Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

14 responses to “Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slowed Slightly in June”

  1. softwarengineer

    They Want $15/hr Minimum Wage to Afford Seattle High Rents

    The problem is if they get $15/hr, the hrs/wk will be cut from 28 to 22….what good what it do.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  2. Dave0

    Thank goodness the YoY growth is starting to decline. I hope that trend continues. As we learned over the past 10 years, 10%+ YoY growth is not sustainable. I hope that number gets back to around 5% where it belongs.

    And no this is not a sign of another bubble bursting, it is simply a stabilization. We’ve fixed the broken down car on the side of the road, accelerated back up to freeway speeds, now we’re setting cruise control.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 5

  3. softwarengineer

    RE: Dave0 @ 2

    Fixed the Broken Cars?

    They say sell your HD and Lowes stock, its priced too high now. Sounds like the broken car fix rate assumption is like buying gold at the wrong time….when it peaked.

    http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/Will-Home-Depot-2526-Lowe2527s-Get/8/8/2013/id/51226

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  4. patient

    When prices where down more than 10% a year and more than 1% MoM there wasn’t really much talk of an end to free fall. Prices are still going up with bubble speed. We ca talk about a moderation/stabilization when prices increase with CPI. For now, it’s still bubble version 2 in full swing.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 5

  5. MS

    How can an average of 2% MOM growth be considered slowdown?
    That 2% MOM is equivalent to a 30% YOY growth.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  6. MS

    Tim,
    Is there a way to expose yourself to the real estate market (upside and downside) without purchasing a house. I thought of the Vanguard REIT index (VNQ) but that has not done anything in the last 1 year (flat to negative).

    Thanks for your input.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: MS @ 6
    When you say exposure to the real estate market, what market are you referring to?
    There are REITS that have most of their investment tied up in apartments. Some in retail development, some industrial, office buildings, etc. Senior housing and nursing home REITs. College student housing REITs., etc With the talk of rising interest rates, REITS have taken a beating lately, so it might be a good time to buy. There are some very well managed, solid REITS out there. Realty Income, ticker symbol “O” has been around a long time, and raises their dividend every year. It’s considered as solid a REIT as there is( and I’d certainly go with something like that over a REIT index fund, because in this case, I think you’d be exposing yourself to more risk in an index fund because the index fund is also investing in weaker, less proven REITS, just because they’re REITs.)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  8. David Losh

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 7

    Great comment, because all REITs are not created equally.

    I would also be concerned about hedge funds who decided to package REITs as a way of having less exposure to a Real Estate down turn.

    It depends on what you mean by exposure. I have partnered with some people over the years, and some group of people.

    If you combine some small investments together it is possible to build a portfolio, and maybe individual portfolios. Many people in the Asian community do this. They in a way, or LLC, become a REIT for themselves.

    Ask Ray, to read some of his comments I would think he has done this.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. whatsmyname

    According to the case-shiller chart, if you had bought a house in LA in 2000, your house would currently have clearly higher appreciation than a Seattle house had at the market’s peak. What do you make of that?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. pfft

    By patient @ 4:

    When prices where down more than 10% a year and more than 1% MoM there wasn’t really much talk of an end to free fall. Prices are still going up with bubble speed. We ca talk about a moderation/stabilization when prices increase with CPI. For now, it’s still bubble version 2 in full swing.

    keep in mind we are coming off an unprecedented collapse.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  11. David Losh

    RE: whatsmyname @ 9

    You are correct, and I’m grateful!

    The rest of the country not so much, but the Metro areas seem to be doing very well, in part I think, because of foreign investments.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. T4Man

    I read an article concerning Redfin producing a report of current contract activity that shows the Case-Shiller index is months behind. The current numbers show a 19.3% price increase YOY. http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/lee-adler/house-prices-rising-faster-than-case-shiller-says

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. Dave0

    RE: MS @ 5 – 2% MoM isn’t the same as 30% YoY bercause May to June is a relatively strong month seasonally. I doubt we will see 2% MoM growth after the summer.

    RE: MS @ 6 – REITs are a good way to get exposure, but as Ira said nearly every REIT is different. There are two major categories of REITs: those that actually own and lease real estate, and those that buy and sell mortgages. I own some REITs that own real estate, but stay away from mortgage REITs like the plague. When interest rates rise those mortgage REITs are going to crash. I own shares in OLP, WSR, GGP, and RSE and they’ve all been good investments with a nice dividend.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. Dave0

    RE: T4Man @ 12 – Tim could probably speak better to this, since he probably helped create the “Redfin Real-Time Price Tracker,” but I’m guessing that Redfin doesn’t account for a changing mix of sales. Case Shiller is very strict about measuring only repeat sales of the same home in order to isolate the change in price due to time and not due to the changing quality of the median house. That is why it takes them two months to analyze the market before publishing the stats. It doesn’t look like Redfin is doing that with this index.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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