Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

24 responses to “Monday Open Thread (2012-04-16)”

  1. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 46:

    2. no democrat has said it will solve our deficit so that is straw man..

    I’m confused. Are you saying President Obama is a socialist? ;-)

    From the SOTUA:

    Tax reform should follow the Buffett Rule. If you make more than $1 million a year, you should not pay less than 30 percent in taxes. And my Republican friend Tom Coburn is right: Washington should stop subsidizing millionaires. In fact, if you’re earning a million dollars a year, you shouldn’t get special tax subsidies or deductions. On the other hand, if you make under $250,000 a year, like 98 percent of American families, your taxes shouldn’t go up. (Applause.)
    You’re the ones struggling with rising costs and stagnant wages. You’re the ones who need relief. Now, you can call this class warfare all you want. But asking a billionaire to pay at least as much as his secretary in taxes? Most Americans would call that common sense.
    We don’t begrudge financial success in this country. We admire it. When Americans talk about folks like me paying my fair share of taxes, it’s not because they envy the rich. It’s because they understand that when I get a tax break I don’t need and the country can’t afford, it either adds to the deficit, or somebody else has to make up the difference — like a senior on a fixed income, or a student trying to get through school, or a family trying to make ends meet. That’s not right. Americans know that’s not right. They know that this generation’s success is only possible because past generations felt a responsibility to each other, and to the future of their country, and they know our way of life will only endure if we feel that same sense of shared responsibility. That’s how we’ll reduce our deficit. That’s an America built to last.

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  2. softwarengineer

    Remember the Heydays, When Homelessness and Begging Were Convined to Just Seattle’s Pike Street Area

    Now its spreading everywhere in the Seattle area. Irrespective the stand on homeless shelters is “not in my neighborhood”.

    Article in part:

    “…”This is an issue, a problem that is not going to leave Kent anytime soon,” said Terry Pallas, shelter director for Union Gospel Mission. “As a matter of fact, if anything, we … project that it is just going to get worse.”…”

    http://www.kentreporter.com/news/147071475.html

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  3. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 46:

    3. you get tax credit for state taxes so this passage is just wrong.

    According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, those Americans reporting income between $15,000 and $75,000 in 2009 paid anywhere from 1 percent to 7 percent of their income in federal taxes. It would suggest that Romney paid more than twice the rate of what low- and middle-income Americans paid as their effective tax rate.

    First, it’s a deduction, not a credit. Second, in any case that would have absolutely no impact on whether or note that statement is correct.

    Before you call something out as wrong, you should at least understand it.

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  4. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 46:

    4. then there is just this bizarre nonsense.

    Most disturbing to tax experts, however, is that the Buffett rule – which would raise $47 billion over 10 years – seems just poor tax policy.

    “This is not the way to deal with the tax problem; this isnâ��t the way to raise revenue,” Williams said.

    huh?

    Not bizarre at all. You just don’t understand. Here’s a clue. Just because it’s something President Obama supports, that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. The people currently out of work because President Obama has been repeatedly pushing this idea hopefully understand.

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  5. softwarengineer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1

    Yes Kary

    There’s hogwash on both sides of that political fence. The Republican “job providers” with tax breaks just insource into America on the cheap or outsource our jobs away. The deficit with no end mentality makes as much common sense has taking out a 2nd mortgage to avoid forclosure.

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  6. Dirty Renter

    Cheney, with new body part in tow, spoke out this week, calling Obama’s presidency an ‘unmitigated disaster’. After all, he does have firsthand knowledge of unmitigated disasters…no?

    On a happier note, the NAR, MBA & ABA are fighting the CFPB tooth & nail…so as to continue making zero & negative amortizing loans. Keep up the good work boys & girls.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304299304577346493034232660.html?mod=WSJ_Banking_leftHeadlines

    It was great to listen to David Walker on Squawk Box this am; too bad no one will heed his warnings.

    That is all.
    Have a nice day.

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  7. Kary L. Krismer

    I know pfft doesn’t read stale weekday threads, so just in case Natalia doesn’t either . . ..

