Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to December data, Seattle-area home prices were:
Down 1.3% November to December.
Down 5.6% YOY.
Down 31.9% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices fell 2.0% from November to December and year-over-year prices were down 6.0%.
Still nothing too surprising here. Some improvement compared to a year ago, but still definitely seeing the seasonal decline.
Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):
Only Detroit saw a year-over-year gain in the latest update. DC had been showing gains, but they seem to have corrected their data, and now DC is in the red. In December, Miami joined Phoenix with a month-to-month increase, while everyone else fell.
Seattle came in near the bottom of the stack in month to month losses, while Detroit passed Chicago and Atlanta for the biggest loss.
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.
In December, sixteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw increases) than Seattle:
- Detroit at +0.5%
- Denver at -0.4%
- Phoenix at -1.4%
- Dallas at -1.3%
- Washington, DC at -1.6%
- Charlotte at -2.3%
- Cleveland at -2.5%
- Boston at -2.6%
- New York at -2.9%
- Miami at -3.8%
- Portland at -4.0%
- Tampa at -4.3%
- Minneapolis at -4.9%
- Los Angeles at -5.2%
- San Francisco at -5.4%
- San Diego at -5.4%
Just three cities were falling faster than Seattle as of December: Chicago, Las Vegas, and Atlanta (where prices fell 12.8%!).
Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through December.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the fifty-three months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 31.9%, another new post-peak low.
In closing, here’s a chart you might recall from past posts, showing just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” So far: May 2004.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 02.28.2012)
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I’ll Be Greenspan Today
Ah, the Bubble degradation of the real estate market is slowing, its probably just froth now.
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I don’t track the down YOY percentage. Isn’t the 5.6 one of the lowest numbers in quite a while?
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 2 – If by “lowest” you mean “least negative,” as in closest to zero, then yes. This is the closest we’ve been to flat since November 2010, when prices were down 4.7%. The YoY trend has been slowly heading up since March 2011.
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Sometime it would be interesting to note how other Washington State cities, suburbs, exurbs and even rural areas are doing in comparison, rather than just compared to the other 30 metro areas in the U.S. Tri-Cities or Vancouver, WA for example.
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RE: The Tim @ 3 – Thank you. That is what I meant.
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That Seattle YoY trend line for 2011 says it all. The market is recovering, but slowly. If that trend continues, and I have no reason to believe it won’t, it will be a couple years before we see YoY appreciation again. At this point Spring of 2014 is looking like a good time to buy a home in the Seattle Metro Area.
P.S. I see that you (The Tim) finally stopped posting that offset chart comparing us to California. Thank you and good riddance. While it made a good point during the bubble, that chart stopped being relevant years ago. I’m glad you finally saw the light.
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By Dave0 @ 6:
Good catch. I had wondered why this post wasn’t as “entertaining.” ;-)
Maybe the graph could be replaced with a YOY change graph?
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 7:
You mean like the very first graph in the post? The Tableau one that allows you to view any/all of the cities and the two composite indices?
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More than 5% decline in a year and over 1% in month is not what I would call normal market seasonality or a recovery.
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RE: The Tim @ 8 – Wow, you’re quick! ;-)
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We’ve just started getting serious about buying a house on the Eastside (Sammamish) and it’s getting really crazy out here. We’re looking at houses 550K-700K and have been outbid already; had to add escalation clauses and new listings are going pending in 1-5 days. Today we are going to see a property listed only yesterday, and it had 12 viewings yesterday alone (Monday). I suspect it will be pending within a day too.
Is this the normal ‘Spring bounce’ effect? Or is there just so little inventory causing us to have to fight over what little there is?
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RE: AddyLaddy @ 11 – Not familiar with the current market there, but if you’re not dealing with REOs, then probably it’s related to inventory.
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RE: patient @ 9 –
Even Flat is a Joke Too
After lost closing costs and the longer you own the more listing maintenance poured into it to sell. I’d estimate if you aren’t seeing a 20-25% wealth appreciation after living in a house for like 5-10 years; you lose money.
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RE: Dave0 @ 6 –
Yeah, some “recovery”. Its DOWN 5 something percent year over year.
“Doc, how am I doing?”
“Well, you’re still bleeding to death, just not quite as fast as you were before. We stopped the aorta from bleeding, but that pesky femoral artery is still spraying like a fire hose. So I’d say you’re well on your way to recovery.”
Recovery?
Homey don’t think so.
