Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to March data, Seattle-area home prices were:
Up 1.7% February to March.
Down 1.3% YOY.
Down 31.8% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices rose 0.1% from February to March and year-over-year prices were down 7.5%.
I stand by my prediction that we’ll likely hit year-over-year zero by April or May’s numbers.
Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):
There are now seven cities in the positive year-over-year club: Phoenix, Minneapolis, Denver, Miami, Detroit, Dallas, and Charlotte. In March, more cities saw month-to-month increases than saw month-to-month decreases.
Seattle came in nearly at the top of the heap for month-over-month gains, out-performing the 20-city composite index by a wide margin.
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.
In March, ten of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw increases) than Seattle (versus nine in February):
- Phoenix at +6.1%
- Minneapolis at +3.3%
- Denver at +2.6%
- Miami at +2.5%
- Detroit at +2.3%
- Dallas at +1.5%
- Charlotte at +0.4%
- Washington, DC at -0.6%
- Tampa, FL at -1.0%
- Boston at -1.0%
Nine cities were falling faster than Seattle as of March: Cleveland, San Diego, New York, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Las Vegas, and Atlanta.
Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through March.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the fifty-six months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 31.8%, up from last month’s post-peak low.
Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” So far: May 2004.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.29.2012)