Let’s take an updated look at how King County’s sales are shifting between the different regions around the county, since geographic shifts can and do affect the median price.
In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:
- low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
- mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
- high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)
Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of November data:
- low end: $180,000—$292,450
- mid range: $295,000—$693,350
- high end: $440,000—$1,195,000
First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).
We’ve got a slow climb over the last few months in the low end regions, a decent bump up in the mid range, and a slight decline in the high end.
Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.
This chart has become somewhat of a mess in recent months as all three regions converge on the middle. As of November 2012, 32.5% of sales were in the low end regions, 33.9% in the mid range, and 33.6% in the high end. A year ago the low end made up 37.5% of the sales, the mid range was 29.3%, and the high end was 33.3%, so there has been a definite dropoff in the low end regions over the last year, with the slack being picked up mostly in Seattle and north Seattle.
Lastly, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:
It’s interesting how closely the big moves up in the median price this year correlate to the big moves down in the share of homes that are being sold in south King. Go figure: When you sell fewer cheap homes, the median price increases.
+30
For a slightly different way of looking at things, with far fewer data points, between July 2007 and July 2012, King County SFR properties of 1.5 bath or less fell in price by about 32%, while SFR properties of 1.75 bath or more fell by only about 25%.
It’s not surprising that 1.5 bath would fall more, because they are basically functionally obsolete. Here’s what’s surprising.
If you look at the non-distressed sales in July, 2012, the 1.5 bath and less homes fell by only about 12% from the July, 2007 figure (which didn’t break out non-distressed back then), while the 1.75 bath and more homes fell by about 18%. I have no explanation for that, other than perhaps first time buyers driving up the price of entry level homes in a low inventory environment.
To check that hypothesis I ran July, 2011, and there the 1.5 and less fell by about 25% compared to only about 17% for 1.75 and more. That would indicate my hypothesis is correct, but it’s too small of a data sample.
Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.
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@Tim, What do the ranges in the median figures mean? A median is usually a single number, no?
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RE: SG @ 2 – There are 30 different distinct “areas” defined by NWMLS. For this post series I break these into three groups as described in the first three bullets. Since the NWMLS gives a median for each of the 30 areas but not for my custom groups, I am providing the low and high medians of the areas that make up each group.
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RE: The Tim @ 3 – Ah! makes sense. And I was beginning to doubt my years of math schooling.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1 –
The difference between 1.5 bath rooms, and 1.75 is a shower. Not having a second shower is hardly functionally obsolete.
The mix has to do with price, and inventory available.
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real estate just seems so trivial and unimportant today..just disgusted
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By David Losh @ 5:
Buyers who have more than two people in their family want more than one place to shower to make things much easier in the morning. They settle for a 1.5 bath, but 1.75 and above is much more desirable for most buyers.
Earlier today I thought earlier the limitation on your knowledge was simply that you didn’t know squat about short sales and REOs because they were not common when you were an active agent. But this is ridiculous. That you were an agent this century and didn’t know that is somewhat incredible. I wrote about the distinction between 1.5 and 1.75 bath homes way back in 2007. I believe it was my second blog piece at the P-I.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/2007/09/13/it-was-the-best-of-markets-it-was-the-worst-of-markets-working-title-is-your-market-constipated/
As I wrote back then:
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7 – From the guy who predicted that the mortgage robosigning would be no big deal and that the robosigners were “just doing their job” and that “there was no fraud involved” you are so full of sheet. Rewriting history…glorifying yourself when you have been wrong on this blog on about just about everything that you have blathered about. Grow a conscience buffoon and go away.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7 –
You are quoting yourself as a source.
Facts, are facts, a shower is secondary to a toilet, because few plumbing situations allow for two people to shower at the same time.
Functionally obsolete was the wrong term, it doesn’t fit.
Again attempting to insult my experience in Real Estate matters, like short sales, or REOs, isn’t going to cut it.
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RE: Pegasus @ 8 – Do you really want to rehash why fraud wasn’t involved. Fraud on the court–yes, but technical fraud, no. A criminal act–yes, but technical fraud, no. English and the law obviously aren’t your strong suits.
And robosigning has not been a big deal here in Washington. Did I make a claim it wouldn’t be a big deal anywhere?
You really go a long way to make stuff up. Just doing their jobs? Total baloney.
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By David Losh @ 9:
1. I am showing that I understood more about real estate shortly after entering the industry than you do today.
2. You don’t understand how two people with two showers in a house (e.g. a 1.75 bath home) can shower at the same time? Seriously, that is something you don’t understand? I don’t even know how to respond to that. But I guess it explains why you don’t see 1.75 baths as being significantly better than 1.5 bath. That second shower apparently is useless! ;-)
3. Functionally obsolete is exactly the right phrase. Here is Ardell using the phrase in addressing a 1 bathroom home.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2011/12/28/case-shiller-seattle-home-prices-still-falling/comment-page-1/#comment-152792
You really don’t understand real estate.
