Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $232,092 (down 1.3%)
- Mid Tier: $232,092 – $374,017
- Hi Tier: > $374,017 (down 1.6%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through December 2011.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
All three tiers continued to fall in December, with the low tier switching from the biggest fall in November to the smallest in December. The low tier fell 0.2% MOM, the middle tier dropped 1.7%, and the high tier lost 0.9%.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through December 2011.
It definitely looks like the high tier will be the first to inch its way back up to zero. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit that point before June. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of December – Low: -12.3%, Med: -9.4%, Hi: -2.2%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
Current standing is 41.5% off peak for the low tier, 35.5% off peak for the middle tier, and 27.9% off peak for the high tier. The middle and low tiers each set new post-peak low points, while the high tier remains a couple points above its February 2011 low.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 02.28.2012)