Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

56 responses to “Case-Shiller Tiers: All Three Tiers Defy Seasonality”

  1. corndogs

    Question:
    How many times has the Seattle Case-Shiller index plummeted in the 1st half of the year?

    Answer:
    Never.

    Good luck getting back to that 2011 price level boys!

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  2. David B.

    Maybe some moderate price increases will encourage some fence-sitters to list their properties and thus help with the (lack of) inventory issue.

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  3. No Name Guy

    RE: corndogs @ 1

    Uhhhh…..how about 2008 and 2009?

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  4. Ira Sacharoff

    By David B. @ 2:

    Maybe some moderate price increases will encourage some fence-sitters to list their properties and thus help with the (lack of) inventory issue.

    I think that’s a reasonable expectation. Just as interest rates can’t stay this low forever, neither can inventory.

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  5. siddharta

    By David B. @ 2:

    Maybe some moderate price increases will encourage some fence-sitters to list their properties and thus help with the (lack of) inventory issue.

    Prices have to stagnate for at least 3-4 months for that to happen. With the craziness in the market right now, sellers will wait and prefer to rent their place.

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  6. Erik

    RE: No Name Guy @ 3
    Yeah, you are right. Take what Corndogs says with a grain of salt. He likes to make a lot of claims that sound good until you check his facts and realize it is total BS. The graph I looked at of schiller-price index went down in the beginning of the year in 2008 and 2009. Good job on sniffing that one out.

    It has gone down every year since 2006 according to this graph.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Case-Shiller_index.png

    Corndogs couldn’t be more wrong.

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  7. Erik

    RE: No Name Guy @ 3
    Corndogs has a way of disappearing when the facts come out. Lets see if he comes back to distort the facts to make it like he’s not wrong. My guess is that he pretends he’s got better things to do so he isn’t held accountable.

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  8. whatsmyname

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 4

    http://www.seattlepi.com/realestate/article/Real-estate-profile-Jan-29-2013-4233277.php

    Four for under $550,000. Inventory problem solved. You’re welcome.

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  9. HappyRenter

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 4:

    By David B. @ 2:
    Maybe some moderate price increases will encourage some fence-sitters to list their properties and thus help with the (lack of) inventory issue.

    I think that’s a reasonable expectation. Just as interest rates can’t stay this low forever, neither can inventory.

    According to an analysis by a Vanguard blog, “interest rates in Japan have remained extremely low”:

    http://www.vanguardblog.com/2012.07.30/the-outlook-for-bonds-and-what-to-do-about-it.html

    There is no reason why this should not happen in the US, as well. Lots of people I talk to think that the US will go back to what it was like in 2005 concerning interest rates and the real estate market. It might not happen for 10-20 years or, who knows, even longer.

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  10. corndogs

    RE: HappyRenter @ 9 – Thumbs up for happy renter, thumbs down for IRA…

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  11. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: HappyRenter @ 9
    I’m not expecting dramatic changes. Just that with modest increases in prices, which we’re seeing, we’ll see a modest increase in inventory, as either sellers who bought a few years back will be in better position to sell, or investors who bought more recently will want to take profits.

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  12. softwarengineer

    I Read All the Blogs Above and I’m Still Totally Confused

    Nobody can convince me they can predict this market up or down with a trend data the size of an atom.

    Now, if you want to buy a house, buy it…..but don’t allege on Seattle Bubble that now was the perfect time to buy and yes, I know it was the price bottom from the data.

    Hades, fortune tellers could have a better track record analyzing trends with this puny data field of restricted inventory units. Looks like San Francisco is the same, only worse.

    Let’s hope the 49ers have a better scope on the Ravens for defense than a mere handful of unrelated offensive play data. Otherwise their team’s prediction winning odds went down the tolilet too.

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  13. David B.

    By softwarengineer @ 12:

    Nobody can convince me they can predict this market up or down with a trend data the size of an atom.

    Now, if you want to buy a house, buy it…..but don’t allege on Seattle Bubble that now was the perfect time to buy and yes, I know it was the price bottom from the data.

