Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

23 responses to “Monday Open Thread (2012-04-23)”

  1. softwarengineer

    What Will Seattle Look Like in 50 Years?

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/thebigblog/2012/04/22/what-seattle-will-look-like-in-50-years/#4620-8

    I like the freeway picture entitled:

    “…High tolls and fuel costs have rendered the area’s highways undrivable, except for Seattle’s wealthiest residents. (Getty Images)…”

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  2. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1 – Good find. I like: “White Center, on the other hand, is a haven for artists and intellectuals.”

    Picture 3 though, they apparently don’t realize Allentown already exists, down in Tukwilla.

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  3. softwarengineer

    This Has Been Going on the Last Decade

    And keeps snow-balling bigger and bigger each June, when more are added to the chronic decade old growing snowball…..

    http://news.yahoo.com/1-2-graduates-jobless-underemployed-140300522.html

    Should we stop going to college? Hades no, the lessons and logic from a good college education are important even without adequate future job opportunities.

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  4. Natalia Orinko

    RE: softwarengineer @ 3

    “Should we stop going to college? Hades no, the lessons and logic from a good college education are important even without adequate future job opportunities.”

    The article mentions a young man who can’t get job after graduating two years ago with a degree in creative writing. So what did he intend to use this degree for? Journalism?? Everyone with a blog today is a journalist. The truth is that he had no plan. And that was a terrible mistake. And now he is considering going back to get an advanced degree?! For what? He needs to go sell shoes at Nordstrom. If he is good at it he will become a department manager. And then if he is good at that a buyer. Then a store manager.Then a regional manager. and maybe a vice-president. That is how America works. At least for my extended Russian family.

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  5. Blurtman

    RE: Natalia Orinko @ 4 – Or, if he were from a wealthy family, his dad, or family, or friends. could set him up in business, It is the same for the working class, but the hook-up might be to a minimum wage job, or perhaps, a construction job. But if you graduate with a skill in demand, these days a technical skill, engineering for example, you are better off as a grad than those with humanities degrees. It has been my experience than one learns a lot that one would not likely have on one’s own in college. It opens your mind to new things. It is up to you to pursue your passion, and get good at things that matter to you..

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  6. softwarengineer

    RE: Natalia Orinko @ 4

    Perhaps It Worked in Russia

    In America the 767 was developed mostly using northwest Community College kids at Boeing IMMEDIATELY HIRED [no internship] as technicals. Some degreed engineers were used as stress analysis checkers. BTW, the 767 is/was a rousing success…American ingenuity.

    Dumb Down thumb me now for being American Patriotic and citing Seattle history accurately.

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  7. Bob

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-prices-fall-to-nearly-decade-low-2012-04-24

    The overall C-S is near a decades low. Seattle is at worst since bubble. But don’t worry – this does not impact homes north of i-90 in King County. Its all good there – keep buying

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  8. softwarengineer

    RE: Blurtman @ 5

    Wrong Blurtman

    Degreed Engineering unemployment is twice normal levels today….enough said.

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  9. softwarengineer

    RE: Blurtman @ 5

    Look for a Major Sealle Area Plant Shutdown at Boeing This Year

    Its not in the news, but comes from my technial friends’ gossip that are usually right.

    Don’t worry, Boeing will just pack people into “bull pen” offices [5'-6' cubicles] without significant layoffs with no where to park….and SWE has a bridge he can sell ya….

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  10. Dirty Renter

    RE: softwarengineer @ 9
    I just noticed that your bluejeans blend into your blue couch and it makes you look like Johhny Eck in the movie ‘Freaks’. I’m going to find a movie clip and post it.

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  11. Dirty Renter
  12. Blurtman

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8 – Sure, for the slackers. Embrace the recovery. ;>)

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  13. Blurtman

    RE: Dirty Renter @ 11 – One of us. One of us.

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  14. No Name Guy

    RE: softwarengineer @ 6
    RE: Natalia Orinko @ 4

    Natalia is spot on. What the heck is some kid doing going to school for a useless creative writing degree? Hello! McFly….. don’t blow a wad of cash on a useless degree – creative writing = luxury, and putting luxuries on the credit card is a recipe for financial ruin. And especially don’t double down on the mistake by going to grad school. Crud, the doofus should have apprenticed as an electrical line man or something similar.

    And SWE – you’ve been out of the game for a while, haven’t you? Sorry but back in the day of the 767 it was all hand drawn blue prints and hand calculated stress analysis. You NEEDED an army of techs to do the grunt drafting and hand calculation work. In that regard, yes, you’re citing history accurately. However, it’s been passed by, it’s as obsolete as a steam locomotive is to a diesel electric – there’s a new way of doing things. Stop bemoaning the (metaphoric) loss of coal shoveler jobs. CAD and FEM systems have replaced the need for the vast majority of the 2 year tech degree folks. Get with the 1990′s and the 777 – it’s practically all CAD drawn by the 4 year engineers.

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  15. pnwman

    Housing Market Doldrums
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/23/the-housing-market-doldrums/

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  16. Blurtman

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8 – My nephew graduated last year with an engineering degree and got a decent ops job right out of school. He jumped from there to a medical device company and is doing OK. Of course the kid has great genes, but his classmates were similarly employed right out of school.

    Architecting is always boom to bust I believe. If you go into the field, you better be aware. A friend’s son who is an E.E. just got out of a decent law school, and is back at his former employer, wiser, but doing the same thing as before going back to law school.

    That’s why I am pro-crime. Remove regulation and let’s grow the criminal jobs base.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/new-study-shows-architecture-arts-degrees-yield-highest-unemployment/2012/01/03/gIQAwpaXZP_story.html

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  17. David Losh

    RE: The Tim @ 17

    and if you bought, and sold in 2006, 2007?

    Some people did well buying in 2006, and 2007 with a 30 year mortgage. Why would you think they didn’t? It depends on what you bought, and where. The terms were certainly much more attractive than they are now.

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  18. One Eyed Man

    RE: No Name Guy @ 14

    http://www.prism-magazine.org/apr08/feature_02.cfm

    I agree with your comment, but there is one thing that surprised me when I found out a few years ago. Boeing uses French software to do its CAD work. You’d think that with all of our software technology the US would have had a quality product, but apparently nothing as good as Dassault’s CAD software for the aircraft industry. And here I thought the only decent things the French ever invented were mayonnaise and menage a trois.

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  19. No Name Guy

    RE: One Eyed Man @ 19

    Seeing as I work at a certain large aerospace company in Seattle…..and use said software….and have seen first hand what it can do……

    I guess I shouldn’t talk specifics of which software package. Suffice it to say that there are multiple providers in the market space. Some companies use one provider, other companies use a different provider. Each package has it’s quirks, strengths and not so great features.

    ;-)

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  20. pnwman

    Cashing in on Foreclosures
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/25/cashing-in-on-foreclosures/

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  21. Kary L. Krismer

    By pnwman @ 21:

    Cashing in on Foreclosures
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/25/cashing-in-on-foreclosures/

    Yes, the bank CEOs are getting a lot of money because they have a lot of foreclosures. That’s exactly how the world works. /sarc

    Actually, it probably did work that way back when property values were rising. But we’re long past that point.

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  22. pnwman

    RE: The Tim @ 17

    I wouldn’t get caught up in exclamations people make to emphasize their point – as in there has never been a worse time to buy (or rent) –

    Mike Whitney in general is (has been) talking about Shadow Inventory and the banks’ shell game. Of course it’s up to you to conclude if he has a legit point or not.

    see his article today.
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/30/reinflating-a-new-housing-bubble/

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