Case-Shiller: Home Prices Hit Predictable Spring Bounce

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to March data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.7% February to March.
Down 1.3% YOY.
Down 31.8% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices rose 0.1% from February to March and year-over-year prices were down 7.5%.

I stand by my prediction that we’ll likely hit year-over-year zero by April or May’s numbers.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

There are now seven cities in the positive year-over-year club: Phoenix, Minneapolis, Denver, Miami, Detroit, Dallas, and Charlotte. In March, more cities saw month-to-month increases than saw month-to-month decreases.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Seattle came in nearly at the top of the heap for month-over-month gains, out-performing the 20-city composite index by a wide margin.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In March, ten of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw increases) than Seattle (versus nine in February):

  • Phoenix at +6.1%
  • Minneapolis at +3.3%
  • Denver at +2.6%
  • Miami at +2.5%
  • Detroit at +2.3%
  • Dallas at +1.5%
  • Charlotte at +0.4%
  • Washington, DC at -0.6%
  • Tampa, FL at -1.0%
  • Boston at -1.0%

Nine cities were falling faster than Seattle as of March: Cleveland, San Diego, New York, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Las Vegas, and Atlanta.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through March.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the fifty-six months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 31.8%, up from last month’s post-peak low.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” So far: May 2004.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.29.2012)


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

53 comments:

  1. 1

    How can Detroit be still dropping so fast after they have dropped so far? Compare Phoenix.

    The last graph looks much more dramatic because the left index starts at 125.

  2. 2
    deejayoh says:

    Tim –
    Stan Humphries over at Zillow seems to have done a pretty good job of reverse engineering the Case-Shiller index using their data, and for March was spot on with his forecast of the numbers

    http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/2012/05/25/zillow-forecast-march-case-shiller-composite-20-expected-to-show-2-6-decline-from-one-year-ago/

    To your comment on prospects for Seattle in the April/May timeframe – it’s interesting to note that in the Zillow number for Seattle in their April report shows it down 4.5% year over year – far below breakeven. (Scroll down to the “Real Estate Market Report” section on the link below)

    http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/2012/05/25/home-values-continue-to-climb-in-april/

    I wonder if this view of the data is the same that they use to build the Case-Shiller index forecast, or if they do more massaging (e.g. remove certain properties)?

  3. 3
    Gracious Salmon says:

    Portland is interesting.

    Their population stopped growing.

    They should be following in the footsteps of Detroit soon.

  4. 4
    tim2 says:

    Hmmmmm,
    If I didn’t know better, I’d say this is evidence of ah, er, ah,
    bottom. Bottom boys. The Seattle bottom.

  5. 5
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Gracious Salmon @ 3

    ??? Zero growth but maintenance is different from having half your industry and population leave. Portland will be fine.

  6. 6
    deejayoh says:

    By Gracious Salmon @ 3:

    Portland is interesting.

    Their population stopped growing.

    They should be following in the footsteps of Detroit soon.

    no, actually – that statement is not even close to correct.

    Portland No. 22 in population growth
    Portland is among the fastest-growing cities among 366 metro areas analyzed by the Business Journal.

    According to an On Number analysis, Portland was No. 22 on the list, with an increase of 28,704 residents between July 2010 and July 2011. That’s the equivalent of adding about 81 new people every day.

  7. 7

    RE: Gracious Salmon @ 3

    Population Density Increases

    And subsequent lower wages with higher unemployment in a frozen labor force is good for Portland?

    Data proof please?

  8. 8

    RE: deejayoh @ 6

    I Agree

    With the world’s population heading for 7 billion, the coastal cities [like Portand] take most of the world’s population density increases.

  9. 9

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1

    Good Point Kary

    One thing is true for all the cities graphed. The linear regression analyses are all trending downward.

