So far I have counted thirteen open houses in the twelve weeks since this listing came on the market.

    Well, as Tim said before, it’s all about the open house stats.* “Open houses are UP! BYOPP – Bring Your Own Pink Pony!” /fake-smiling realtor/ This one is bringing those stats up, even during the gloomy wintertime.

    All these open houses are great for the burglars too, as it gives them an easy chance to do a bit of “destaging”, which is all the rage in these depressionary times. Hey, don’t get pissed – flat screen TVs don’t grow on trees, ya know. They’re a Constitutional right, just like cable (see Commerce Clause).

    * ;-}

  2. 2
    Jonness says:

    By Mel Torme @ 1:

    Hey, don’t get pissed – flat screen TVs don’t grow on trees, ya know. They’re a Constitutional right, just like cable (see Commerce Clause).

    I saw a nice overpriced waterfront home last weekend sitting and rotting on the market with no attention. Interestingly, their were two mounds of plaster rubble on the floor in the family room. When I looked up to see the cause, I realized the flat screen TV had been forcibly ripped off the wall and stolen. Apparently tools cost time and money, so it’s best to just yank them off the wall.

    The seller has plenty of equity in the home to drop the price, but apparently he believes heat, taxes, insurance, maintenance, ongoing mortgage payments, and continual restaging is a more cost effective strategy than dropping the price to a reasonable level.

  3. 3

    Even Circus Barkers

    Convince a percentage of the audience that their vampire man and zombie back from the dead are real as steel….

    Maybe after paying the Pink Pony real estate circus ticket price, they just haveta believe?

  4. 4
    David Losh says:

    Open Houses are essential for a working Real Estate agent. It invites the neighbors, and the neighbors are also getting e-mails, agents are getting e-mails, and potential buyers are getting e-mails.

    You pay an agent for exposure, well, any way, that’s what all the online Brokerages are claiming. So you submit your listing online, and wait?

    No, you do your job. You work the neighborhood, you get to know every body. In a few weeks you know who will sell, who will wait, who is looking to retire, and who is ready to move on.

    That’s what you pay an agent for. You pay the agent to know what they are doing in the Open House.

    I have a story about Tara Silicio. She had an Open House twice a week, every week on 3rd Avenue North West for about four months. She was new to the business, didn’t know anybody, but it’s like twelve years later, or maybe twenty, and I still remember her name.

    This particular listing, that you are advertising here, happened to be by Liz Talley. Liz Talley is the very best of Real Estate agents. You will never find a more honest, straight forward, diligent agent to work with. She knows her job, and does it perfectly.

  5. 5
    David Losh says:

    RE: Jonness @ 2

    If they have the equity, then you should make them an offer. They don’t have to lower the price, no one does. You hire an agent to carry the offer, and follow through.

  6. 6
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: David Losh @ 4RE: David Losh @ 4

    How much do they rebate to Buyer David? How much to list with them? If nothing and 3% please tell me what they do SPECIFICALLY to get a persons home sold in this economic climate. Furthermore, what do they do for their Buyers. You seem to know them so well…Please advise…

  7. 7
    Jonness says:

    The lack of a sale is certainly not due to the listing agent not trying. It’s a pricing issue.

  8. 8
    David Losh says:

    RE: Jonness @ 7RE: Ray Pepper @ 6

    It’s the tag team for 500 Realty.net.

    I’m always happy to help

    The market place we have today is about the seller getting the most for a property. This is a sellers market. Buyers are paying premium prices for properties.

    Now a seller could put on a show of a rock bottom price, and get bid up, or they can make the property available to offers. It seems to me both methods are working just fine.

    Now, Ray, as you know the best deals never go on the market. The best deals, the choice properties, are handled by agents, and in many cases a deal is done before the property hits the market, or before it ever hits the market.

    OMG!!!! Horrors of horrors do you mean that properties change hands without entering the NWMLS!!!!???? OMG!!! Those thieving Real Estate agents are doing it to us again!!!!!

    If you like the house make an offer. If you have a good agent they will get you more than the rebate for a better value in a property.

    Every house in America is for sale today.

    You just don’t know what you don’t know.

    Thanks Kary, I like that phrase.

  9. 9
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: David Losh @ 8

    just a few comments:

    The market place we have today is about the seller getting the most for a property…HUH??? Doesn’t the seller ALWAYS desire to get the MOST for their property?

    “Now, Ray, as you know the best deals never go on the market” I disagree. Most sellers including the banks want their property listed to gain multiple offers thereby escalating their sales price. Please describe the type of seller that would want their home SOLD prior to being listed. Even the Trustee Sales encourage multiple bidding by setting prices low..exp. BECU…

    Its a bad night for you David..Only 1 thing makes sense that you said: “You just don’t know what you don’t know”…How could I possibly argue with this statement of fact..

    Please warn me if I’m entering the mind of David of which we all know………….there is no escape..

  10. 10
    David Losh says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 9

    Every house is for sale. Every seller has a motivation. It’s between two individuals.

    Buyers are compalining about no inventory. At the Trustee Sales, as you have said, they keep pulling the properties until some Vestus idiot gets frustrated and bids a property up.

    The sellers are in charge right now.

    Inventory is low.

    You say every one should put the house on the NWMLS? Why? What advantage is there, right now, today? Are we going to play the redfin wait, and watch game, or list it low, and watch it go? What game are we going to play today, Ray?

