Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

13 responses to “June Stats Preview: Sales Peak Edition”

  1. Kary L. Krismer

    Short sale and REO closings are down again, so expect the median to again be up–significantly.

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  2. corndogs

    King County:
    Regarding trustee sale notices, if you’ve ever been to the county steps and witnessed a trustee sale, you’ll notice a lot of these get cancelled and come up again and again. A small percentage does get bought up by investors..but a lot of these never get to market because they get resolved. Also, many get reported more than once.

    As the housing inventory has dried up, the shape of the mean list price curve has become a pretty good predictor of the shape of the mean sale price curve two months out. I’m looking at Redfin $/sq ft at the county level for Pierce, King, Snohomish. Based on this, the window looking fwd is two more months of fairly steep increases in mean sale prices to levels exceeding the 2010 peak. Without the alleged shadow inventory coming on strong over the winter this upward trend will continue. Where’s the shadow inventory?

    Of 13,750 listings in King County, over 1/2 are pending sale. There are only 2,013 (14%) on the market more than 90 days without an offer pending. There are only 31 (.2%) bank owned properties on the market more than 90 days without a pending offer. There are only 454 (3.3%) short sales on the market more than 90 days without an offer.

    The total unsold bank inventory on the market is about $46M… or about 1.9% of the 2.3Billion on the market…. because the mean price of a bank owned home is only about $170K… this is peanuts.

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  3. Rus

    ” At this rate it looks like January may end up being the high point for inventory this year, which would just be weird.”

    January was the high point for Snohomish in 2011. So not unprecedented.

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  4. Kary L. Krismer

    By corndogs @ 2:

    King County:
    Regarding trustee sale notices, if you’ve ever been to the county steps and witnessed a trustee sale, you’ll notice a lot of these get cancelled and come up again and again. .

    That would often be because the owner is trying to accomplish something, and requesting the continuances. The bank/trustee doesn’t have to give the continuances, but they often will. When they do, it might be for a week at a time, even if they know whatever it is will take a month.

    I’ve probably been somehow involved with hundreds of continuances over the years.

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  5. Scotsman

    The bubble is back! $350K for a triple-wide on less than an acre- in a dark hole- out in the boonies. But at least you won’t be a stink’n renter any more . Buy it now, default after a year, let Obama and his banker friends pay your housing expenses (free!) for a year or more. That’s the way you work it.

    Buy now, or be priced out forever.

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Issaquah/33306-SE-124th-St-98027/home/2088165

    P.S. I know this house- the photo they show-”light and bright”- has happened only twice in the last three months, and never happens November through February.

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  6. corndogs

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4 – right but there is a legal requirement to publicly post a notice of trustee sale, so if the same property ends up scheduled at 3 sales because of last minute delays, I think there’d be three notices for the same property posted over time.. which would over report the actual numbers of foreclosures….. I don’t know if Tims data source accounts for that. It probably doesn’t matter anyway, if you’re just interested in deltas month/month year/year..

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  7. Kary L. Krismer

    By corndogs @ 6:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4 – right but there is a legal requirement to publicly post a notice of trustee sale, so if the same property ends up scheduled at 3 sales because of last minute delays, I think there’d be three notices for the same property posted over time.. ..

    I don’t process foreclosures, but I think all that is required is announcing the new sale time at the time of the original (or continued) sale, and sending notice of that continuance to certain parties by mail. RCW 61.24.040(6). So yes, the homeowner will get a new notice mailed, but the property won’t be re-posted and I don’t think that a new notice is recorded with the county recorder.

    Back when I was practicing law the only thing required was the new date to be announced at the time of the sale. Homeowners weren’t getting notice of the new date, and could have their house be foreclosed without realizing it. It wasn’t seen as a due process violation because it’s not state action.

    Still, some properties may have more than one NTS recorded against it. For example, maybe a first and second both start foreclosure actions. Or maybe there was a defect in one of the notices which gets corrected. Some stats try to back those out by tracking properties, and some don’t.

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  8. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Scotsman @ 5 – Active listings are not proof of anything.

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  9. Dave0

    First sentance of the post: “Granted, I missed the pre-NWMLS stats window, but I’d still like to post the stats preview charts for May.”

    Really? :)

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  10. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Dave0 @ 9 – Copying and pasting is really a problem on this site! ;-)

    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/06/06/may-stats-preview-not-really-a-preview-edition/

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  11. corndogs

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7 – Yeah, I don’t know how they are counting the notices. A ‘notice’ of trustee sale could refer to public notice required to be posted in a public newspaper (or other publication) or the actual notice sent to the home owner.

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  12. Seattle Bubble • Foreclosures Keep Creeping Back Up

    [...] time once again to expand on our preview of foreclosure activity with a more detailed look at June’s stats in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First up, [...]

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