June Stats Preview: Sales Peak Edition

Time to take a look at the stats preview for June’s data. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

First up, total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales hit their highest point since August 2007, just one month after the price peak in King County.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Just like last month, more modest gains in Snohomoish County, increasing month-over-month and year-over-year, but not even hitting a two-year high.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Both counties ticked up again month to month, but still came in lower than a year ago. At the current pace it looks like both King and Snohomish will get back to year-over-year gains by September.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Another slight uptick, but still well below a year ago.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

A tiny boost in inventory in both King and Snohomish Counties. At this rate it looks like January may end up being the high point for inventory this year, which would just be weird.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

13 comments:

  1. 1

    Short sale and REO closings are down again, so expect the median to again be up–significantly.

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  2. 2
    corndogs says:

    King County:
    Regarding trustee sale notices, if you’ve ever been to the county steps and witnessed a trustee sale, you’ll notice a lot of these get cancelled and come up again and again. A small percentage does get bought up by investors..but a lot of these never get to market because they get resolved. Also, many get reported more than once.

    As the housing inventory has dried up, the shape of the mean list price curve has become a pretty good predictor of the shape of the mean sale price curve two months out. I’m looking at Redfin $/sq ft at the county level for Pierce, King, Snohomish. Based on this, the window looking fwd is two more months of fairly steep increases in mean sale prices to levels exceeding the 2010 peak. Without the alleged shadow inventory coming on strong over the winter this upward trend will continue. Where’s the shadow inventory?

    Of 13,750 listings in King County, over 1/2 are pending sale. There are only 2,013 (14%) on the market more than 90 days without an offer pending. There are only 31 (.2%) bank owned properties on the market more than 90 days without a pending offer. There are only 454 (3.3%) short sales on the market more than 90 days without an offer.

    The total unsold bank inventory on the market is about $46M… or about 1.9% of the 2.3Billion on the market…. because the mean price of a bank owned home is only about $170K… this is peanuts.

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  3. 3
    Rus says:

    ” At this rate it looks like January may end up being the high point for inventory this year, which would just be weird.”

    January was the high point for Snohomish in 2011. So not unprecedented.

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  4. 4

    By corndogs @ 2:

    King County:
    Regarding trustee sale notices, if you’ve ever been to the county steps and witnessed a trustee sale, you’ll notice a lot of these get cancelled and come up again and again. .

    That would often be because the owner is trying to accomplish something, and requesting the continuances. The bank/trustee doesn’t have to give the continuances, but they often will. When they do, it might be for a week at a time, even if they know whatever it is will take a month.

    I’ve probably been somehow involved with hundreds of continuances over the years.

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  5. 5
    Scotsman says:

    The bubble is back! $350K for a triple-wide on less than an acre- in a dark hole- out in the boonies. But at least you won’t be a stink’n renter any more . Buy it now, default after a year, let Obama and his banker friends pay your housing expenses (free!) for a year or more. That’s the way you work it.

    Buy now, or be priced out forever.

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Issaquah/33306-SE-124th-St-98027/home/2088165

    P.S. I know this house- the photo they show-“light and bright”- has happened only twice in the last three months, and never happens November through February.

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  6. 6
    corndogs says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4 – right but there is a legal requirement to publicly post a notice of trustee sale, so if the same property ends up scheduled at 3 sales because of last minute delays, I think there’d be three notices for the same property posted over time.. which would over report the actual numbers of foreclosures….. I don’t know if Tims data source accounts for that. It probably doesn’t matter anyway, if you’re just interested in deltas month/month year/year..

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  7. 7

    By corndogs @ 6:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4 – right but there is a legal requirement to publicly post a notice of trustee sale, so if the same property ends up scheduled at 3 sales because of last minute delays, I think there’d be three notices for the same property posted over time.. ..

    I don’t process foreclosures, but I think all that is required is announcing the new sale time at the time of the original (or continued) sale, and sending notice of that continuance to certain parties by mail. RCW 61.24.040(6). So yes, the homeowner will get a new notice mailed, but the property won’t be re-posted and I don’t think that a new notice is recorded with the county recorder.

    Back when I was practicing law the only thing required was the new date to be announced at the time of the sale. Homeowners weren’t getting notice of the new date, and could have their house be foreclosed without realizing it. It wasn’t seen as a due process violation because it’s not state action.

    Still, some properties may have more than one NTS recorded against it. For example, maybe a first and second both start foreclosure actions. Or maybe there was a defect in one of the notices which gets corrected. Some stats try to back those out by tracking properties, and some don’t.

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  8. 8

    RE: Scotsman @ 5 – Active listings are not proof of anything.

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  9. 9
    Dave0 says:

    First sentance of the post: “Granted, I missed the pre-NWMLS stats window, but I’d still like to post the stats preview charts for May.”

    Really? :)

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  10. 10

    RE: Dave0 @ 9 – Copying and pasting is really a problem on this site! ;-)

    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/06/06/may-stats-preview-not-really-a-preview-edition/

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  11. 11
    The Tim says:

    RE: Dave0 @ 9 – Argh. Copy/paste fail. Fixed.

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  12. 12
    corndogs says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7 – Yeah, I don’t know how they are counting the notices. A ‘notice’ of trustee sale could refer to public notice required to be posted in a public newspaper (or other publication) or the actual notice sent to the home owner.

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  13. 13

    […] time once again to expand on our preview of foreclosure activity with a more detailed look at June’s stats in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. First up, […]

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