    When is the seller going to get the most for the property? Today? or next year?

    Really if you want to continue this train of thought, best of luck.

    People are much better off, today, hiring an agent that is working in the field than waiting for some magic to happen on the internet.

  11. 11
    lecadidupe says:

    A price under $400,000 seems to be enough to send even the crappiest of crapboxes flying of the shelves in solid Seattle neighborhoods. I suspect what will happen here is that (the doubtless beleaguered) Ms. Talley will be asked to maintain the current price through the “Spring selling season.” A drop to $399,000 will follow in, perhaps, June, but this may not be sufficient. A drop to around $380,000 would probably get the job done, based on my experience looking at places in this price range recently.

  12. 12
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: David Losh @ 10

    “People are much better off, today, hiring an agent that is working in the field than waiting for some magic to happen on the internet. ”

    Well David I will just say this…Sellers can hire an agent that you feel is “working in the field” but I’m here to tell you that SAME AGENT is also waiting for some “magic to happen” on the internet or they would NOT list it on the MLS!!

    You see David, we Agents are simply facilitators to a transaction to assist sellers find buyers and vice-versa. Nothing more…Without the MLS your Agent “working in the field” is as useful as a screen-door on a submarine.

  13. 13
    Jonness says:

    By David Losh @ 8:

    The market place we have today is about the seller getting the most for a property.

    They can try all they want, but the house is sitting there rotting because it’s overpriced.

    It’s the tag team for 500 Realty.net.

    The 6% model was dependent upon RE agencies having a monopoly on access to the information they provided. Now-a-days, this information is free to all by simply logging onto the Internet. Thus, the 6% model is going the way of the horse. I know it, you know it, and so does everyone else. However, at the moment, only a few people will accept it, admit to it, and adjust their thoughts and actions to be able to profit from it.

    I chose Ray’s agency to represent me over yours because he provides better services for less money. It’s nothing personal. The world is changing.

    http://theoldmotor.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Get-A-Horse.jpg

  14. 14
    David Losh says:

    RE: Jonness @ 13RE: Ray Pepper @ 12

    It started in 1998 with Moore Data who used to be the data storage for the NWMLS, and as I understood it many other. Moore Data began selling the software to agents so they could share data with clients.

    What Glenn is trying to say is that he, and Zillow fought to get the data to the consumer. The fight was actually to get the rebate. Glenn went to Congress to get the rebates you are all fussing about. The Department of Commerce had blocked them as an undue influence on the consumer.

    The data has always been headed to the internet. The government, and assessor records, probably did the most to advance sales data to the consumer.

    You can put all of the information on the table, put a buyer, and seller in a room, and they will just look at each other. If that weren’t true there wouldn’t be a 500 Realty.net.

    Really, I could write a book about this, and probably will, but for right now the consumer is paying way too much, and I don’t mean the commission, the commission has always been negotiable.

  15. 15
  16. 16
    David Losh says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 15

    It’s my bed time Ray, and hopefully tomorrow I can go back to work.

    It’s been fun. Thanks

  17. 17
    Still Anonymous says:

    Oooh! Oooh! The house has ALMOST TWO FULL BATHROOMS! Here, here’s a blank check; just write whatever amount you wish me to pay for it. Then I can get the ball rolling on the HELOC so I can do $60K worth of remodeling!

  18. 18
    deejayoh says:

    I think I’ll buy it just to win the contest.

  19. 19
    deejayoh says:

    Or maybe I won’t get the chance. Showing as “pending inspection” today

  20. 20
    The Tim says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 19 – Whoa, no kidding!

  21. 21
    Jonness says:

    By deejayoh @ 19:

    Or maybe I won’t get the chance. Showing as “pending inspection” today

    First the Gingrich thing, and now this? Human stupidity never ceases to amaze me! RE sales are driven by 99% emotion and 1% logic. And I think this is demonstrating David Losh’s point about it being a seller’s market. Because most people are stupid, why not stick it out there at 2x what it’s worth and see if somebody is stupid enough to buy it? Thus, instead of an overpriced market immediately adjusting to true value, prices go lower over an extended multi-year period. Five years after buying, the buyers look back and say, “gee, where did I go wrong? How did I screw myself this bad? It seemed like such a good deal at the time.”

    Then the government gives them another handout financed with money borrowed from China, and they frolic off in the pasture with the rest of the voting sheep.

    OK, I know some are taking issue with my “most people are stupid” BS. However,, IMO, every election is an IQ test that the U.S. population continues to fail time and time again…QED

  22. 22
    David Losh says:

    RE: Jonness @ 21

    Fair Market Value is based on sales data. You can’t tell a person to list a property for $300K when a smaller house up the street sold last week for $400K. You can do comparisons, but the list price has to be in line with the market.

    If you want to offer $300K on a $400K property you can do that. That’s what a buyer’s agent does. The buyer’s agent works at you direction, or may choose not to.

    This property was marketed correctly. If you are changing schools for your kids, now is the time to make that move.

    Real Estate is a snap shot in time. If you play the wait, and watch game you have to deal with the properties that are on the market at that time.

  23. 23
    FenceSitter says:

    It sold!! $423,400 on 2/17/2012

  24. 24
    The Tim says:

    RE: FenceSitter @ 23 – Whoa, no kidding! You’re fast, it looks like the listing was only just updated to sold status at 1:14 this afternoon. I’ll post up the winner first thing in the morning.

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