    Sometimes, it’s pretty obvious what’s happening in a market. Like when everyone is screaming “buy now or be priced out forever!” it’s a pretty sure sign of a bubble. I’d be inclined to sit out such a market and wait for sanity to return even if I were in the market for a house.

    But mostly, you’re correct: it’s impossible to tell what the market is going to do, and buying a home should be a decision based strictly on what’s best for you, not on any attempts to time the market.

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  14. Erik

    RE: softwarengineer @ 12
    I disagree. Reading seattlebubble daily really helped me to make an informed decision when to buy. The answers are not clear, but the research and comments on here really helped me make an informed decision. I wanted to buy 2009. I waited until november 2011 and bought on the eastside. I am really glad i read the data and commentary on this website. So far, I think my timing was perfect, but we’ll see.

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  15. corndogs

    RE: David B. @ 13 – ‘But mostly, you’re correct: it’s impossible to tell what the market is going to do, and buying a home should be a decision based strictly on what’s best for you, not on any attempts to time the market.’

    Speak for yourself Davie B. Corndog waited 9 years in-between purchases. Bought a high tier REO in Feb 2012. Timing…. is very important. people who dumped in some cash in 2007 have a completely different financial reality than Corndog. Corndog bought rentals prior to 2003 and has been collecting sweaty handfuls of renter cash for a dozen years. So Corndogs new house is essentially free.

    Corndog is who teen-Erik aspires to be.

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  16. Erik

    RE: corndogs @ 15
    Ha ha ha. If that is your situation, teen-Erik would like to achieve what you have achieved. I would like to do what you did for the next cycle. Maybe teen-Erik will be all growed up and do what Corndogs was able to do in 2016?

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  17. David Losh

    RE: David B. @ 13

    There will be a time, I think pretty soon, when we will be in a buyers market again. Real Estate has turned on a dime in the past few years which adds to the volitility that has allowed for prices to increase dramatically.

    For whatever reason there will be an increase in inventory from people, and bank owned, or short sale approval, or investors claiming some profits when the market will open up.

    Once all the arrows on the charts, that are everywhere on the internet, turn towards the buyer’s favor, you’ll see more properties come onto the market until they dry up again to do increased expectations.

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  18. David Losh

    RE: Erik @ 14

    Never be influenced by someone elses insecurities.

    The second thing is that a buyer I was working with couldn’t find a thing to buy that was decent for a good price in 2009, 2010, but bought this last year in November.

    It was a fluke in the market when inventory creeped up and prices stabalized. He bought more house for a lower price than he could have before.

    For him waiting helped a lot, but he was constantly looking during that time.

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  19. Erik

    RE: David Losh @ 18
    That sounds very similar to my situation. Started looking in 2009 and finally bought in November 2011. It takes a lot of time to find a good deal. There really isn’t a shortcut. If there was, i’m sure everyone would do it.

    When the market inventory increases I will be ready to buy again.

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  20. corndogs

    RE: David Losh @ 17

    Losh,

    What I love about your posts, is they give me a glimpse into the far distance past, before man had developed reasoning skills. Before there were institutions of learning, lo before there were written records. When I read your posts, I can almost hear an old Indian chief bombed out on peyote. All I have to do is change a few words in your sentences, and you could be Sitting Bull.

    “There will be a time, I think pretty soon, when we will be in a buyers market again. Real Estate has turned on a dime in the past few years which adds to the volitility that has allowed for prices to increase dramatically.”

    There will be a time, soon I think, when buffalo will roam again. The White man killed many and the spirits of the Buffalo are angry and their blood cries out from the ground.

    “For whatever reason there will be an increase in inventory from people, and bank owned, or short sale approval, or investors claiming some profits when the market will open up.”

    Soon buffalo spirits will become flesh again, more than before, from the mountains and the sea and from the sky..

    “Once all the arrows on the charts, that are everywhere on the internet, turn towards the buyer’s favor, you’ll see more properties come onto the market until they dry up again to do increased expectations.”