    Cities like Detroit have gotten a boost in the main headquarters college degreed jobs, RE:”Big Three” automotive sales increases lately….but a good percentage of the factory rats’ jobs have been outsourced or sent to other Mid-western states. That may likely explain the continued decline in Detroit.

  10. 10
    Question Mark says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1

    Detroit is in the unique position of not having participated in the bubble, but certainly has been hit hard during the post-bubble decline. I visited Detroit briefly in 2005, coincidentally near its peak Case Schiller index. If I had to choose one word to describe the area I was in at the time, it would be “abandoned.” Anecdotal as that may be, if it is any indication of demand for building/maintaining housing, it’s not surprising that such a surprising lack of demand would lead to significantly depressed values.

    Outside Detroit proper, I saw significant signs of wealth. As everywhere, it’s all about location, location, location I suppose.

  11. 11
    patient says:

    April 2011 CS is another 3% up. Possible since spring bouncy April will swap out winter gloomy January in the moving average but it’s still quite a tall order. I hope we get there to spice things up a bit. I can just imagine the propaganda machine that will ignite and the following buyer panic. Together with the cheapest money we’ve ever seen it should spark another bubble. Some entertainment while some of us wait for sustainable health to return to the economy and housing market.

  12. 12

    So what indicators should we look at to see if the housing price recovery is going to be V-shaped, U-shaped, or L-shaped? Is good old price:rent ratio the way to go?

    My personal hunch is that we’ll be bouncing along the bottom for a while. There just aren’t enough buyers; each year the college students are graduating with more and more debt, slowing household formation; infill & transit trends work to push demand down on the margins, etc. Also the psychological impact of the crash will deter a lot of folks from buying for a while. I have no idea how to quantify any of this, though :/.

  13. 13
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: Nicholas Beaudrot @ 12

    recovery Nicholas? excuse me…burrrrrp…We can hope for a recovery but will be VERY pleased for a flat line for many many years to come…We can also hope to win lottery or for hair growth but neither will arrive for me.

    Banks have unyielding amounts of properties to shed from its books and write down losses for at LEAST a decade…In the end they ALL will be coming back, priced at current market value, and all that really matters is what YOU do along the way.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/594061-optimists-on-housing-recovery-may-have-to-wait-another-decade-humpty-dumpty-vs-the-fed

  14. 14
    David Losh says:

    Case Schiller is made up of market places that have millions of individual housing units. You would have to compare each housing unit in any geographic area in determining value. That’s why many Real Estate agents talk about location, location, location.

    Housing is different from stocks, or bonds because within each area, geography, or portfolio there are millions of variables that can make one property value higher than another. There are individual variables such as the builder, amenities, emotional response, or proximity to any number of things, like amenities, job centers, or economic influences.

    There are parts, and properties in Seattle that will do well, and others that will tank. The Case Schiller Index can’t be predictive in the sense of an individual purchase.

  15. 15
    whatsmyname says:

    By Ray Pepper @ 13:

    RE: Nicholas Beaudrot @ 12

    ..In the end they ALL will be coming back, priced at current market value, and all that really matters is what YOU do along the way.

    OMG. Ray, what should I do?

  16. 16
    2kt says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 13

    Yeh, yeh, “they will all come back”. Banks have mostly written down bad loans and your unending supply story is a fairy tale. How are your Tacoma rentals doing? Do you own a vest, for your rent collection trips?

  17. 17
    deejayoh says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 13 – Sorry, but that article is lame. No serious analyst of the housing market would source charts from Dr. Housing Bubble. Unless that guy is Dr. Housing Bubble. Either way, IMO he’s a tool

  18. 18
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Question Mark @ 10

    Location? Detroit came first and took the prime location on the river. I think its demise has more to do with poor management, politics, and corruption. Especially since many areas outside the city limits seem to be doing OK, everything considered.

    The democrats, public service unions, and good old-fashioned corruption bled that city to death over time. Now they have nothing, and will soon be under a court appointed administrator. But it’s too late.