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RE: AddyLaddy @ 11 –
I think it’s just that there isn’t a lot of nice stuff on the market right now. With prices down and interest rates low, there are more people interested in buying. Certain areas, like Sammamish, have houses that go pending quickly if they’re half decent. And yes, buyers come out of the woodwork in February. I wouldn’t say that there are many more buyers out there this February, but when you combine a few more buyers with less nice stuff on the market, it does get frustrating.
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RE: AddyLaddy @ 11 –
We hear this every spring on this blog. How Sammamish homes in the $600k range sell at wild bidding wars the same second the listing is up. Still prices seems to be going down, weird. You would think that would be no homes below a trillion dollars in Sammamish by now.
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RE: patient @ 16 –
It’s just a weird market. In 2007, sales were down, inventory was bloated, and prices kept going up ( until they didn’t). Now inventory is tiny, sales are up, and prices keep coming down.
At some point prices will probably stop dropping.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 17 –
At some point yes. But that can be now or in 2020. Comments here about hot markets have been plenty full over the yearsvand at best useless as predictors.
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RE: patient @ 18 –
Absolutely. Things don’t stay the same. In 2007, Skyway was the hottest market, and now prices there have fallen more than almost anywhere else in the Seattle area.
Sammamish attracts a lot of Microsofties, and people like living there.
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We’re having similar problems, and we’re looking all over the East side in the 300-400K price range. Stuff going way too fast, and not enough on the market in even decent shape.
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RE: patient @ 18 –
I’d Stick With the Malthus Theory for Predicting Future Trends
The Malthus Point is when resources can’t carry [like feed them and give them decent jobs] the world’s population anymore….IMO we’ve definitely reached that point at 7 billion on planet earth.
If you don’t think global when you think Seattle, you’re missing the boat too. The Earth’s coastal cities [like Seattle] are all having population density increases, chronic wage deterioration and house price decreases. Until we ever deal with population density increase there is no stopping house price deterioration, especially with federal treasuries pegged out at 0% interest to keep mortgage interest lower….there’s no more hope that way and at best, it was just kicking the can down the road anyway.
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A quick search on Redfin shows 136 (overpriced) homes in Sammamish between $500k and $700k, seems like a fairr amount to choose from. Perhaps the stampede is when a reasonably priced property hits the market.
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RE: John Bailo @ 4 – I live near Vancouver, WA, and basically is it the same as Portland – HUD lumps Clark county in the PDX metro area.
I grew up in the Tri-Cities, and remain baffled that anyone would voluntarily locate there, but it is quite the retiree destination, as well as viewed as a regional source of employment. Their local economy is a world unto itself, and they’re doing pretty good. I occasionally look at low-income housing in Richland for grins (rental income), and am amazed at the high prices.
Probably looking at Spokane or Boise would be more instructive than the Tri-Cities.
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By patient @ 22:
I think maybe you’re including pending sales in that search. The picture is quite different if you only look at active listings: 54 results. Currently there are 76 pending sales. By the crude “months of supply” metric, that’s 0.7 months of supply. That is pretty tight, any way you look at it.
For comparison, SFH in King County as a whole has: 4,990 active listings / 3,720 pending sales = 1.3 MOS Still tight, but nearly 2x the specific Sammamish market mentioned above.
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By patient @ 16:
True… However, it’s worth noting that these claims don’t normally start popping up until April or so. It’s only February—still winter. Personally, I think the low inventory is going to lead to a lot of “bidding wars” this year. But I still don’t think it will push prices up. More likely just mostly stop their fall.
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By webbish6 @ 20:
Aaaahhh, the Microsoft effect. Too bad that I didn’t win the employment lottery by getting a job there 15-20 years ago (and would now be a soccer dad!) . . .
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RE: AddyLaddy @ 11 –
The Eastside is where its at! Bid em up baby…Worth every penny. Between the Hummus at Mediterranean Kitchen on Bellevue Way, Cheesecake Factory, and Maggiano’s housing is worth every penny! Then throw in SnowFlake Lane, Lucky Strike, and Lincoln Square theatres what else does a human need?
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RE: The Tim @ 25 –
“More likely just mostly stop their fall.”
Nice one.
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RE: ray pepper @ 27 –
The eastside lacks great pizza. Until they get a great pizza place, they’re doomed for a fall.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 29 –
Not true. Issaquah has imo the best Pizza in Washington state with Tutta Bella ( together with their other sites ). That must explain why Sammamish is trampled down by hords of house hungry buyers in the deepest of winter.
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By ray pepper @ 27:
Ha, yes. The Bellevue Collection and Snowflake Lane: the pinnacle of human achievement. If you breathe deeply, you can almost smell the Los Angeles marine layer…
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 29 – True for the entire West Coast.