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 52:

    By Natalia Orinko @ 45:
    And one more thing. The concept of the filibuster astounds me. So even when a part has 51 senators, it really means nothing! And both sides seem to honor it, and have for a long time. can you explain it?

    It recognizes the fact that politicians are human beings subject to stupid impulses, and restrains that. Thus, for example, a few years ago a bill to tax certain people at 95% passed the House, because those people had been politically vilified by the President repeatedly. That type of thing would be very unlikely to pass the Senate.

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  8. Scotsman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4

    “Just because it’s something President Obama supports, that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea”

    Whoa! Expect a knock on your door late tonight. The back door. ;-)

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  9. redmondjp

    By Scotsman @ 8:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4

    “Just because itâ��s something President Obama supports, that doesnâ��t mean itâ��s a good idea”

    Whoa! Expect a knock on your door late tonight. The back door. ;-)

    Where have you been Scotsman? Knocking is so 1970s . . . “No-knock” is the standard these days, and you’ll get in big trouble for shooting back at them while they are breaking into your home (and if they kill your dog in the process, well, too bad). Also, make sure to have giant house numbers out front, as they have a really bad track record when it comes to accidently getting the wrong address . . . (sorry to pfft but no links today, you can do your own searching to verify all of this)

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  10. Blurtman

    David Stockman on the Bill Maher show. He is brilliant. And spot on.

    28% is only 2% away from the Buffet Rule.

    Obama – the hip Ronald Reagan.

    Tax Reform Act of 1986

    reduced individual income tax rates (top rate 28%) and repealed capital gains exclusion

    repealed investment tax credit

    lowered corporation income tax rates; top rate lowered to 34 percent

    increased personal exemption amount from $1,080 to $2,000

    set uniform capitalization rules for manufacturing or construction

    increased standard deduction from $3,670 to $5,000 (joints)

    limited deduction for nonbusiness interest

    repealed second earner deduction

    limited passive losses

    established income limits on use of IRAs for taxpayers covered by pensions

    revised corporate minimum tax

    repealed sales tax deduction for individuals

    set 2-percent floor on miscellaneous itemized deductions

    http://www.econdataus.com/taxcuts.html

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  11. Natalia Orinko

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7

    Tatiana and I do read the posts almost everyday Kary. We can’t seem to get any sleep drinking all of this coffee!

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  12. redmondjp

    The taxes are done and e-filed!

    We had to pay almost $500, so we got to keep that money in our own bank account for that much longer and earn interest in the amount of, um, er, well, let’s just say that the tax software would have rounded it down to $0. After two consecutive late-niters muttering not-very-nice things at the computer, I’m ready to sign up for the flat tax – anybody know how I can enroll?

    The good news is (or is it bad, it depends upon how you look at it), my annual property tax amount will exceed my mortgage interest this coming year. I know that it’s really cheap to rent funds right now, but I am looking forward to only having to rent my house from King County and not also from the bank. Sadly, the way things are going, the county taxes will probably reach my entire PITI (for my meager house, anyways) in my lifetime.

    Looking at my return, my wife and I combined contributed almost THREE TIMES as much (in actual dollars) to charities as VP Biden did, and we make wayyyyy less than he does! It just cracks me up, these people who love giving OTHER people’s $ away but fail to do so themselves. I seem to recall that Al Gore had a similarly dismal giving level while he was the VP and was making his returns public. Put up or shut up, as my mom used to say . . .

    According to this article, Biden and his wife have been tightwads for years (and yes, Cheney was also percentage-wise, although in total funds he still gave a lot more than the Bidens):

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-12-biden-financial_N.htm

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  13. softwarengineer

    RE: redmondjp @ 12

    Obama Was a 1% Charity Giver BTW [to That Wild-eyed Church He Used to Go to Regularly]

    Before he got elected in 2008.

    I know what you mean, and its not just money…..I volunteer my time and efforts for good causes for about half my income….hades, just giving a poor family a bag of groceries now-a-days is better than letting these charity organizations skim your contributions for fat management fees too.

