Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

32 responses to “Election Day Open Thread”

  1. Kary L. Krismer

    I wonder if the winning party today will ultimately be the loser? That could happen if the economy is past a tipping point, and will crash within 3.8 years (before the next election).

    Personally I don’t think we are past a tipping point, and I’m not even sure we would be with 4T more of government debt. But with GDP at about 15T with deficit spending at about 1T, clearly the economy has not recovered. Imagine what would happen to GDP without that deficit spending! GDP could drop below 2005 levels, which would make 2007-2008 look like a pleasant experience.

    Taking responsibility for the economy the next four years is a risky business for both parties.

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  2. Kary L. Krismer

    Here’s an interesting news story on Oregon and it’s foreclosure situation.

    http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2012/10/deschutes_county_judges_brace.html

    Unlike Washington state, the MERS decision down there seems to be actually affecting things, and not necessarily in a good way. Judicial foreclosures are rising, and the article indicates that in one month only 3 non-judicial notices were filed in one particular county!

    It’s always dangerous to assume that another state’s laws are the same as ours, but it’s probably safe to assume a judicial foreclosure means the owner would be left with a deficiency judgment. I’m not certain about the non-judicial result, but it’s probably no deficiency. Assuming that’s the situation, you really have to wonder what the debtors’ attorneys down there accomplished. Did they make a point about procedure at the expense of their clients being exposed to deficiency judgments? If so, I think that’s hardly a good trade off. Seemingly the procedure issues are something they should have fought in the legislature, not the courts.

    On the topic of the legislature, part of the result in Oregon is also being blamed on the new mediation rules in Oregon. We’ve discussed that up here, and how our mediation rules could be resulting in more judicial foreclosures. Non-judicial foreclosure is supposed to be a quick process, with the creditor agreeing to give up the deficiency to gain the quick process. If they don’t get the quick process . . ..

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  3. Pegasus

    The good news is that it is all over today and I won’t have listen to that idiotic ad for Maria Cantwell that plays every 5 minutes. She can return to her role as the Rip Van Winkle of the Senate. Yawn!!

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  4. pfft

    nate silver has Obama at an 90.9% chance of winning.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

    I forecast 332 electoral votes for Obama, meaning he takes Florida.

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  5. softwarengineer

    RE: pfft @ 4

    I’m With Obama on Main Two Issues

    He’s for a Supreme Court that bans foreign/corporate campaign bribe money to the Dem/Rep candidates.

    He drives a Chrysler 300 hemi, better yet its American Engineered, when 7 out of 10 Americans buy foreign engineered cars during high unemployment of engineers.

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  6. Blurtman

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5 – I didn’t know Obama drove a Chrysler 300. I rented a new 300 AWD recently and loved it. Quite a cushy ride, big fat steering wheel, great acceleration and handling. 14.4 mpg, however.

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  7. Tatiana Kalashnikov

    RE: pfft @ 4

    Romney wins it with ease taking Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia. Betcha.

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  8. apartment boy

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5
    Hemi = good

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  9. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: The Tim @ 7 – I would agree with many if not all of those points, but mail in elections save money. Government needs to spend money on too many other things that politicians have thought up over the years, so they can’t afford to spend money on elections. /sarc

    I don’t like early voting in general. I think it was Ardell mentioning that too many things could happen on some election, and I agree.

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  10. ChrisM

    Completely not election related:

    http://imgur.com/r/cablefail/dfX92

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  11. ChrisM

    Agreed on the dislike for mail-in. Couple of voting snafus in Oregon – debate about whether the post office should forward ballots w/ insufficient postage
    http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2012/11/charges_fly_in_oregon_secretar.html

    good old vote fraud in the counting office
    http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-city/index.ssf/2012/11/clackamas_county_elections_emp.html

    Having an incompetent Secretary of State doesn’t help matters.

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  12. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: Tatiana Kalashnikov @ 8
    I’m thinking Romney takes Florida, and maybe Virginia.

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  13. Cheap South

    By softwarengineer @ 5:

    RE: pfft @ 4

    I’m With Obama on Main Two Issues

    He’s for a Supreme Court that bans foreign/corporate campaign bribe money to the Dem/Rep candidates.

