Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

18 responses to “Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Jumped Again in April”

  1. ray pepper

    were all gonna be rich…Rich…RICH!!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ysMt_9JnyI

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  2. 3rd Generation

    1. ray pepper

    Nice try. Honorable Mention even.

    Just as a Reminder, this Classic from yester-year, NOTHING beats this one (short version here, for you newbies, I suggest the long version for enhanced study):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPIxrzmatq0

    Where are they now ?

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  3. FlipFlop

    Seems like April/May will be the top.

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  4. whatsmyname

    And the best thing about this chart……
    You already know what it’s going to look like next month too.

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  5. Matthew

    Case Shiller is like staring backward in time. What will be interesting will be CS data 6-8 months from now.

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  6. Erik

    RE: whatsmyname @ 3
    Ha ha. Yeah, no doubt.

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  7. ray pepper

    RE: 3rd Generation @ 2 – The real idiots are the parents in the video. They made the decision with an Agent prodding them on..I bet they are doing quite fine. Probably got a Loan Mod and dropped 40% of their Mortgage..Or if they are real smart haven’t paid for 3-5 years and continue to live in their home for free waiting for their State Mediation hearing.

    The real idiots are those who sat on the sidelines and bashed or bought nothing. The REAL winners will always be those who bought in 2006-7 and UNDERSTOOD just how fortunate they were to be the bearer of an upside down asset, having Obama at your back, in this delightful age of GIVE-BACK!

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  8. Erik

    RE: ray pepper @ 7
    I totally agree. I scored, but after reading your comments, I realized I should have drug out a foreclosure as opposed to short selling. I could have made a lot more money. I was scared of tax repercussions if I waited too long to foreclose. When I short sold there were no taxes to be paid. Oh well… live and l earn I guess.

    Your comment will most likely get thumbs down, but I gave you a thumbs up because that is the right financial decision. Buy for little down. When it no longer meets your needs, give it back. It is the new American way. :-)

    You are advanced ray. Most people here are basic. They think you still need to save 20 percent down and go down with the ship if you house devalues. Not sure where they learned that, but I once heard that was the way our ancestors did it that way.

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  9. David Losh

    RE: ray pepper @ 7

    Well, no, actually as this is shaking out Millions of Americans were left holding empty nest eggs, and it has gotten worse since 2007. Now people are forking over 20% down on over priced assets while the banks laugh.

    The GDP rose at a tepid 1.8%, but it could have just as easily been negative. Without this one bright shiny object of economic hope which is housing our economy may have contracted.

    The Fed has done a fine job of damage control on Bernanke’s last hint of a exit, both of him, and his policies, but we still have a couple more days to get through this week.

    I think I played the game well, but I have a lot to clean up to be made whole, and it was a frigging dog, and nightmare. There was no playing the game well unless you are the bank.

    As long as I butching, I lost $50K of income in 2008. 2009 was another dismal year of no deals to be had that paid. If it weren’t for our toilet cleaning business we would have been facked.

    By the grace of God, and this website, and other like it, we invested everything we had in our business, and just said good bye to Real Estate. Of course we own a home, we already maxed it, but once again by the grace of God the value has risen to meet our float.

    OK, for me, yes our home was a good thing, but I know hundreds of people who weren’t as lucky as us.

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  10. 3rd Generation

    Did you see the size of that garage ?

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  11. Ray pepper

    Well Dave I’m sorry for your misfortune. But, in my frequent travels to the Bay Area and Nevada I see a huge turn around in people’s fortunes. Those who were in despair in 2007-9 have moved on and their employment has long since returned. Homes were sold, modified, and many I know continue to milk their upside down assets in a variety of ways.

    Those who filed chp 7 have all moved on and most seem better off today then they were prior. Everyone I know personally have all bought new homes, mediated, or tucked away cash.

    Alas, we all live our lives differently and we will never meet in prosperity at the same time. But, in this Obama era if your hand is out the fortunes will be delivered IF you know how to reach for it.

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  12. David Losh

    Las Vegas, and the Bay Area are a world apart from reality.

    This Case Shiller Index is of 20 metropolitan areas. It does averages.

    I know hundreds of people who have been facked by Real Estate, and they aren’t doing fine. I know people in the Real Estate business who are just now catching up to be at evens for this five year span and it looks to me like they are pretty much facked also.

    If you fooled around in this highly manipulated Real Estate market place for the past five years, it’s looking really dicey today.