  19. 19
  20. 20
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 17

    and another: http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/07/real_estate/home_prices_depressed_for_decades/index.htm

    and yet another: http://reason.com/archives/2012/03/23/no-this-is-not-a-housing-recovery

    and 2kt I have no rentals in Tacoma…Just flips……I do have rentals in Gig Harbor/Port Orchard/and Olympia but unless your a fan of mobiles on their own land that bring VERY positive cash flow I will not discuss.

    BTW with all the bullets being sprayed all over Seattle and even at FolkLife you better keep that vest on in King County as well. You would find safety in the 98332 where I hibernate though and I STRONGLY suggest you experience it. No better place to live in the STATE!

  21. 21
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 20
    Dang it, Ray. It all depends on what I do along the way, but you still haven’t told me what I should do. Should I do what you seem to imply, and give the housing market a wide berth? Or should I do what you seem to be doing for yourself, and buy lots of houses?

  22. 22
    Scotsman says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 21

    Like a beautiful woman, or programming your vcr (what?)- it’s “complicated.” Go with your heart. And consider that the world may end in 6 months ;-)

  23. 23

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 20 – One advantage to making predictions that are 20 years out is no one will remember that you made the prediction.

    Seriously, people like to read things that fit with what they think. You’re carrying that to extreme levels with that piece.

  24. 24

    RE: Nicholas Beaudrot @ 12

    We’ve Been Listening to Peter Cry Housing Recovery “Wolf” for 5 Years Now

    After a while, we don’t believe Peter anymore.

  25. 25

    RE: 2kt @ 16

    I Served Eviction Papers For My Landlord Friend

    Three times in the last several years, after his unit was continuously trashed. He’s left his apartment vacant now, he tells me it saves him money.

  26. 26
    David Losh says:

    What is the average of wages, yearly wages, compared to the price of housing?

    It seems to me that the price of housing used to keep pace with yearly wages, that the price of housing was about one, and a half times yearly wages. Now it seems like the price of housing is multiples of yearly wages, and skewed to higher incomes rather than middle class, or lower income wages.

    If you make $100K it seems the cheapest thing in Seattle you can buy is $300K.

  27. 27
    ray pepper says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 21

    tell u what to do?

    What I can advise you to do (not knowing anything about you) is go see Cabin in the Woods. However, first have a little Cheesecake Factory and order the Tacquitos as an appetizer and then I strongly suggest the Caesar salad on the skinnylicious menu with chicken. Let them add the cracked pepper but no parmesan cheese because it smells like feet.

    After eating this meal EVERYTHING will become readily apparent and you will know the path you should take.

  28. 28
    MichaelB says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 13

    Great article Ray! On the money but that guy is an optimist… Where did the shadow inventory go anyway? Was it a figment of our collective imagination? Was it dissappeared by the government?

    If the shadow inventory is gone, bank stocks should be going up, up, up very soon as that was really all that was weighing them down… BUY on real estate and a solid BUY on bank stocks! And retail & services – through the roof! “Happy times are here again!”

    What’s $500k debt compared to $14 Trillion?

    Seriously, when you can buy a decent home in Everett for $150k, I think we’ll be close.

  29. 29
    MichaelB says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 23:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 20 – One advantage to making predictions that are 20 years out is no one will remember that you made the prediction.

    Seriously, people like to read things that fit with what they think. You’re carrying that to extreme levels with that piece.

    I prefer the predictions to your blather – at least they are interesting… but that’s the advantage of contributing 30% of all comments on Seattle Bubble, isn’t it Kary? Most people have forgotton 99% of what has been written by you.. It’s like photography, isn’t it Kary – You have to write a lot of comments to find a few jewels.

    But if it helps you loosen up the bowels – go for it!

  30. 30
    MichaelB says:

    RE: David Losh @ 14

    When the tide goes out, all the boats are lowered and we will see who is swimming naked.