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By David Losh @ 9:
You really should try using Google before trying to explain things you don’t understand. First hit “value one bath ‘functionally obsolete”
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/functional-obsolescence.asp#axzz2F5VDIlXz
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 1:
I ran the numbers for November, and the drop for 1.5- was only about 10% for 2012, compared to about 22% for 2011, and 1.75+ was 7 and 11 percent respectively.
That’s another data set that would suggest that entry level homes are being bid up more in this low inventory market. And they’ve been bid up more since July.
Same disclaimer.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 12 –
Google?
Are you saying one bath now, when before you were talking about 1.5, and 1.75 baths?
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11 – Sorry, Kary, but I’d have to go with Ray on this one – there are a lot of houses in which two showers on at the same time is not feasable, especially if they have older high-flow shower heads and/or a smaller water heater.
In my house, we have a tankless water heater. You don’t dare turn on so much as a sink tap while anybody is using the shower. I have partially eliminated that issue by using small electric tank heaters at the kitchen and bathroom sinks (not to mention the side benefit of true “instant-hot” water – it’s wonderful). I’m going back to an 80-gallon natural gas water heater at some point and that will handle two bathrooms in use simultaneously with no problem, and I will also then have some drinkable water on hand when the big one hits.
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“2. You don’t understand how two people with two showers in a house (e.g. a 1.75 bath home) can shower at the same time?”
Initially, this is an innocuous quote, however given the appropriate level of inspection, it is quite the curious quote…
Where I come from, two people in a shower can shower at the same time with one shower with no further discussion. I can provide validation via Burt Bacharach, Nancy Wilson or others as required. However I think I should be excluded from validation based solely on coolness!
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RE: redmondjp @ 15 – I’ve never used a tankless heater, but absent that or really corroded iron pipe which restricts flow, any house with two showers should be able to support two showers being used at the same time.
Does your tankless heater have some sort of a thermostatic control, either external or built in? I could see how varying flow would be problematic for such devices without that, and I’d assumed they all had that (but again I’ve never had such a system). On the topic of thermostatic control, that’s a good way to make a 40 gallon tank effectively bigger, and it also deals with the 1 in a billion chance that your hot water tank will develop bacteria. You turn the tank up to about 140 and then the device reduces the temperature out to the fixtures to a safer constant temperature. If seen that type of device installed in new construction water tanks for the bacteria reason.
But in any event, I’m talking about what most buyers want if they have more than two people in the household. Many buyers would actually prefer a 1.75 to a 2, but that’s a different matter.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 17 – What about sequential showers, one after the other? Does the water in the heater regenerate in real time as it is being used?
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RE: Blurtman @ 18 – Gas water heaters tend to regenerate quickly, but that too would depend on the flow. Also, the thermostatic valve I mentioned would help there too, because less cold water would be flowing into the tank.
On the topic of flow, it’s really velocity that is more important for the shower experience. When I was overseeing a re-plumbing project for a 100+ unit condo I personally tested probably a dozen low flow shower heads. Since the condo paid for hot water, we didn’t want to pick a shower head that 90% of the owners would throw away. This looks like the model we selected, but I’m not certain:
http://www.amazon.com/Earth-Massage-Water-Saving-Shower/dp/B0034UN6L8/ref=sr_1_12?ie=UTF8&qid=1355679062&sr=8-12&keywords=low+flow+shower+head
Also, this style of showerhead has great velocity, but I prefer the model that has a hook style valve handle to the push button.
http://www.amazon.com/Brass-Showerhead-1-5-gpm-Made/dp/B008N9S78C/ref=sr_1_205?s=kitchen-bath&ie=UTF8&qid=1355679492&sr=1-205&keywords=showerhead+1.5
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 19 –
Now we are onto gas hot water tanks, which takes us further down the road from the functional obsolescence comments.
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By David Losh @ 9:
I think insulting your experience in real estate matters is completely appropriate. If you were my agent and I told you I was looking for a 2ba and you said “don’t worry about that there is no plumbing that makes that feasible”. I would first spit on you and then fire you. Let’s suggest for a minute that your dumb sh×t statement were true. ..Losh.. When 1st world individuals cohabitat they often are looking for privacy or just separation from their kids. Maybe they want their kid to take a bath without having to worry about them swallowing a pubic hair. .. you know a little taste of civilization. One family sharing a bath is functionally obsolete for 1st world people. . Thats not you. . But that’s the market place.
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By David Losh @ 20:
Probably another thing you didn’t know. But in any case, someone asked about recovery, and I answered. You then responded with that stupid comment. Time for you to STFU troll.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 22 – RE: corndog @ 21 –
Again, this is the same response.
