Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

58 responses to “Enjoy Seattle Bubble? Support this Site!”

  1. kfhoz

    Rough timing – I am getting bombarded with requests for political contributions and it is membership week for both KEXP and KUOW listener supported radio stations.

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  2. Blurtman

    Tim,

    Have you also considered a Seattle Bubble get together? For example, at a local bar or perhaps Kary’s megamansion? I do not doubt that the RE agents would be on board. As many of us are anonymous, it can be interesting to try to match up faces to on line personas. Perhaps the event could also be used to raise funds as well.

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  3. ray pepper

    RE: Blurtman @ 2 – We did this already Blurtman. The Bubbleheads are people much better left in the shadows..One Bubblehead brushed up against my groin at the last event and I felt violated.

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  4. ray pepper

    I have something much better then money for you Tim. ADVICE from Fat Jesus..Listen and learn: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4A1o3ZCHzE

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  5. David Losh

    RE: ray pepper @ 4

    Thanks for the PayPal.

    Ray, I’ll match your contribution up to $20. Come on, you’ve made a ton of dough from this site.

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  6. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blurtman @ 2 – Megamansion? My house is the smallest on the street. With the daughter and MIL now moved out it is bigger than we need, but the cats like their space.

    Why no t-shirts? I’m sure they’d be popular with real estate agents! ;-)

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  7. wreckingbull

    RE: Blurtman @ 2 – We did have one a while back, although I think your idea of combining fundraising with a get-together has merit. If there is one lesson I have learned from my volunteering at non-profits, it is that wallets open up after a few stiff drinks. We might need to hire a few off-duty SPD officers so that Losh and Kary can be bounced after the inevitable brawl starts.

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  8. Kary L. Krismer

    Thanks for allowing Google Wallet. Nice to try it out with 2-step authentication.

    For others, Dropbox now has 2-step authentication also. Highly recommended.

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  9. Blurtman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6 – I would like to order a large Seattle Bubble/Kill the Bankers in black, please.

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  10. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: wreckingbull @ 7
    A fundraiser and get together combo has great merit, and we’re long overdue for a get together. We could have a betting pool for the Kary-Losh fisticuffs before the cops come, with Seattle Bubble taking a 6% commission on all bets placed.

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  11. Pegasus

    I left a Benjamin on your doorstep but I think those guys that hide in the bushes outside your residence took it.

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  12. softwarengineer

    RE: kfhoz @ 1

    So Am I

    I used to collect for United Way and learned right off, there’s many folks that are already tithing [or equivalent] to their own non-profit agencies…..probably giving far more to charities than most of us….so not only did I keep it confidential who gave what and to who, I honestly didn’t care.

    Its also a personal information type of thing, like SSNs and credit card numbers….another reason to keep neutral on who gave what and to whom.

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  13. David Losh

    RE: David Losh @ 5

    Wait a minute. Why did the tip jar jump to $25 from $10?

    OK Ray, I’ll match your $25 donation.

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  14. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 13:

    RE: David Losh @ 5 – Wait a minute. Why did the tip jar jump to $25 from $10?.

    Inflation.

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  15. ARDELL

    I’ll pay $100 to watch a 30 minute debate (in person, not a video) between Kary and Losh. Seriously…not kidding. If I get to sit next to Ray during the debate, I’ll up that to $150.

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  16. Kary L. Krismer

    By ARDELL @ 15:

    I’ll pay $100 to watch a 30 minute debate (in person, not a video) between Kary and Losh..

    What would be the point? Losh would pull two phantom pieces of information out of thin air, like he did in discussing Tim’s property in the Friday Flashback thread. That’s not the type of thing you can discredit in a debate, because you need access to the real information. But assuming I had the real information on his phantom claims, and conclusively demonstrated his lack of understanding, Losh would just claim that was “no real information” like he did in that thread.

    I’d rather debate someone with some ability and understanding, like maybe Pegasus or several others here.

