Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

23 responses to “Local Foreclosures Flat in November”

  1. Pegasus

    “All three counties are still up quite a bit from a year ago, but this is not very meaningful since foreclosures were dramatically dipping last year.” Really Tim, Mr. Redfin employee? 222 percent, 168 percent, 106 percent increases are not “meaningful”? How do those numbers compare with pre-bubble numbers, say 2001? Don’t lose your soul like so many in your industry do.

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  2. whatsmyname

    Peggy, look at the raw numbers. 900 NOTS in King County might eventually be 200 actual foreclosures. Now notice that we are about 2,000 short of “normal” on the daily inventory tracker. There’s meaningful, and then there’s meaningful.

    On a related note, Calculated Risk had this today.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/will-housing-inventory-bottom-in-2013.html

    “If prices increase enough (probably around 5% in 2012) then some of the potential sellers will come off the fence, and some of these underwater homeowners will be able to sell. It might be enough for inventory to bottom in 2013.

    Another issue is if the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 is allowed to expire at the end of 2012. If the act isn’t extended, many of the contingent short sales will be pulled off the market. Although this doesn’t impact active inventory directly, it might have an indirect impact.

    Right now my guess is active inventory will bottom in 2013.”

    -And these guys are looking at national numbers with a 5.4 month supply.

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  3. David Losh

    I really like the Tableau graphs, and the ability to pull the data back to 1999 for that perspective.

    It shows how much our market place has changed in the past seven years.

    This year more people may be willing to sell, and inventory increasing. Prices may even increase, but it will still be a complete departure from normal.

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  4. corndogs

    RE: Pegasus @ 1 – Pegasux said..”Don’t lose your soul like so many in your industry do”.
    The Tim is looking for a soul. You’re looking for a brain. Losh is looking for a life.. the 3 of you should hit the yellow brick road and consult the Wizard.. Regarding foreclosure activity. . listen to the whatsmyname guy. .. This is just like when you didn’t understand the mix. .. Now you don’t understand that these foreclosures aren’t a driver of over all inventory. . You’ll catch on in a few months or a year with the other Democrats. .. Ps..When you get to the Wizard. . Pay no attention to the the big Corndog sticking out of the curtain. .

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    By Pegasus @ 1:

    “All three counties are still up quite a bit from a year ago, but this is not very meaningful since foreclosures were dramatically dipping last year.” Really Tim, Mr. Redfin employee? 222 percent, 168 percent, 106 percent increases are not “meaningful”? How do those numbers compare with pre-bubble numbers, say 2001? Don’t lose your soul like so many in your industry do.

    What Tim said was this: “All three counties are still up quite a bit from a year ago, but this is not very meaningful since foreclosures were dramatically dipping last year.”

    Narrow the time range for the graphs above to start sometime in 2007. You can see that the numbers while much higher than last year are mainly so only because last year was a significant drop from most of the time since this financial crisis started. That very well could have been due to changes in the law–I’ve given up tracking when those occurred because just the fact there’s been so much legislation makes these historical comparisons practically pointless.

    I believe Tim still notes on his statistics that the NWMLS classification for pending changed once many years ago. The rules for foreclosures have changed several times over the past 3-4 years. That’s affected the number of foreclosures in any given month several times, which makes historical comparisons pointless (unless perhaps we get to record highs or down to pre-2008 levels for an extended time.)

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  6. Kary L. Krismer

    By whatsmyname @ 2:

    Another issue is if the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 is allowed to expire at the end of 2012. If the act isn’t extended, many of the contingent short sales will be pulled off the market. Although this doesn’t impact active inventory directly, it might have an indirect impact.

    We’re well past the time that should be affecting decisions. I wrote about that possibly affecting decisions back in February.

    http://www.trulia.com/blog/kary_l_krismer/2012/02/advising_owners_facing_foreclosure

    To the extent it does affect decisions it will be because of NAR propaganda which has sometimes been used to overstate the impact of the law expiring. The expiration probably will not significantly affect most sellers (for many their tax returns will be more complicated to get to the same result), and never did protect all sellers.

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  7. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5RE: corndog @ 4

    What these charts show is another spike in the Real Estate market place. Real Estate is supposed to be a stable, long term investment.

    These are another set of charts that show wild volitility. That should be the focus of these charts of the discussion here.

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  8. corndogs

    By David Losh @ 7:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5RE: corndog @ 4

    What these charts show is another spike in the Real Estate market place. Real Estate is supposed to be a stable, long term investment.

    These are another set of charts that show wild volitility. That should be the focus of these charts of the discussion here.

    wrong!

    What we’d expect with foreclosures is a large spike initially after the bubble event, followed by ever decreasing data points moving out to the right. . It’s exactly what we have. . It’s completely predictable. Foreclosures will continue to decrease, prices will rise. Yes. . I agree if you have no concept of an overall context as it relates to the real estate market and you are completely brain dead the chart appears volatile. .. Sorry losh but you’re just not up to par my friend. .

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  9. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 7:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5RE: corndog @ 4

    What these charts show is another spike in the Real Estate market place. Real Estate is supposed to be a stable, long term investment.

    These are another set of charts that show wild volitility. That should be the focus of these charts of the discussion here.

    Again Dave, just because you can read the data don’t think you understand the data.

    Legislation affecting how properties are foreclosed affects temporarily the number of foreclosures which occur. I’ve even suspected that legislation in other states can affect our states, because some of these companies process foreclosures in more than one state, and if they can’t work say in California, they’ll have people process foreclosures up here.

    Data is seldom just data. Causes and effect are usually in action.

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  10. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 9RE: corndog @ 8

    Same comment different words.

