Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

83 responses to “Guess the Price Round 7: West Seattle Almost-Beach”

  1. nize

    $521,965 by october 31.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. Dave0

    $530,000, closing October 15th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. wreckingbull

    $540K. Closes in 67 days from now.

    Addendum:

    Cons:

    – Fart-can Honda Civics
    – 1000 Watt subwoofer thump
    – Meathead brawls

    Pros:

    – Wintertime at Alki

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. wreckingbull

    By the way, no offstreet parking in this neighborhood is a serious problem. There is a reason that this is being listed the last week of summer. I missed that. 510K. (since edit is broken)

    Tim, can you look into broken edit? It just hangs with Firefox. I need edit so that I can soften my replys to corndogs and not hurt his fragile ego.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  5. KCJ

    $523, 750 – closing on 10/23/2013

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. SS

    $529,000, closing on Oct. 30th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. Tim McB

    535k closing on Oct 25th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. Oof

    $524k closing on 11/7

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. softwarengineer

    Wood Decks in Seattle are So Out-dated Now

    Everything like that is primarily going cement now….wood is a joke in our wet climate.

    The deck shown may be that new plastic wood laminate[?]…..another joke, it cracks from ultra-violet…cement is king….

    $520K closing Nov 15, 2013

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. Glaciers

    $515,000

    Closes October 31

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. FWIW

    A big con for me; no bus service to speak of, and it’s a very long hike up the hill to a grocery. So, car required for even the most trivial purchases.
    $515,000 – just before Thanksgiving, say 11/18.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  12. wreckingbull

    RE: The Tim @ 5 – Thanks, I’ll try to edit this post.

    [Edit] Works!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. kdogg

    $518,000. 11/1/2013

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. nwbackpacker

    $520k 9/25/2013

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. Erik

    $515,000 closes November 1st Thanks for the help chugach

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. Peter Witting

    $535,000 closing october 15th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. Ira Sacharoff

    This is not my guess, as I’m not permitted to make one. It is from someone who is not in the real estate industry, and who I will make sure receives the gift certificate should she win:
    524,000 on 10/18/2013

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. Steve

    525k closing on October 17th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. nize

    cons:
    -no parking
    -1 bathroom for a half million dollar house, seriously?
    -lots of condos across the street (no parking)
    -by alki point (longest possible commute)
    -no backyard
    -drunk people at all hours of the night (if you like to sleep)
    -did i mention no parking?

    pros:
    -some benefits of a beach house without the maintenance that comes with living right on the beach
    -drunk people at all hours of the night (if you like to party)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  20. Erik

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18
    Your dog can’t vote.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. LMaS

    Lots of comments when a $25 gift card is on the line ;) I’ll go with $508,000 on October 25th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. ChrisM

    Because I’m a jerk, $515,000 closes November 2nd. As a kid I watched Price is Right, and wondered why more contestants didn’t game the system.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. Raisinpaw

    540k. Close 10/18/13.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. Jacob Beaty

    5k over list closes in 60 days

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  25. Jose

    $ 495,000.
    Close: October 15th

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. Ira Sacharoff

    By Erik @ 21:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18
    Your dog can’t vote.

    Tell that to my dog. She picks better candidates than most of the voters do.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  27. Erik

    RE: The Tim @ 22
    Ha ha. They just got mad because she proved the system is flawed. They should praise her for showing that the system is flawed. Instead they charge her with a crime. Crazy.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  28. whynot

    $485,000
    Pending: November 28
    Sold: December 15

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  29. toad37

    Let’s go for 526k, closing on 10/15/13

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  30. David Losh

    Both of my dogs are pretty excited about this property, and think it will sell all cash at $510K and close in a week. They probably already have the offer in hand and are waiting for something better.

    Just kidding, my dogs don’t really care. I wanted to see if the edit button was working. It does!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  31. Astro Kermit

    $520,000 closing middle of November.

    They are including the unfinished basement. So $ / square foot is probably going to go beyond $260. This home will face appraisal challenges from the lender so the buyer will cover out of pocket the differences ($20k +), hence the delay to the middle of November. Also the fact that this is being covered on Seattle Bubble will attract more attention but also sway potential buyers away when they read our comments :-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  32. Oof

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18 – Nice – she stole my number…..