    “and you will see their image in the sky, and on the face of the water, and you will know that they come, and the fire sticks of the pale skin will not fire, no more forever.

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  21. David Losh

    RE: corndogs @ 20

    Like with the guy I was showing properties in 2009, he was all for a $204K pooper that I had to talk him out of. It needed at least $50K to make it livable. There were no carpets in the basement, which indicated water damage to me, yet agents were all over the place. It sold with multiple offers.

    In November he was the only offer on a property that had been worked on over a ten year period, had an out building, plumbed, and wired, for $205K, better location.

    Here’s what’s going to happen, just like it has for the past five years.

    Sellers are going to look at today’s high prices, I mean these ridiculously high prices, that are based on no economic reasoning what so ever, and decide this is going to be as good as it gets.

    The economy is no better than it was in 2004, as a matter of fact it’s worse, and yet prices keep rising, buyers keep sending in multiple offers.

    There is a point where the volitility will once again change to a buyers market from a seller’s market. It should be happening now, we are way past due, but exhuberance continues.

    What I don’t like about you is that you never have anything to say. You’re insecure, change your story, and insult people.

    In the internet world you are a very typical “character” who adds content so we give you a break. You should never mistake that for being taken seriously.

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  22. Erik

    RE: corndogs @ 20
    You are a good writer Corndogs. You could totally write a book about real estate and make it very entertaining and it would all seem true to people that don’t know a lot about real estate.

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  23. corndogs

    RE: Erik @ 22 – Right teen-Erik. You’re the guy that bought his house last year and is going to sell it this year at a 10% profit and pay the 10% transaction costs. You’re a prodigy, indeed. Then you’re going to go into the flipping business with your co-worker because he’s got the money and you got the know-how….. that you apparently picked up by reading posts on Seattle Bubble dot com..

    If you keep taking advice from Losh, you’re going to end up shacked up with an illegal alien, sucking off SSI disability while she cleans houses to keep your lights on…. the bright spot of your day (in between naps) will be to post to Seattle Bubble as a form of escapism. A place where you can pretend to be part of a world that you really can’t understand or afford to participate in.

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  24. corndogs

    RE: David Losh @ 21 – “Like with the guy I was showing properties in 2009, he was all for a $204K pooper that I had to talk him out of. It needed at least $50K to make it livable. There were no carpets in the basement, which indicated water damage to me, yet agents were all over the place. It sold with multiple offers. ”

    Losh, if you had any clue as to what a good deal was or what it actually cost to improve a property to sell it, you wouldn’t be running a maid service, shacked up in the dump your in.

    The thing that makes me shake my head the most about listening to your BS this last year or so is I have an acquaintance that has flipped three houses since I’ve been on this site. He’s made enough money on those three houses to buy his own house for cash and he now has two more houses that he’s finishing up that he’s going to keep and rent. He has done all of that in the last two years while you’ve been blabbing on Seattle Bubble, trying to convince people that you are some kind of expert in regards to real estate.

    Almost every house this guy bought had water issues in the basement. In fact he’d hope to find something like that so an idiot like you would be deterred. One house didn’t have a foundation AT ALL. He jacked the house up and poured a foundation, by himself. None of these places cost anywhere near $50,000 to renovate. This guy builds everything himself, cabinets from old growth fir reclaimed from the house, he may add a bedroom, move the kitchen. He does all of this himself, with very little material cost.

    He can do all this, because unlike you, he has skills and a brain. Apparently, he really is a real estate expert.

    Losh, I do have some sympathy for you, you are near the end of your life, you are a little desperate because you feel your failed end game closing end. So it’s understandable that you are stubbornly reaching out there trying to get a handle on things and maybe make sense of the world and gain acceptance from some strangers on the WWW but I want you to know, it’s OK to give up.

    You should treat yourself to a long peaceful Sunday drive in your garage with the door shut

    .

