Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

24 responses to “Foreclosures Inched Up in August, But Down From 2012”

  1. Lo Ball Jones

    Like the first tiny waves before the tsunami.

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  2. softwarengineer

    Washington Household Incomes Generally Above $100K?

    Not according to this real estate website, 18 Sep 2013 Data:

    “…In terms of income for the households of Washington, it is a very average state, with a median household income of around $45,000…”

    http://www.foreclosurelistings.com/list/WA/

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  3. mike

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – Has anyone ever asserted that they were?

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  4. Erik

    RE: mike @ 3
    SWE made something up and then proved it wrong. This isn’t the first time I have seen him do this.

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  5. Brad

    Washington incomes not high, but local Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, 9th highest region in country…

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2013/09/17/americas-richest-and-poorest-cities-by-median-household-income/

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 -

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  6. Lo Ball Jones

    By Brad @ 5:

    Washington incomes not high, but local Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, 9th highest region in country…

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2013/09/17/americas-richest-and-poorest-cities-by-median-household-income/

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 -

    Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
    $64,188

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  7. Lo Ball Jones

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2

    If I actually logged in to view those…would I find anything worthwhile.

    Or just a bunch of properties that are bank owned, and would never hit the market, and if they did would be bid up by agents and auctions and if not they would be taken off the market?

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  8. ChrisM

    I love Redfin’s ability to look at foreclosed houses. There are 457 foreclosed houses in King County that have sat for more than 180 days. The oldest was foreclosed in Sep 2010 and is held by FNM. Yeah, shadow inventory is a myth.

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Federal-Way/33707-38th-Pl-SW-98023/home/354675

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  9. Mike

    RE: ChrisM @ 8 – this appears to be a data error. The house had a second NTS issued in 2012 with the same borrower name and that sale was discontinued in July. My best guess is the trustee deed in 2010 was improperly filed. This is kind of unusual to see, but it doesn’t appear that the house is actually bank owned. Definitely something odd going on there though.

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  10. ChrisM

    RE: Mike @ 9 – Hmm, county records say FNM, and the tax bills are going to them. Where do you see different?
    http://info.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/eRealProperty/Dashboard.aspx?ParcelNbr=9211510220

    One hopes if there is in fact an error, Linda Praisner (who signed the affadavit in Sep 2010) is charged with perjury. I can dream, can’t I?

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  11. mike

    RE: ChrisM @ 10 – Seach the recorded documents using the parcel # and you’ll see what I’m referring to. It’s definitely weird, I haven’t seen anything like this before.

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  12. softwarengineer

    RE: mike @ 3RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 6

    Yes

    They said $300K+ homes sell in Seattle well because $100K household incomes [minimum qualifying] are plentiful among home buyers.

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  13. softwarengineer

    RE: Brad @ 5

    Another Pipe Dream Brad

    The top 20% of incomes skew your average home buyer income assumptions way up….almost all of this elite crowd already bought a house and aren’t in the market…..ask Ira the realtor.

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  14. softwarengineer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 13

    Seattle is the $5 Starbucks Land Where the Top 20% Household Incomes Can Maybe Afford the Rent and Mortgages

    The bottom 80% [most of the Seattle area buyer market] should move to Kansas with my smart daughter and lease option to purchase a nice rambler for $600/mo. Hades, she’ll do find working P/T and won’t get a stroke [like my Latina friend's Seattle brain surgeon stated] from working two scarce Seattle jobs. She moved to Dallas to get rid of her $1500/mo Seattle apartment rent this Summer….had to come back to Seattle a few wekks ago to get another stroke brain operation, this time the doctors said it was moving stress related.

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  15. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: softwarengineer @ 13
    It is said that 300k dollar homes sell well because 100k dollar incomes are plentiful in the Seattle area among home buyers. It’s true because if the median household income in the Seattle area is 65k ish, that means there’s an equal number of households below that and above that. Households with incomes below 65k are mostly not the people buying homes in the Seattle area. That includes people on Social Security( who might own a home but aren’t moving), shipping clerks, waitpersons, bus drivers, etc. People who could afford to own homes in other areas are priced out in Seattle. So the people who make more money are the ones buying houses. The median household income among people buying homes is much higher than the 65k median income overall, because houses cost a lot. I would disagree that the “elite crowd” isn’t buying houses. In fact, quite the opposite. Just because they own a perfectly nice house is not a reason to not buy another one, or a different one. When you have lots of money, there’s more of a pressure to keep up with the Joneses. And as people make more, they’re no longer content with what satisfied them when they made 40k less per year. Which is why people who make a lot of money often don’t have any. Poor people don’t have money to spend. Rich people spend a lot. You can’t live in Medina in an 800 sq ft house built in the 1940′s. You can’t drive a 20 year old Chevy. What would the neighbors say?

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  16. mike

    By softwarengineer @ 12:

    RE: mike @ 3RE: Lo Ball Jones @ 6

    Yes

    They said $300K+ homes sell in Seattle well because $100K household incomes [minimum qualifying] are plentiful among home buyers.

    This isn’t a coherent argument.

    Most people with Washington incomes are not Seattle home buyers. Of the much smaller group that have recently bought in the City of Seattle or are actively looking to buy in the next year or two, it would follow that they’re more often in the higher income group because the prices are higher. That has nothing to do with people that would rather pay less to live in Kansas.

    “Most of the bottom 80%” aren’t going to buy here – but probably by a slim margin. I’d say over time, close to half of the bottom 80% will end up buying here – just not at age 22 working a part time job.