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RE: Sweet Pea @ 31 –
love it…and btw Ira…Pagliacci is in Bellevue Square..Their pizza is great..Not alot of cheese. I can’t process too much cheese or it causes binding in the bowel…Same with popcorn and clam chowder ….I get all knotted up like a rubber band ball…
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RE: patient @ 30 – Yes, that is our fall back. I like the salads, too, and the wine list is OK. It is always crowded and is family friendly. The East side is an incubator, as is the Highlands, a large, developed hive.
But Tutta Bella attempts to replicate pizza as is in Italy. There is no good New Jersey/New York style pizza on the West Coast. I think it is the refinery leach into the water supply that gives that missing kick.
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RE: patient @ 22 – They are building $600K and up new homes in my Sammamish neck of the woods. Even 4,000 sq. ft. an up monsters in the Chestnut development on 212th. The new homes seem to be selling, too. Buy now before you are priced out.
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RE: patient @ 16 – The high income requirement keeps out the riff-raff.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 29:
While I would agree with the pizza, we have darn good bagels right from the ovens at Blazing Bagels.
I was “oven boy” in NYC bagel shop for three years… Blazing Bagels are good.
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RE: ray pepper @ 33 –
I do try to keep up with the inner workings of the Ray Pepper bowels. Now we know.
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By ray pepper @ 27:
While I contemplate where to live, ignoring the fluff of above. I am looking at a new job in Seattle. It is a 32 minute bus ride from Redmond. Tim’s ride if I recall was somewhere around 45 minutes. Tim’s house in Kirkland/Redmond would probably be 1.5 to 2 times the cost depending on neighborhood.
I strongly disagree with Tim on schools though. I am willing to pay the price to be in Lake Washington schools. I strongly agree about parents make or break a childs education. My wife is a public school teacher.
I am willing to pay the entry fee to have my kids in a better school district, specifically Lake Washington or Bellevue. Preferably Lake Washington as that is where my wife teaches and it’s important to have my kids and wife on the same schedule.
Without hearing it from a frequent poster here, we are looking in the upper right quadrant using I90 and the lake.
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RE: Blurtman @ 36 –
In that sense, having lots of dollars becomes less about being “rich” and more about having an identity code that selects a certain group…like the star on a Sneech.
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By Howard @ 39:
Is 32 minutes the actual time that you’ve observed riding the bus, or the time on the schedule? My bus ride can be as little as 33 minutes in, 35 minutes out. Or, when traffic is inexplicably nasty, it can be over an hour. Usually, it’s less than 45 minutes. The point is, you shouldn’t just believe whatever the schedule says.
Yes, I have been meticulously tracking my commute in a spreadsheet.
Well, good luck finding a home built in 1920 in Kirkland or Redmond. And even if you throw out that feature (which was one of the big things we liked about the neighborhoods we were looking in), I doubt you’ll find a similarly-sized home in comparable shape (total kitchen & master bath remodels) for under $500k, which is 2.2x what I paid.
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RE: The Tim @ 41 –
Schedule. I have to be honest and say i have never taken a transit bus in my life. I never had the opportunity till I moved here.
I hope the 520 tolls help keep the busses close to schedule. I am looking at the 545 from the transit center in Redmond
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RE: The Tim @ 41 –
Absolutely agree. You have a decent 1920s house and I will end up in a dark 1960s rambler. But its just a roof over my head to keep me dry.
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Seems the masses are sensing a change and getting a bit grumpy. As an understanding dawns that they may not be getting that formerly $600k home for $29K our crew dives into comfort food and wine. A lot has changed, but the poor are still poor and the rich live where they want- and don’t always worry about the cost.
Back to work.
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By Howard @ 37:
Blazing bagels are barely acceptable =). The only decent (actually, excellent) bagels in this region are Eltana’s, which is downtown.
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RE: Scotsman @ 44 -
Change? Things seems pretty much same old post bubble decline with some artificial attemtps to slow the deflation with foreclosures and big debt lurking in the background . The only big change is you Monsieur Scotsman.
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RE: Ross Jordan @ 45 –
As far as bagels go, you’re both wrong. Blazing Bagels are OK for a steamed bagel, but that’s what they are, not boiled. Mikey’s in Redmond are pretty good. Eltana’s bagels are just weird. They’re boiled, but they don’t let the dough rest, and the dough has zero salt in it. I’ll take Bagel Oasis over either one of those two.
