Guess the Price Round 5: 101 Years Old in Phinney Ridge

It’s finally time for a new round of “Guess the Price.” Here’s how the game works. I’ll describe a home that’s currently on the market, giving you as many pros and cons as I can, and you guess what the final sale price will be when/if it sells.

Be sure to enter your real email address into the form when you leave your guess in the comments, because the winner gets a $25 gift card to the restaurant chain of their choosing. Don’t worry, I’m the only one that can see the emails that are entered. The winner is the person whose guess is closest to the final sale price, above or below. If there is a tie, whoever guessed closer to the correct closing date will be declared the winner. Contest closes to entries at midnight the morning of March 17th, or when the home goes pending, whichever comes first.

304 NW 74th St.Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 304 NW 74th Street in Seattle’s Phinney Ridge neighborhood.

This round’s home hit the market yesterday with an asking price of $439,950. This is not the first time it has been for sale recently—it was originally listed on October 2, went pending on October 9, but was delisted on October 12. It was relisted on October 29, had a price drop on November 12, went pending again on November 17, but was delisted again on November 28.

The home is neither bank-owned nor a short sale. It is positioned in the northern portion of Seattle’s Phinney Ridge neighborhood, where the median price of single-family homes sold in January was $456,000.

Built in 1912, this 1.5-story home (with basement) sports 5 bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and one three-quarter bathroom. The main floor and the basement each have two bedrooms, while the upper floor has the master suite. The three-quarter bathroom is in the basement. 2,070 of the home’s square feet are above ground, with an additional 540 in the basement.

304 NW 74th St.The exterior of the home looks to have been painted relatively recently. The yard seems reasonably well-manicured. Off the alley in the back there is a small “detached storage shed/small garage” that looks like it would fit one car.

Inside, the paint job looks somewhat new, with simple beige walls and white trim throughout most of the home. The hardwood floors on the main level appear to be in good condition, as does the carpet on the second level. According to a Redfin Tour Insight, the second story is a “converted attic space.” The listing describes it as a “top floor master with office and ensuite bath,” and from the photos you can see that the ceiling height is somewhat short.

304 NW 74th St.The kitchen is relatively plain, with tiled countertops and somewhat dated cabinets. The appliances look decent, though not very fancy, and the dishwasher appears to be rather small. Counter space is also limited.

There’s little yard to speak of on the 3,000 square foot lot, with just a small patch of grass in the front and the back mostly taken up with paved parking for two or three cars.

304 NW 74th St.The basement sports the home’s only fireplace and a second kitchen all in one open room. From the photograph at left, the three-quarter bathroom appears to be somewhat awkwardly located, up half a flight of stairs.

Overall, this home looks like it has been nicely maintained and updated throughout the years. It appears to be priced well for its location, size, and condition, although one does wonder why it has fallen out of pending twice recently. With the ongoing inventory shortage this year (there are just 8 houses for sale in all of Phinney Ridge right now), now may be the time for the sellers of this home to finally close the deal.

Summary of 304 NW 74th St.

  • Pros
    • desireable location
    • nicely updated historic home
    • off-street parking
    • detached garage / shed
    • tall ceilings on main level
  • Cons
    • dated kitchen, small dishwasher
    • limited counter space
    • short ceilings upstairs
    • basement is “non-conforming” (i.e. no egress)

So, what say you? How much will this home sell for, and when will it sell?

[Update – 2013/03/01 @ 4:00 PM]
This contest is already closed to entries, as the home went pending just 10 minutes ago!

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

44 comments:

  1. 1
    Flojo says:

    $418,000 on 5/10

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    Jason says:

    $495,000, closing on 4/9/13.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    Updog says:

    481,000 on 4/20/2013

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    Heiberg says:

    $468,000 Closing: 2013.04.03

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5
    Jacob B. says:

    469,000. 30,000 over listing for the beautiful skies on the 1st photo…… Sells by April 20th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    Tim McB says:

    450k on March 29th 2013.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    Beau says:

    440,000 on 3/29/13

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8
    Erik says:

    435,000 4/12/2013

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9
    lester says:

    458,000 on 4/14/13

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10
    Dave0 says:

    $439,950 on April 10th 2013.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    Pete says:

    $420K on 5/1/13

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    Fence Sitter says:

    And…Pending.