    He drives a Chrysler 300 hemi, better yet its American Engineered, when 7 out of 10 Americans buy foreign engineered cars during high unemployment of engineers.

    Actually, his last “personal” vehicle is a Ford Escape Hybrid. He replaced the Chrysler some 6 years ago.

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  14. Pegasus
  15. Blurtman

    I cannot believe that racist cracker George Allen will win.

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  16. wreckingbull

    RE: The Tim @ 7 Tim, I think you have #2 completely backward. As someone who has participated in both types of voting, I will say that I was ALWAYS far more knowledgeable of the measures and candidates when I could spend a good four hours voting at home.

    This year, as I hear all the usual stories of lines, voting machine malfunctions, disenfranchisement, voter intimidation, and other tired old problems, it makes me think we are actually further ahead than any other state.

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  17. Pegasus

    Warren Beats Brown: CBS Projects Winner In Mass. Senate Race

    The tribal nations will be ecstatic to have one of their own in the Senate!

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/11/06/warren-beats-brown-cbs-projects-winner-in-mass-senate-race/

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  18. Pegasus

    RE: The Tim @ 18 – Tim your premise is unfounded and petty. Let’s push for Internet voting after they produce a method that can’t be gamed. With your premise the tougher we make it to vote the more deserving we are to have our vote count. What a bunch of horsechocolate. Maybe we should make voters run an obstacle course in order to prove they are worthy to vote? Nonsense! The more voters that vote the more we have a representative result that the true majority of people truly want. Your logical next step would be to have the popular vote eliminated and the Electoral College be the deciders without having to deal with the public. Try getting worked up over something meaningful like real estate fraud. There is a topic we hopefully could agree on.

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  19. Pegasus

    RE: The Tim @ 21 – I read all of them and found you sounding like an old geezer who has nothing to do but cry about nonsensical things that are meaningless. Sorry but that’s the facts, Jack…errr Tim. With your attitudes you will soon be demanding the Internet to be closed and all people surrender their cell phones(I could go along with that one).

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  20. wreckingbull

    RE: The Tim @ 18 – Why should I have to take notes for a future voting event when I can just fill out the ballot while I research? I don’t doubt that you researched everything and took notes prior to going to your polling location. I assure you most others did not.

    I had to cancel a meeting today because one of my managers was out voting, in another state of course. There were seven other people attending the conference call, and it was a big hit to productivity. I found myself wondering just the opposite, why we still bother with the old way.

    Edit: This story plays out every four years:

    http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019617039_apusvotingtroubles.html

    Having a beer next to the fire, while filling out my ballot and cursing the duopoly was a much better experience than these poor people had to endure tonight.

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  21. willynilly

    RE: The Tim @ 21

    Mail in ballots are far superior.

    Your point #1 Sorry but we practice respect and privacy in our household, and all households I am familiar with do as well. If a household is rife with individuals who have major character flaws this is not a good reason to penalize an efficient method. Sounds like lets dumb down the process so the parameters aid the most defective.

    Your point #2 Sorry fear mongering paranoia. If someone goes and spends time driving to and waiting at a polling place their efforts are superior? Utter nonsense. I can give a crap by spending time actually researching and considering the issues and candidates over a period of time and invest much more effort in making informed decisions. Because some schmuck waits in line for 6 hours at a polling place their opinion is more valid? Sounds like who is the bigger idiot who does not plan ahead. Bet you a penny (times a thousand) that all those people who wait in line for hours hardly spent hours educating themselves and making an informed decision.

    Your point #3 More hypothetical paranoia. I fill out my ballot (after spending much cumulative effort). Then I go and deposit it personally at the post office. Kind of sounds like getting off my butt and going to a physical location. My ballot never gets lost, stolen or destroyed. I also have a choice when I can fill it out over a number of days, not some knee jerk, emotional last minute decision by rushing to a polling place and looking at a ballot for the first time (like a lot of people do).

    Your point #4 There is more opportunity in an uncontrolled environment (polling place) than a controlled environment (a persons home) to be influenced and affected. Have you not you learned to throw away all political mailers yet? Who votes for the person(s) that spend the most – the person who is influenced by marketing hype and not controlling their environment. Muting TV commercials is also a noble method of self directing some of your sensory input.

