Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

23 responses to “Mid-Week Open Thread (2013-02-06)”

  1. Blurtman

    I would like to start a movement to ban the phrase “That being said” from common parlance. If you have said it, why do you have to say that you have said it? Or, perhaps we can escalate to ” That being said having been said…”

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  2. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blurtman @ 1 – It’s to point out you’re going to raise an exception to what you just said. To point out what otherwise might seem inconsistent.

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  3. wreckingbull

    RE: Blurtman @ 1 – It is annoying, but at least it has some value – typically a transition to an orthogonal viewpoint.

    While we are on the subject, here are my beefs:

    1. Starting a sentence with the word ‘so’.
    2. Using the word ‘like’ as a universal verb.
    3. Vocal fry. This one is really common with female NPR newsreaders for some reason. Sometimes I have to strain to hear the words hidden in the crackle.

    For anyone interested in language, I highly recommend the podcast “Lexicon Valley”.

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  4. Blurtman

    RE: wreckingbull @ 3 – So the use of the word “so” to begin a sentence has been quite common in the medical/scientific community for at least a decade. That being said, kill the bankers.

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  5. Ira Sacharoff

    By Blurtman @ 4:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 3 – So the use of the word “so” to begin a sentence has been quite common in the medical/scientific community for at least a decade. That being said, kill the bankers.

    I believe to say it correctly, one must say ” So kill the bankers already, so to speak, in a manner of speaking, as it were.”

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  6. banjo country

    My favorite phrase has always been…’in the fullness of time’.
    It’s sort of like when Philip Seymour, in ‘Tom Wilson’s War’, shared a story where an old man replied to a young man’s every assertion with…. ‘we’ll see’.

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  7. softwarengineer

    Seattle Minimum Wages Going Down to $6.76/hr?

    http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2020294703_trainingwagexml.html

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  8. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 6 – From article:

    Senate Bill 5275 would establish a “training wage” equal to 75 percent of either the state or national minimum wage — whichever is higher

    That is incorrectly reported. It’s either 75% of the state minimum wage or the federal minimum wage, whichever is higher, not 75% of either minimum.

    http://apps.leg.wa.gov/documents/billdocs/2013-14/Pdf/Bills/Senate%20Bills/5275.pdf

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  9. Blurtman

    RE: banjo country @ 6 Yes. Or “..at the end of the day…” which oddly enough never seems to arrive.

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  10. wreckingbull

    RE: Blurtman @ 9 – Hey now, Blurtman, not much you can do about it…………….. “It is what it is.”

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  11. redmondjp

    RE: Blurtman @ 9 – Let’s not forget “and it came to pass” as used over 1400 times in the Book of Mormon. I think this phrase needs to be used more often in our discussions of real estate (NAR take note).

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  12. softwarengineer

    Perhaps New York and “Likewise” Even Seattle High Population Density Areas Can Learn from Hong Kong

    NY is building 250 sq foot apartments for $1600/mo to house the growing low avg wage population density in the city [inadequately and high rent, I'd add].

    Hong Kong gives ‘em wire cages for $167/mo….

    http://www.myfoxny.com/story/21021301/hong-kong-poor-in-cages-shows-dark-side-of-property-boom

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  13. softwarengineer

    We Won’t Know the SPEEA Strike Vote Results Until Feb 19Th

    Meanwhile, Tim should put a vote button in this website on our guess whether the strike is slamdunk.

    It could be interesting.

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  14. softwarengineer

    The Las Vegas Style Stock Market Average Takes/Gains Were Monstrous Last Month

    2013
    Jan 0.13% (0.56%) 5.18% 6.96% 4.45%
    YTD .13% (0.56%) 5.18% 6.96% 4.45%
    Last 12 mo 1.46% 2.80% 16.83% 17.87% 17.60%

    In order:
    Longterm CDs, Longterm Bonds, American Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Foreign Stocks

    I know its rosy now, but could go to Hades later….historically though, when January was a good month, the whole year followed suit….

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  15. softwarengineer

    Will Obamacare Destroy the Seattle Real Estate Market?

    I was reading my email and came across this litttle political tidbit….

    “…More Evidence that Obamacare is too costly for you and your family…
    Now that the IRS has issued their regulations about ObamaCare, we can officially toss the Democrats’ line about making healthcare “affordable” into the garbage.
    According to their rules, your family can expect to pay $20,000 a year for the cheapest available healthcare plan.

    How much is your family paying right now?
    Can your family afford to pay $20,000 per year for ObamaCare?…”

    HADES NO!!!!

    P.S. Nurses and doctors only make up about 5% of the work force, why are they grabbing up about 35-40% of the avg Seattle household income?

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  16. softwarengineer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 15

    My Blue Cross costs About $20K/Yr for family Plan Too

    Thank God my employer pays the $1200/mo and I pay the rest [$400/mo]….but good Gosh, even my portion seems HUGE each net pay check….

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  17. Marc

    Yet another bit of news that portends another run up in real estate: bad second mortgage debt is in high demand. If that’s the case it’s a mere matter of time until for 80-10-10, 90-10, and 90-5-5 piggy back loans are back in full force with conveniently modest underwriting standards. I imagine there’s an inverse relationship between down payment size and housing prices so get ready.

    “MountainView Capital Group announced that it facilitated a transfer of 3,177 non-performing, unsecured second-lien mortgage loans with an unpaid principal balance of $177.3 million this past week.”

    “Market demand far exceeded supply in the second lien space last year, …. “Any performing or non-performing closed- end seconds or HELOCs will attract multiple bidders.”

    http://www.housingwire.com/fastnews/2013/02/06/mountainview-capital-group-advises-large-second-lien-loan-deal

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  18. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 15 – Whoever named the Affordable Healthcare Act was obviously a big fan of the book 1984.

    What the act was about was shifting the cost of healthcare from the government to private citizens.

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  19. Blurtman

    RE: softwarengineer @ 14 – It’s the Wealth Effect, baby! Greed is good! Light up the Cohibas, it’s party time!

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  20. softwarengineer

    RE: Blurtman @ 19

    Yes Blurtman

    But the equities market volume is decreasing as the stock return rates sky-rocket….kind of like Seattle’s real estate prices go up for now with minimal inventory, as the Total Labor Market for employment worsens….it just doesn’t make sense.

    My guess on equities anomalies: some of the rich are sick and tired of 1% safe haven treasuries and jump into the low volume market anyway…driving prices WAY up; I’d add to as energy prices sky rocket [they are] stock profits increase on a larger base product price based on devalued dollar high priced oil?

    Matching fund investors [like me] invested HEAVILY in equities too thinking if I lose half, I still have my half. Meanwhile, good gosh, 5% interest in a month last month, hand me the lighter….

    P.S. Its probably a Ponzi Scheme to get ya little guys buyin on E-Trade; once we get you back in we’ll all sell [devilish SWE laugh]….

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  21. softwarengineer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 20

    Ohhhhh….

    Here’s a good reference on the current low volume invested in MASSIVELY high interest payout stocks:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-low-volume-etfs-could-thrive-in-2013-2013-01-04-14464757

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  22. Kary L. Krismer

    There’s talk of reforming the FHA, beyond the increases in MI which have gone into effect and will be going into effect.

    http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/Republicans-seek-changes-at-FHA-4258197.php

    If they want to cut the losses, they should look at how the properties are dealt with once they are foreclosed.

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  23. Kary L. Krismer

    I predict a new best seller on the NYT’s best seller list for fiction.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/timothy-geithner-prepares-to-blast-back-at-critics-87275.html

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