On pizza, Tutta Bella is pretty good. I go there, but it’s that certified Neapolitan style, with ovens and flour imported from italy. Like Blurtman, the only pizza that truly satisfies is the new York/New Jersey style. Big Mario’s on Capitol Hill comes close.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 19:
I’m a trendsetter.
Seriously, it went down so much because it was going up so much. Sort of like Phoenix, but in a lower price range.
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 47:
Thanks Ira, I now have my weekend plans!
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 47:
The “weird” Eltana style is the Montreal bagel; and Eltana’s is pretty true to form (though in montreal you’d get a dozen bagels for ~$5, and the shops would be open 24hrs).
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RE: Howard @ 39 –
bus ride? r u serious? I don’t wanna sound RUDE but if I ever had to take a bus to work because of my house location I would either give up the JOB or the HOUSE! Last time I was on a bus was in Hawaii and before that High School.
Isn’t there high risk for taking a shiv in the back on those things? Or at the very least sucking up some urine smelling odor from an Occupier or someone from Lynnwood?
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By ray pepper @ 51:
Have to? No… Call me a whatever you want… I just bought a Prius..
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 47 –
Kettleman on NW 23rd in Portland makes the best bagle I’ve had in the Northwest.
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RE: Howard @ 52 – nothing wrong with a Prius…Love em..But, I will assume you have limited risk of a shiv or urine stenched odor travelling with u..
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RE: The Tim @ 24 –
Thanks Tim, and when we want 4+ beds for our family of 6 and want to keep my sons in Skyline (98075) that search ends up down to 21 properties, or 9 if we want more than a postage stamp of plot (8000 sqft). I think we’ve visited all of them already!
Perhaps the stories of 1-5 days from list to pending will bring out more sellers, but only if they’re able to take the loss and pay the 6% realtor penalty.
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RE: AddyLaddy @ 55 –
While spring should bring more sellers the inventory of regular listings will likely remain relatively tight for years to come as a result of would be sellers being under water. I feel for you being in this market. It ain’t pretty for sellers or buyers.
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aapl and oil WAY UP! Seattle house prices WAY DOWN! Go team!
The overall trend in Seattle house prices remains down. But, it’s certainly a better time to buy than it was in 2007. I’m seriously looking, but it’s a tough sell with the high prices and crappy inventory. At this rate, I’ll probably be forced to wait it out; thus, timing the bottom perfectly.
DaveO is probably right about Spring 2014 being a good entry point. Pray I’m not still commuting till then though. Maybe I can buy a cheap short sell in the meantime, live in it for a few years, and rent it in the future. :)
Gotta go. I’m building an acoustic guitar!
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RE: ray pepper @ 51 –
You’d probably want to check with The Tim on that one…”I love the smell of urine in the morning…”
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RE: ray pepper @ 33 – Ray:
+ 1 for Pagliacci’s, the best pizza in the world.
-1 for Too Much Info. (on the bowels , etc.)
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RE: Howard @ 52 – The route can make all the difference in the world. The 550 from Bellevue is a rather pleasant crowd. The 5, which heads North in/out of Seattle, not so much. I think I have seen every possible bodily excretion on the 5 in my transit days.
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I just like how Ray admits that the last time he even set foot on a bus was “in Hawaii and before that High School,” and yet he purports to know about what it’s like to commute to work on the buses around Seattle. Hilarious stuff.
FWIW, I’ve found the Sound Transit buses to be quite pleasant, with no bodily fluids, offensive odors, or crazies 99% of the time.
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By The Tim @ 61:
That’s because Ray is not on them, and/or you don’t ride a bus that goes by The Claim Jumper!
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By The Tim @ 25:
I suspect prices will take the normal Spring bounce, but fall to a new low next winter.
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By Scotsman @ 44:
More like, as those who bought thinking they would get rich continue to lose more and more wealth, Prozak sales skyrocket. Meanwhile, aapl hit a new record high today. We might be entering an overbought situation, but with the crazy Central Banks, we could head higher. From here on up is crazy gambling, but don’t cash out. Instead, use intelligent stops.
Agreed, because at the end of the day, the amount you earn is directly related to the amount you can afford to comfortably pay to house your family. It’s about jobs and wages, and neither has improved enough to support a price:earnings ratio 25% above historically healthy levels.
Those who bought at the wrong time are praying for inflation. Eventually, they will get their wish. But first, they need to suffer some more while brutal deleveraging cycle continues to rear it’s ugly head.
Those who think it’s over are being lulled to sleep by Central Bank printing and governments borrowing 40 cents on every dollar they spend.
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