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  33. Mike

    500k
    November 15th

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  34. David B.

    RE: FWIW @ 12 – “So, car required for even the most trivial purchases.”

    And not only that, no off-street parking in a neighborhood where on-street parking is very difficult to find for part of the year! Still bet it will sell for a fairly good price, however: some folks are willing to shell out and overlook drawbacks to be close to the beach. (And they can have that property, thank you very much.)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  35. Beau

    $510,000 October 18.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  36. UrbanDweller

    $512,000 – Nov. 19th

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  37. mike

    Anyone notice the vacant lot next door changed hands last year…?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  38. jld

    508K, Oct 27th

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  39. Astro Kermit

    By mike @ 39:

    Anyone notice the vacant lot next door changed hands last year…?

    Interesting. Vacant but the garage to the alley way is still there.

    Address is:
    3021 64th Ave SW Seattle, WA 98116

    Redfin link: http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3021-64th-Ave-SW-98116/home/150436

    No permits have been filed so there is nothing immediate on the horizon in terms of construction.

    http://web1.seattle.gov/DPD/permitstatus/default.aspx

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  40. David Losh

    RE: Astro Kermit @ 41

    Those garages may be worth more than the houses.

    Garage codes may have changed since these were built, and if you tear them down you may not be permitted for anything better.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  41. Astro Kermit

    RE: David Losh @ 42

    You mind sharing some more info on that? I’m in a situation where I plan on building a garage into my alley.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  42. David B.

    RE: Erik @ 29 – One of the basic rules of the civil disobedience strategy is “don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time.” In other words, research what the penalties for whatever law you’re choosing to break are likely to be, and decide if you’re willing to accept them. It *is* unlawful, after all.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  43. David B.

    RE: softwarengineer @ 10 – I quibble with the terminology you use. If it’s concrete, I call it a “patio” not a “deck”.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  44. Eden

    I’ll guess 511,500 Pending September 27th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  45. nize

    By Astro Kermit @ 41:

    By mike @ 39:
    Anyone notice the vacant lot next door changed hands last year…?

    Interesting. Vacant but the garage to the alley way is still there.

    Address is:
    3021 64th Ave SW Seattle, WA 98116

    Redfin link: http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3021-64th-Ave-SW-98116/home/150436

    No permits have been filed so there is nothing immediate on the horizon in terms of construction.

    http://web1.seattle.gov/DPD/permitstatus/default.aspx

    there is no garage in the alleyway, you are looking at the property two doors down which has a house and a garage;
    http://info.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/eRealProperty/Dashboard.aspx?ParcelNbr=0151000030

    the empty lot immediately next door is still empty and looks like it was never developed;
    http://info.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/eRealProperty/Dashboard.aspx?ParcelNbr=0151000025

    of course that doesn’t mean it won’t be developed, just that it’s currently vacant land.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  46. KKyle

    $512 closes 10/20

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  47. David Losh

    RE: Astro Kermit @ 43

    Here is the Department of Design and Development Code. Look at page 5 Exceptions to Standard Yard Requirements. http://www.seattle.gov/dpd/publications/cam/cam220.pdf

    It allows existing structures.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  48. Astro Kermit

    Thanks David!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  49. mike

    By Erik @ 29:

    RE: The Tim @ 22
    Ha ha. They just got mad because she proved the system is flawed. They should praise her for showing that the system is flawed. Instead they charge her with a crime. Crazy.

    I’m not sure breaking the law simply because it’s difficult to enforce is a good excuse. You do realize it’s exceptionally hard to prove someone is stalking and harassing you until they are actually caught committing another crime in the process ? Based on your interpretation, it’s OK to engage in this behavior because it’s merely pointing out a flaw in the system.

    Come to think of it, if you’re seriously considering renting out your condo you should watch the movie Pacific Heights. I’d like to hear your take on “pointing out a flaw in the system” if you ended up with a tenant like the main character.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  50. David Losh

    RE: mike @ 51

    Yesterday I was talking with a woman who owns a house in LA that they rent out. The guy got 8 months behind on his rent payments, and just got up to being three months behind.

