January market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Here’s their press release: Housing market “healing itself,” numbers are “astoundingly good”
Pending sales may not appear to be much higher than 2011 (up 13.7 percent in January), but the numbers are “astoundingly good,” considering such factors as harsh weather and the tax credits that boosted sales at this time a year ago, said Ken Anderson, president and designated broker at Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty in Olympia.
…
“Given that we lost a week with some of the worst weather in 16 years, the numbers are astoundingly good,” remarked Anderson, a director for Northwest MLS. “This is the first January in four that we can make a reasonable year-over-year comparison,” he added, noting numbers are no longer skewed by the artificial stimulus of various tax credits and incentives that date to 2009. “The improvement in the numbers show that the market is healing itself and standing on its own.” Anderson commented.
Wait, wait, wait. So, were there “tax credits that boosted sales at this time a year ago,” or are the numbers “no longer skewed by… various tax credits”? The NWMLS may be confused on this point, but the homebuyer tax credit ended in June 2010. Here’s what sales look like over the last nine years or so, with the tax credit’s start and end marked:
Sure, this January saw 63% more sales than the rock-bottom point we hit in January 2009, but I’d hesitate to call the sales volume “astoundingly good,” considering it’s still 35% below where it was between 2003 and 2007. But whatever.
Okay, on with the stats!
NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.
Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):
| January 2012 | Number | MOM | YOY | Buyers | Sellers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 5,378 | -2.1% | -28.4% |  |
 |
| Closed Sales | 1,095 | -25.3% | +7.7% | |
|
| SAAS (?) | 1.23 | -23.3% | -29.3% | |
|
| Pending Sales | 1,871 | +17.5% | +13.5% | |
|
| Months of Supply | 2.87 | -16.7% | -36.9% | |
|
| Median Price* | $315,000 | -1.6% | -11.5% | |
|
Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003 format), but keep in mind the caution above.
Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:
Wow, “astounding.”
Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.
This is the first time on record (my data goes back through 2000) that on-market inventory has decreased between December and January. Between 2001 and 2011, the average change is a 9.6% increase. The smallest increase was seen last year, when inventory rose just 1.9%. It seems that with prices continuing to fall, more and more potential sellers are “priced in forever.” Oh the irony.
Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the “demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.
Still looking at gains in sales coupled with declining inventory.
Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:
Slight uptick, but still in double-digit negative territory.
And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.
January 2012: $315,000
April 2004: $315,000
Here is today’s headlines from the Times (no P-I story yet):
Seattle Times: King County home prices drop again
Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.
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That tax credit claim is amazing. Even before I read what you wrote I was saying: “What?”
I would also question what weather affected January sales? February or March, sure, but January? I had a sale delayed a day or two by the weather, because of signing issues. But that was well before the end of the month.
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Why do they even bother with these statements? Does anyone actually take them serious? It’s not even entertaining anymore just pathetic.
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What’s the median for nondistressed properties?
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By patient @ 2:
Well, they have to say something. They have to issue a press release or make a comment to the toady real estate reporter who calls them. What are they going to say? ” Things still suck.”?
Or ” We really don’t have a clue.”?
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I noticed that the January MLS closed sales were about 450 short of the recently posted King County warranty deeds. Then I noticed there is a similar disconnect for most every month last year.
Is the lowly condo market moving 450 – 500 units per month? Are these deeds in lieu? What up? It’s a third to a half of the January market depending on whether you go high or low for your base number.
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“the numbers are “astoundingly good,” considering such factors as harsh weather”
Oddly, he forgets to mention rogue bears. You know, the ones who were growling at the doors of the few people who ventured out in the ‘harsh weather’ to tour houses.
Harsh weather – http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2010/10/stormier_winter_weather_in_store_for_pacific_northwest_forecasters_predict.html
whoops, that was for 2010-2011!!! All I know is my wife & kid are at the beach to take advantage of the sunny weather… Sarcasm off…
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Inventory is low. But sales are keeping up. Lowest possible interest rates. Bank foreclosures have significantly declined (whatever the reasons are). Short sales are on the decline too.
There are plenty of buyers looking for places to live. Why would the sales not increase and/or prices rise?
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I do find the Real Estate market astounding. This phrase really does say it well, ““The improvement in the numbers show that the market is healing itself and standing on its own.” Anderson commented.”
I keep thinking how quickly people forget, but there are a lot of buyers out there looking for something.
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Traffic, crime, bad weather, deteriorating neighborhoods — I’m starting to wonder if it even makes sense to live here let alone pay $400k for a 50 year old house. But there’s water and mountains everywhere. Maybe I’ll rent for the 4 nice months each year, and get away the other 8. Come to think of it, maybe $200k isn’t worth it.
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RE: Mars @ 7 –
Tight credit.
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Interesting how all of the indicators in the chart are favorable to sellers, except median price. Less active listings, more sales, lower SAAS, more pending sales, fewer months of supply. All point to less supply and more demand. But the median price continues to head down. I think it’s been like that for a while now…
Didn’t this happen as the peak of the bubble approached? All of the factors started to point to to much supply and not enough demand, but median price continued to climb for a while. If so, how long did it take for the momentum in median price appreciation to wear off and the prices to start declining?
