Guess the Price Round 3: We Have a Winner!

Recall the price-guessing contest posted to these pages on November 8th: Guess the Price Round 3: A Familiar Ballard Home

7310 19th Ave NW Seattle, WA 98117Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 7310 19th Ave NW in Seattle. With a current asking price of $437,000, this home has been on the market for 10 days, and is neither bank-owned nor a short sale. It sits between the Loyal Heights Playfield and Salmon Bay Park in the north end of Ballard, where the median sale price of single-family homes in October was $388,000.

Last time this house was sold (April 2005) it went pending in three days and sold for $42,250 over the asking price, closing at $431,200.

We had 32 guesses in the contest before it closed, with prices ranging from $290,000 to $433,000. The average price guessed was $379,152, and the median guess was $391,475. Here’s the plot of all the guesses, with the final close price & date marked in green:

Price Guesses: 7310 19th Ave NW

According to the NWMLS, the home sold last Friday (after just 111 days on market), with a closing price of $423,400—just $5,400 above the price guessed by commenter Jason. Congratulations! I’ll be contacting Jason privately to arrange receipt of his prize.

The final sale price came in 3% lower than the original asking price, and 1.8% lower than what this house sold for in April 2005.

In the first round the average of all the guesses came in 2.2% lower than the final sale price. In the second round, the average guess was 5.5% above the final sales price. This round, your guesses were 10.5% lower than the final sale price. Hmm, not exactly an improvement. Apparently you all underestimated the power of the Ballard.

P.S. (You may notice a dot way out in October that’s closer to the final sale price. That was a guess by Dweezil, who named a price of $421,000 but specifically qualified that it would be a foreclosure sale back to the bank. Since this was not a foreclosure sale, Dweezil’s guess was disqualified.)


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

33 comments:

  1. 1
    David Losh says:

    Liz Talley of Windermere did an excellent job of representing her sellers by having the property Open at every chance. I’m also, by chance, meeting another person who was touched by this transaction. Liz Talley worked in the neighborhood, help one of my clients, who in turn referred me to another client.

    This is an example of how hard Real Estate agents work to be involved in a community, and represent it. If there is a power in Ballard it’s because of people like Liz Talley.

    Just remember, it’s always better to hire a working Real Estate agent than rely on luck.

  2. 2

    Most of Us Guessed Way too Low

    Did that make the Seattle bubbleheads the buffoon(s) or the actual buyer?

  3. 3
    Pegasus says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – It’s Darwinism and the Greater Fool Theory working hand in hand. To think this can still happen in today’s real estate environment without a taxpayer funded tax credit is mind boggling. Hopefully they used a government-backed mortgage with little down so they can walk away in a few years after doing their part for continuing the global collapse.

  4. 4
    Dweezil says:

    This is hilarious. After I posted my guess and read everyone else’s guess, I felt like my guess was foolish. I should have just kept it simple. Lesson learned.

    But the fact that someone truly paid that much is pretty amazing.

  5. 5
    The Tim says:

    By Dweezil @ 4:

    But the fact that someone truly paid that much is pretty amazing.

    No doubt.

  6. 6
    ray pepper says:

    RE: David Losh @ 1RE: Pegasus @ 3

    Yes, I’m sure “by having the property Open at every chance” can help with the airing out the premises in a given sale by possibly opening a few windows, but thats it. In fact, it can be a HUGE turn off to a Buyer or detrimental to the sale in having a Listing Agent there right in front of them at an Open House.

    Other then that Open Houses day after day do nothing to stimulate a sale nor indicate how “hard” an Agent is working. Many can be found on their lap tops or smart phones in the home texting or doing Facebook. Agents do NOT sell anything…..Remember that Dave….We are simply facilitators and Agents/People who believe we are anymore continue to be the biggest fools in the room…..

    Sellers must focus on the price, commission being paid to the Buyers Agent, sign in front of home, making sure your listing is EVERYWHERE possible, common sense clean-up, and great pictures! It is also important sellers are educated on their duties to facilitate their sale as well.. Also talking to your neighbors is crucial if they have pets or crapped out cars.

  7. 7
    wreckingbull says:

    This house is in Meshugy-land, not far from the bubble-palace. Maybe he will come back and tell us we were all wrong.

  8. 8
    deejayoh says:

    By wreckingbull @ 7:

    This house is in Meshugy-land, not far from the bubble-palace. Maybe he will come back and tell us we were all wrong.

    It’s not in Meshugy-land. It *is* Meshugy-land.

  9. 9
    Blurtman says:

    $278 per sq. ft. You’re kidding, right?

  10. 10
    deejayoh says:

    By Blurtman @ 9:

    $278 per sq. ft. You’re kidding, right?

    Now that I look at it that way, I paid significantly less than that per sqft for brand new construction with a great view. But maybe the 1,500 sqft is from tax records, and doesn’t include the basement..

  11. 11
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 8 – This is hilarious. At first I thought you meant that figuratively, then I realized you meant it literally. Needless to say, I recall it was supposed to be worth about 600K+ by now. Add the TX costs, and that is why he is not here commenting today.

  12. 12
    Blurtman says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 10 – Could be. If not, my much newer East Side digs is a gold mine! (Not.)