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  17. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 17

    The point would be Ray and I would have a fantastic time regardless of the outcome of the debate. Plus I have already met Ira and Ray and David in person…you are the “phantom” of the pack.

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  18. SkiAddict

    Random Question… Why is the tab logo/icon for Seattle Bubble a ‘rearing horse’? (at least that is what it looks like to me).

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  19. wreckingbull

    RE: ARDELL @ 18 – I recall that The Tim and Grumpy Larry Cragun finally met at some RE blogger event. There was some photo posted here or on raincity. I would have liked to witness that.

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  20. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: SkiAddict @ 19 – It’s a pink pony.

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  21. Pegasus

    RE: ARDELL @ 15 – Calm down. That comment that Ray made about someone rubbing up against him has gotten you all excited. Truth be told, it was me and Ray asked for my phone number. His wife must have found it and she put the kibash on Ray attending any more Bubblehead parties.

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  22. David Losh

    RE: The Tim @ 16

    That was a good move. $10 seemed a little cheap.

    OK Ray, you can’t hide forever, and I won’t forget that out of the $56K you have made off of this site you wouldn’t get off of $25.

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  23. David Losh

    RE: ARDELL @ 15

    Ray is a very good looking fellow.

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  24. David Losh

    RE: The Tim @ 26

    Done.

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  25. wreckingbull

    RE: The Tim @ 23 – I’m 99% certain. Maybe it was just individual pics from the same event. I’ll have to try to find the post. I just recall thinking “ooooh AWKWAAARRRRD….” when I saw the pic(s).

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  26. Jesse

    As someone who runs a website, I can tell you that if you don’t want to drop any cash, another way you can contribute is to support the advertisers here.

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  27. ray pepper

    RE: The Tim @ 26 – Yes, its true I dropped a big load of billage this morning to keep the Bubble alive. Yes, its true I’m very handsome and can prove it (However I apologize I just came from bball practice) : http://www.komonews.com/news/local/87033942.html?tab=video&c=y . Yes, its true Pegasus rubbed up against me and I liked it. Yes, its true I’m still shocked (Z) is holding 40.00 pps with a PE of 400+…Nothing but the TRUTH is spoken here at The Bubble!

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  28. ray pepper

    RE: Jesse @ 29 – u must be joking…However, I do look at the Seattle Times on line…If thats considered supporting then IM ALL IN BABY!

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  29. ARDELL

    RE: wreckingbull @ 28

    It was at my house in July of 2007.

    https://www.realtown.com/Ardell/blog/miscellaneous/blog-tour-usa-seattle

    I added a 2nd photo for you. A couple of blogging friends of mine from NYC were traveling around the Country in that “Blog Tour USA” van and I hosted a party so they could meet some Seattle Bloggers before we all went to San Francisco where I was speaking at Inman Connect along with many of the people at the party.

    In the van photo taken in front of my house, I am the one in front with the red cup, Larry is behind me and Tim is 2nd from the left in the back row. The photo I added from in the house, Tim is front and center in the pink shirt and Larry is hidden behind Robbie Paplin and is talking to Matt Heaton on the far right.

    You are probably correct that it may have been a bit awkward for me to invite Tim back then, but he was gracious to come with his lovely wife and if there was tension between Larry and Tim, I didn’t notice. I thought Marlow Harris was going to be the one to up and leave when Tim walked in. :)

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  30. Jonness

    RE: ARDELL @ 15 – Set up the debate and let’s get this ball rolling. We need to allow any speaker to get up there and give a 10-minute power-point presentation on any non-RE sales subject that is relevant to discussions at this website. Also, there should be multiple debates that take place throughout the course of the evening. There needs to be beer present along with catered food, and we should charge an entry fee to cover the costs of renting the hall and bringing in the beer and food. Extra donations to Tim are strictly voluntary. Reservations can be purchased on this website, and the event only takes place if we reach the agreed upon minimum.

