June Case-Shiller Potpourri

Before we put away the Case-Shiller data for another month, let’s check in on a few of our alternative charts.

First up, let’s take a look at the twenty-city month-over-month scorecard. Here’s the original post introducing this chart if you’d like more details.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: # of Cities Experiencing MoM Gains, Losses

I think it’s worth noting that June marks the first time since July 2005 that all twenty Case-Shiller cities were in the black for two months in a row.

Next up, the second derivative. For an introduction to this particular view, hit the original post from March.

Seattle Case-Shiller HPI 1st & 2nd Derivatives

The increasing trend that began in early 2011 is still in effect here in Seattle. As of June 18 cities has positive second derivatives, for the fourth month in a row:

Number of Cities Experiencing 2nd Derivative (YoYoM) Gains, Losses

Which two cities fell short has changed each of the last four months. In June it was Charlotte and Dallas. Outside of the period of time when the homebuyer tax credit was screwing with the market this is actually the strongest performance this chart has seen since before 2000.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

2 comments:

  1. 1
    David Losh says:

    There was a comment from some one who was looking at homes who mentioned they made an offer on a property bought in 2011, had a little fixing, and sold for more than it was bought for.

    That is the only way to tell if a property is in the “black.” It would need to sell for more than what was paid.

    We have a real problem right now because crappy little houses are selling for premium dollars, especially in that sweet spot range of $450K to $650K. There is no way many of these properties will sell for more. There’s no float, no margin, no equity beyond the crap box it is.

    Now in the million dollar range there are some bargains.

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  2. 2
    NoahFect says:

    I’d ask for the third derivative, too, but I don’t want to sound like a jerk…

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