    I suspect some Honee influence, as in “Honeeeee, it’s perfect!”

  13. 13
    David Losh says:

    RE: ray pepper @ 6

    You have no concept of the amount of commerce this hard work generated. I’m not saying anything about the price, or house, though I will be seeing it later today. I’m saying that people sitting in front of a computer aren’t doing Real Estate.

    BTW I did look at the box that Mike built. Once you see it in person you gotta know that was a big mistake.

  14. 14
    Ray pepper says:

    RE: David Losh @ 13 – I didn’t even need to see it in person. Just had to know about the 1.3 mill he paid to acquire the old house and the land. Then demolish and start again to realize we had a fool on our hands that was in denial and trying to deceive. Plus he verbally assaulted my avatar and that opened up the playing field to an all out assault on his foolishness.

  15. 15
    The Tim says:

    Ray, I moved your totally-off-topic comments to the Open Thread, where they belong.

  16. 16
    ray pepper says:

    does anyone EVER stay on topic here anyway? I think not….seems we always end up with some tangent on politics, taxes, or some stray listing.. I wondered where my comments went on the new Red Fin commercials today….I never read the Open Thread….Your Blog..your call….Please don’t go RCG on me…This is supposed to be the “no spin zone” right? “commentary without the sales spin”…Well, I heard some serious spinning today on 97.3….

    this may sound stupid but…where is the OPEN THREAD? I cannot even find it..

  17. 17
    The Tim says:

    RE: ray pepper @ 16 – Your comments that I moved weren’t even a tangent. They were completely out of left field, 100% unrelated to the topic of this post. Quoting from the rules, which are linked right between the box you typed your comment into, and the button you clicked to submit it:

    Please keep comments on-topic relative to the post that you are commenting on. For off-topic comments, please use the provided open threads and the forums. Off-topic comments may be deleted or moved to the current open thread.

  18. 18
    ray pepper says:

    RE: The Tim @ 17

    understood..but again…where are my two comments that you moved over….I seriously cannot find them..They were pretty EPIC BTW and I took the time to write them at Panera on my iphone so where? and please understand I was a BIT excited to hear Red Fin on the Radio as I pulled in for lunch…So I went right to the Bubble..

  19. 19
    The Tim says:

    RE: ray pepper @ 18http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/02/22/mid-week-open-thread-2012-02-22/#comment-157923

    Open Threads are always linked on the upper-right corner of the front page.

  20. 20
    ray pepper says:

    RE: The Tim @ 19

    Just visited…..Don’t like it over there….Its a Dark place…..

  21. 21
    Jason says:

    Hey, guys!

    The good news is that I won the contest. The even better news is that I bought the house myself!

    Now I’m off to TGI Friday’s to enjoy my winnings…

  22. 22
    Howard says:

    RE: Jason @ 21

    Really?!

  23. 23
    The Tim says:

    RE: Jason @ 21 – Ha ha. Funny joke. Unless of course your real name isn’t Jason and your initials are Q.A.L. (according to the Warranty Deed filed with King County).

  24. 24
    David Losh says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 14

    That was $1.5 Million, if I remember correctly, but he’s the one that’s counting.

    BTW, have you ever worked as a Real Estate agent? Houses sell better when they are Open.

  25. 25
    jesus christ says:

    Real estate will drop another 20%.You cannot sustain this high of a market without wage increases,which have basically been stagnant overall throughout the decade. Now you will have 35000 less postal workers in the housing market too.Get ready for $4 gas. Its an economic hiway to hell out there folks!

  26. 26
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: jesus christ @ 25
    The buyer of this house got a 1.8% discount by not buying in 2005.

  27. 27
    Pegasus says:

    RE: jesus christ @ 25 – Thanks for the insight Lord….can you straighten out Kary for us or is that another thing we just have to endure?

  28. 28
    David Losh says:

    I drove by the house today, and it isn’t a bad price for a prime neighborhood.

    Had I known it was Open every week end I probably would have gone to see it.

    You as a redfin representative couldn’t figure out the Open House strategy, and Ray Pepper had a melt down at the thought of having an Open House. This is one of the tricks to the trade. There are thousands of others that I’m sure you’ll dispense as the game changer Real Estate agent concept takes hold of redfin.

  29. 29
  30. 30
    me says:

    Wow. Well, I guess there’s one born every minute. I live in this neighborhood, and I live at a comfortable 800 a month. Whenever I consider buying a home, I reign myself in when I consider that (a) this is not that great a neighborhood and (b) I’d have to shell out 4x what I am paying monthly. No way that’s a win.

  31. 31

    […] I thought it might be interesting to dig into a real life example of just how much money a bubble-believing home buyer would have lost by purchasing a home during the insanity of the housing bubble in Seattle. What better example to use than our favorite Ballard home that just sold? […]

  32. 32
    phil says:

    Price really comes down to monthly payment (for better or for worse) and with 20% down and a 5% rate (on the high side), a 30 year mortgage would only cost you $1,800.00/month. As a comparison, I bought a $200,000 condo in the late 90’s and my mortgage cost me $1,300.00/month with a 7.75% rate.

    Probably could rent out the basement for $800/month if you needed the cash.

  33. 33
    Jonness says:

    What are these people, newlyweds? Seriously, the home was $197K in 1997.

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