  31. 31

    By MichaelB @ 29:

    I prefer the predictions to your blather – at least they are interesting..!

    Oh, look a shiny object! /MichaelB

    Just what I would expect from an 8 year old. You’re fascinated by nonsense and unable to understand intelligent points.

  32. 32
    deejayoh says:

    By Ray Pepper @ 19:

    RE: deejayoh @ 17

    OK heres another…http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2012/01/wells-fargo-housing-foreclosures-europe.html?page=all

    and another: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/26/AR2010012604115.html

    Well, Ray –

    Wells Fargo has completely changed their tune since that article in January. Just as of last week their economics group had this to say:

    Housing Recovery on Track, but Manufacturing Slows

    April housing data on new and existing home sales came in a bit better than expected, and home prices showed more signs of stabilizing, both welcome indications that the U.S. housing recovery remained on track to start the second quarter.

    Lots of people have changed their outlook in the last four months. Including both Karle Case and Robert Shiller. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/05/house-prices-from-bold-call-to.html

    and thanks for the link to the Washington Post article – from 2010. In other news, man lands on moon.

    If you want to make an argument, please at least take some pride in at least posting links that are current and to reputable sources. The schlocky approach doesn’t reflect well on your business that you like to promote so much here.

  33. 33
    wreckingbull says:

    By ray pepper @ 27:

    However, first have a little Cheesecake Factory and order the Tacquitos as an appetizer and then I strongly suggest the Caesar salad on the skinnylicious menu with chicken. Let them add the cracked pepper but no parmesan cheese because it smells like feet.

    After eating this meal EVERYTHING will become readily apparent and you will know the path you should take.

    It is all coming back (up)?

    Seriously Ray, go easy on that sub-prime digestive track of yours.

  34. 34
    ray pepper says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 32

    Hey Deejoyah!! Do I EVER promote my business? I could care less if EVERY BUBBLE HEAD uses RedFin or WaLAW….Forgodsakes Buyers use at least one of those and get some cabbage back if your Buying…But, if your selling SKIP US and use MLS 4 Owners if you have even 1/2 a brain..

    Hows that Deejoyah for chasing off would be Buyers and Sellers….Listen closely..I DO NOT CARE who BubbleHeads use…

    As for being a “schlocky approach” I apologize I didn’t check dates for the last 90 days. Here if this makes you happy: http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/time-to-buy-housing-recovery-is-under-way/52EDA9A3-4F24-4600-A369-B32AF30C37D0#!52EDA9A3-4F24-4600-A369-B32AF30C37D0

    There that should make you feel better…But, I’m here to tell you they are all coming back and the educated who are on the hamster wheel are the ones who will profit from this entire fiasco…All the rest will CRY and PRAY for a recovery that will not come and continue to point fingers at how unfair this debacle is.

  35. 35
    2kt says:

    RE: MichaelB @ 28

    You would be able to to buy $150K decent home in Everett when Navy closes the base and Boeing moves to SC.

  36. 36
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: ray pepper @ 27
    Ray,
    I’m looking for a clarification, really. You say that “In the end they ALL will be coming back, priced at current market value, and all that really matters is what YOU do along the way.”

    What does that mean? Or does it mean anything at all?

  37. 37
    MichaelB says:

    RE: 2kt @ 35

    What is Boeing paying these days? The Navy? Did some checking and the median houshold income in Everett is as follows:

    The median income for a household in the city was $40,100 and the median income for a family was $46,743. Males had a median income of $35,852 versus $28,841 for females. The per capita income for the city was $20,577. About 10.1% of families and 17% of the population were below the poverty line, including 16.1% of those under the age of 18 and 12.1% of those ages 65 and older.

    I simply multiply $50k by 3 to come up with the heuristically accurate number of $150k for a median home. Not sure about Boeing, but the Navy seems to be expanding. Big military presence can also have a negative impact on an economy… We’ll soon find out!