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  14. ChrisM

    McKenna wanders down to Clark county in yet another poorly written article.

    http://www.columbian.com/news/2012/apr/16/mckenna-highlights-help-for-homeowners/

    “Like thousands of Clark County homeowners who received a notice of mortgage default in 2009, Jim Fleming got into trouble after his income as a real estate broker dropped dramatically.

    [snip]

    “You’re so upset, you can’t think clearly,” said Fleming, a father of four who has lived in his ranch-style home for 21 years.”

    Interesting – loan mod on a 21 year loan? I wonder if the reporter even picked up on that.

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  15. No Name Guy

    By redmondjp @ 12:

    Looking at my return, my wife and I combined contributed almost THREE TIMES as much (in actual dollars) to charities as VP Biden did, and we make wayyyyy less than he does! It just cracks me up, these people who love giving OTHER people’s $ away but fail to do so themselves. I seem to recall that Al Gore had a similarly dismal giving level while he was the VP and was making his returns public. Put up or shut up, as my mom used to say . . .

    According to this article, Biden and his wife have been tightwads for years (and yes, Cheney was also percentage-wise, although in total funds he still gave a lot more than the Bidens):

    And don’t forget the Dear Leader, The Great One, O-Man himself. Cheapskate first class until he started running for the Senate, then he had to make some PR donations.

    That’s par for the course for “liberals”. Their brains are wired to think that the Government will take care of it so they don’t have to personally do anything. Hence you always see whiny lefties demanding higher taxes, more regulations, more “compassion” from the Govt and yet rarely lifting a finger themselves either through money or time.

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  16. No Name Guy

    RE: ChrisM @ 14

    5 will get you 10 it was a refied HELOC fueled spending binge on cars, vacations and the latest iCrap.

    About when I started reading here (~year or so ago ????) there was a place about 1/2 mile away up for short sale. Bought about the same time as I did (early / mid 90′s) for within 10k. Short sale price was ~1.5x original purchase price. Makes you go hmmmmmmmm. Takes about 3 seconds to figure out what they did – pull the equity and blow it.

    Jim Flemming: It’s NOT about the income being reduced. It’s about your spending that went haywire. Look in the mirror and you’ll see the problem.

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  17. Natalia Orinko

    When it comes to giving to charity, study after study shows that the low-income tiers give (proportionately) more than others.

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/05/19/68456/americas-poor-are-its-most-generous.html

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  18. aerojd

    RE: redmondjp @ 12 – Thank goodness for tax software! Maybe someday we can muster the collective political will to simplify the U.S. tax structure, but I’m not holding my breath. My total tax rate for 2011: 17.7%. The only part of the number that is soft is the WA state sales tax. I used the estimate from IRS tables / tax software, which seemed a little on the low side but without verifying receipts I have no way to know for sure.

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  19. redmondjp

    By aerojd @ 18:

    RE: redmondjp @ 12 – Thank goodness for tax software! Maybe someday we can muster the collective political will to simplify the U.S. tax structure, but I’m not holding my breath. My total tax rate for 2011: 17.7%. The only part of the number that is soft is the WA state sales tax. I used the estimate from IRS tables / tax software, which seemed a little on the low side but without verifying receipts I have no way to know for sure.

    Amen to that! I used the state tax estimate from the software/tables as well, and manually added one “big ticket” sales tax item on a used pickup that I purchased (always save those receipts from the title transfer!). If one were to manually enter the receipt amounts on a weekly or monthly basis, it might be doable to get an actual value.

    You are correct about the tax code not likely changing; the thousands of those involved in the tax “business” today have a vested interest (not to mention lobbyists) in making sure that things stay complicated. That’s the reality and I wish I could convince my “fair-tax” evangelizing friends (who I agree with in principle) of that.

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  20. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 3:

    By pfft @ 46:
    3. you get tax credit for state taxes so this passage is just wrong.

    According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, those Americans reporting income between $15,000 and $75,000 in 2009 paid anywhere from 1 percent to 7 percent of their income in federal taxes. It would suggest that Romney paid more than twice the rate of what low- and middle-income Americans paid as their effective tax rate.

