Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

30 responses to “Mid-Week Open Thread (2013-01-16)”

  1. Kary L. Krismer

    Apparently being a glutton for punishment, I’m going to post my last response in the Monday thread here, because Losh probably doesn’t know how to get to old open threads.

    By David Losh @ 27:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 25 – Get a clue Kary the Seattle Weekly article was a different thing. You’re just trying to spin this..

    I shouldn’t ask, but in what way do you think it was different? That there were multiple transactions? That only matters for the equity skimming, where you need three transactions within a certain period. For what we’re talking about, the first transaction is actionable, even if it’s the only transaction ever.

    You’re the one who needs to get a clue. The Distressed Property Law is way too complicated for you to even begin to understand it.

    BTW, you said earlier that you’ve been following me for years. You should know then that I was one of the major critics of the Distressed Property Law when it passed, and that they amended it a year later. What you probably don’t know, because I don’t believe I’ve mentioned it, is I was heavily involved with WR at the time, and their efforts to get the law amended. WR didn’t get everything I had hoped for in those amendments, but what they did get went a long way to protecting most agents and most buyers.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  2. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1

    Ardell presented a strategy of buying property. She suggested some people, not her, could pay $400K for a property worth $550K because the property needs work.

    That is totally different than a person who paid a home owner $40K for a $300K property. That is an out, and out property swindle, so it is vastly different than the strategy Ardell presented.

    Many properties can use, or need $100K worth of work, and more. Heck I know people who have spent a $100K on a kitchen remodel.

    The fact you can’t make the distinction speaks volumes about your abilities.

    BTW, you aren’t the only one who protested the Distressed Property Law. You’re engaged in another attempt to make yourself sound important, but without a working knowledge of this law.

    If you want to flog this dead horse some more, great, but to me it’s just childish.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  3. softwarengineer

    FAA In Japan Investigating the 787 Today

    Remember when MOR Furniture was a Yankee Ingenuity Boeing Subcontractor called Flow Systems, using a water spray technology to cut aluminum….now Lord Only Knows where in the world they’re gluing composites to assemble…its plan: 90% outsourced.

    Outsourcing the 787 was implemented [primary fault] by the Boeing CEO Alan Mulally….who got the heck out of there and joined Ford after his bad decision making….then two subsequent CEOs were fired by Boeing for this 787 fiasco.

    A retired senior Boeing engineer warned Boeing: do not use composites on the 787, it won’t work. They called him a nut.

    No surprise here, Mulally wants more outsourcing of Fords too.

    http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2010/04/20/2003470983

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  4. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 2:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1 – Ardell presented a strategy of buying property. She suggested some people, not her, could pay $400K for a property worth $550K because the property needs work.

    That is totally different than a person who paid a home owner $40K for a $300K property.

    Yes, David, that would be totally different, but that’s not the fact pattern Ardell stated. She said: ” Let’s say the house is worth $550,000. They offer them $400,000.” Later she mentioned that they could leave whatever they wanted–not clean up basically. Do you get paid $150,000 very often to haul junk out of a single house?

    We’ve gone over this already, but you keep making the same argument over and over and over. You’re getting to be like pfft–no memory.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  5. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4

    You brought this up, in this new thread.

    BTW there is no “that’s not the fact pattern Ardell stated.”

    She presented a reasonable example of how to build sweat equity.

    Yes, we get paid really well to haul stuff, but again that wasn’t all she presented.

    You’re completely lost here in your spinning wheels. Don’t call me out if you don’t have anything real to say.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  6. David Losh

    Yes I have spent a $160K to prepare a property for sale. My net was a paltry $40K.

    We have also been paid up to $60K for our work, while the owner paid other contractors more for things like plumbing, electrical, and kitchens. We have worked on conservatively hundreds of properties, and over the course on my career maybe a thousand.

    Yes, it’s very easy to spend over $100K on a distressed property.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  7. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 5:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4

    You brought this up, in this new thread.

