Case-Shiller: Seattle HPI Bucked Seasonality in September

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to September data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 0.3% August to September.
Up 4.8% YOY.
Down 26.1% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 1.1% from August to September and year-over-year prices were down 6.5%.

Although Seattle was the only city whose HPI fell between July and August, we moved back into the black in September as six other cities showed month-over-month losses.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle went from the bottom of the heap in August for month-over-month changes back to the middle of the pack in September.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In September, seven of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (three fewer than August):

  • Phoenix at +20.4%
  • Minneapolis at +8.8%
  • Detroit at +7.6%
  • San Francisco at +7.5%
  • Miami at +7.4%
  • Denver at +6.7%
  • Tampa, FL at +5.9%

Twelve cities gained less than Seattle (or were falling) as of September: Dallas, San Diego, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Portland, Charlotte, Washington DC, Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, and New York. Atlanta moved back into the black for the first time since September 2007 (not counting a brief bump during the tax credit).

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through September.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the sixty-two months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 26.1%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of September: Still basically February 2005.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 11.27.2012)

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

21 comments:

  1. 1
    Ray pepper says:

    Tim have you done graphs yet on what happened to property taxes over the last decade in king and pierce?

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  2. 2
    softwarengineer says:

    Trying to Make Data Predictions from a Current YOY Seattle Market Inventory Collapse

    I see from Money Magazine, Dec 2012, that Seattle was rated number 2 [-38% drop in home inventory]….thank God we weren’t San Jose, rated number 1 [-42% drop in home inventory].

    At what point in inventory drops in the data evaluated do any of our future home price predictions just become Ouja board guesses due to lack of reliable trend data?

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  3. 3
    softwarengineer says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 1

    They sky rocketed up in SE KIng County about 10% from 2011-2012….but with the 2013 assessments plummetting like 38% last Halloween, there’ll be pitch forks and torches if that happens again this 2013 Valentines Day.

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  4. 4

    RE: softwarengineer @ 3 – It varies by area and property. My 2012 taxes were lower than both 2011 and 2010.

    Again, most the tax paid is not directly dependent on value, because as values rise rates tend to go down. So you could have an increase in assessed value and a decrease in tax owed if the values of other properties went up more on average than yours did.

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  5. 5

    By softwarengineer @ 2:

    At what point in inventory drops in the data evaluated do any of our future home price predictions just become Ouja board guesses due to lack of reliable trend data?

    At what time weren’t future home price predictions just Ouja board BS? ;-)

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  6. 6
    SG says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4 – Yeah, here in Bellevue, the rates are about 0.8% – is it the same for all of King County? I was watching a tv show last night (House Hunters on HGTV i think) and a Chicago area home worth 225k had annual taxes of about $6k. Wow!

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  7. 7

    RE: SG @ 6 – The rates vary quite a bit around the county, part of which is due to whether the school levy passed for the area.

    http://www.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/Reports/~/media/Assessor/PropertyTaxes/TaxRate12.ashx

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  8. 8
    Ray Pepper says:

    Schiller 10 mill + foreclosures coming with downward pressure..U G L Y !

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000131858&play=1

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  9. 9

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 8
    That’s not what he said, Ray. He said that ten million households were underwater. He also said that it was plausible that home prices would be rising about 3% per year for the next few years.

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  10. 10
    Pegasus says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 9 – Ira found a pony! Ira found a pony! Ira found a pony! Ira found a pony!

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  11. 11

    RE: Pegasus @ 10
    I didn’t say I agreed with Schiller on this, and am in fact fairly pessimistic about the economy. Just gotta make sure he said what he said he said. Just the facts, m’aam.

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  12. 12
    Marc says:

    RE: Pegasus @ 10 – Comment of the day! Very funny

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  13. 13
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 9 – oops your right! too much turkey! I’m just happy someone reads my links!!!!!!!!!!

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  14. 14

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 9:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 8
    That’s not what he said, Ray. He said that ten million households were underwater. He also said that it was plausible that home prices would be rising about 3% per year for the next few years.

    Don’t let facts stand in the way of the “They’re all coming back” spin. ;-)

    [And by “facts” I mean what was said, not the prediction.]

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  15. 15
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 14

    they are all coming back…lil by lil…no spin….through short sale, deed in lieu, foreclosure, and/or Mortgage Cramdown aka Principle Reduction…Kary, I believe it was YOU who said it would NEVER happen…

    Everyone and their brother are getting HUGE principle writedowns now and as we have learned(and as many knew) it pays BIG TIME to have bought into the Bubble and stop paying in 2008! Get those 3-5 years of free rent, hop on the hamster wheel, and wait for the BIG PAY DAY in 2013!