    They were asking what to do, and I said evict him. Better yet they could sell there, and pay off the house they live in, and still have some money left over to buy a little place here, in Tacoma.

    They are weighing the decision, but it used to be good until it got bad.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  51. Andrew

    $500K-ish, sometime in October or November!

    Yes, I’m still stupidly bear-ish and still hope there’s a correction happening soon…. :(

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  52. Erik

    RE: mike @ 51
    Once she actually got the ballot, she wrote void on it to show them how that the someone could easily sign their dog up and double vote. No harm was done. She got in trouble anyway because she made them look like fools.

    This isn’t my first time renting a residence out. I’m not sure what pacific heights is. I just get the standard documents for them to sign and check their background. I may just have someone rent it for me to avoid the hassle if I have large enough of a cash flow I will sell if I can make over $100k. I think I will make over $100k unless the market dumps like Matthew indicated earlier.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  53. Jonness

    I assess this dump at $475K, but I suspect some idiot will pay as much as $502 for it around Dec, 1st.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  54. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: Erik @ 54
    Pacific Heights is an awesome movie, with Michael Keaton playing the tenant from hell. Well worth seeing.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  55. mike

    RE: Erik @ 53 The issue was she signed documentation on behalf of someone that was incapable of giving legal consent for her to do so (dog).

    on point #2 http://lmgtfy.com/?q=pacific+heights

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  56. Lo Ball Jones

    You could spin your wheels with Seattle Real Estate psychopathy.

    Or, you could take a trip…to the good life…in Gillette, Wyoming!

    Feast your eyes on this 5 bedroom, 3 full bath, 1,920 sqft Home!

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3127011716-30-Independence-Dr-Gillette-WY-82716#photo-5

    Price? $213,400 !

    Or this sweet “Mt. Adams” Craftsman…3 bedrooms for $204,600! A bit ‘o Old Seattle at a price that inspires!

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3101284360-508-Kilkenny-Cir-Gillette-WY-82716#photo-15

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  57. softwarengineer

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 58

    I’ve Lived In Seattle All My Life

    Before it got barraged with “out-of-staters” [mostly California] and they mowed all the trees down from the 60s and 70s. IMO, the California developers took over the King County Planning Councils too….why else would they vote to add unlimited homes to already clogged freeway accesses the last four decades? The east coast would never have allowed this over-building zoning nonsense.

    I imagine most of the “out-of-staters” King County Council members live in the Seattle city limits, not the suburbs, where they are immune from the excessive building on clogged freeway entrances. They even vote to put all their sewage treatment plants in the suburbs too.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  58. Blurtman

    $540,000, and torn down for apodment.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  59. David B.

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 58 – “Or, you could take a trip…to the good life…in Gillette, Wyoming! ”

    And enjoy the sophisticated culture, varied selection of job opportunities, and mild agreeable climate.

    Oh, wait…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  60. Ted

    $498,750 closes December 28th – seems ridiculous for a 2 bedroom in West Seattle even if it is close to Alki but I’d bet some sucker will pay it.

    Based on the King County Records the property next door and the next two beyond that (3021 and 3023) are all owned by the same two owners (looks like brothers). All three properies changed hands via quit claim deed estate settlement in 2012. Development seems smart and likely in the not too distant future. Haven’t checked the zoning so I have no idea what can be built.

    With that said, this property is empty, which made me wonder. Turns out, by looking at King County property details, and tax records it looks like the current owner is living (renting) out of state. Linkedin reveals they have had that job out of state since 2006. It makes me wonder if the house has just been rented out since then. The kitchen is dated, the floors look like they need work. In general, it looks worn but it also looks like the RE agent made every effort to spruce up the images.