    BTW there is no “thatâ��s not the fact pattern Ardell stated.”

    She presented a reasonable example of how to build sweat equity.

    Technically, yes I brought it up in this thread, but that’s because I was continuing it from the Monday thread. You first brought up the distressed property law in the Monday thread. Your statement is about as close to a lie as you can get.

    And that is exactly what Ardel said. Do you not understand what quote marks indicate?

    Yes, we get paid really well to haul stuff, but again that wasn’t all she presented.

    So, you’re saying you get paid $150,000 to haul junk from a single house. That was the question asked, and you answered affirmatively. Now you’re moving beyond merely being a troll to being a F’n liar.

    You’re completely lost here in your spinning wheels. Don’t call me out if you don’t have anything real to say.

    Thank you Monty Python’s Black Knight!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  8. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 6:

    Yes I have spent a $160K to prepare a property for sale. My net was a paltry $40K. .

    Not the question asked. I asked you: ” Do you get paid $150,000 very often to haul junk out of a single house?” Ardell indicated that the advantage to the sellers was they could leave whatever personal property they wanted when they moved. They would basically be losing $150,000 of equity for that right.

    I suggest you go back and read what Ardell’s fact pattern was that I responded to. Changing her fact pattern doesn’t work any better than changing my question to you.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  9. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7

    You are being absolutely ridiculous. There is no fact pattern, Ardell outlined a strategy.

    I said we get paid well to haul trash, but that wasn’t Ardell’s only point.

    You’re just nit picking sentences because once again your cornered in your own thoughts.

    I have no idea what happened to you here, but you aren’t making much sense.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  10. Kary L. Krismer

    It’s both a fact pattern and a strategy–and the strategy applied to the fact pattern possibly violates the distressed property law.

    By ARDELL @ 29:

    RE: Erik @ 28

    [fact pattern]I don’t do this and never have done it, but I know a lot of guys who buy houses cheap and flip them around the Country. They drive around in GOOD areas, the best areas even. They look for signs of someone not having enough money to keep up with their homes. Patched roof, tall grass, weeds, gutters hanging down, fence pieces missing and fence leaning over.

    Then they knock on the door and hand the people a written offer. Let’s say the house is worth $550,000. They offer them $400,000. Oh…and it has to be someone with equity. So they look for OLD people who have owned their home a long time and maybe have no mortgage at all. But from the look of the place, they are having a hard time just paying the electric bill.[/fact pattern]

    [strategy]One of the reasons they don’t sell is they can’t face the task of getting it ready for market. But when someone hands them an offer and they can walk off with $400,000 without having to clean or repair anything…totally “as-is”. They take what they want ONLY and leave everything else. All their crap stays.

    They are happy to walk away with $400,000 and their prized possessions with no work involved, and you get a great deal.

    That is the standard for the agents I know who do that. They buy them for themselves, fix them up fast and resell them. I have not met any female agents who do this, but I have met LOTS of guys who do this.

    So the first step is get a real estate license. You can’t be in the business of buying and flipping using agents. You need a license or you waste too much money on the in and out fees and don’t have ready access to all the info you need. The serious players have a license they use ONLY for themselves, and they hire an agent to sell the pretty flip version so they can get E and O insurance on the sale.[/strategy]

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  11. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10 – To late to edit, Please convert “strategy” to “scam.” ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  12. Kary L. Krismer

    Boeing’s bad decisions are really coming to down on them now. Just when you think the 787 program has the worst is behind it . . ..

    And I can’t imagine a worse time for the company–when they’re negotiating with SEEPA. A strike right now would be total disaster. So given the quality of Boeing management, we’ll probably see a lockout within a week. ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  13. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    “One of the reasons they don’t sell is they can’t face the task of getting it ready for market. But when someone hands them an offer and they can walk off with $400,000 without having to clean or repair anything…totally “as-is”. They take what they want ONLY and leave everything else. All their crap stays.

