Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $256,269 (up 1.9%)
- Mid Tier: $256,269 – $409,553
- Hi Tier: > $409,553 (up 2.1%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through June 2012.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
All three tiers keep gaining ground. Between June and July, the low tier rose 2.5%, the middle tier increased 1.3%, and the high tier gained 1.4%.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through July 2012.
The low tier is still the only one not yet back in black. Given the recent trend it would not be surprising to see it hit that point with next month’s data. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of July – Low: -1.8%, Med: +1.7%, Hi: +4.1%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
Current standing is 40.1% off peak for the low tier, 29.7% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.4% off peak for the high tier.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 09.25.2012)
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I read that nationally, the Case Schiller data showed the largest gains year over year happened in the low tier. I realize that every market is different, but why is it that the low tier is doing better nationally than locally? Are we just months behind? Or is the low tier here in a more permanent funk as a result of overbuilding?
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 1 –
I Agree Ira
I was asked if I supported a new unit constructed in my neighborhood, environmental town meeting type input from voters.
I told them why are we authorizing more building in SE King County when YOY price decreases are about 20% per a recent Seattle Times article. BTW, I just received my SE King County property tax assessment and I’m smiling. My home and land are assessed 38% lower than last year. I get to break out the long awaited property tax mitigation champaign :-)
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RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – Your taxes will remain the same. What will you be celebrating? Look into how property taxes are levied….. you’ll stop smiling.
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The low tier is $250k and below? Does that even buy an empty lot in Seattle?
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RE: Nick @ 4 – CS Seattle includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
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By wreckingbull @ 5:
Ah, well that explains things. The jobs are in the city. Nobody is getting a relo package with a sign-on bonus and home-buying assistance to move to the outskirts.
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By Nick @ 4:
As mentioned, Case-Shiller is the tri-county area, not just Seattle. Generally speaking, King County is more expensive than Pierce or Snohomish, and you don’t have to go that far out in King County to find a house under $250,000. A lot of houses in Kent and Renton are under $250,000.
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By Nick @ 6:
This is yet another example of someone here thinking that everyone else thinks just like them.
There are people who you couldn’t pay to live within the city limits of Seattle. True a lot of people want to live there, but not everyone.
Even if you widen the area to say Kirkland and Bellevue, there would still be people who wouldn’t want to live in any of those three cities. Some people like it rural. Some people like it very rural.
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RE: corndogs @ 3 – Certainly the case in Sam Amish.
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Just a guess – but perhaps those that buy homes under $250,000 have jobs that are less stable than those who buy houses in the $600,000 range. Unstable income + lower income+ lower savings=inability to borrow more than $250K. Therefore less demand for homes under $250,000.
Just a guess.
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