Consumer Confidence: Expectations Dipped in December

It’s time for another update of our interactive chart of Consumer Confidence. You can drag the time sliders below the chart to view data going all the way back to 1998.

Here’s the data as of December:

At 62.8, the Present Situation Index has gained 211% from its December 2009 low point, but still sits well below 100. The index is now slightly above the pre-crash low point of 59.7 in September 2003, and at roughly the same place it was in September 2008. Meanwhile, the expectations index took a dive in December, probably thanks to the “fiscal cliff” nonsense that was dominating the media all month.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

11 comments:

  1. 1

    It will skyrocket to 150 by January. We now have the one Trillion dollar platinum coin in our economic arsenal. /sarc

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  2. 2
    sniffy says:

    Coincidentally, my confidence that I’ll be able to buy a house next year also dipped over the past month thanks to the low inventory situation.

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  3. 3
    Mike says:

    By sniffy @ 2:

    Coincidentally, my confidence that I’ll be able to buy a house next year also dipped over the past month thanks to the low inventory situation.

    My original plan for 2012 was to wait until November and look for a good deal when the market slowed over the winter. I’m glad I didn’t do that.

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  4. 4
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1 – What is sadly telling is the expectation by at least some blog readers that the USG will have to purchase $1 trllion of platinum to make the coin. Unbelievable!

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  5. 5

    RE: Blurtman @ 4 – LOL. I don’t know if this is true, but someone on TV claimed that if it were that much platinum, you could make a 787 out of that much metal.

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  6. 6

    Meanwhile, the expectations index took a dive in December, probably thanks to the “fiscal cliff” nonsense that was dominating the media all month.

    I wonder how much of it is political? Expectations rose in 2012 when about half of the country was looking forward to a new President. They fell when they learned we’d be going through four more years like the last four years–gridlock and slow growth.

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  7. 7
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5 – Yes, but it is a troubling indication that people really do not understand fiat currency at all. That does it. I am moving to Dominica.

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  8. 8

    RE: Blurtman @ 7 – People don’t understand a lot of things.

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  9. 9
    softwarengineer says:

    A Friend of Mine Labels Me the “Glass Half Empty” Rather Than a Half Full Personality

    Perhaps that’s true. On the other hand though, the consumer confidence data is fairly flat trending since the 07/08 collapse period.

    Looking at December dips is insightful, but YOY regression analysis trending since 08 is still approximately flat with “no deterioration”. Or to the half empty personality, “no improvement”.

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  10. 10
    No Name Guy says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 4

    Read Charles Hugh Smith’s commentary today…..great explanation of the fallacy of those clowns and their huge denomination coins.

    Or, for the simpletons (not you Blurt, you get it): Take a blank slug from an Eisenhower “silver” dollar (1971 to 1978) and change the denomination to, let’s say, $1,000. And there you have “turning” 20.15 cents of material (the nickel and copper melt value per coinflation) into a thousand bucks. Or even better, use the current blanks for the Presidential dollar coins – only 6 cents and change of melt value in them. The same as hitting ctrl P on the Fed’s printing machine.

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  11. 11

    RE: No Name Guy @ 10 – A link would be nice, since he appears to have more than one site. Was it the Martian piece?

    I wonder what the reaction would be of the markets if they actually tried it? Particularly those currently buying our debt.

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