Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

12 responses to “Monday Open Thread (2013-03-11)”

  1. toad37

    I’m trying to get up to speed on investing in small apartments. Not sure you would have enough interest in dedicating a post to that but would love it if you ever did.

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  2. softwarengineer

    RE: toad37 @ 1

    I Just Talked to a Friend About Condo/Apt Investing

    He’s finishing building a $100K mother in law apt on his property…the contracting costs are high for his project too. We both agreed this was the best way to invest in an apt.

    No insanely high HOA fees [like $600/mo] or the risk your $50K condo will get bought up by an apartment investor and they force you to sell at the apt complex sales rate….about $20-30K per unit.

    The way to invest in apartment complex condos is be the one to buy the whole complex.

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  3. redmondjp

    I’ve been recently reading on this and other sites about the love letters being sent to sellers but today I actually received a mass-mailed one:

    “Have you thought about selling your Rose Hill home? Sell it to us! Our names are John & Mary [names changed, just because]. We’ve been looking for a home in Rose Hill for 2 months. We’ve made a few offers and because of the competition with other buyers, we haven’t been able to buy a home yet. It’s become clear to us that the market has flipped and we’re eager to find our first home. Though we have a substantial down payment and can close in as few as 3 weeks, we are willing to be flexible and give you as much time as you need to find your next home.”

    There’s even an engagement-announcement-quality head shot of the lovely couple, but no bonus points awarded for any mention of how many adopted special-needs children they have.

    Postcard sent by a John L. Scott agent in Bellevue.

    There you go – from actual prospective homebuyers: “The market has flipped.”

    The hypothetical asking price on my not-for-sale crapshack just shot up by another $50K!

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  4. softwarengineer

    RE: redmondjp @ 3

    My Neighborhood is Different Than Average Data?

    Practically all homeowners allege their neighborhood bucks the average area tide, since that’s where most of their bucks are tied up in…

    Yes, letters to buy your home are nice but signed escrow papers are what ya got for it…..sometimes its not the windfall we anticipated….when the ink’s dry.

    I saw some simple clear charts on Seattle area home sales trending on Trulia through Feb 2013:

    http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Seattle-Washington/market-trends/

    The YOY medium sales price trending stood out. Note: the MSM HIGHLIGHTS the YOY growth at 4.5% for all homes, yet wait a minute and look at 4-5 year trending chunks before ya take out the price champaign….the 2009-2013 Seattle home prices had some dips up and down; bottom line, approximately/basically FLAT TRENDING.

    Let’s not go to 2007 peak, then ya get like a 24+% drop in prices down to today’s $334K 2/2013 plummet, as this requires a 32% increase from 2/2013 levels to get back to the $440K 2007 peak again.

    The second chart, numbers of sales, is also basically flatline the last 4-5 years. IOWs, pathetic and chronically pathetic from the 5000 unit sold during the 2007 heydays….

    Slip down to the last charts and the avg listing prices were in the $700K area…..meaning the only limited stock moving now in this “stagnant inventory” period is documented to the very rich….

    IOWs, the Seattle real estate market is greatly diminished and basically excludes middle incomes now…..too bad we aren’t all rich elite….

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  5. toad37

    Are there any deals like this in WA on a 4plex?

    http://www.redfin.com/AZ/Mesa/465-W-Ivyglen-St-85201/unit-18/home/27831245

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  6. softwarengineer

    RE: toad37 @ 5

    Yes, Even a Duplex Might Be the Best Rental Investment for the Middle Incomes

    I’ve even imagined two single parent families forming a relationship and owning a duplex together….put a door in the wall between them and walla….a kind of marriage; but no shared TV clicker(s) or closets…..no house cleaning habits that abhor one but not the other either….let alone Millenials that never leave the nest in both families….

    If the relationship ends, both parents still own their half of the duplex too…an easy separation.

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  7. ARDELL

    RE: redmondjp @ 3

    If that is via a John L. Scott postcard, why do you think it is a real buyer vs an agent ploy? Why would people be writing that on “a John L. Scott” postcard?

    Maybe I read that wrong.

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  8. redmondjp

    RE: ARDELL @ 7 – Well, on the front side of the card (which I didn’t transcribe here) it says that these are actual potential buyers represented by the agent.

    Real estate agents wouldn’t lie, would they???

    But you’re probably right – it didn’t even occur to me that somebody would invent imaginary buyers for the purposes of getting to see my home and then try to convince me to sell it. Maybe I should call the agent and see if they will put me in contact with ‘John’ and ‘Mary’ to find out if they are real.

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  9. ARDELL

    Client info and picture not in a sealed envelope? Visible to everyone at USPS? Or was postcard in a sealed envelope? Hmmmm

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  10. mukoh

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – SWE you are making stuff up again. Apartment investors cannot force to sell you for “apartment rate” Apartment rate in normal areas without going to Kent and Puyullup is currently at $90k-$130k per unit at bulk rate i.e. 30+. Your info is quite a bit off.

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  11. redmondjp

    RE: ARDELL @ 9 – Just a large postcard, with their first names & picture (assuming it is actually them). Agent claims that they are “real buyers who are pre-approved and would love the opportunity to . . .” bla bla bla.

    I’ll email you the agent’s name if you’re really interested (I’m not really motivated to provide any additional exposure for her, without compensation, anyways!).

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  12. Swintony

    RE: redmondjp @ 11

    Scan that photo of the couple and run it through Tineye. Then you’ll see if it’s a stock photo or a real picture of real people.

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