    My guess is that the owner wants to sell so they can buy in their new location. Their renter finally moved out so they are getting it on the market a little late in the season but they are still feeling a little greedy because their new location is expensive. They still have a mortgage of some sort so they probably don’t want to let it sit empty too long. They will probably come down slightly on the price as the weeks go by.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  61. mike

    RE: Ted @ 62 – I noticed that as well with the adjacent lots. Kind of amazing someone held on to a vacant plot in such a prime location for so long – unless they were waiting for some up-zoning to really take advantage of it.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  62. Erik

    RE: The Tim @ 63RE: Ted @ 62
    Ted must really be hungry to go out to dinner at a restaurant. He really wants that gift certificate. If I win, I will donate my certificate to Ted. It sounds like he needs it more than I do. I went out to dinner at a restaurant just last week.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  63. ChrisM

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 58 – Out of perverse curiosity, can you outline your region selection criteria? Your prior selections have nothing in common w/ PNW weather for instance. Is there something I’m missing? Up next: housing is cheap in the rust belt??

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  64. Tim McB

    RE: Ted @ 62

    Ted nice analysis and it’s scary how much info that can be learned with just a simple internet search. Speaking of which on researching the brother owners of the properties to the south I figured I’d find a link to a residential or commercial developer’s website. However, I found this instead:

    http://westseattleblog.com/2012/11/west-seattle-crime-watch-sons-charged-with-mistreating-elderly-father

    My guess is that with their legal troubles the properties won’t be developed any time soon. It may also explain why it hasn’t been developed yet. What’s sad is that it seems that a fair amount of it had to do with property/money. Property rich, morally poor.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  65. Astro Kermit

    That is just horrible. The city should just take that land away from them and convert it into a park. It would be good to track these people so potential investors shy away. They don’t deserve a single penny.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  66. Lo Ball Jones

    By David B. @ 61:

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 58 – “Or, you could take a trip to the good lifein Gillette, Wyoming! ”

    And enjoy the sophisticated culture, varied selection of job opportunities, and mild agreeable climate.

    Oh, wait

    I live in the 21st century.

    99.9 percent of my entertainment comes from the Internet, TV, shopping malls and work.

    Given that, why not buy into the lowest cost place possible.

    Some place that is not crowded and tax-heavy and lets me drive my car to where I want to go.

    Gillette, Wyoming fits the bill!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  67. mike

    RE: Tim McB @ 67 – UGH. In that case, $425K, closing October 20th.

    Not just 1, but 2 horrible neighbors, no thanks.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  68. shaggy

    $489,000 closing November 5th.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  69. Azucar

    $490,000, December 3

    (sorry to box you in on the upper side, Shaggy)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  70. David B.

    RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 69 – Nice try, but “culture” encompasses more than just entertainment options, and you completely ignored the other two items on my list.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  71. Anna

    My first reply here… and my guess is:
    $468,850 Close Nov 29th

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  72. ggrraahhaamm

    $528,000, closes October 23
    Just a guess anyway.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  73. Scott

    Mmm…just lowered price to $499,000

    No “Tim effect” unfortunately for this owner…I’ve noticed a lot more reductions lately…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  74. nize

    it’s not selling because it took 2 months for the (inflated) price to drop 5% which likely means the seller is not very motivated.

    meanwhile, inventory is catching up;
    3209 63rd Ave SW
    Seattle, WA 98116
    $349,000
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3209-63rd-Ave-SW-98116/home/151466

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  75. tooklongenough

    Well, it finally sold. And none of us win!
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3015-64th-Ave-SW-98116/home/150435

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  76. nize

    wow, i thought this game would never end. :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  77. Macro Investor

    Wow. Someone actually paid $451k for a 100 year old, 1400 square foot, 1 bathroom house with zero yard. Enjoy being cramped and uncomfortable, with your noisy neighbors breathing down your neck.

    This qualifies as the worst decision ever made. The only way it could get worse would be if there was no parking in an insanely crowded place like West Seattle. Oh wait…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  78. Guess the Price Round 7: We (Finally) Have a Winner! • Seattle Bubble

    […] back in September we launched our latest price-guessing contest: Guess the Price Round 7: West Seattle Almost-Beach. Forty readers made guesses this round before the contest […]

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

Leave a Reply

Do you want a nifty avatar picture next to your name, instead of a photograph of Tim's dog? Just sign up with Gravatar, and make sure to use the same email address in the form below. It's that easy!

Please read the rules before posting a comment.

You have 4 comments remaining on this post.

Archives

Find us on Google+