Recall the price-guessing contest posted to these pages on November 8th: Guess the Price Round 3: A Familiar Ballard Home
Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 7310 19th Ave NW in Seattle. With a current asking price of $437,000, this home has been on the market for 10 days, and is neither bank-owned nor a short sale. It sits between the Loyal Heights Playfield and Salmon Bay Park in the north end of Ballard, where the median sale price of single-family homes in October was $388,000.
Last time this house was sold (April 2005) it went pending in three days and sold for $42,250 over the asking price, closing at $431,200.
We had 32 guesses in the contest before it closed, with prices ranging from $290,000 to $433,000. The average price guessed was $379,152, and the median guess was $391,475. Here’s the plot of all the guesses, with the final close price & date marked in green:
According to the NWMLS, the home sold last Friday (after just 111 days on market), with a closing price of $423,400—just $5,400 above the price guessed by commenter Jason. Congratulations! I’ll be contacting Jason privately to arrange receipt of his prize.
The final sale price came in 3% lower than the original asking price, and 1.8% lower than what this house sold for in April 2005.
In the first round the average of all the guesses came in 2.2% lower than the final sale price. In the second round, the average guess was 5.5% above the final sales price. This round, your guesses were 10.5% lower than the final sale price. Hmm, not exactly an improvement. Apparently you all underestimated the power of the Ballard.
P.S. (You may notice a dot way out in October that’s closer to the final sale price. That was a guess by Dweezil, who named a price of $421,000 but specifically qualified that it would be a foreclosure sale back to the bank. Since this was not a foreclosure sale, Dweezil’s guess was disqualified.)