    I wonder if they were renting out the house and had a lease that made financing difficult? The listing mentioned that it was a good rental and that it was vacant; not something that I usually notice in the public listings.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. 13
    The Tim says:

    RE: Fence Sitter @ 12 – Dang, no kidding. Pending already. Only time for 11 entries to get in. Looks like those of you who got in your guesses have a pretty good chance of winning!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    Heiberg says:

    Can’t say I’m surprised. Was expecting it to go pending on Tuesday.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. 15
    mike says:

    $510K unless the square footage is seriously misrepresented.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. 16
    Fence Sitter says:

    RE: The Tim @ 13
    Yep – when I saw this one yesterday I felt that they might be pricing it a bit low to garner multiple bids. I am so happy that we found a place last year, before this madness ramped up (barely).

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17
    Ron says:

    RE: Fence Sitter @ 16

    I agree. I live near that neighborhood and thought the exact same thing. Only time will tell.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. 18
    3rd Generation says:

    Next topic, please.

    Enough guessing games.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. 19
    Mark says:

    More proof…buy now or be priced out forever ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. 20
    Ron says:

    RE: Mark @ 19

    Not everywhere, just on phinney ridgy….;)

    really nice views of both the cascades and olympics and they have a new fire station, library and copious amounts of local pubs. An ok neighborhood. Not to mention that dave matthews lives nearby..

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. 21
    Jonness says:

    The house will sell for $465K this time around the cycle.

    Let’s all hope Bernanke keeps on printing enough magic dollars to keep this house of cards standing. If those presses ever slow down, the house will sell the next time around for $265K

    The political clowns are all pointing fingers at each other, and no one is willing to take responsibility for having made the decisions that led to this horrible mess. And things are just getting started. Wait until we print for a few more years. You’ll be staring straight upward from inside a toilet bowl looking at Mr. Bernanke’s anus in the process of making, yet another, magical helicopter drop.

    You’ll have fun, fun, fun, till Daddy takes the t-bills away.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. 22
    The Tim says:

    Here’s what I don’t get about this listing. If you’re the seller, wouldn’t it be in your best interests to leave the home on the market for at least a full weekend, to get as much exposure as possible? Going on-market on a Thursday and accepting an offer before the weekend even starts just doesn’t seem like the ideal strategy.

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  23. 23
    David Losh says:

    RE: The Tim @ 22

    There is no answer for a seller’s strategy, but they listed a price for the home, and are kind of bound by that. The house has been listed before so the offer may be just what they wanted.

    I hate the waiting through the week end game, and it would turn off a lot of Real Estate agents, and buyers combined. They have already had two pending?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. 24
    gardener1 says:

    I wouldn’t give 25 bucks for this photoshopped steaming pile of ugly renovation (Czech sky and all) if you moved it to Bermuda and threw in a complementary beach.

    I might live there if someone offered it to me for free.

    Seattle–you are so delusionary. Your sh!tte century old housing is ugly, worn out, and without any redeeming value, except that banks want to take all of your money so that you may have a ridiculously overpriced roof over your head, and they may steal your income until the year 2043.

    GTFO. I thought you people had college degrees that made you smarter than this.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  25. 25
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: gardener1 @ 24 – Thank you for your thoughtful post. You sound very upset. If I can ease your mind on only one matter: No one is going to offer you a beachfront shack in Bermuda for $25.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. 26
    Blurtman says:

    RE: The Tim @ 22 – Undisclosed sink hole?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  27. 27

    By The Tim @ 22:

    Here’s what I don’t get about this listing. If you’re the seller, wouldn’t it be in your best interests to leave the home on the market for at least a full weekend, to get as much exposure as possible? Going on-market on a Thursday and accepting an offer before the weekend even starts just doesn’t seem like the ideal strategy.

    Sometimes, when you’re ready to leave a home and move on, strategy is secondary to the great feeling of liberation that comes when you’re done. The process of having a house for sale is not fun( if you live in it). There’s ideal strategy and there’s the overwhelming sentiment to just sell the thing.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  28. 28
    Partial View says:

    RE: The Tim @ 22
    We toured an open house today where the agent indicated that the seller had instructed them to move ahead with the first strong offer that came through, rather than wait through the weekend and try to generate multiple offers. Had only been on the market for a few days.