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  25. wreckingbull

    By corndogs @ 24:

    You should treat yourself to a long peaceful Sunday drive in your garage with the door shut

    I was always amazed we lasted this long (six years) without the comment sections turning into a cesspool. I suppose it was just a matter of time before conversation slumped to the lowest common denominator. We were on borrowed time.

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  26. Kary L. Krismer

    By corndogs @ 24:

    Almost every house this guy bought had water issues in the basement. In fact he’d hope to find something like that so an idiot like you would be deterred. One house didn’t have a foundation AT ALL.

    I’ve often thought it a good strategy for flippers to go for houses that are in a condition where the only financing would be a rehab loan. That way the financed buyers are not likely to push up the price. But what I was thinking of was something a bit more basic, like no furnace or no hot water tank.

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  27. Kary L. Krismer

    By wreckingbull @ 25:

    By corndogs @ 24:

    You should treat yourself to a long peaceful Sunday drive in your garage with the door shut

    I was always amazed we lasted this long (six years) without the comment sections turning into a cesspool. I suppose it was just a matter of time before conversation slumped to the lowest common denominator. We were on borrowed time.

    Maybe Corndog might have meant: “You should treat yourself to a long peaceful Sunday drive with your garage door shut, all your doors and windows locked securely, the dogs turned loose, and your alarm set to away.”

    Your darker interpretation is a bit of a stretch because most people seemingly use their garages for storage, and can’t fit a car into the garage. So I don’t know what something dark would even pop into your head. ;-)

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  28. David Losh

    RE: corndogs @ 24

    Hmmm, I have said people can make money “flipping,” and working on properties in today’s market. The margins are low, and it is a job, with great risk.

    Real Estate is something that I have done, but won’t do again in my life time. Real Estate is a job, like any other job. You make money if you work hard, but it is hard, brutal work, that I do have the skill set to do.

    The cleaning business, on the other hand, is done by labor, that allows me to sit here educating you.

    Now you may be a lost cause, because you are so ridiculous. You’re talking about people you know who have done things, rather than what you have done.

    You have nothing to add, nothing to say, other than you are insecure about your accomplishments in life.

    I’ve been everywhere, done everything, donated more money to charity than most people make in a life time, and it hasn’t been boring.

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  29. David Losh

    RE: corndogs @ 23

    Did you really cross the line there?

    I read comments from the bottom up, so this comment escaped me.

    Again, if you have nothing to say, or add, why bother?

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  30. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 27

    Supporting this person’s behaviour is also very inappropriate.

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  31. Plymster

    RE: wreckingbull @ 25 – There was a time when SB was actively moderated. I remember conversations in 2006-7 between Meshugi and Synthetik getting broken up over much less.

    Now, I suspect that Tim is much busier, or has just stopped trying to monitor Kary’s monologue and corndog’s invectives.

    Anymore, I skim the comments for entertainment value or the odd interesting link thrown out by the handful of legitimate posters left. I try not to get too invested or get into pig-wrestling matches here anymore. As such, I’m one of the “morons” who thumbs-ups or thumbs-downs items because it satisfies the desire to support valuable insight, or lash out at buffoonery.

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  32. Erik

    RE: corndogs @ 23
    I will give you a thumbs up on that one. That could be my future. I have fixed up 2 places. That’s what I meant by the know how. I am certainly not a self proclaimed real estate success story. I would really like to give this a try though, cause I think there is a big upside. You are correct though, I may very well fail.

    The things you say are well thought out either way. They kinda play on my internal fears cause we both know I am trying to play in a world I can’t really afford and I am not very knowledgeable about.

    I’m not necessarily going to sell for a slim profit margin, but I post the idea on here to get feedback. Ardell said that my price of $180k wasn’t unreasonable. I bought for $92.7k, so the may be a good start for me. My friend and I are still waiting for inventory to increase before we try to remodel. You guys all seem pretty knowledgeable on here to me. If you want to trash on me and say I know nothing, I really don’t compared to you, losh, ardell, ray, kary, and many more.