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  16. 16

    By ray pepper @ 15:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 14 – they are all coming back…lil by lil…no spin….through short sale, deed in lieu, foreclosure, and/or Mortgage Cramdown aka Principle Reduction…Kary, I believe it was YOU who said it would NEVER happen…

    Everyone and their brother are getting HUGE principle writedowns now and as we have learned(and as many knew) it pays BIG TIME to have bought into the Bubble and stop paying in 2008! Get those 3-5 years of free rent, hop on the hamster wheel, and wait for the BIG PAY DAY in 2013!

    First sentence: Why don’t you post the percentage of loans that are delinquent, and then compare that to 100%.

    Second sentence: I don’t make predictions, but in any case, so far we’ve yet to see that they’re all coming back, and there’s little or no evidence that they are.

    Third sentence: Everyone is not going to get big write downs. There are a lot of people out there actually worried about judicial foreclosures, and some judicial foreclosures are starting to occur. If your financial situation is relatively low, then yes you’d probably be able to get a write down–if you don’t have a Fannie or Freddie loan. F&F have been resisting write downs as a moral hazard.

    On the other hand, if your loan is with one of the entities part of the National Mortgage Settlement, then a write down is perhaps more likely. For those people, they can take advantage of the settlement, which pays Peter for Paul’s losses. (Meaning the beneficiaries of the settlement do not match the victims).

    Fourth sentence: I have a neighbor who was foreclosed out in a bit over a year. But like financial condition, if you have a POS house that the bank doesn’t really want to own, it can take longer.

    What I don’t get is your point in making these factious claims.

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  17. 17
    Macro Investor says:

    Most of the people I talk to think the entire universe is Bellevue Washington. They aren’t watching Europe and seeing the devastation caused by the credit bubble. And even if they are, they can’t imagine that ever affecting their own pink pony neighborhood.

    The readers on this site realize how much the housing market depends on gov charity. But it goes much further. The entire economy is on the same kind of life support. The budget debate is just a political infomercial. Nothing much will happen. But someday the US will have to choose austerity or default. Just like a bigger version of your clueless neighbors who borrowed too much and are facing foreclosure.

    If you have patience you’ll do fine. Don’t get scammed into buying a $400k wooden box unless you can afford to pay cash, and watch your taxes get jacked sky high, and lose your job. Once the US is forced into austerity or default, tens of millions of jobs are kaput.

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  18. 18
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16 – must I find your posts and provide the links were you plainly stated loans will never be written down or principle balances diminished. You sure made those claims in the past. So you do INDEED make predictions.

    Its all in your definition of “coming back.” My definition is through short sales deed in lieu, foreclosure, and principle write downs ALL properties will reflect their current value thus “they are all coming back.” It should take less then 10 years NOW to unwind this mess.

    Of course Kary not EVERYONE gets this. Some paid CASH for their home or placed ALOT down. Those poor souls..If they only knew they were all coming back……………

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  19. 19

    By ray pepper @ 18:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16 – Its all in your definition of “coming back.” My definition is through short sales deed in lieu, foreclosure, and principle write downs ALL properties will reflect their current value thus “they are all coming back.” It should take less then 10 years NOW to unwind this mess…

    “Coming back” is clear. The problem I have is with “all.” Rather obviously I was never saying ZERO properties would ever be foreclosed. For low end properties owned by people with low end finances, then yes they can get those types of relief. Others are not likely to be able to, absent committing bank fraud.

    The one exception again might be the National Mortgage Settlement. There the banks have to give away money, and they probably don’t care too much who they give it away to. They probably have some preference to give it away on uncollectable debt, but that might not be that overly important for the bank.

    Let’s use this analogy. Let’s say in the 80s you bought a Audi, and then 60 Minutes did a BS report on false acceleration, greatly reducing the car’s value. You wouldn’t have been able to go to the bank to get the loan balance approved, unless possibly there was a risk of default on the loan and the bank didn’t think they could collect on a judgment against you.

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  20. 20
    Marc says:

    RE: Pegasus @ 10 – Yikes! Apparently I’m the only one who found this humorous. It certainly didn’t seem like an attack on Ira to me. Rather, a wee bit of humor that Ira would appreciate given his well documented self-deprecating charm.

    I don’t really care who said it or why, I think it’s friggin hilarious and in keeping with this site’s devotees. We all gotta take a little ribbing once in a while.

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  21. 21

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