Will the same thing occur as the post bubble trough happens? Is housing such a big purchase that pricing lags what supply/demand would suggest it should do? If yes, by how long?
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RE: Macro Investor @ 9 –
I’ve Lived in the Seattle Area Most of My Life
Was born in Seattle.
I’ve lived in Alderwood Manor, Kirkland, Bothell, Bellevue and Kent…and I watched a beautiful city evolve into a what it is today, still OK, but compared to the past, way too crowded and treeless…and, the real estate prices are horrifying, compared to pre-1978 affordability.
Will I retire here? Hades no.
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RE: Macro Investor @ 10 –
Yeah
Caused by subpar wage growth.
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By whatsmyname @ 3:
I wish they would publish that more. I’ve only seen it referenced in one of their releases.
Typically it’s about $400,000, but it sometimes varies by up to $20,000 either way. January was barely under.
Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.
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By whatsmyname @ 5:
Many reasons. Part of it is condos, part of it is unlisted properties, part of it is commercial/multi-family properties, part of it is Tim’s make up prior months issue, and part of it other things.
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RE: Azucar @ 11 –
Its Complicated IMO
I used to say watch the stock market, its an indicator of real estate, or watch grocery store and gas inflation; its an indicator of real estate….not any more, since underwater loans shut off the inventory, the Monopoly Rules all changed….you can land on the property but the Seller can’t afford to sell Boardwalk for $400 anymore, its not for sale.
Couple this wrench in the gear works with a clearly shrinking workforce per BLS [it shrank 1.2 million from Dec 2011 to Jan 2012 alone] fighting like cats and dogs for scarcer and scarcer single/double incomes per capita/household [even as unemployment rates supposedly decrease] to even afford the ridiculously high rents, let alone sky-high home mortgages payments…you get the gist….
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By Macro Investor @ 9:
I’ll never understand why some people don’t like older houses. I’d rather have a 50 year old house than one built this century (although there are certainly good and bad examples of houses from both periods). For one thing, a 50 year old house will more likely be a better lot in a better location.
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By Azucar @ 11:
Gee, it’s almost as if people are sticking their heads in the sand and ignoring something. Something that was very popular to point out on the way up, but now that the median is headed down, something only real estate agents mention.
The median is affected by the mix. In this case, the mix of distressed properties. As I noted today, the non-distressed median has been fairly steady for months and months.
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By Azucar @ 11:
That I would attribute to the basic law of supply and demand. When the prices were rising you had more and more people who wanted to sell, based primarily on the price they could get, not on other factors in their life (although those allowed it).
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By softwarengineer @ 16:
The stock market is still important for the upper end. Remember, most purchasers of such property do not get huge loans. The funds have to come from somewhere.
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 17:
From my perspective, (our looking is only in the Lake Washington School district) I would take a house Pre 1955 (or so) skip the 60s, 70s, 80s, and the early nineties. Unless a 60s/70s house been gutted, insulated, windows, electrical, plumbing, HVAC done, it is like living in a screened in carport. I can’t stand the “style” of the 80s.
The “stuff” being built today is being shoe horned around power lines, highways, swamps, and steep hills.
Newer stuff, at least meets a certain level of insulation, electrical and plumbing mandated by code. Granite and stainless in the big pictures are cheap.
Now in my rental neighborhood (Education Hill) it is evident that not all agree. There is a small dumpy house “listed” for $240k. It appears somewhat habitable, don’t know if it smells inside. Empty lots just down the street sold for $199k about 18 months ago.
For $40k you get a roof over your head. (Mind you that you probably could offer $225-230k and get the house)
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RE: Howard @ 21 – Many older houses have been updated. For example the 1940′s house we sold in Skyway had all but about 15′ of exterior wall insulated, 2005 electrical in the main house, 2005 copper supply in the main house, etc.
The most difficult/expensive to insulate, IMHO, are those from the 60s with a lot of glass and tall ceilings with no crawlspace.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 4:
I was thinking maybe telling the truth in a professional manner would be appropriate.
Many families are underwater on their mortgage payment but continuing to pay. However, many have stopped paying, and this has created a very messy foreclosure problem that will probably take years to unwind. Interest rates are at historic lows, which is helping to fuel sales numbers upward. However, prices dropped another 1.6% since last month and are down a stunning 11.5% since this time last year. In addition, there’s a very strong possibility prices will continue an overall downward trend for the foreseeable future.
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By Macro Investor @ 10:
Lending standards are especially tight in the Jumbo market. Buyers are increasingly coming to realize they’ve been duped. And of course, we have the whole foreclosure drag slamming the heck out of neighborhoods everywhere.
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By Azucar @ 11:
Actually, the data is fairly in line with where it was post 2000 stock bubble burst. The only thing still radically out of place compared to that period is prices compared to incomes. Thus, prices will most likely continue to trend to the downside.
When Bernanke commits to QE3, citing weak housing and unemployment as the reason, it probably won’t be a bad idea to pick up some gold.
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RE: Jonness @ 25 –
“When Bernanke commits to QE3, it probably won’t be a bad idea to pick up some gold.”
The next bubble?
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By Scotsman @ 26:
Probably. IMO, it’s not worth its current price. However, there is a strong correlation between periods when Ben decides to fly his helicopter, and gold prices surge to new record highs.
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