Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

44 responses to “Guess the Price Round 5: 101 Years Old in Phinney Ridge”

  1. Flojo

    $418,000 on 5/10

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  2. Jason

    $495,000, closing on 4/9/13.

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  3. Updog

    481,000 on 4/20/2013

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  4. Heiberg

    $468,000 Closing: 2013.04.03

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  5. Jacob B.

    469,000. 30,000 over listing for the beautiful skies on the 1st photo…… Sells by April 20th.

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  6. Tim McB

    450k on March 29th 2013.

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  7. Beau

    440,000 on 3/29/13

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  8. Erik

    435,000 4/12/2013

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  9. lester

    458,000 on 4/14/13

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  10. Dave0

    $439,950 on April 10th 2013.

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  11. Pete

    $420K on 5/1/13

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  12. Fence Sitter

    And…Pending.

    I wonder if they were renting out the house and had a lease that made financing difficult? The listing mentioned that it was a good rental and that it was vacant; not something that I usually notice in the public listings.

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  13. Heiberg

    Can’t say I’m surprised. Was expecting it to go pending on Tuesday.

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  14. mike

    $510K unless the square footage is seriously misrepresented.

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  15. Fence Sitter

    RE: The Tim @ 13
    Yep – when I saw this one yesterday I felt that they might be pricing it a bit low to garner multiple bids. I am so happy that we found a place last year, before this madness ramped up (barely).

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  16. Ron

    RE: Fence Sitter @ 16

    I agree. I live near that neighborhood and thought the exact same thing. Only time will tell.

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  17. 3rd Generation

    Next topic, please.

    Enough guessing games.

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  18. Mark

    More proof…buy now or be priced out forever ;-)

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  19. Ron

    RE: Mark @ 19

    Not everywhere, just on phinney ridgy….;)

    really nice views of both the cascades and olympics and they have a new fire station, library and copious amounts of local pubs. An ok neighborhood. Not to mention that dave matthews lives nearby..

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  20. Jonness

    The house will sell for $465K this time around the cycle.

    Let’s all hope Bernanke keeps on printing enough magic dollars to keep this house of cards standing. If those presses ever slow down, the house will sell the next time around for $265K

    The political clowns are all pointing fingers at each other, and no one is willing to take responsibility for having made the decisions that led to this horrible mess. And things are just getting started. Wait until we print for a few more years. You’ll be staring straight upward from inside a toilet bowl looking at Mr. Bernanke’s anus in the process of making, yet another, magical helicopter drop.

    You’ll have fun, fun, fun, till Daddy takes the t-bills away.

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  21. David Losh

    RE: The Tim @ 22

    There is no answer for a seller’s strategy, but they listed a price for the home, and are kind of bound by that. The house has been listed before so the offer may be just what they wanted.

    I hate the waiting through the week end game, and it would turn off a lot of Real Estate agents, and buyers combined. They have already had two pending?

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  22. gardener1

    I wouldn’t give 25 bucks for this photoshopped steaming pile of ugly renovation (Czech sky and all) if you moved it to Bermuda and threw in a complementary beach.

    I might live there if someone offered it to me for free.

    Seattle–you are so delusionary. Your sh!tte century old housing is ugly, worn out, and without any redeeming value, except that banks want to take all of your money so that you may have a ridiculously overpriced roof over your head, and they may steal your income until the year 2043.

    GTFO. I thought you people had college degrees that made you smarter than this.

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  23. whatsmyname

    RE: gardener1 @ 24 – Thank you for your thoughtful post. You sound very upset. If I can ease your mind on only one matter: No one is going to offer you a beachfront shack in Bermuda for $25.

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  24. Blurtman

    RE: The Tim @ 22 – Undisclosed sink hole?

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  25. Ira Sacharoff

    By The Tim @ 22:

    Here’s what I don’t get about this listing. If you’re the seller, wouldn’t it be in your best interests to leave the home on the market for at least a full weekend, to get as much exposure as possible? Going on-market on a Thursday and accepting an offer before the weekend even starts just doesn’t seem like the ideal strategy.

    Sometimes, when you’re ready to leave a home and move on, strategy is secondary to the great feeling of liberation that comes when you’re done. The process of having a house for sale is not fun( if you live in it). There’s ideal strategy and there’s the overwhelming sentiment to just sell the thing.

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  26. Partial View

    RE: The Tim @ 22
    We toured an open house today where the agent indicated that the seller had instructed them to move ahead with the first strong offer that came through, rather than wait through the weekend and try to generate multiple offers. Had only been on the market for a few days.