  38. 38
    ray pepper says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 36

    If you have to ask my friend then to YOU…it means nothing at all…

  39. 39

    By whatsmyname @ 36:

    RE: ray pepper @ 27
    Ray,
    I’m looking for a clarification, really. You say that “In the end they ALL will be coming back, priced at current market value, and all that really matters is what YOU do along the way.”

    What does that mean? Or does it mean anything at all?

    It apparently means that Ray apparently thinks we have hit bottom. Foreclosures will sell at their current values! Presumably non-REOs will be selling at higher values. ;-)

  40. 40
    Question Mark says:

    By Scotsman @ 18:

    RE: Question Mark @ 10

    Location? Detroit came first and took the prime location on the river. I think its demise has more to do with poor management, politics, and corruption. Especially since many areas outside the city limits seem to be doing OK, everything considered.

    So I’ve heard. By

    location, location, location

    I meant only the slice of current status quo I saw on my visit. So I suppose it is location in the context of individual self-interest and the larger community, to be more precise.

  41. 41
    Dirty Renter says:

    By whatsmyname @ 36:

    RE: ray pepper @ 27
    Ray,
    I’m looking for a clarification, really. You say that “In the end they ALL will be coming back, priced at current market value, and all that really matters is what YOU do along the way.”

    What does that mean? Or does it mean anything at all?

    I’ve also questioned the meaning of ‘underwater’, over the years. It seems to me that many of the studies do not differentiate between a $1M home having a $1,001,000 mortgage and a $200K home having a $500K mortgage.

  42. 42

    RE: Dirty Renter @ 41 – It’s usually not even clear they’re taking costs of sale into account.

  43. 43
    whatsmyname says:

    By ray pepper @ 38:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 36

    If you have to ask my friend then to YOU…it means nothing at all…

    I ask because in English it has no definite meaning. Perhaps if I spoke Mark… or conman?

  44. 44
    MichaelB says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 31

    Douche Bot

  45. 45

    RE: MichaelB @ 44 – I’ll take that to mean: “Yes I am 8 years old.”

    Go troll somewhere else. You’re posts are not useful. You have no particular insight or intelligence. You will not be missed.

  46. 46
    David Losh says:

    RE: Dirty Renter @ 41

    This is closer to the truth. The other thing about million dollar homes is that they sell for cash so when they sell it is just a loss of cash, no banks are involved. If a bank is involved the bank usually has required a larger down payment.

    In other words, just to be more clear, it’s a matter of declning equity. As the price of property continues to decline more people lose equity. First you lose the ability to refinance into these historically low interest rates, then you lose the ability to sell without bringing money to the table.

    A person could just go ahead and pay the house off, but they need the income to do that. We are seeing a loss of income, and employment so those properties will go back to the bank. In turn more equity is lost, more prices decline, more properties will be going back to the bank.

    When interest rates stop decliningwe will have a chance for housing prices to stabalize. We have a ways to go yet.

  47. 47
    Jonness says:

    By Ray Pepper @ 13:

    recovery Nicholas? excuse me…burrrrrp…We can hope for a recovery but will be VERY pleased for a flat line for many many years to come…We can also hope to win lottery or for hair growth but neither will arrive for me.

    You want your hair back? No problem. But it will cost you a pretty penny and a lot of hassle.

    http://www.hasci.com/uploads/downloads/dad01225-0ceb-4a30-90c4-771ed900f25aHSI%20-%20Artikel_Gho%20Neumann.pdf

  48. 48
    Jonness says:

    By whatsmyname @ 21:

    Dang it, Ray. It all depends on what I do along the way, but you still haven’t told me what I should do.

    He told you to buy mobile homes on land in smaller safer cities and rent them out. But I’m left wondering how many years a mobile can be rented before its value goes to $0?

  49. 49
    Jonness says:

    By ray pepper @ 34:

    But, I’m here to tell you they are all coming back and the educated who are on the hamster wheel are the ones who will profit from this entire fiasco…All the rest will CRY and PRAY for a recovery that will not come and continue to point fingers at how unfair this debacle is.

