Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

11 responses to “October 2012 Seattle Bubble Recap”

  1. softwarengineer

    Is 158K New Jobs in October a Good Economic Sign

    The day to day stock market seems to think it is, rising up before tomorrow’s job report is published.

    Let me talk pragmatic about “seasonal hiring” for 2012. We need 626K “seasonal hiring jobs” alone this holiday season to capture a 3% YOY increase from last year….assuming the bulk of the 158K new jobs projected added last month are “seasonal hiring”, 2012 has a lot more hiring to go to catch up with 2011 in “seasonal hiring”.

    http://mrinetwork.com/resources/article-archive/articles/holiday-season-hiring-at-five-year-high-in-2012/

    Of course another issue even the globalist bent NYTs brought up yesterday, is the average job now-a-days is like 28 hrs a week, $10.90/hr. Some have health benefits, even with a short erratic hours week, but the workers complain the low take home pay doesn’t allow them to afford health care copayments. I’d add in the health care field [I do volunteer work there] even nurses are complaining most of the new hospital jobs now are reduced week hours, no health care and they call it per diem (PD) job slots. The workers are called to work weird erratic hours and too much inability to be flexible means they call you even less. Makes it almost impossible to work two jobs, you can imagine.

    Hope everyone had a Nice Halloween!

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  2. A

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1

    The ADP figure is seasonally adjusted.

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  3. corndogs

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2012/11/07/wall-street-election-react/1687277/

    Just want to post this for you Democrats that told me that a lack of confidence in Barack Obama does not affect the market….

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  4. Doug

    RE: corndogs @ 3

    It’s still nearly doubled since he took office. You might want to show a long-term trend.

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  5. Pegasus

    RE: Doug @ 4 – Corny must be so distraught that his prior delusional ravings did not come true.

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  6. David Losh

    RE: corndogs @ 3

    How about those riots in Greece, and the day’s leading story that Europe expects a recession with record high unemployment?

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  7. doug

    RE: David Losh @ 6 -

    It’s hard to use logic on a guy who said stock markets dropped after the second debate because Obama won, rather than disappointing quarterly earning reports were released.

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  8. Kary L. Krismer

    By Doug @ 4:

    RE: corndogs @ 3

    It’s still nearly doubled since he took office. You might want to show a long-term trend.

    Because there was panic in 2008-2009, and because the federal government has driven down interest rates, making bonds less attractive, and because money has moved here from other countries. NOT because President Obama is a good president.

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  9. Doug

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8

    1. Demand is very, very high for bonds. (remember negative rates?) I’ll agree with you that low interest rates have boosted stocks, but I don’t think we need to even really include bonds in that picture :-)
    2. Foreign investment in our stock markets, whether you like it or not, is still investment and confidence in our stock markets. Unless you’re of the position that people from other countries just like throwing away money.

    Don’t get me wrong, i think the DJIA is a ridiculous way to measure a president’s performance, and the two are often totally unrelated.

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  10. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Doug @ 9 – I don’t totally disagree, but . . .

    1. I would attribute the demand for bonds to be related to the inflow of cash into this country due to uncertainty elsewhere.

    2. Yes, it’s confidence in our stock market, but the foreign investor can win in a down market if the exchange rate for their currency falls.

    I agree the DJIA is a poor measure, especially if you’re only looking at one day. My comment yesterday on the drop was factious.

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  11. Doug

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    As long as we can agree corndogs is silly :-)

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