    First, it’s a deduction, not a credit. Second, in any case that would have absolutely no impact on whether or note that statement is correct.

    Before you call something out as wrong, you should at least understand it.

    comparing Romney’s federal taxes to a regular person’s is not fair because 1/2 of taxpayers don’t earn enough to qualifty for Federal taxes. romney made $20 million last year and paid under 15%. state taxes are regressive and therefore a higher burden for the poor and middle class.

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  21. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 4:

    By pfft @ 46:
    4. then there is just this bizarre nonsense.

    Most disturbing to tax experts, however, is that the Buffett rule – which would raise $47 billion over 10 years – seems just poor tax policy.

    “This is not the way to deal with the tax problem; this isn�t the way to raise revenue,” Williams said.

    now you earn an even bigger huh.

    raising taxes isn’t a good way to raise tax revenue? ok.

    I didn’t know that an idea could cause people to lose their jobs.

    where are all those jobs from the bush tax cuts, including for capital gains, that we had in 2001 and 2003.

    I thought so! end of story.

    huh?

    Not bizarre at all. You just don’t understand. Here’s a clue. Just because it’s something President Obama supports, that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. The people currently out of work because President Obama has been repeatedly pushing this idea hopefully understand.

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  22. pfft

    By Blurtman @ 10:

    David Stockman on the Bill Maher show. He is brilliant. And spot on.

    28% is only 2% away from the Buffet Rule.

    Obama – the hip Ronald Reagan.

    Tax Reform Act of 1986

    reduced individual income tax rates (top rate 28%) and repealed capital gains exclusion

    repealed investment tax credit

    lowered corporation income tax rates; top rate lowered to 34 percent

    increased personal exemption amount from $1,080 to $2,000

    set uniform capitalization rules for manufacturing or construction

    increased standard deduction from $3,670 to $5,000 (joints)

    limited deduction for nonbusiness interest

    repealed second earner deduction

    limited passive losses

    established income limits on use of IRAs for taxpayers covered by pensions

    revised corporate minimum tax

    repealed sales tax deduction for individuals

    set 2-percent floor on miscellaneous itemized deductions

    http://www.econdataus.com/taxcuts.html

    even better in video.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnpG6qCltCw

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTBt5APga7Q

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  23. pfft

    By No Name Guy @ 15:

    By redmondjp @ 12:

    Looking at my return, my wife and I combined contributed almost THREE TIMES as much (in actual dollars) to charities as VP Biden did, and we make wayyyyy less than he does! It just cracks me up, these people who love giving OTHER people’s $ away but fail to do so themselves. I seem to recall that Al Gore had a similarly dismal giving level while he was the VP and was making his returns public. Put up or shut up, as my mom used to say . . .

    According to this article, Biden and his wife have been tightwads for years (and yes, Cheney was also percentage-wise, although in total funds he still gave a lot more than the Bidens):

    And don’t forget the Dear Leader, The Great One, O-Man himself. Cheapskate first class until he started running for the Senate, then he had to make some PR donations.

    That’s par for the course for “liberals”. Their brains are wired to think that the Government will take care of it so they don’t have to personally do anything. Hence you always see whiny lefties demanding higher taxes, more regulations, more “compassion” from the Govt and yet rarely lifting a finger themselves either through money or time.

    Obama is raising taxes on himself so you’re wrong…

    Buffett is for raising taxes on himself as are a lot of very successful people. Bill Gates is on that list too.

    “Their brains are wired to think that the Government will take care of it so they don’t have to personally do anything.”

    the government is us and so therefore we are the government. It’s called a community coming together and doing together what we couldn’t do alone. it’s the basis of a functioning society really. I guess you don’t know that though.

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  24. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 21:

    I didn’t know that an idea could cause people to lose their jobs.

    Unfortunately President Obama doesn’t understand business, and that they make decisions based on what they think the future might be. When you have the President repeatedly pushing for tax increases, that affects what business does. President Obama is in many ways his own worst enemy when it comes to the economy.

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