    They are happy to walk away with $400,000 and their prized possessions with no work involved, and you get a great deal.”

    So, you are a funny guy to point out all of the faults in the comments you’ve made.

    I suppose I’m supposed go through your fifty comments or so to nit pick where you’ve just shown your mistakes, but you are a waste of time.

    Like I said I have personally spent $160K to get a property to market, for a net return of $40K. I know that was a fair deal, and I encourage every one to do fair deals.

    You still don’t get it, so why waste your time with it.

    According to you people should just avoid properties that need work, and pay attention to the Distressed Property Law, which doesn’t apply here.

    This is a scenario, There are no facts presented into evidence, counselor, it’s just what some people do.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  14. softwarengineer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 12

    Boeing Will Pull a Toyota?

    And blame the electrical failure on the floor mats…..LOL

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  15. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: David Losh @ 13 – Whatever, David. Arguing with you has gone well beyond pointless. Fortunately Erik, who I was warning, was willing to listen, and actually made an attempt to understand. You’ve done neither.

    But here’s a simple English lesson. “Is worth $550,000″ is present tense. That means it’s what it is worth at the time, not after cleaning it up and fixing it up. If that’s what Ardell meant to say, she presumably would have said “would be worth $550,000.” That is future tense.

    But change the facts all you want, and ignore what I say at your peril. I don’t really care if some attorney sues you into and out of bankruptcy. I might even help them.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  16. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 15

    Like I said that is the most ridicuous nit picking you have made.

    You presented the law badly, without any real world frame of reference.

    You attempted to scare Erik which he pointed out to you.

    You simply wanted to turn the discussion around to you.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  17. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 16:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 15 – Like I said that is the most ridicuous nit picking you have made.

    Understanding simple English is not nitpicking. Not understanding simple English is moronic.

    When the law is applied to facts, the facts are very important. I agreed early on that if you changed Ardell’s facts to reduce the current value of the property that the Distressed Property law would not be a concern. That went over your head.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  18. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 17 – Why are you trying to bring up the same nonsense again? It was already addressed.

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 95:

    By David Losh @ 92:
    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 90

    Kary, sorry, give it up, get a clue, read a little bit, read the comments, then get back to me on that 82% Fair Market Value, because a property is worth what it will sell for. If it’s $550K, but needs $150K worth of work then the Fair Market Value is $400K.

    Nothing in the fact pattern said the house needed $150,000 of work. The fact pattern was that the buyer offers to buy a house worth $550,000 for $400,000. For all we know, fixed up the buyer might sell it for $700,000. Ardell didn’t say.

    But let’s assume you’re right–that’s what Ardell intended. Do we really need rather obvious advise that you can buy a fixer and fix it to make money? Talk about stating the obvious. That was not seemingly Ardell’s point.

    But you’re still making the same nonsense arguments.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  19. ChrisM

    Hmm, I think this may be the best “steal” I’ve seen from an auction:

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Woodland/460-Empress-Ln-98674/home/14836266

    as featured in this story: http://www.columbian.com/news/2013/jan/17/an-empress-reigns-again-in-woodland-weddings/

    Taken back by the bank for 1.3M, it finally sold on MLS for 231K. Ouch! Property taxes must be a killer compared to the mortgage!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  20. softwarengineer

    RE: ChrisM @ 18

    The Utilities On That Monster Would Bother Me Worse Than the Property Taxes

    They’ll have to 3 yr avg the property tax downward to the assessed value….eventually down to like $4K/yr….

    But the monster utility bill to heat and air condition it keep on rising YOY, as does the sun….

    Upkeep on a giant house is horrifying too, roof replacement would require a 2nd mortgage…..

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  21. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 17

    You’ve just gone nutsy, there is no response to this, any more than there was a response when you first got cornered what fifty, or sixty comments ago.