    There are way too many bubbleheads who are too busy reveling in their once-per-year Spring bounce to have noticed the horrific unemployment print this month, and the horrific lowered adjustment to last month’s numbers. On top of that, they’ve mistaken low supply brought on by massive amounts of would-be sellers being underwater for “market strength.” And to sweeten the deal, they’ve failed to notice that the 10-year yield has hit a new all-time low. They think that free and easy money is a sign of market health. Unfortunately, they can’t understand that a worsening liquidity trap equates to horrible economic news.

    So why bother educating this giddy segment of the bubbleheads? Perhaps it’s better to go mum and let them revel in their annual Spring bounce. After all, most of them will be filing for bankruptcy within 5 years anyways. So let them party before they puke. As they say, “ignorance is bliss.”

    There are about 5 of us left who understand the horrific state of the global economy. The rest are stuck inside of a “Spring bounce” box and are unable to open the lid. They feel as safe, warm, and comfortable inside there as an ostrich does when it buries its head into the sand.

    There is nothing you can do or say to make them open the lid of their box. But you can continue to keep your eyes open and learn as much as you can in order to profit off of what is occurring around you.

  50. 50
    Jonness says:

    By Dirty Renter @ 41:

    I’ve also questioned the meaning of ‘underwater’, over the years. It seems to me that many of the studies do not differentiate between a $1M home having a $1,001,000 mortgage and a $200K home having a $500K mortgage.

    For some things, it doesn’t matter. For instance, as it relates to the current low supply of homes for sale, in order to be able to put your home on the market and not bring cash to the table, you need about a 10% equity stake.

    As for the guy with the $1M home with a $1,001,000 mortgage. It doesn’t sound all that bad until you factor in the $300K he put down and subsequently lost in rapid fashion.

  51. 51

    By Jonness @ 49:

    By ray pepper @ 34:

    But, I’m here to tell you they are all coming back and the educated who are on the hamster wheel are the ones who will profit from this entire fiasco…All the rest will CRY and PRAY for a recovery that will not come and continue to point fingers at how unfair this debacle is.

    There are way too many bubbleheads who are too busy reveling in their once-per-year Spring bounce to have noticed the horrific unemployment print this month, and the horrific lowered adjustment to last month’s numbers. On top of that, they’ve mistaken low supply brought on by massive amounts of would-be sellers being underwater for “market strength.” And to sweeten the deal, they’ve failed to notice that the 10-year yield has hit a new all-time low. They think that free and easy money is a sign of market health. Unfortunately, they can’t understand that a worsening liquidity trap equates to horrible economic news.

    Some people are pessimistic and some optimistic. Things looked really bad in early 2009 too, but those buying into the stock market back then did rather well. Today some people actually think Romney has a good chance of being elected, even absent more economic news like came out this week. That’s being optimistic!

    Clearly there are a lot of things that look bad with the economy. Those things could result in total economic disaster or they could all work themselves out so that things will return back to “normal.” Chances are it will be somewhere in-between.

    Also, don’t forget that we’re talking about real estate here, and like gold and government bonds, real estate can be part of a flight to safety.

  52. 52
    whatsmyname says:

    By Jonness @ 48:

    By whatsmyname @ 21:

    Dang it, Ray. It all depends on what I do along the way, but you still haven’t told me what I should do.

    He told you to buy mobile homes on land in smaller safer cities and rent them out. But I’m left wondering how many years a mobile can be rented before its value goes to $0?

    Well, it’s no wonder he didn’t want to clarify. Ray, I have a great entertainment for you. Canadian television: “Trailer Park Boys”. Perfect after a big meal at the Claim Jumper.

  53. 53
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Jonness @ 49 – You sure say “horrific” a lot. Are you sure you’re not related to SWE?

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