    On the other hand my business in booming. I’m here in the frigging office again today because the phone hasn’t quit ringing. We make in a day what some “investors” collect in a month of rental income. I can also add as many employees as I want to increase our income stream.

    Real Estate is a job, and I don’t really see mass fortunes being made the way they were before the bubble.

    So, select markets maybe doing well, but over all I think Real Estate is going to prove a losing proposition.

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  13. ray pepper

    RE: David Losh @ 12 – Like anything David if your get your money in good you will do fine! Glad to hear your business is on fire. I want to point out that I hear so many positive stories coming out of this RE debacle then I do hear of negative stories.

    Home owners not paying for years, getting hired at MSFT, AT&T, AMZN, etc…then getting a modification and staying in their home. Those who lost their home to foreclosure rented a short while and bought again or decided not to.

    Seems to me those struggling now would have been struggling anyway. Most likely uneducated or at the least uniformed. Washington State has the HIGHEST minimum wage in the nation. Working 2 jobs can make the uneducated some good dough so there should be no crying in this state. Those that continue to struggle in this State must look in the mirror.

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  14. wreckingbull

    RE: ray pepper @ 13 – Actually that is becoming four part-time jobs, as minimum wage, full-time job are being eliminated for Obamacare exemption. Good luck coordinating the hours. Sounds like a wonderful existence. Where do I sign up?

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  15. ray pepper

    RE: wreckingbull @ 14 – I see the paycheck stubs on the rentals all the time…Recent applicants working Wendys getting 9.63 and averaging 40-42 hours a week with spouse working as CNA at Manor Care on Swing shift at 12.02 working 40-44 hours a week..Together they bring in over 3500 a month…no kids no pets…rent is 800 for a 3 bed 1 bath in Puyallup..nice rambler..both drive older cars and put 1000 a month away in savings..Have 9000 saved up but not wanting to buy a for a few more years.

    All it takes is a desire to work and half a brain…

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  16. David Losh

    RE: ray pepper @ 15RE: ray pepper @ 13

    It’s true, our workers for years made more than we did. It just wasn’t important until the Real Estate market imploded.

    You are a nurse so yes, you get paid well. The people who work for us though need to work. The spouses work, some have owned homes, but most aren’t foolish enough to make the same mistake twice.

    I have been a Real Estate booster my entire life, but today?

    You used the term uneducated. Uneducated in what, about what?

    Let’s look at Real Estate and the education we are getting from my very good buddy Glenn Kelman. He was going to be the game changer, but he is hyping Real Estate sales right along with the National Association of Realtors, Lennox Scott, OB Jacobi, and yourself.

    Yeah? Buy worthless Real Estate at inflated prices so some one, any one, can get a commission.

    The video might as well say Glenn Kelman researched it for me, and he knows absolutely nothing about Real Estate. OB, and Lennox, at least have some generational insight into the business.

    So Ray, I think you are selling us all something, nothing more, but we are getting close to seeing how wrong you are.

    I also sit, and listen to the blathering nonsense of people who have “invested” in Real Estate the past five years, like you very good buddy corndogs, but you never count your money until the dealing is done.

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  17. wreckingbull

    RE: ray pepper @ 15 – If your best-case, student-debt-free, childless couple ever loses a job which provides health insurance and/or has a medical emergency which is not covered, they are cooked. But who cares, because we got ours, right?

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  18. Ira Sacharoff

    By Erik @ 8:

    RE: ray pepper @ 7
    I totally agree. I scored, but after reading your comments, I realized I should have drug out a foreclosure as opposed to short selling. I could have made a lot more money. I was scared of tax repercussions if I waited too long to foreclose. When I short sold there were no taxes to be paid. Oh well… live and l earn I guess.

    Your comment will most likely get thumbs down, but I gave you a thumbs up because that is the right financial decision. Buy for little down. When it no longer meets your needs, give it back. It is the new American way. :-)

    You are advanced ray. Most people here are basic. They think you still need to save 20 percent down and go down with the ship if you house devalues. Not sure where they learned that, but I once heard that was the way our ancestors did it that way.

    Ray is advanced? You weren’t supposed to reveal this information. They will be coming to get you now, along with wreckingbull’s goon squad. But since the secret is already out, Ray is indeed advanced. He’s from an advanced civilization from the future, where extraterrestrials have mated with humans. Just look at the guy and tell me that’s a human being:)

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