No one asked you about water heater recovery.
You did make the statement that lack of a shower was functional obsolescence, then back tracked, and finally changed the subject.
Your sales patter in comment 1 had nothing to do with this post, it was meant to impress. I’m not impressed, as usual.
I would like for other people, even people who have a different opinion than Kary Krismer to have a voice on this blog.
It just seems that none of us, including President Obama, know what we are talking about. Unless some one agrees with you they are stupid, they don’t understand, and are open to school yard insults.
This is what I mean by your lack of ability to be in the Real Estate business. Real Estate is a give, and take rather than right, or wrong. Real Estate is about negotiation, and you seem to miss that.
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RE: David Losh @ 23 – Losh Said. ” It just seems that none of us, including President Obama, know what we are talking about. Unless some one agrees with you they are stupid, they don’t understand, and are open to school yard….”
This is what I call the Democrat ‘victim shout out’ .. When a Democrat gets mentally owned their instinct is cry out with an appeal to the broader group of victims for support. This isn’t about the rest of the failure to launch crowd on here Losh. It’s about you. You made another stupid statement in post 9 and took a head shot. . Thats how blogs work. . For most people they’d try harder the next time. . You however aren’t trying at all. .I find that insulting. . So I’m going to keep hitting that lump of meat you call a head until you start thinking or shut up. .
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By David Losh @ 23:
Blurtman in post 18 did. Are you really that dense?
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By David Losh @ 23:
I did not backtrack at all. You just didn’t happen to know what the term functionally obsolete means. Shocking that a real estate agent wouldn’t know that term. Not surprising that you don’t know that since you don’t know how to value property.
As to change of topic, that’s directed by the subsequent comments. Are you that dense that you don’t understand that?
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 25 – RE: corndog @ 24 –
Same response different day.
It’s all about the insults.
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By David Losh @ 23:
Again, you just don’t understand. Tim’s post addresses price changes by area. I addressed them by type of house. That’s why post 1 starts out by saying it’s a slightly different way of looking at things!
The data I posted tends to indicate that in this low inventory market lower end houses are increasing in price more than higher end houses.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26 –
Yes, I do know what the term means, you got it mixed up, now want to cover your tracks. This is another typical Kary Krismer blog post by comment kind of day.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 28 –
Kary it’s simplistic sales patter, and you’re not very good at that.
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By David Losh @ 23:
What I don’t like is your trollish behavior.
Your first post here gives the incredibly insightful comment that the difference between a 1.5 bath and 1.75 bath house is a shower. I’m sure no one knew that. /sarc.
Then in the same post you indicate a total lack of understanding of the term “functionally obsolete.”
In your second post you again indicate your ignorance of the term functionally obsolete, and make the absurd moronic claim that two people cannot shower in a house at the same time.
In your third post you try to claim that I’m switching to one bath, because I found a link describing one bathroom houses as functionally obsolete. That’s true the link was one bath, but go back and look and I always uses 1.5- bath and 1.75+ bath. As a real estate agent with access to Matrix you should know that 1.5- means 1.5 or less. Apparently this is yet another thing you don’t understand.
In your fourth post you hit on the gas heater comment, claiming that takes us further away from functionally obsolete. News flash–there’s no reason to discuss functionally obsolete any longer. You didn’t understand the term. Apparently not even Google can help educate you. What functionally obsolete means is yet another thing you didn’t understand about real estate.
And the fifth post was this one where you wrongly claimed no one asked about about water heater recovery, and the other matters discussed here.
Simply put, I was trying to give people information about how lower end homes were reacting in this marketplace, and you go off on a bunch of total nonsense that just indicates you are are an ignorant uneducated fool.
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By David Losh @ 29:
David, quit pretending. You still don’t know what the term functionally obsolete means. If you did, you would admit you were wrong in post 9. Again it’s shocking that a real estate agent isn’t familiar with the term.
As to your next post, it’s not sales patter. This post by Tim is about statistics and how prices have changed over time. Is that sales patter? My posts were about an alternative way of looking at the data. You’re just too uneducated and unintelligent to understand statistics.
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Maybe it is time to take this usual bicker-fest to another venue. Tim, can we have a dedicated, ongoing, Losh-Krismer-Corndogs slapfight thread?
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RE: wreckingbull @ 33 – How about just telling Losh that if he doesn’t have something on-topic to discuss, that he should STFU.
Claiming every discussion of statistics is a sales pitch is moronic.
Losh manages to side track discussions. He did that on the pros and cons of doing a sort sale. He did that here. He’s a stupid troll–nothing more.
And when it comes to Corndog and Losh, Corndog just says what the rest of us think when we read Losh’s posts. It may not be polite, but it is 100% accurate.
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