Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Up Again in November

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to November data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 0.5% October to November.
Up 7.4% YOY.
Down 25.9% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 1.2% from October to November and year-over-year prices were down 6.3%.

It is a bit surprising to see prices increase between October and November. The last time that happened was in 2005, right in the peak of the buying frenzy (but a couple of years before prices peaked).

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle moved toward the front of the pack for month-over-month changes in November.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In November, ten of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (the same number as October):

  • Phoenix at +22.8%
  • San Francisco at +12.7%
  • Detroit at +11.9%
  • Minneapolis at +11.1%
  • Las Vegas at +10.0%
  • Miami at +9.9%
  • San Diego at +8.0%
  • Denver at +7.8%
  • Los Angeles at +7.7%
  • Atlanta, GA at +7.6%

Nine cities gained less than Seattle (or were falling) as of November: Tampa, Portland, Dallas, Charlotte, Washington DC, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, and New York. New York is now the only city still falling year-over-year.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through November.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the sixty-four months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 25.9%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of November: Still basically February 2005.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.29.2013)

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

14 comments:

  1. 1
    ray pepper says:

    up up up…Were all gonna be rich, Rich, RICH!!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    David Losh says:

    Maybe I’ll finally be able to sell my house, and rent a nice apartment someplace!!!!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    Carl says:

    As a property owner, all I want is 3% a year. That isn’t too much to ask, is it? I miss the 80’s and 90’s. I would much rather be a turtle than a hare.

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  4. 4

    We can Even Add More Inventory to the Seattle Market Too

    Short Sellers beware though….your credit rating plummets after a sale and it affects:

    Car Insurance rates
    Future Mortgage Approval*
    Credit Cards*
    Car Loans*
    Cell Phone Plans Denied
    Job Hunting Opportunities Lost

    *Denied access or interest rate hike

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-biggest-ways-bad-credit-110012930.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5
    Erik says:

    RE: ray pepper @ 1
    Good call. I was thinking the same thing. Sell my place, rent until the market dumps and buy low.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    Erik says:

    RE: Carl @ 3
    I wouldn’t count on it with all the Notice of Trustee Sales(NTS) coming down the pipe. This gain is mostly driven by supply and demand. Once the NTS homes reach the market, we will go back down to our low point again we saw in late 2011 and early 2012.

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  7. 7

    RE: Erik @ 5

    Be Careful Erik

    If the price doesn’t plummet by about 10%, the moving, relocation, staging and escrow will eat up the profits….

    BTW, I’m not saying it won’t either….

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  8. 8
    Plymster says:

    RE: Erik @ 6 – King County has 2807 active listings according to a Redfin search: http://www.redfin.com/homes-for-sale#!disp_mode=M&market=seattle&num_baths=1.0&region_id=118&region_type=5&uipt=1&v=8

    King County has an additional 590 foreclosed homes that are owned by the banks: http://www.redfin.com/homes-for-sale#!disp_mode=M&market=seattle&num_baths=1.0&region_id=118&region_type=5&sf=3,4&uipt=1&v=8

    Many of these homes (more than 20%) have been bank owned for over 90 days without being listed for sale. The banks aren’t listing these houses, but are paying taxes and maintenance on them. This is what they have actively foreclosed, and doesn’t take into account those homes that are delinquent but have had no action taken (I know of at least one acquaintance who hasn’t paid her mortgage for over 2 years), or are in the foreclosure process.

    NTS don’t matter if they’re not hitting the market. The Fed and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (who hold most of the mortgages now across the nation) have bottomless pockets, and can carry these costs until every taxpayer is living in a cardboard box behind an abandoned home. Inventory suppression is now a fundamental part of our “free” market.

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  9. 9
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 7RE: softwarengineer @ 7
    I agree. I have been back and forth on whether it is feasible to sell, move, and rebuy or not. It’s a tough call.

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  10. 10
    whatsmyname says:

    By Plymster @ 8:

    NTS don’t matter if they’re not hitting the market. The Fed and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (who hold most of the mortgages now across the nation) have bottomless pockets, and can carry these costs until every taxpayer is living in a cardboard box behind an abandoned home. Inventory suppression is now a fundamental part of our “free” market.

    Contact me offline about a spacious yet affordable cardboard box suitable for your occupancy behind the abandoned home of your choice. I will need to verify that you are an actual taxpayer. They may not be making more of these, so do not delay.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    2kt says:

    RE: Plymster @ 8
    Some may call it prudent inventory management.

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  12. 12
    corndogs says:

    RE: Erik @ 6 – “I wouldn’t count on it with all the Notice of Trustee Sales(NTS) coming down the pipe. This gain is mostly driven by supply and demand. Once the NTS homes reach the market, we will go back down to our low point again we saw in late 2011 and early 2012.”

    First of all Erik the idiom is “coming down the pike”, not pipe. Your NTSs will not generate enough available inventory to get us back to last years inventory or prices. People who bought well in 2011/2012, will continue to see average price increases exceeding 3%. As sure as sh#t in your hardhat.

    It would be ‘who of’ you to actually study things a bit, Erik, like ‘yours post to’. I hope that explaining this to you hasn’t been an exercise in ‘fertility’. I feel like I’m getting deja vu all over again.

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  13. 13
    Young Gun says:

    I am one of the few who hoped prices would stay low until 2020. It has quickly turned and prices are on the rise. Hopefully the trickle of the “shaddow inventory” will keep prices suppressed. Sitting on your hands waiting for the market to go down seems like a bad choice. They estimate and I agree that we will see 20 percent in the next few years. We will see…

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  14. 14
    Erik says:

    RE: Corndogs @ 12
    You are saying that there won’t be enough coming down the pipe to drive down prices. :) I was thinking it may drive down prices again since there are so many.
    I don’t know any other way to research these things then to read what is on here and make a guess. You are ornery, but it seems like you know some stuff about real estate. I’m sure the Tim will post Notice of Trustee Sales on here again. Last time he posted them, it wasn’t that much less the maximum NTSs. Unless the bank raises the price of the NTSs, I think it will drive prices back down again.

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