    Of course, we’ve certainly seen a lot of sellers looking to elicit multiple offers as well. Maybe it’s just a matter of seller ethic.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  29. 29
    Chuck C says:

    The listing calls it a “farmhouse”. With a lot size listed at 3000sf, I wonder what crops they grow/grew, LOL.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  30. 30
    Chris says:

    I’ve seen this game before. If that is as described, the price will not be less than $500k, probably $520. I went through this a half dozen times last year before picking up one that was overpriced to start and then wrangled them down as the year was getting long in the tooth and they had to move.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  31. 32
    Azucar says:

    Wow, looking at the price history of the house it sold for 439,000 in March 2006, so if it went pending that quick with a listing price of 439,950 my guess is it’s at “2006” or even “2007” price. Maybe it’s been updated some between then and now… as the “public records” in the redfin listing for the house show that it’s 4 BR 1 BA.

    Maybe they didn’t let the listing run through the weekend because there was some kind of condition relating to the offer that was made – i.e. “offer (maybe higher than asking price) expires now (or in 24 hours) if you don’t accept it immediately”. Maybe that would be a good strategy for avoiding multiple offer scenarios for those who are so opposed to them.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  32. 33
    David B. says:

    I don’t know if I’d describe a house which has no trace of its historical exterior covering intact and looks for all the world like a tract home in Bothell from the outside as “nicely updated”, but to each his own, I guess.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  33. 34
    Mike says:

    In many ways this market seems worse than 2007 in terms of all the nonsense around multiple bids, highest and best taken Sunday night, waive inspection, waive financing, waive your second child…

    Would be nice to see a comparison of how many listings are selling now within like 1, 3, 7. 10+ days versus this same time in 2006 or 2007. Total sales volume is presumably WAY lower now so would need to be on a % basis to make any interesting comparison. There was a window as a potential buyer where it looked like getting back into the market made sense but with events like this it is hard not to have second thoughts about chasing the herd and where the next cliff lies. While prices may not be as inflated yet, the market seems almost more dysfunctional right now than it did back in the actual “bubble”.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  34. 35
    David Losh says:

    RE: Mike @ 34

    I agree totally.

    It seems to me that there is this weird disconnect from what happened in just 2006, 2007, and what is going on today. People jumping around like there will be no more chances to buy, or be priced out forever.

    The stock market is also onto new highs. It just seems like a replay of what we just went through. The difference now is we did have a crash, we do have unemployment, we do have the sequester, and yet none of that seems to be a concern. All we do is look at sales data, that I think is based on the greater fool principle.

    What I think though is that people should be more careful this time around.

    I’ll also go out on a limb, and say that I look at 2014 as the end of the seven year cycle of 2007. It seems to me there are mechanisms already in place from what Bernanke has said that may impact the Real Estate market. I’m not saying for the buyer to wait it out, but just to be aware that things may change soon.

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  35. 36
    GrizzlyBear says:

    Overpriced piece of crap.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  36. 37
    nize says:

    it’s a great time to be a home seller! :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  37. 38
    Keith says:

    I’ve watching the Ballard area pretty religiously for the last 10 years or so and I’ve never (boom included) seen so little inventory and things move so fast. I bought a step up place in October was actually able to wait out the buyer and negotiate a bit. Wouldn’t happen now. Every-time I see something that looks semi decent it goes pending a day or two later. Redfin says there are only 21 SFH listings in all of Ballard. Ballard is a fairly large area — this is a quarter or less than what is typically available.

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  38. 39
    mike says:

    RE: Keith @ 38

    No kidding. We negotiated down $10K off asking price and got the seller to pay for closing costs based on the inspection report. This year we’d be lucky to even GET an inspection, let alone offer less than 102% of asking.

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  39. 40
    Erik Heiberg says:

    $440,000 on 2013.03.29!!! Pretty golly good guess Beau. Did you buy this house?

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  40. 41
    Erik Heiberg says:

    D@mn a filtered word? Hmm :-)

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  41. 42
    The Tim says:

    RE: Erik Heiberg @ 40 – Wow no kidding. Will post the update tomorrow and email Beau today.

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  42. 43

    […] barely over a month ago we launched our latest price-guessing contest: Guess the Price Round 5: 101 Years Old in Phinney Ridge. After round 4 dragged on for seven months, I tried to pick a home that was likely to sell a little […]

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  43. 44

    […] midnight the morning of April 22nd, or when the home goes pending, whichever comes first. Note that last time the home went pending just a few hours after the contest opened, so get your guesses in […]

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