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  33. Kary L. Krismer

    By Plymster @ 31:

    Now, I suspect that Tim is much busier, or has just stopped trying to monitor Kary’s monologue

    Monologue? I think you should probably look up the meaning of words before you attempt to use them.

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  34. Kary L. Krismer

    By Erik @ 32:

    My friend and I are still waiting for inventory to increase before we try to remodel..

    Maybe I haven’t been following this conversation closely enough, but the low inventory is a negative when you buy a property to flip, but a positive when you go to sell. If you’re planning on flipping, I wouldn’t wait for higher inventory, but instead just deal with the fact that the low inventory will make your purchase more difficult.

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  35. Erik

    RE: corndogs @
    Based on what I have gathered and read, that is not the case with Losh.

    I am pretty interested in your path Corndogs. I let you know I am a design engineer at boeing and you let me know that you don’t work for peanuts like I do. My plan is to make money on the side buying, fixing, and selling real estate. What is it that you do? How do you make money? You seem to not be forthcoming on your path. If you have had success, please share.

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  36. Erik

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 34
    The reason we were thinking to wait for high inventory is so we could have a backup plan if something went wrong and we needed to rent it and wait for low inventory. If we buy with low inventory, there really isn’t a safety net if we cannot sell immediately for a profit. Right?

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  37. Erik

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 33
    Yeah, there are some people on here that a running a monologue, but I think you are using a dialog because you address other posters comments. I don’t think there is a whole lot of arguing that.

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  38. Matthew

    Anyone else think that cornhole is actually Meshugy?

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  39. Erik

    RE: Matthew @ 38
    I do know that corndogs(CD) likes to speak about him/herself in the third person, he/she won’t reveal their identity and CD lashes out at people. CD seems pretty smart. I thought CD may be an angry computer programmer in the seattle area, but who knows…

    Whatever he/she is, something went wrong somewhere along the way and he/she takes their aggression out on others that post comments here.

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  40. Kary L. Krismer

    By Erik @ 36:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 34
    The reason we were thinking to wait for high inventory is so we could have a backup plan if something went wrong and we needed to rent it and wait for low inventory. If we buy with low inventory, there really isn’t a safety net if we cannot sell immediately for a profit. Right?

    I’m still not following. If you have a high inventory it will be harder to sell at a high profit, because your listing will have more competition. You want a low inventory of active listings when you sell. You can’t control what the market will be like when you are ready to sell, but if the inventory is already heading up that would be worse, not better.

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  41. Erik

    RE: corndogs @ 24
    Your acquaintance sounds like i pretty successful guy. I am trying to do what your friend has done, unfortunately I haven’t been successful like he has. I spent about $20k remodeling my condo by doing most of the work myself after work. I think I did a pretty good job this time of buying low, and remodeling at a low cost.

    One thing holding me back from selling is that I don’t have a clear picture of how to get good financing when I sell. My short sale of my last failed remodel closed a few months ago, so my credit is kinda hosed. If I knew I could get another place at a good price, i’d sell. I like what Ray Pepper suggested. Buy a house at a Trustee Sale with high interest financing and then refinance it in 6 months at a low rate. I don’t think the bank will let me do that with my credit in its current state.

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  42. Erik

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 40
    Kary, if inventory is as low as it is, it probably won’t get too much lower. Chances are inventory will increase. Here is my fear… I buy a remodel, spend too much time remodeling and inventory goes up during the remodel. In this scenario, I may lose money on the remodel since when inventory increases, prices will decrease.

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  43. Kary L. Krismer

    By Erik @ 42:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 40
    Kary, if inventory is as low as it is, it probably won’t get too much lower. Chances are inventory will increase. Here is my fear… I buy a remodel, spend too much time remodeling and inventory goes up during the remodel. In this scenario, I may lose money on the remodel since when inventory increases, prices will decrease.

    Yes, but you don’t have control over what the inventory will be like when you finish. I’m just saying if you wait for it to go up, it will be up, and that’s not good.