    The bubble was a bubble. A bubble isn’t normal. Spike in foreclosures would be normal, but the government threw everything at the lending market to prop up Real Estate prices, so that isn’t normal. It’s volitile.

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  11. corndogs

    By David Losh @ 10:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 9RE: corndog @ 8

    Same comment different words.

    The bubble was a bubble. A bubble isn’t normal. Spike in foreclosures would be normal, but the government threw everything at the lending market to prop up Real Estate prices, so that isn’t normal. It’s volitile.

    wrong! A volatile situation by definition is something unexpected and wildly fluctuating. This is not volatile. . You are stupid and you spelled it wrong. .. and yes it is relevant that you are stupid. It’s very relevant.

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  12. Kary L. Krismer

    By corndog @ 11:

    The bubble was a bubble. A bubble isn’t normal. Spike in foreclosures would be normal, but the government threw everything at the lending market to prop up Real Estate prices, so that isn’t normal. It’s volitile.

    wrong! A volatile situation by definition is something unexpected and wildly fluctuating. This is not volatile. . You are stupid and you spelled it wrong. .. and yes it is relevant that you are stupid. It’s very relevant.

    It depends on how you’re looking at the data. If you look at it long term, then what we had was a period of low (“normal”) foreclosures, followed by a significant rise in foreclosures. I wouldn’t call that particularly volatile. We basically had one change.

    But if you focus on just the period after the rise, there the numbers really are very volatile. That’s why I focused on the changing legislation, because that caused some volatility. Also, some banks had a moratorium on processing foreclosures, while they reviewed their procedures. That caused some volatility. There are also other factors at work, so many that this particular statistic has become somewhat meaningless, at least when viewed at the monthly level. Perhaps a six month moving average would be better?

    And yes, that is the fall out from the bubble. People don’t want to own houses forever, and if banks are not going to process short sales in sufficient numbers, then foreclosures are going to likely increase.

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  13. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: corndog @ 11
    What’s even more relevant is that you can’t seem to respond to a single post without name calling. If you had a relevant point to make, and I think you do, it is seriously diminished by you calling people idiots, stupid, semi-black, moron Democrat, etc . What are you, 15 years old? Try being polite for say, I don’t know, one single post?

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  14. corndogs

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 13 – I seem to remember you mentioned stupid white folks in one of your posts. .. worry about yourself Fred Sandford.

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  15. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 12RE: corndog @ 11

    My comment stands. This is a blog post, of good data, but it doesn’t mean anything to the broader market.

    I don’t even check my comments for spelling any more, because these threads have become so ridiculous.

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  16. Ira Sacharoff

    By corndog @ 14:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 13 – I seem to remember you mentioned stupid white folks in one of your posts. .. worry about yourself Fred Sandford.

    There’s a huge difference between mentioning stupid white folks and calling someone that. As much as I have disagreed with some people on Seattle Bubble, I have never called anybody stupid, or a moron, or a stupid white person, or Fred Sanford. Why? Because I try to be respectful. I think it matters. You, on the other hand, can’t seem to disagree with anyone without calling them a name. Try it. You might actually find people respecting your opinion more.

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  17. Blurtman

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 16 – Face it, Ira. Your love of Coltrane, basketball, Shaft movies, and menthol cigarettes can only mean one thing.

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  18. Ira Sacharoff

    By Blurtman @ 17:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 16 – Face it, Ira. Your love of Coltrane, basketball, Shaft movies, and menthol cigarettes can only mean one thing.

    Coltrane- Guilty as charged. Basketball- Loved playing with a passion util i tried out for my HS basketball team, when I came to the conclusion that a short, slow moving Jew has only so much value on the basketball court. Never smoked cigs, menthol or otherwise, but do appreciate smoked BBQ pork ribs and…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhcflDSUMvc

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  19. corndogs

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 16 – “There’s a huge difference between mentioning stupid white folks and calling someone that.” Yes, Ira there is a difference. Attributing a characteristic to all people of a certain race, like you did, is called racism. The fact that you made a textbook racial comment, as a mixed race individual, and fail to acknowledge it, implies a certain level of ignorance on your part, does it not?. Your racial make-up has no relevance except for the day you attempted to pull the double standard. Corndog called you out on it, end of story.

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  20. Blurtman

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18 – Martha. Si!

    And that’s what I’m talking about: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnhI_ECOAK4

    On the ligher side: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fREmwwfT_Ts

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  21. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: corndogs @ 19RE: corndogs @ 19
    OK fine, I’m a racist. I acknowledge it. I hate evrybody. But I am not a mixed race individual, and have no idea why you think that I am. I’ve got no problems with mixed race indivuals, I just don’t happen to be one. There are a lot of varieties of caucasian, and my DNA shows no genetic haglotypes associated with the African continent. I think, therefore, as a White person, I’m allowed to make fun of White people.

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  22. corndogs

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 21:

    RE: corndogs @ 19
    OK fine, I’m a racist. I acknowledge it. I hate evrybody. But I am not a mixed race individual, and have no idea why you think that I am. I’ve got no problems with mixed race indivuals, I just don’t happen to be one. There are a lot of varieties of caucasian, and my DNA shows no genetic haglotypes associated with the African continent. I think, therefore, as a White person, I’m allowed to make fun of White people.

    Well, Ira, you’re on the internet, nobody knows what you are. I can assure you though if you sat down in a pub in Ireland with that mug of yours and said that sh#t there wouldn’t be much left of you.

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  23. end of the bubble?

    I’ve been reading this site every week or two for last 3-4 years and it seems there are more personal attacks and less content lately.

    Is this a sign that the bubble is close to working itself out?

    (would be interesting to see a chart of % of posts with insults & name calling by month since this blog began).

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