Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

10 responses to “Eastside Homes Get More Expensive, Sell More”

  1. Erik

    Great, the Eastside is out of control. Maybe I will be able to retire early after I offload my Eastside condo.

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  2. corndogs

    http://www.redfin.com/county/118/WA/King-County
    http://www.redfin.com/county/2/WA/Snohomish-County
    http://www.redfin.com/county/2/WA/Pierce-County

    What was that guys name who said prices were going to tank following July/August? Matthew? Yeah, it was Matthew! Hey Matthew, talk to me dummy. Why does Redfin show King/Pierce/Snoh prices continuing to escalate into September? Weren’t we supposed to mark your words? Looks like you got some ‘splaining to do! I see the sale/list ratio is still around 100% and inventories are making their seasonal drops. What’s going on Maddy? Is there an explanation for this or are you just the latest SeattleBubble tard to get Corndogs boot in the a$$.

    Even Corndog expects some seasonal corrections but this is ridiculous. This September out-performing last September!? Do you have a new prediction date for the Armageddon Maddy? I’m starting to think that you’re a Jehovahs witness. If you are let me give you a hint for your next Sermon. The book of Matthew is no longer valid!

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  3. Erik

    I said this…
    “RE: David Losh @ 11 –
    Do you see this curve?
    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2013/05/24/low-rates-prop-up-affordable-home-price/

    It seem very probable to me that the median home price will catch up to the affordable home price as it has in the past. This means a temporary accelerated housing price increase. After the median home price catches up with the affordable home price, housing prices should increase as they have in the past.

    You are getting caught up in the fear and suggesting the these rules have changed permanently and people will no longer buy what they can afford in the future. That doesn’t make any sense to me and I don’t see how you can come to a different conclusion.

    The affordable home price line will perhaps slightly decrease in slope, but nothing like you are claiming it will. I heard about 1% a year of increased interest rates. That shouldn’t have a large effect on housing prices.

    You asked for it and I just proved you wrong. There is not absolute proof, but that seems to be a very likely scenario. Much more likely than you claiming economics have suddenly changed and this is not longer valid.”

    I got 0 thumbs up and 6 thumbs down.

    Matthew said this…
    “Erik,

    That might have been the biggest epic fail of a conclusion ever. This entire market is only hanging on because the Fed has provided liquidity. There is no real recovery in the economy, stock market, or housing. This is all part of an echo bubble created by the Fed in one final attempt to make the banks whole before the final bag holders are hung out to dry. If there was a real recovery why would the equity markets fall so dramatically just on the mere thought the Fed may begin tapering its asset purchases?

    If you think the current situation remotely resembles anything in the past 50 years you are going to be in for a rude awakening.

    The top is in my friend GTFO of this market while you still can.”

    Matthew got 7 thumbs up and 1 thumb down from readers.

    He made another similar comment about “the top being in, sell now!” He got 12 thumbs up and no thumbs down.

    The people that rate these comments are morons. Corndogs always gets same amount of thumbs up and thumbs down no matter what he says. Corndogs is correct so far and Matthew is wrong.

    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2013/06/20/seattle-area-adds-more-jobs-unemployment-dips-below-5/

    I don’t expect anyone to change their ways, but this is pretty conclusive evidence that the thumbs up go to dumb people and thumbs down go to smart people.

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  4. Sarah

    RE: corndogs @ 2 – You should ask your realtor and mortgage loan friends, and they probably will tell you that they’re afraid of losing their jobs soon! Most of them have been enjoying their free time for more than a month already.

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  5. whatsmyname

    Ira, Are you afraid of losing your job soon? That seems so weird in a year where each month’s sales have been better than the same month in any of the previous 5 years. Except August, of course, where they were better than the last 6 years.

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  6. whatsmyname

    Tim,
    Instead of two graphs that show the % of King County SFR sales by nwmls area, wouldn’t it add more value to have one of those graphs show the # of King County SFR sales by nwmls area?

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  7. Lo Ball Jones

    Does it make sense to look at total price?

    Most people base their decision on payment…and that reflects interest rates as well as principal.

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  8. Ira Sacharoff

    By whatsmyname @ 5:

    Ira, Are you afraid of losing your job soon? That seems so weird in a year where each month’s sales have been better than the same month in any of the previous 5 years. Except August, of course, where they were better than the last 6 years.

    I’m not worried about losing my job soon, but that has very little to do with the real estate market.
    When things are booming, there are a lot more real estate agents, and when the real estate market crashes, real estate agents leave the industry and go and get real jobs. But very few of them ” get fired”. The large brokerages like Windermere and John L Scott do fire agents, because those brokerages spend a lot of money and need agents to deliver results, which is why they have agents telemarket. But many brokerages don’t spend anywhere near the money that the biggies do. They charge a certain amount per month from their agents, so while they would prefer agents who made lots of money, they get most of their expenses covered by the monthly fees the agents pay. If things are going that badly, the agent will leave the industry or affiliate with a less expensive brokerage.
    And then I always seem to do the opposite of what the industry is doing. At the top of the market six years ago, very little business was coming my way. Partly because everybody and their uncle was a real estate agent. My best year was 2011, the bottom of the market. Maybe because a lot of agents had already dropped out?
    In any event, I think I read somewhere that 20% of the agents do 90% of the business. It doesn’t make them good agents or bad agent, just agents with more business.

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  9. Blurtman

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 8:

    By whatsmyname @ 5:

    “And then I always seem to do the opposite of what the industry is doing. At the top of the market six years ago, very little business was coming my way.”

    I heard that CNBC was using the Ira indicator as a contra-indictor of the RE market. So how about some inside info? Is it skiing in Gstaad this winter, or touring the fast food scene in Seatac?

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  10. David Losh

    What the heck, it’s Saturday morning, and I’ve got our last outdoor project being completed, and I have to wait around to pay the guys, so I’ll just say that:

    2011 was the top of the market, the market began to cool, again, so the Fed forced a situation where interest rates took a 1% drop. That started the stampede of the sheeple to lock in massive debt, and a low interest rate.

    It’s like the Rent to Own places telling you you have 0% interest, but that couch costs $3K.

    The consumer, who is already heavily in debt from so many things that cost more, but you get less, is now signing up for what used to be a long term appreciating asset, and getting a rent to own deal that is still costing twice the price in interest payments on an inflated price.

    We are a consumer based economy, but the consumer is having difficult financial choices. Every time you think you are getting ahead prices jump on things like gas, or beef, or clothing, cars, Real Estate….

    At some point the consumer has to figure out how do get rid of the massive debt. Will that be in the form of further savings, better investment strategy, or cutting back, and getting onto a budget? Because for sure the prospects of getting a better job, or a second part time job, are fading.

    Something’s gotta give, and it seems that housing is an obvious choice.

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