    IMHO, what the low inventory means is you’ll have to be very patient picking a property, because you don’t want that low inventory situation to result in your paying too much for a property.

    Stated differently, I think it might be better to wait for higher inventory for your buy decision, not your sell decision. But even with that analysis, you still can possibly find a good buy with low inventory.

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  44. Erik

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 43
    I agree, that is why i’m waiting for high inventory to buy.

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  45. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: Erik @ 42
    Chances are, inventory will increase. But what will cause inventory to increase? As likely as anything else, higher prices. I’m not really predicting a sustained rise in home prices, but at the moment inventory is terrible and prices appear to moving upward. How much farther upward to “open the floodgates”, I don’t know. Inventory, sales, and prices don’t always work in tandem like you’d think they’re supposed to. In 2006, inventory was rising, sales were declining, and prices were continuing to rise. Now, theres a higher percentage of investors buying single family homes and renting them out. In the Seattle area, it takes smarts and hard work to make money doing that. But I think there will be a time soon when many of these investors either take a small profit and put those homes back on the market, or just decide it’s not worth it, and put the houses on the market. Whatever path you choose, buying now or waiting for more inventory, it’s a gamble. I salute you for taking it.

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  46. Erik

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 45
    Your scenario seems probable. I don’t see prices increasing for a longtime. We will have these low inventory price jumps, but I don’t see any sustainable until all these foreclosures are gone, which will atleast be 3-5 more years. After that the feds are gonna slowly increase interest rates slowly for the next 5 years. Then these investors will dump their properties to keep prices down. I don’t think now is a good time to invest in real estate. If you do, plan on not making gain for 10 years. There is opportunity to buy low, fix, and sell high though.

    Corndogs thinks we are gonna see an approximate gain of 3%/year. I’m just not seeing that. I think he’s in Investor denial.

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  47. Erik

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 45
    I agree with what you are saying.

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  48. Erik

    RE: corndogs @ 23
    I can’t help but continue to laugh. This is the funniest comment I have seen on here yet.

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  49. AxlRose

    Well, regardless of where the market is, reading this thread sure feels like we are at the bottom of something…

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  50. Kary L. Krismer

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 45:

    RE: Erik @ 42 – But what will cause inventory to increase? As likely as anything else, higher prices. I’m not really predicting a sustained rise in home prices, but at the moment inventory is terrible and prices appear to moving upward. How much farther upward to “open the floodgates”, I don’t know..

    I think a lot of it is just people not knowing about the market. A lot of people haven’t heard it is a seller’s market, so it’s bad information flow more than price to a great extent. If that’s correct, you could get more inventory without higher prices attracting that inventory onto the market.

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  51. Erik

    By Matthew @ 38:

    Anyone else think that cornhole is actually Meshugy?

    Whoever Corndogs is, he/she is trying to hide their true identity so they cannot be held accountable. Even though some of corndogs comments seem plausible, I don’t put too much weight in them because we all have no idea who corndogs is. Corndogs could be a 12 year old girl from the middle east for all we know.

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  52. Kary L. Krismer

    Isn’t Corndog the person who purported to buy that property in Gig Harbor which they identified? Maybe I’m thinking of the wrong person, but assuming that’s correct, I hardly think they’ve been very successful at hiding their identity.

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  53. Erik

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 52
    Can you send me a link please? I like to know who I’m talking to.

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  54. Erik

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 52
    I see… I did a little bit of looking at prior blogs with corndogs. First, I noticed corndogs talking about his friend with a masters degree in engineering like corndogs really respects that. I will have my masters degree in mechanical engineering in 2 months and he is very disrespectful toward me.
    I saw in July ’12 Losh nailed corndogs to the wall. That’s why corndogs is trying to get revenge. Corndogs is still mad because Losh ate his lunch last summer. Ha ha ha.

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  55. David Losh

    RE: Erik @ 54

    You’re feeding a troll.

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  56. Erik

    By David Losh @ 55:

    RE: Erik @ 54

    You’re feeding a troll.

    Ha ha ha. A real bottom feeder.

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