    Don’t call me out when you have nothing to say.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  22. wreckingbull

    RE: softwarengineer @ 19 – The worst part about the place is that it is in Woodland. Woodland is one of two places in our great state that has ever creeped me out. I was fishing the Lewis River and met some real ‘fine’ characters. I am not quite sure why a bride would want to get married there.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  23. softwarengineer

    The Internet Appears to Be Useless to Estimate Parking Costs at Downtown Seattle Condos, Like Olive 8

    The HOA charges on a $0.5M 2 bdrm are like approx $820/mo [55 cents a foot].
    The club charges aren’t specified at the Olive 8.
    Neither is parking, albeit the Hyatt Hotel [shares space with Olive 8] reports like $40/day parking.

    I was just curious.

    Add in mortgage payment after you figure out the costs above….

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  24. Sparky

    Maybe The Tim can start a Kary vs. Losh & Pegasus Open Thread to go along with the Politics & Economics and the Healthcare open threads? That way Kary doesn’t have to pull the last post from the previous open thread into the new open thread, and any actually interesting discussion won’t get buried in childlike namecalling?

    I used to read seattlebubble daily, but now I just catch up on the headlines periodically, and pretty much ignore the “discussion.”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  25. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 21:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 17

    You’ve just gone nutsy, there is no response to this, any more than there was a response when you first got cornered what fifty, or sixty comments ago.

    Don’t call me out when you have nothing to say.

    Losh, quit being Monty Python’s Black Knight. You’ve gotten your ass kicked again, but again you’re too stupid to realize it. Typical Losh behavior.

    That entire post is BS and a waste of everyone’s time.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  26. redmondjp

    RE: wreckingbull @ 22 – I checked out their website and all I can say is “Good luck to them!” Their indoor wedding space is TINY, and the outdoor space will only be usable for a few months out of the year. Plus, being up on the hill overlooking Interstate 5, there is probably a fairly high amount of freeway noise outdoors there. Also, the outdoor wedding area is on the southwest side of the building, up on a hill, directly exposed to prevailing winds. I just don’t see this place pencilling out financially (see below).

    My now-wife used to work and live at a similar-sized historic mansion that used to be a B&B and also hosted weddings on the weekends (and it could hold much larger events indoors). Even with the lucrative wedding/catering business, they couldn’t make it, and the building is now an adult family home (higher and more stable cash flow). Useless trivia: It also happens to be the location that Microsoft had their “A-ha, we’ve discovered the internet” offsite meeting at in 1995. The piano that silently sat in that same room now resides in my front room (oh that it could remember, and tell about it too).

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  27. David Losh

    RE: Sparky @ 24

    I second that, and once again let me apologize, it’s my fault no one eleses.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  28. ricklind

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 1:

    Apparently being a glutton for punishment…

    You got that right, baby!

    Book ‘em, Danno.

    Fel temp…

    Rick

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  29. ricklind

    By Sparky @ 24:

    Maybe The Tim can start a Kary vs. Losh & Pegasus Open Thread to go along with the Politics & Economics and the Healthcare open threads? That way Kary doesn’t have to pull the last post from the previous open thread into the new open thread, and any actually interesting discussion won’t get buried in childlike namecalling?

    snip…

    I will personally kick in 100 bucks to buy you gents a room.

    It’s a matter of airing your laundry in public. It may be important to you, but most of us don’t care a humanly produced tootsie roll. Why don’t you trade emails and continue off line?

    Fel Temp,

    Rick

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  30. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ricklind @ 29 – I have little interest in engaging Losh here or anywhere else. He just keeps coming though with more and more nonsense. He’s the Black Knight.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

Leave a Reply

Do you want a nifty avatar picture next to your name, instead of a photograph of Tim's dog? Just sign up with Gravatar, and make sure to use the same email address in the form below. It's that easy!

Please read the rules before posting a comment.

You have 15 comments remaining on this post.

Archives