    Of course, we’ve certainly seen a lot of sellers looking to elicit multiple offers as well. Maybe it’s just a matter of seller ethic.

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  27. Chuck C

    The listing calls it a “farmhouse”. With a lot size listed at 3000sf, I wonder what crops they grow/grew, LOL.

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  28. Chris

    I’ve seen this game before. If that is as described, the price will not be less than $500k, probably $520. I went through this a half dozen times last year before picking up one that was overpriced to start and then wrangled them down as the year was getting long in the tooth and they had to move.

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  29. Azucar

    Wow, looking at the price history of the house it sold for 439,000 in March 2006, so if it went pending that quick with a listing price of 439,950 my guess is it’s at “2006″ or even “2007″ price. Maybe it’s been updated some between then and now… as the “public records” in the redfin listing for the house show that it’s 4 BR 1 BA.

    Maybe they didn’t let the listing run through the weekend because there was some kind of condition relating to the offer that was made – i.e. “offer (maybe higher than asking price) expires now (or in 24 hours) if you don’t accept it immediately”. Maybe that would be a good strategy for avoiding multiple offer scenarios for those who are so opposed to them.

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  30. David B.

    I don’t know if I’d describe a house which has no trace of its historical exterior covering intact and looks for all the world like a tract home in Bothell from the outside as “nicely updated”, but to each his own, I guess.

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  31. Mike

    In many ways this market seems worse than 2007 in terms of all the nonsense around multiple bids, highest and best taken Sunday night, waive inspection, waive financing, waive your second child…

    Would be nice to see a comparison of how many listings are selling now within like 1, 3, 7. 10+ days versus this same time in 2006 or 2007. Total sales volume is presumably WAY lower now so would need to be on a % basis to make any interesting comparison. There was a window as a potential buyer where it looked like getting back into the market made sense but with events like this it is hard not to have second thoughts about chasing the herd and where the next cliff lies. While prices may not be as inflated yet, the market seems almost more dysfunctional right now than it did back in the actual “bubble”.

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  32. David Losh

    RE: Mike @ 34

    I agree totally.

    It seems to me that there is this weird disconnect from what happened in just 2006, 2007, and what is going on today. People jumping around like there will be no more chances to buy, or be priced out forever.

    The stock market is also onto new highs. It just seems like a replay of what we just went through. The difference now is we did have a crash, we do have unemployment, we do have the sequester, and yet none of that seems to be a concern. All we do is look at sales data, that I think is based on the greater fool principle.

    What I think though is that people should be more careful this time around.

    I’ll also go out on a limb, and say that I look at 2014 as the end of the seven year cycle of 2007. It seems to me there are mechanisms already in place from what Bernanke has said that may impact the Real Estate market. I’m not saying for the buyer to wait it out, but just to be aware that things may change soon.

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  33. GrizzlyBear

    Overpriced piece of crap.

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  34. nize

    it’s a great time to be a home seller! :)

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  35. Keith

    I’ve watching the Ballard area pretty religiously for the last 10 years or so and I’ve never (boom included) seen so little inventory and things move so fast. I bought a step up place in October was actually able to wait out the buyer and negotiate a bit. Wouldn’t happen now. Every-time I see something that looks semi decent it goes pending a day or two later. Redfin says there are only 21 SFH listings in all of Ballard. Ballard is a fairly large area — this is a quarter or less than what is typically available.

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  36. mike

    RE: Keith @ 38

    No kidding. We negotiated down $10K off asking price and got the seller to pay for closing costs based on the inspection report. This year we’d be lucky to even GET an inspection, let alone offer less than 102% of asking.

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  37. Erik Heiberg

    $440,000 on 2013.03.29!!! Pretty golly good guess Beau. Did you buy this house?

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  38. Erik Heiberg

    D@mn a filtered word? Hmm :-)

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  39. Guess the Price Round 5: We Have a Winner! • Seattle Bubble

    [...] barely over a month ago we launched our latest price-guessing contest: Guess the Price Round 5: 101 Years Old in Phinney Ridge. After round 4 dragged on for seven months, I tried to pick a home that was likely to sell a little [...]

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  40. Guess the Price Round 6: "Ready to Shine" in Fremont • Seattle Bubble

    [...] midnight the morning of April 22nd, or when the home goes pending, whichever comes first. Note that last time the home went pending just a few hours after the contest opened, so get your guesses in [...]

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