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  17. softwarengineer

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 15

    Sorry Ira

    I’m in that top 20% and the 10-15% YOY gains I get in the stock market are better than a $50K Infiniti sitting in the driveway with a 6 year loan to impress the neighbors [let alone a huge out-flow for Seattle real estate....ask Buffet, he still owns his original cheap home and car too....that's how ya get rich].

    I’m not alone, most savvy investors think like me and Buffet too. If I’m not right, why do we need MASSIVE government welfare to the middle class in the form of $1 TRILLION/yr debt QEs keeping mortgage interest down [for mostly debt infused buyers, not savvy investors]?….if you’re right let’s end the debt QEs, its a moot point….LOL

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  18. wreckingbull

    RE: softwarengineer @ 14 – You don’t have to go to Kansas to find affordable housing. In fact, that would likely be one of the last places I would go. The West is chock full of smaller cities in which one can still live on modest means. Take Spokane, for example. Yes, we like to mock it over here on the ‘coast’, but it is a decent place to live with plenty of recreational options. Priest Lake, Coeur d’alene, and Pend Oreille are all close. The downtown is getting a nice makeover, and it seems Kendall Yards has finally found footing. I’ll likely end up there.

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  19. Ira Sacharoff

    By softwarengineer @ 17:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 15

    Sorry Ira

    I’m in that top 20% and the 10-15% YOY gains I get in the stock market are better than a $50K Infiniti sitting in the driveway with a 6 year loan to impress the neighbors [let alone a huge out-flow for Seattle real estate….ask Buffet, he still owns his original cheap home and car too….that’s how ya get rich].

    I’m not alone, most savvy investors think like me and Buffet too. If I’m not right, why do we need MASSIVE government welfare to the middle class in the form of $1 TRILLION/yr debt QEs keeping mortgage interest down [for mostly debt infused buyers, not savvy investors]?….if you’re right let’s end the debt QEs, its a moot point….LOL

    I don’t think you’re typical. Most of the other top 20% have a lifestyle to keep up. Buffet’s a notorious cheapskate, something I share with him too. I just can’t see how having a fancy expensive house in a sought out area would make me happy. Or the Infiniti in the driveway. I like money, but I prefer keeping some of it around.
    And they can do away with QE anytime, as far as I’m concerned.

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  20. Erik

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 19
    I love living in a nicer area and spending more money. I’m sure you all have more money than me. I like my expensive gym membership and I like to go out to eat and drink beers. To me, being rich is buying expensive beers like Ira told me he does. Not having money is like being in jail. My friends go do stuff and i’m stuck at home because I cannot afford it when I don’t have money. These days I’m able to afford to do fun stuff on the weekends, and it does make me much happier. Maybe your level of having money is higher than mine?
    I like buying nice clothes too. All these things make me feel a little better. I drive a 2000 nissan frontier with 260k miles on it. I think out of all the things that make me happy, the car isn’t worth the expense, so I spend my money on the other things i listed above. I don’t get that much happiness out of a nice car. I wear my clothes 18 hours per day. I drive 1 hour per day, but I am wearing my clothes still. That is 17 hours more net usage out of my clothes per given day.

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  21. Erik

    RE: softwarengineer @ 17
    When I spend more money, I have more fun. Being frugal is great, but being a cheapskate limits your fun and experiences in life. Don’t take your money to the grave. Spend it while you still can and go have fun. Buy cars, clothes, vacations, etc. and go have fun. Don’t you like to have fun? Don’t those things make you happy?

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  22. ChrisM

    RE: ChrisM @ 10 – For fun, the oldest one in Seattle proper appears to be 1050 days old, however their data appears incorrect (Zillow, take note):

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3109-S-Dakota-St-98108/home/171976

    Redfin states the property is owned by “PRIME PACIFIC BANK NA” but tax records don’t indicate a foreclosure. I’m thinking an enterprising reporter could make a really good story out of this… Who is wrong?

    The next oldest property in Seattle is:
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3507-S-Genesee-St-98118/home/172060

    This is a truly odd property – it appears from the county that King county is not correctly recording foreclosure activity.
    http://info.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/eRealProperty/Detail.aspx?ParcelNbr=1604600710

    Can someone more knowledgeable than me confirm? It seems a lot of really weird stuff is going on… I suspect a thorough review of all foreclosed properties older than 365 days would be quite interesting…

    PS – a legit shadow property is
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/9012-2nd-Ave-S-98108/home/477527
    held by Mellon for 535 days (Nov 2011).

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  23. Azucar

    RE: softwarengineer @ 17

    Buffett does own his home in Omaha that he bought a lot of years ago… but he drives a Cadillac CTS (something like 6 or 7 years old… he had a Lincoln Towncar before that I think) and also owns a private jet. He buys things to be comfortable and make his life easier. My guess is that it wouldn’t take too many occurrences of that “aging” CTS leaving him by the side of the highway or stuck in a parking lot waiting for a jump start before he splashed out for a new one.

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  24. Erik

    RE: wreckingbull @ 18
    Coeur d’alene isn’t that cheap anymore. At one point, it was the fastest growing city in the united states back in the 90s if I remember correctly. My grandpa was an aerospace executive back in the 50′s and 60′s. Anyway, he bought and developed a lot of property around Lake Coeur d’alene. He made a fortune because he held onto a lot of it. He died several years ago. My dad sold a dumpy little cabin around Lake Coeur d’alene for $360k. I have land handed down to me around Lake Coeur d’alene that I am waiting to appreciate so I develop it and sell it. I’m the guy you need to talk to in order to have a nice house on Lake Coeur d’alene. Too bad you are rude to me daily. At this point, I wouldn’t let you camp out on my property.
    You seem more Kingston style anyway. You should move there, you would fit it better.

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