    Your point #5 Drags out the election process by days or weeks? I send my ballot in several days before election day. Weeks? I have never lost a piece of outgoing mail in like four decades. I guess we need to dumb down the process for the worst case imaginable scenario. Better to wait an additional day than have some mad panic rush, emotional last minute decision making efforts of people – or low voter turnout.

    Your point #6 Waste paper? This is pretty thin. How about keeping lights on for hours on end and fuel to get to and from a polling place. How about wasted time by standing in line?
    My time is valuable. Killing the better part of a day by complying with a cumbersome system, now that is inefficient and wasteful.

    I used to diligently go to my polling places to vote – 20 years ago. Sometimes things get in the way schedule wise. I can recall many many instances where when asking people if they voted their response was: I had to do XYZ, or go to a kids soccer game, or I just couldn’t make it. There were two times where I could not make it to my polling place in time. Then I discovered – absentee ballots.
    Mail in ballot: 100% success!

    Almost without fail you (Tim) are very reasonable, methodical, balanced, concise, clear and astute. Now my perception of you is disrupted by your illogical perception of the vote casting mechanics.

    If people decide everything they are going to vote for, and write it down on a piece of paper, what is wrong with a stamp? I bet you 95% of the people do not show up with their answer sheet. Absentee ballots kick junk in the trunk. Controlled, flexible, private, efficient, home delivered.

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  22. Doug

    RE: Tatiana Kalashnikov @ 8

    *Sad trombone*

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  23. David Losh

    I really like filling out my ballot at home, with my voter’s pamphlets. It gives me much more time to read, and research my voting, then drop off the ballot because I’m too cheap to use a stamp.

    The process seems cheaper, and easier. What I didn’t like is the early voting results that were coming in. That could probably be changed.

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  24. Pegasus

    RE: The Tim @ 23 – I was unwilling to waste anyone’s time with a petty discussion over something as ridiculous as your 6 reasons of nonsense. Sorry. Let’s discuss how to prevent lint from gathering in your navel instead. It would be more entertaining and surely something of more importance.

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  25. Doug

    RE: Pegasus @ 28

    Uh, hey everyone I hear we re-elected the president, and had some pretty interesting local elections too. No? Nothing? Just gonna… Tell at the Tim about balloting?

    Four more years :-D

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  26. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 27:

    I really like filling out my ballot at home, with my voter’s pamphlets. It gives me much more time to read, and research my voting, then drop off the ballot because I’m too cheap to use a stamp. .

    I could see doing that just to make sure it was properly delivered. But with gas at over $3.50 a gallon, you’d be spending more if you have to go more than 3 miles, assuming your car gets 20 mpg.

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  27. Kary L. Krismer

    By Doug @ 29:

    RE: Pegasus @ 28

    Uh, hey everyone I hear we re-elected the president, and had some pretty interesting local elections too. No? Nothing? Just gonna… Tell at the Tim about balloting?

    Four more years :-D

    Four more years of stagnant growth, partisan wars in DC, an increased possibility of a double dip recession, no solution on immigration and the eventual demise of Medicare. Let’s celebrate!

    I would agree the local elections are interesting.

    Seemingly we’ve Gerrymandered about 80% of our congressional districts into what will effectively become non-contested races going forward.

    If you look at the county results, the amount of anti-gay prejudice in Eastern Washington is staggering, and the amount of support in King County while high, is surprisingly low.

    The marijuana initiative, in contrast, shows broader support on a county by county basis. Hopefully this (and Colorado) will signal the beginning of the end of the war on drugs. It might even lead to some countries no longer supporting our drug war, thereby protecting their own citizens from murder at the hands of drug cartels because our country wants to pretend Marijuana is a dangerous addictive drug.

    For Governor we still don’t know whether it will be Tweedle Dee or Tweedle Dumb. I don’t really care that much either way, but it would be nice to have a Republican just for a change of pace.

    And finally, the people of Skyway don’t want to become part of Renton! That is mainly a law enforcement issue, with the Sheriff not wanting to have to cover urban areas. I didn’t follow that one, but I suspect the opposition was tax related.

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