October 2012 Seattle Bubble Recap

Time for another monthly recap, where we wrap up the month and highlight the major posts of the month that just ended in a single place. The purpose of this series is to get a feel for how a month went, and catch up if you missed something.

I’m going to try a different format this month since this is still a series I am experimenting with. Let me know what you think of the new format and the concept in general as a recurring monthly feature.

Statistics and Data

Reader Questions

Commentary, Etc.

I would also like to make another request that you consider donating some money to help the two young children of the family that I bought my home from, whose father died two months ago. Thank you.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

11 comments:

  1. 1
    softwarengineer says:

    Is 158K New Jobs in October a Good Economic Sign

    The day to day stock market seems to think it is, rising up before tomorrow’s job report is published.

    Let me talk pragmatic about “seasonal hiring” for 2012. We need 626K “seasonal hiring jobs” alone this holiday season to capture a 3% YOY increase from last year….assuming the bulk of the 158K new jobs projected added last month are “seasonal hiring”, 2012 has a lot more hiring to go to catch up with 2011 in “seasonal hiring”.

    http://mrinetwork.com/resources/article-archive/articles/holiday-season-hiring-at-five-year-high-in-2012/

    Of course another issue even the globalist bent NYTs brought up yesterday, is the average job now-a-days is like 28 hrs a week, $10.90/hr. Some have health benefits, even with a short erratic hours week, but the workers complain the low take home pay doesn’t allow them to afford health care copayments. I’d add in the health care field [I do volunteer work there] even nurses are complaining most of the new hospital jobs now are reduced week hours, no health care and they call it per diem (PD) job slots. The workers are called to work weird erratic hours and too much inability to be flexible means they call you even less. Makes it almost impossible to work two jobs, you can imagine.

    Hope everyone had a Nice Halloween!

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  2. 2
    A says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1

    The ADP figure is seasonally adjusted.

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  3. 3
    corndogs says:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2012/11/07/wall-street-election-react/1687277/

    Just want to post this for you Democrats that told me that a lack of confidence in Barack Obama does not affect the market….

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  4. 4
    Doug says:

    RE: corndogs @ 3

    It’s still nearly doubled since he took office. You might want to show a long-term trend.

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  5. 5
    Pegasus says:

    RE: Doug @ 4 – Corny must be so distraught that his prior delusional ravings did not come true.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    David Losh says:

    RE: corndogs @ 3

    How about those riots in Greece, and the day’s leading story that Europe expects a recession with record high unemployment?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    doug says:

    RE: David Losh @ 6

    It’s hard to use logic on a guy who said stock markets dropped after the second debate because Obama won, rather than disappointing quarterly earning reports were released.

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  8. 8

    By Doug @ 4:

    RE: corndogs @ 3

    It’s still nearly doubled since he took office. You might want to show a long-term trend.

    Because there was panic in 2008-2009, and because the federal government has driven down interest rates, making bonds less attractive, and because money has moved here from other countries. NOT because President Obama is a good president.

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  9. 9
    Doug says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8

    1. Demand is very, very high for bonds. (remember negative rates?) I’ll agree with you that low interest rates have boosted stocks, but I don’t think we need to even really include bonds in that picture :-)
    2. Foreign investment in our stock markets, whether you like it or not, is still investment and confidence in our stock markets. Unless you’re of the position that people from other countries just like throwing away money.

    Don’t get me wrong, i think the DJIA is a ridiculous way to measure a president’s performance, and the two are often totally unrelated.

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  10. 10

    RE: Doug @ 9 – I don’t totally disagree, but . . .

    1. I would attribute the demand for bonds to be related to the inflow of cash into this country due to uncertainty elsewhere.

    2. Yes, it’s confidence in our stock market, but the foreign investor can win in a down market if the exchange rate for their currency falls.

    I agree the DJIA is a poor measure, especially if you’re only looking at one day. My comment yesterday on the drop was factious.

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  11. 11
    Doug says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    As long as we can agree corndogs is silly :-)

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