    Certain posters we haven’t heard from for a while absolutely must be there, such as sniglet and eluha(sp?).

    We also need to bring in the theorists to present their view of the current and future local housing market, such as Steve Tytler.

    Most RE agents on this website will be expected to present something, if nothing other than a short speech. Non-RE members will hopefully give a talk on their viewpoints as well. Charts, graphs, stage props, and jokes that accompany the presentations are encouraged.

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  31. ARDELL

    RE: Jonness @ 33

    No h. Eleua. I used to call him…fondly…”E”.

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  32. Jonness

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 17:

    By ARDELL @ 15:
    I’ll pay $100 to watch a 30 minute debate (in person, not a video) between Kary and Losh..

    I’d rather debate someone with some ability and understanding, like maybe Pegasus or several others here.

    As part of the deal, you get to choose who you debate with and the topic of debate (as long as you both agree). This will be presented on this website ahead of time so that speakers have a chance to pre-prepare). Audience members will have a chance to ask the speakers questions at the end of each debate.

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  33. wreckingbull

    RE: Jonness @ 33 – Will there be a dunk tank? If so, I’m in.

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  34. David Losh

    RE: Jonness @ 33

    Sniglet, Michael Surkan, was putting together some great get togethers for Linked In Seattle. Maybe we could get him to help organize something for the Bubble.

    He got some sponsors, and had a couple of drawings during the events. I don’t think presentations work, because once people start drinking nobody cares.

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  35. David Losh

    RE: David Losh @ 37

    I sent Michael a message, and maybe he’ll respond. If we set something up for the first of November we could probably get a good crowd if we all used our networks to invite people. It would also increase the number of people who would look at the site.

    People could wear name tags or not the same as they do here. I personally like the Third Place Books location because the price is right, and it is big, maybe something more central like downtown, or even South of downtown.

    It could be like an after work get together. The great part is if you wanted to have visuals, like charts, and graphs people could respond to those either here by a blog post, or by e-mail to an e-mail address dedicated to the event.

    If you really wanted to have a presentation it should be by a panel, with sever time limits.

    You could also do a seperate fund raiser to get the event set up where ever you choose. Pick a charity for the risidual funds to go after expenses, like Tent City, or NicklesVille.

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  36. Blurtman

    RE: David Losh @ 38 – Keep in mind the alchohol requirement. Wine bar or brew pub for example, and not Sip.

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  37. ARDELL

    What I thought would be fun would be to have it in one of my new vacant listings and everyone could put their two cents in about the house. :) Then Kary and David could “debate” the “value” of it and what someone should pay for it and what it does and doesn’t need.

    BUT while I was working on getting it ready for market today, a neighbor came over who wanted to buy it for his daughter and made a pretty good offer on it. Still, I like the concept of a keg party at a house so we can talk about “house stuff” vs “data” for a change.

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  38. Ira Sacharoff

    By ARDELL @ 40:

    What I thought would be fun would be to have it in one of my new vacant listings and everyone could put their two cents in about the house. :) Then Kary and David could “debate” the “value” of it and what someone should pay for it and what it does and doesn’t need.

    BUT while I was working on getting it ready for market today, a neighbor came over who wanted to buy it for his daughter and made a pretty good offer on it. Still, I like the concept of a keg party at a house so we can talk about “house stuff” vs “data” for a change.

    It’s a terrific idea, Ardell. But don’t tell the client that we’ve having a kegger at their house that’s vacant. They might not understand. But if anybody could convince people that broken beer bottles enhance the value of a house, it’d be you.

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  39. Jesse

    RE: ray pepper @ 31 – Some clicks on my site are worth $1.50 or so. I bet they’re even higher here since it’s more of a commodity-based subject. I’m using adwords though, so maybe the ads running here are not based on clickthrough.

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  40. Scotsman

    Given the value of the data presented, I’ve donated- but the potential is there for even more:

    Watching Ray down a double order of cheesy-fries from Claim Jumper- $50
    Watching Kary and Ardell hug and hold hands while Ardell yells “Bottom! Bottom!”- $75
    pfffft banned for unmitigated idiocy and the mindless spewing of partisan propaganda- $200
    (no- wait, he’ll be gone after election day)

    Party like it’s 1999! Real estate only goes up!

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  41. ARDELL

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 41

    Well of course I’d tell my client and she would likely be thrilled to say yes…but I don’t understand how a keg generates broken glass. But then I’m not much of a beer drinker and have actually never been to “a keg party” in my 58 years. Scotch was my drink as a banker. I thought the point of a Keg was to only have disposable paper cups?

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  42. Pegasus

    Sorry Ardell but the point of a kegger is to get massively drunk, engage in sordid sexual relations and to puke uncontrollably, not necessarily in that order. It isn’t about drinking from a disposable paper cup, however, it might be about a disposable diaper. I am sure your “client” will be “thrilled” if you invite her.

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  43. David Losh

    RE: Blurtman @ 39

    At this point hard liquor would need to be available.

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  44. 2kt

    RE: Jonness @ 33

    Certain posters may have been unwell for a while. The events of this year may have pushed Eluea over the edge.

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  45. ARDELL

    RE: Pegasus @ 45

    I haven’t been to a Bubble event. I guess I assumed it would be like the party I had that The Tim attended noted in the link above in response to Wreckinbull. Civilized with a lot of intelligent discourse. No???

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  46. ray pepper

    I just say we all meet at The Redmond Ranch. I have friends that go there and I’m sure they will show all you Bubbleheads around at the meet and greet.

    http://www.eros-events.org/

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  47. Jonness

    By ARDELL @ 48:

    RE: Pegasus @ 45

    I haven’t been to a Bubble event. I guess I assumed it would be like the party I had that The Tim attended noted in the link above in response to Wreckinbull. Civilized with a lot of intelligent discourse. No???

    I think the main difference between your party and a bubblehead party is the people at your party were wearing clothes.

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  48. Pegasus

    RE: Jonness @ 51 – I am thinking jello wrestling would better than debates or presentations.

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  49. David Losh

    RE: Pegasus @ 52

    You, and Ray Pepper?

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  50. Blurtman

    RE: Pegasus @ 52 – Presidential?

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  51. ARDELL

    RE: The Tim @ 50

    Exactly at the peak. But it was one hell of a party in San Francisco immediately after that night. The market turned while we were partying in San Francisco from July 31 to August 3rd. The balloons and confetti turned from multi-colored to black in mid air. :)

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  52. wreckingbull

    RE: ARDELL @ 55 – While you were rather bullish at the time, you also remained respectful to all of us. I don’t need to name those who were not, but now they all seem pretty laughable and obviously have receded from the blogging limelight. I can recall accusations of ‘scabs’, ‘crybabies’, and ‘living in mamma’s basement’

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  53. ARDELL

    RE: wreckingbull @ 56

    I wasn’t really bullish…in fact from 8/3/2007 through 2/9/2009 I pretty much stepped out of the game except to help people sell but not to buy, unless they were also selling at the same time and couldn’t rent in between. I told many people to rent and those people have since bought a home with me after 2/2009.

    Without people like Eleua I would not likely have been steadfast in that given I needed to sell my own home to maintain my integrity to my clients. But it was worth it. I don’t regret it. Getting a little of the Pink (Pony) Kool Aid kicked out of me was very helpful, and those who maintained a respectful discourse are to this day much appreciated.

    I may not have shown everything in my writings…but clearly did in the way I handled my actions with my clients, at great financial strain to myself. It all worked out well…eventually. :)

    The most important thing someone said to me over on RCG in one of the comments was “Ardell…a 30 year mortgage? What are thinking? You’re 55 years old!!!” God Bless that man or woman. :)

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  54. jesus christ

    can I send a contribution via snail mail? PO Box or address?

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